In my series’ first part, I looked at the effect that Park Factors have on various ERA estimators. The original question I attempted to answer was whether certain estimators were better suited for predicting performance, depending on whether a park is hitter-friendly or pitcher-friendly. The short answer was that ERA estimators did a much better job in hitter-friendly parks than pitcher-friendly parks, relative to YR1_ERA.

One question I didn’t answer was whether the effectiveness of estimators in various types of parks also varied by pitcher role (i.e. starters versus relievers). Generally speaking, ERA estimators perform better when you restrict the analysis to starters only — since relievers tend to be more volatile year-over-year. The question is whether this same pattern will hold given park factors’ impact. And as predicted, ERA estimators do a better job predicting performance for starters versus relievers.

The current data set includes 533 pairs of starter seasons and reliever seasons where the pitchers threw in the same parks in the first and second years, and did so as starters or relievers both years. Before segmenting by park type, we see results that are consistent with previous analysis regarding ERA estimators and their predictive powers for starters and relievers:

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Take the best available player.

That refrain continues to be the draft philosophy espoused by all thirty major league organizations throughout each summer. It does not matter if the player is 18-years-old and in high school or if the player is 21-years-old and in college. Simply evaluate the talent on the field and draft accordingly. As Mariners’ scouting director Tom McNamara stated last June in preparation for the 2011 Draft:

“If we think the high school player is the best player at No. 2, we’ll take the high school guy. If we think it’s a college guy, we’ll take the college guy.” (source)

Seattle eventually selected collegiate left-hander Danny Hultzen with the second pick in the draft. In 2010, Seattle selected prep right-hander Taijuan Walker in the supplemental first round, which happened to be their first and only first-round pick of the draft. The year before, they had three first-round picks and selected one collegiate player and two high school players.

Echoing the best player available approach, the Mariners have not shown preference toward high school or college. In fact, the organization has drafted seven prep players and six collegiate players since the 2000 Draft. Essentially an even split.

All organizations are not like this, though. I gathered all of the first-round draft picks (including the first supplemental round) since the turn of the century, and noticed a few trends that have developed.

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Just consider it.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. Prospecting: Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects
3. Video: Nolan Arenado Swinging a Lot

Assorted Headlines
Cleveland Trades De La Cruz to Texas
The Cleveland Indians have traded left-handed pitcher Kelvin De La Cruz to Texas for cash, reports ESPN.com’s Richard Durrett. De La Cruz was recently designated for assignment after Cleveland’s signing of Casey Kotchman. According to Indians Prospect Insider, De La Cruz, 23, has both good velocity (91-93 mph) on his fastball and excellent break and depth on his curve. The problem — and the minor-league walk rates definitely support this notion — is fastball command. In just under 180 Double-A innings, De La Cruz has walked 15% of opposing batters.

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This will be the first in a series of articles that compares prospects by walking, step-by-step, through their scouting reports, culminating in my personal recommendation about which prospect is the better bet to reach their ceiling and help your team in the big leagues.

In this first installment I will tackle two Pittsburgh Pirates prospects who many within the industry consider number one and number one “a”  in the club’s system. Right-handers Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon are the Pirates two most recent first round draft picks, having been selected in 2011 and 2010, respectively. Cole made his way to the Pirates after spurning the Yankees as a first round pick in 2008 while Taillon chose to sign straight out of high school nearly two years ago. The Pirates’ cumulative investment in their top two prospects is a whopping $14.5 million.

Both Cole and Taillon offer exceptional size that is the foundation for their profile as top prospects. Taillon’s body (6-6, 225) is extremely mature for his age and he has an advanced feel for controlling his body in space, giving him surprisingly repeatable mechanics for a player of his age and size. Cole has thickened his frame (6-4, 220) since high school while also cleaning up his delivery and becoming more consistent mechanically.

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Thanks to an infusion of high-profile prospects into the pipeline, there is a light at the end of tunnel in Pittsburgh. Scouting director Greg Smith has brought some elite talent into the system in the past two years, highlighted by last June’s first-overall pick, UCLA right-hander Gerrit Cole, and 2010 second-overall selection, Jameson Taillon. And don’t forget about last year’s second-round pick — the supposedly unsignable Josh Bell — who has as much potential as either Cole or Taillon.

Smith talked about his recent picks, the Pirate’s renewed efforts in the international market and the impact that the new Collective Bargaining Agreement will have on future drafts.

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THE DRAFT AND THE NEW CBA

Smith, on the importance of the last two drafts to the organization: “They’re probably not any more important than the ones prior, but only because we take the position that — as far as the amateur draft market goes — you have to continue that influx of talent. Where you’re picking, and the particular draft class — the landscape each year — only allows you so much opportunity to do that.

“The impact the scouting department has on each organization is that if you have a good draft, it can impact your club for years to come. Conversely, if you have a not-so-good draft, it probably impacts it even more because of the lack of talent coming in.

“There is no question that with us picking high in the last couple of years, a lot more attention has been drawn to it, and rightfully so. It’s something where — especially in the market we’re in — we need to put a lot of emphasis on the acquisition of amateur players.”

On the impact of the draft-related changes in the new CBA: Read the rest of this entry »

For the last 11 seasons, Ichiro Suzuki at the top of the order has been the one constant in Seattle. Ichiro isn’t leaving Seattle, but as Eric Wedge announced today, he won’t be leading off for the Mariners any more:

#Mariners manager Eric Wedge just announced that Ichiro will hit 3rd in the lineup this season.

— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) February 21, 2012

For most of his career, Ichiro has been the prototypical leadoff hitter. Even without taking a bunch of walks, Ichiro has managed to post good-to-great on-base percentages and set the table for the rest of the Mariners’ lineups. But the third hitter’s job isn’t just to get on base, it’s also to move runners around to score. Can Ichiro — especially an Ichiro feeling the effects of aging at 38 — adapt his game to fit this new role?

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A solid, if not a bit underrated career came to an end as Mike Cameron called it quits over the weekend, exactly two months after inking a minor league pact to play in the nation’s capital. Cameron’s career ends after 17 seasons with eight ballclubs, during which time the fleet afoot center fielder nabbed three Gold Gloves, poked 278 homers, swiped 297 bags, collected exactly 1,700 hits, and played in just shy of 2,000 games.

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