Prior to the 2005 version, the Major League draft used to alternate picks between the American and National Leagues like they also used to do with home field advantage in the World Series before Bud Selig had to dip his meddlesome fingers in. There are some well-known times when the first overall pick did not go to the team with the worst record in the previous season.

The most recent was when the Padres got to select ahead of the Tigers in 2004 despite the 2003 Tigers having happened. Luckily for the Tigers, the Padres picked Matt Bush and the Tigers landed Justin Verlander. I don’t think they’re crying foul over that missed opportunity.

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Three Notable College Series
2. Projecting: Steamer Projections for Pitchers
3. Video: Kenley Jansen Strikes Everybody Out

Three Notable College Series
College baseball began last weekend, and, in the absence of the professional game, it actually serves as a reasonable proxy — for the present author, at least.

Below are three notable weekend series. For each entry, I’ve provided the broadcast times (ET) for the Friday, Saturday, and Sunday games, respectively. All games are available streaming on CBS Sports ULive unless otherwise noted. (In the event that you’re curious about ULive, I wrote a review earlier this week on it.)

Texas (12) at Stanford (2): 8:30pm, 4:00pm, 4:00pm
Stanford right-hander Mark Appel and third baseman Stephen Piscotty both appeared in Albert Lyu’s recaps of college baseball’s opening weekend (pitchers, hitters). Texas features sophomore third baseman Erich Weiss, whom the OLIVER projection system already basically regards as a major-league hitter.

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Confirmation Bias:

Confirmation bias (also called confirmatory bias, myside bias or verification bias) is a tendency of people to favor information that confirms their beliefs or hypotheses. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for emotionally charged issues and for deeply entrenched beliefs.

Confirmation bias is probably more prevalent among baseball fans than any other logical fallacy. We’ve all gone to a game and sat near the guy who booed when the manager brought in a mediocre reliever to try and preserve a lead, then watched the reliever implode and the loud angry fan tell everyone that “he knew” that guy was going to give up those runs. In reality, he didn’t actually know what was going to happen – since he’s really just a loud angry fan and not a fortune telling wizard – but the fact that events aligned to match his preconceived expectations led to a reinforced belief in his own prior opinion.

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With their offseason shopping essentially complete, the Yankees splurged for one more reliever earlier this week, signing David Aardsma to a one-year contract with a club option for 2013. The terms are hilariously team friendly, as the right-hander will make just $500,000 in 2012 with another $500,000 in available incentives. The option is also worth $500,000 as well, and any incentives he earns in 2012 will raise his 2013 salary by the same amount. At most, they’ll have to pay him $2 million over the next two years after he made $4.5 million in 2011 alone.

Of course, Aardsma is damaged goods. The 30-year-old didn’t pitch at all last season due to hip trouble and later elbow problems that required Tommy John surgery. He’s expected back in August, but GM Brian Cashman said the signing has more to do with 2013 than it does 2012.

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Mock Draft Central’s 5×5 Mixed League Average Draft Position values are now available in all the projection pages under the heading ADP.

These are updated daily as new drafts happen. If you see a 999.0 as the ADP value, it means that player has not been drafted at all.

As a life-long Toronto Blue Jays fan it’s not easy to like the Yankees. As a prospect analyst, though, I can’t help but love the organization’s minor league system. Even when New York has “hiccups” with its draft philosophy, the system manages to churn out and develop all-star caliber players, which also says a lot about the organization’s scouts and minor league development staff. The talent well is not going to run dry any time soon in New York.

1. Manny Banuelos, LHP
BORN: March 13, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 3rd

With the trade of Jesus Montero to Seattle, Banuelos moves up the organizational ladder and into the No. 1 prospect hole. The southpaw is probably about a year away from joining the Yankees’ starting rotation, once he finds a little more consistency with both his fastball command and his overall control. He opened the year with 95.1 innings of work in double-A, where he posted a 4.01 FIP (3.59 ERA) and a walk rate of 4.91 BB/9. Moved up to triple-A for 34.1 more innings Banuelos managed a 3.90 FIP (4.19 ERA) and a walk rate of 4.98 BB/9. Another 100-120 innings in triple-A would definitely be of benefit to the lefty, who features an 89-94 mph fastball, a curveball and a changeup. All three pitches flash the potential to be above-average or plus, giving him a shot at developing into a No. 1 starter in the most dangerous league in Major League Baseball.

