Archive for January, 2012

Matt Garza’s Trade Value

If there was any question about the valuation that MLB teams put on quality young arms, it’s been answered this winter – the returns garnered by San Diego and Oakland when they moved Mat Latos and Gio Gonzalez illustrated that a team willing to move a good young pitcher under multiple years of team control could do very well for themselves and accelerate a rebuilding process by getting pieces at several positions that could be long term answers. So, given the prices those two arms have commanded, it shouldn’t be a big surprise that Theo Epstein is exploring the market for Matt Garza, looking to see if he can pull off a similar deal to replenish the Cubs organization with the kinds of young players they need to build around for the future.

However, Garza’s a different asset than Latos or Gonzalez, as his longer track record in the big leagues also means that the Cubs are selling a pitcher who is only going to be under team control for half as long as the other two. Additionally, since Garza qualified as a Super-Two, he’s already on his third trip through arbitration, and his salaries have escalated more quickly than most players that are two years away from free agency. So, while the Padres and A’s were marketing four years of a good young pitcher, several of those years at prices that were just a fraction of what similar pitchers would cost to acquire via free agency, the Cubs are shopping two years of a pitcher whose salaries are somewhat depressed relative to his market value, but aren’t really that much lower than what a team could buy a decent free agent starter for.

So, it stands to reason that the Cubs will get less for Garza than what other young arms have been going for this winter. How much less? Well, let’s look at just what kind of trade value Garza should actually have.

Read the rest of this entry »


2011 Venezuela Winter League Pitching Stats

For more on the Venezuelan Winter League, check out Carson Cistulli’s final SCOUT leaderboards for said league.

With the MLB in the middle of its winter hiatus, we of the baseball-addicted must roll our listful eyes towards the winter leagues. One such league is the wildly popular Venezuelan Winter League. It is hard to say what exact level the Venezuelan league constitutes — but it certainly has a few veterans of both leagues, as well as a few MLB guys (though usually nobody who is already well established in the majors).

This year, Chicago Cubs fans have had the delight of being able to keep tabs on their… exciting… pitcher Carlos Zambrano. Big-Z — perhaps in an effort to ingratiate himself with the new Cubs regime, perhaps in a move to showcase his talents to the league — has now pitched five games for the Caribes de Anzoategui, but according to some recent rumors, Zambrano may be calling it a winter.

And maybe he should.
Read the rest of this entry »


Offseason Notes – With Final VWL Leaderboards


Hanley Ramirez knows at least one more language than the author of this post.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. Final (!) SCOUT Leaderboards: Venezuelan Winter League
3. Prospecting: John Sickels’ Top-20 List for San Francisco

Assorted Headlines
Ramirez Fine with Third Base
“Jugaré donde me pongan,” Miami Marlin infielder Hanley Ramirez told the AP’s Dionisio Soldevila on Saturday — which, provided Google Translate isn’t lying, means something to the effect of “I will play where I’m put.” The difference in positional adjustment between shortstop and third base is five runs per 162 defensive games — meaning that, were Ramirez a true-talent 5.0 WAR player at short, he’d be a 4.5 WAR player at third. Of course, that also ignores defensive runs saved (UZR), which is also likely to change (for the better, one would think) with a move to the left side of the defensive spectrum. (Thanks to MLBTR’s Nick Collias for link.)

Read the rest of this entry »


Are the Padres Acquiring the Right Hitters?

Petco Park is hell on hitters. That’s not exactly a groundbreaking revelation. Anyone can look at Petco’s park effects and conclude the park suppresses offense quite a bit. Petco’s park effects are one of the first issues to emerge whenever the Padres make a major signing or acquisition. Analysts are usually quick to point out how the park will affect the new player. The problem with this type of analysis is that the Padres will never “win” a trade in which they acquire a hitter. The Padres cannot simply throw their hands up and surrender on offense. In a park like Petco, however, they have to be careful about what types of hitters they acquire.

