Archive for May, 2012

FanGraphs Audio: Dayn Perry Can’t Help You

Episode 179
Dayn Perry, contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and author of two books (one of them decent), makes his weekly appearance — during the course of which, for example, it’s revealed that he shares an alma mater with Ted DiBiase, Jr.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 41 min. play time.)

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Job Posting: Astros Internship

Internship – Baseball Operations/Decision Sciences – ASP.net – Houston Astros Baseball Club (Houston, TX)

**Read the information below COMPLETELY. Failure to follow the instructions will affect your candidacy.

PLEASE NOTE:
• If selected for an interview, you will be asked to come to Minute Maid Park in person. You will be responsible for any travel arrangements you choose to make for interview purposes.

• The Astros offer scholarships to eligible students. The Houston Astros Internship Scholarship Program has been established to increase opportunities for undergraduate students of limited financial means to be able to complete full time internships with the club.
• These are full time, unpaid internship opportunities, which require interns to work a 32 to 40 hour work week. In addition, it is mandatory that the candidate receive college credit for their participation in the internship program.
• Specific duties and responsibilities will vary based upon the department but this is a “hands on” internship opportunity.
• If there is a requirement such as language fluency or computer program knowledge, you MUST meet that requirement before selecting that as a department of interest.

ADDITIONAL REQUIREMENTS:
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Pitcher Aging Curves: Maintaining Velocity

Bill Petti published the first two parts of a series on pitcher aging. Bill’s first article focused on pitchers, in general, and the second was on the difference between starters and relievers. For the third installment, I’ll look at aging patterns for pitchers who maintain a relatively constant velocity from year-to-year.

From the previous articles, the average pitcher loses about 4 mph from their fastball from ages 21 to 38. In essence, most pitchers’ stats degrade as their fastball speed drops. Using the same methodology, I wanted to know how pitchers age when they don’t lose velocity on their pitches.

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FanGraphs Prospect Stock Watch – 5/9/12

Manny Banuelos, LHP, New York Yankees
Current Level: AAA
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 1st
Current Value: Monitor Closely

Banuelos, 21, returned from a brief stint on the disabled list with an impressive performance that saw him strike out five batters in 3.0 innings of work. He gave up two hits but did not allow a walk or a run. He followed that up last night with another five innings of one run ball. It was a far cry from his first two starts of the 2012 season when he allowed 14 hits, seven walks and six runs in 5.1 combined innings. With the starting rotation in a state of flux in New York, the triple-A prospect could be a sight for sore eyes come mid season. Banuelos’ control still needs a fair bit of fine tuning but he has the ceiling of a No. 2 starter with a little more polish.

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The Jump-Step and Other Unrepeatable Deliveries

Jordan Walden has a jump step in his delivery. Jordan Walden has control problems. Does one cause the other?

He’s not the only one who has this tendency. Ask around and you might hear about Javy Guerra and Trevor Cahill. With the sample so small, does it mean much? What about other unrepeatable deliveries, like the ones from Chicago relievers Rafael Dolis and Carlos Marmol? Is there something different about the jump-step that sets it apart from other difficult deliveries?

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Brian Wilson Presents: The Best of Casey Blake

Casey Blake has retired. While some might think of him as the “veteran presence” the Dodgers acquired for Carlos Santana (Colletti!), Blake had his other moments.

Blake did have some good seasons with both Cleveland and Los Angeles, and went to the playoffs with both teams. He was rarely exceptional, but he generally provided good value for a guy who did not become a major-league regular until he was 29. In memory of his career, let’s look at his three biggest hits according to Win Probability Added.

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What’s Fueling Adam Dunn’s Resurgence?

After suffering through an abysmal 2011 season, White Sox designated hitter Adam Dunn is off to a fantastic start this year.

Last season, the 31-year-old Dunn put up a career-low .266 weighted on-base average (wOBA), or 59 wRC+, in nearly 500 plate appearances. His on-base percentage — which normally was a strength for the slugger — was .292, or 62 points below his previous career low when he was 23. Most disturbing was the sudden disappearance of his power. Dunn has always been a high-strikeout, high-walk, high-slugging player. But last year, Dunn posted an isolated power of only .118. To put that into perspective, consider this: Dunn’s ISO was only two points higher than Nyjer Morgan’s (.116). Dunn also saw his HR/FB ratio drop to 9.6% in a hitter- and home-run-friendly park. His previous career-low was 17.8%, all the way back in 2002.

But now? Well, we’re seeing the old Adam Dunn. Through May 7, he has managed a .394 wOBA, which is fueled by a .364 OBP, .321 ISO and a 28.1% HR/FB. And both the ISO and HR/FB numbers are better than his career highs. The obvious question is whether these numbers are sustainable. Given how quickly outcomes like BB% and HR/FB stabilize, there’s a good chance that Dunn’s end-of-season numbers could be similar to what they are today. The question I have is what is Dunn doing differently? To get a better handle on this, I took a look at Dunn’s performance on specific pitches in different locations.

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FanGraphs Chat – 5/9/12


The Sacrifice Bunt: The Real Rally Killer

Last night, the Dodgers trailed the Giants 2-1 in the seventh inning. Juan Rivera and James Loney led off the inning with back-to-back singles, putting the tying run in scoring position and the go-ahead run on base with nobody out. Juan Uribe, the #7 hitter in the line-up, was due up to hit.

Don Mattingly asked him to bunt, which, if successful, would have put runners at second and third with one out, bringing A.J. Ellis to the plate with first base open. With the pitcher’s spot coming up behind Ellis, an intentional walk would have been an obvious call, and the Dodgers would then have had the bases loaded with one out and Bobby Abreu pinch-hitting. A few years ago, that might have been a really nice situation. Now, though, Abreu is about a league average hitter, and hitters perform worse in pinch-hitting situations than in other situations. Abreu is also a guy who hits the ball on the ground more than most hitters, and he’s a good candidate to hit into a double play in that situation. Had Abreu only made one out and not ended the inning, the Dodgers would then have had Dee Gordon and his .266 wOBA at the plate. Essentially, Don Mattingly was willing to give up an out for the chance to have a pinch-hitting Bobby Abreu and a bad-hitting Dee Gordon try to put runs on the board.

However, Uribe laid down a lousy bunt, and Buster Posey turned it into a 2-5-3 double play. Ellis then flew out to end the inning, and the rally ended up without even turning the line-up over, much less getting any runs across.

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Ryan Vogelsong and Cause For Concern

Right-hander Ryan Vogelsong proved to be one of the feel-good stories of the year in 2011.

The 34-year-old owned an unsightly career 5.86 ERA through 315 major-league innings with the San Francisco Giants and Pittsburgh Pirates coming into the 2011 season. He then seemingly flipped a switch and handcuffed the league with a 2.71 ERA and 3.67 FIP over 179.2 innings for the Giants and became a key part of their starting rotation.

That success has trickled into the 2012 season. Vogelsong tossed 7.1 innings against the Dodgers on Tuesday evening, surrendering only one run on eight scattered hits and one strikeout. That lowered his season ERA to 2.94 and his FIP to 3.51, both of which are better than average in the National League thus far in 2012.

Moving forward, though, this rags-to-riches story has some significant hurdles to overcome.

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