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Episode 144
The guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio is also the newest addition to CBS Sports’ blog Eye on Baseball, Dayn Perry. Among the topics discussed: Dayn’s checkered employment history; the virtues of Kevin Towers as both a baseball man and regular man; and the virtues of White Sox TV commentator Hawk Harrelson’s process, if not necessarily his product.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 43 min. play time.)

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Score one for those who reserved judgment: Ryan Braun has seen his positive test overturned by the independent panel headed by arbiter Shyam Das.

Braun put out a statement that this was a “first step in restoring my good name and reputation,” but if this had gone differently, there would have no need for redemption.

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Last summer, a home plate collision between Scott Cousins and Buster Posey ended Posey’s season and touched off a discussion about catching technique and team culture. Shortly after Posey’s injury, Oakland general manager Billy Beane ordered his catcher, Kurt Suzuki, not to block the plate:

I don’t want you planting yourself in front of the plate waiting to get creamed. You’re an Athletic catcher — be athletic. … I don’t want to lose you for six months.

Earlier this week, Bruce Bochy told reporters that he had given the same order to Posey. I think it’s absolutely the right decision, and one that more teams should publicly make.

The trouble is that years of baseball culture are in the way. The tools of ignorance make catcher the only position where a full-body collision is permitted by the rules; and a backstop who is perceived as unwilling to stand his ground is one who will lose respect. That’s why the order has to come from above. Bruce Bochy acknowledged as much: “I certainly don’t want people to think he’s backing off on his own.” As I wrote at the time: “The only way that baseball culture will be able to tolerate a change like this is if it is predicated as a strategic move to win ballgames… Blocking the plate is a lot less important than a catcher’s health. It’s time more teams started to treat it that way.”
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According to Jerry Crasnick, Roy Oswalt may announce today that he’s going to sit out the first half of the season, then make himself available to contenders for the second half of the season, also known as the late career model set by Roger Clemens. Oswalt rebuffed offers from teams outside his geographical preference, and by waiting June, he’ll leave open the possibility that either St. Louis or Texas will decide that they need him after all.

Still, training on your own and throwing bullpens at home isn’t the same thing as facing Major League hitters. While Oswalt can do his best to keep in top physical condition, he’s not going to be able to replicate a live game situation. And, any team looking to sign him this summer will have to take the lack of recent performance into consideration when they offer him a contract. That extra risk will likely drive the price down, and Oswalt will probably end up settling quite a bit less than he could have gotten if he signed with a team now.

So, here’s a thought – maybe Oswalt and his agent should invent the anti-no-trade clause. We’ll call it the Must Trade clause. Pick a team that could use a quality starter, plays in a pitcher’s park (in order to keep his value as high as possible), and isn’t expected to be a strong contender this year – say, for instance, the Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, or the Pittsburgh Pirates. Sign with them for something along the lines of the $8-$10 million for one year that Oswalt has reportedly been seeking from Texas or St. Louis.

However, make it a non-standard contract with a few interesting wrinkles.

1. The base salary is $5 million, paid out evenly over the course of the season.
2. There’s a $3-$5 million signing bonus, payable September 1st.
3. Oswalt specifies a list of teams to which he will accept a trade before the season begins.
4. If Oswalt is not traded to one of those teams by August 1st, he has the right to opt out of the contract and become a free agent.

Under this scenario, Oswalt is basically guaranteed to end the season with a team that fits his criteria for where he wants to play, and he gets more money than he will in any scenario where he sits out until mid-season. In addition, he gets to spend the first few months of the season facing Major League hitters hitters and proving that he’s still a quality starter. An expected also-ran gets a low cost rotation upgrade for the first half of the season and the chance to flip him for a interesting prospect at the deadline. And contenders can wait around and see how their roster shakes out before deciding if they want to bring in Oswalt for the stretch run.

Everyone wins. Plus, it’s interesting. What do you say, Roy? Want to be the first guy with a Must Trade clause in your contract?