Read the rest of this entry »


FAN Projection Targets: AL Central Second Basemen

Today’s Fan Projection Targets focus on a division that sometimes gets a bit less press because of its geographical location and relative weakness. Within that division, it takes a look at a position on the diamond that is itself garners scant attention relative to others on the diamond. The projected starting second basemen of the American League Central are not simply a neglected group in fan projections, however, but are interesting in their own right. Scattered in the debris we have a platoon situation, a couple of interesting not-quite-rookies, and a once-promising prospect trying to get his career back on track. Won’t you share your thoughts on how these players will fare in 2012?

Read the rest of this entry »


Andruw Is Jonesin’ For Pinstripes

It’s been an uncharacteristically slow offseason for the Yankees, at least in terms of bringing in players from other teams. How easily we forget that they gave out the fourth largest pitching contract in baseball history a few weeks ago. The Yankees brought back another one of their 2011 players late last week, agreeing to a one-year deal with Andruw Jones. He’ll earn a $2 million base salary with another $1.4 million available in incentives.

Most of us remember Jones from his days with the Braves, when he was hitting 30+ homers annually and playing a historically great center field, but he hasn’t been that player in five calendar years now. He’s effectively carved out a second career as a platoon corner outfielder after his disastrous stint with the Dodgers, producing a .356 wOBA and 3.7 WAR in 266 games and 881 plate appearances split between the Rangers, White Sox, and Yankees from 2009-2011. It’s a .367 wOBA and 3.1 WAR over the last two years, and most of that damage has come against southpaws: .401 wOBA vs. LHP and .336 wOBA vs. RHP. He’s walking more than ever before (13.5% from ’09-’11 after 9.9% from ’96-’08), and the advanced metrics generally approve of his defense in the corner spots (though the sample sizes are problematic).

Read the rest of this entry »


White Sox Are Stuck In The Middle

The White Sox cleared payroll this weekend, trading Carlos Quentin and Jason Frasor to the Padres and the Blue Jays, respectively. As Eno Sarris predicted a month ago, Chicago didn’t get spectacular returns for either player. But the question still remains — why aren’t the White Sox tearing it all down and starting over? The answer might be because they can’t.

Read the rest of this entry »


Leaderboards: Active Rosters

On the leaderboards, you can now filter by “Active Roster”, which currently displays the 40 man roster.

Please be aware of how this works:

– Team names next to a player are still denoted as the team they played on historically for the year of data selected.

– When you filter by active roster and you are looking at all players and not any specific team, it will show only players who are on active rosters.

– When you are looking at a specific team and you filter by active roster, it will show all the players who are as of this moment, on the active roster.

– If a player has never played in the Major Leagues, he will not show up on the Major League leaderboards.


Making Sense of the Quentin Acquisition

The Padres acquired Carlos Quentin over the weekend by sending prospects Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez to the can-anyone-tell-if-they-are-actually-rebuilding White Sox. At first glance, the move doesn’t make much sense for the Padres. Quentin’s attributes may not translate to the spacious PETCO Park and he is about to enter his final year under team control. Further, the Padres aren’t really in a position to contend in 2012, where a slugging corner outfielder could be the difference in a tight race.

Even if they were, this deal is worth scrutinizing because Quentin is a tough player to peg. He can hit, but plays the field about as bad as a corner outfielder can. His home run totals can partly thank the friendly dimensions of US Cellular Field — fifth-highest park factor for homers in 2011 — whereas dingers are suppressed in his new digs. And given his contractual status, the Padres aren’t even going to get a great deal out of this, as Quentin will likely cost around $8 million before being able to file for free agency.

However, trades like this are always interesting to discuss because they shed light on an element of transaction theory. Mainly, they elicit questions about why a team in the Padres situation would even bother acquiring Quentin. Before delving into their mindset, though, let’s take a closer look at Quentin himself.

Read the rest of this entry »