Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. That Information You Wanted: SCOUT Leaderboards for High-A
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

That Information You Wanted: SCOUT Leaderboards for High-A
Regarding What This Is, First of All
What follows is that information you asked about — i.e. the SCOUT Leaderboards for all three High-A Leagues (the California, Carolina, and Florida State) combined.

Regarding What Is SCOUT, Additionally
SCOUT is a (likely absurd, admittedly unnecessary) metric designed by the author to assess performance in those instances — like in a minor league, for example — where small samples are ubiquitous.

The Offensive Version of SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
The offensive version of SCOUT — represented as SCOUT+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average — is essentially a version of wRC+, except using the three main defense-independent metrics (home-run, walk, and strikeout rates), all regressed duly*, as the inputs.

*By the method outlined here.

The Pitching Version of SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
The pitching version of SCOUT — represented as SCOUT-, where 100 is league average and below 100 represents above-average run prevention — is calculated using a version of kwERA, with regressed strikeout and walk rates as the relevant inputs.

Regarding SCOUT, One of Its Benefits
A benefit of SCOUT is it allows one to compare the relative performances of players with markedly different sample sizes.

Regarding SCOUT, Another of Its Benefits
Another benefit of SCOUT is, because both SCOUT+ and SCOUT- are presented relative to league, it allows one to compare the relative performances of players across multiple leagues — like in what follows, for example.

Regarding These Numbers
All the following numbers are final for 2012.

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Jameson Taillon has the raw stuff to become a frontline starter. He also has the mentality. The 20-year-old Pittsburgh Pirates prospect has an advanced feel for pitching, which is a reason he could reach the big leagues as soon as next year. Drafted second overall in 2010, the 6-foot-6 right-hander finished the season with Double-A Altoona after spending most of it in High-A. In 142 innings, he logged a 3.55 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .230 average. He came in at No. 15 on Baseball America’s mid-season ranking of the game’s top prospects.

——

Taillon on becoming a complete pitcher: “I’m in that process right now. From what I can tell, it’s kind of a never-ending process. All the way through your career, you can never stop trying to get better, never stop trying to become more of a complete pitcher. When I got drafted, I had a pretty good idea of what to do on the mound — but since then, I’ve taken huge steps.

“This has been the biggest year of my life, baseball-wise, as far as learning the intricacies of the game. I’ve learned a lot about feel and what to do with the ball, and different mentalities of how to set up hitters.

“Coming into the year, I had a pretty good breaking ball and an OK changeup. Obviously, a good fastball. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam talk about why they haven’t talked about the Reds more often, then discuss whether Anthony Rizzo has proved his critics wrong.

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Tampa Bay at New York AL, 13:40 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Tampa Bay at New York AL, 13:40 ET
Regarding This Game, Why It’s Notable
One reason why this game is notable is on account of the presence of Playoff Implications™ in it.

Regarding the Rays, Their Playoff-Odds Status
The Rays are currently four games out of first place in the AL East and have, according to Cool Standings, a 26.7% chance of making the postseason (which includes their likelihood of qualifying for the wild-card play-in game).

Regarding the Yankers, Their Playoff-Odds Status
The Yankers currently occupy first place in the AL East and have, also according to Cool Standings, a 90.0% chance of making the postseason (including a ca. 70% probability of winning the division).

Read the rest of this entry »

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: St. Louis at Los Angeles NL, 21:10 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: St. Louis at Los Angeles NL, 21:10 ET
Regarding This Game, What’s Notable About It
What’s notable about this game is mostly the presence of Playoff Implications™ in it.

Regarding the Cardinals, Their Playoff-Odds Status
The Cardinals currently occupy the National League’s second wild-card spot and possess, according to Cool Standings, a 61.5% chance of qualifying for the play-in game.

Regarding the Dodgers, Their Playoff-Odds Status
The Dodgers are currently a game out of that second wild-card spot — the one occupied by the Cardinals, in fact — and possess, also according to Cool Standings, an 18.8% probability of qualifying for the play-in game.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 242
This edition of FanGraphs Audio features the saddest contributor to NotGraphs (Patrick Dubuque) and also its most sincere (Robert J. Baumann). Also, it isn’t a real staff meeting.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 53 min. play time.)

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People care about home-run distance, because people like impressive home runs, and impressive home runs tend to have considerable distances. One is impressed when a batter drives a baseball 480 feet and out of the yard. As far as quality of contact is concerned, though, what might be more significant is the baseball’s speed off the bat. All a hitter ever wants to do is hit the baseball hard, so looking at the speed off the bat tells us who hit the baseball the hardest. The ESPN Home Run Tracker provides this data for dingers, and unsurprisingly, the hardest-hit homer of the year so far was hit by Giancarlo Stanton. It was a homer that damaged a scoreboard.

You can sort the data in the other direction to see the weakest-hit home runs. On average, home runs have left the bat at 103.5 miles per hour. The weakest homer was hit by Jayson Nix, to right field in Yankee Stadium. It left the bat at 89.8 miles per hour. The next-weakest was hit by Chris Iannetta, also in Yankee Stadium. Then the next two weakest after that were hit in Fenway Park. These aren’t astonishing results — people are familiar with the idea of Yankee Stadium and Fenway conceding some cheap dingers. People love dingers, but some of those cheap ones can make them roll their eyes.

The fifth-weakest dinger of the year so far was hit in Petco Park.

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A new list of World Series and playoff odds is up at Bovada. There are, at this point, few surprises. By September, we have a good idea of who the contenders and pretenders are; we know the teams on the periphery and we know the teams right in the thick of races. Seeing Texas and Cincinnati favored to win their leagues shouldn’t surprise anybody.

There is one particular bet, however, that caught my eye.

MLB Special – Will the Baltimore Orioles make the playoffs in 2012?
Yes -115 (bet 115 to make 100)
No -115

The Orioles at even odds to make the playoffs? You would be laughed out of the room back in April, but in September, with Baltimore tied atop the AL East and 3.5 games clear of the Angels for the Wild Card, it’s a sign that Vegas still isn’t buying the Orioles.

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With Kingsport being no more than 40-minutes away from Elizabethton, the Mets showed up 30-minutes before game time robbing me of a chance to see batting practice and infield/outfield. Nonetheless, I’m not sure it would have mattered as 2012 Mets first round pick Gavin Cecchini was penciled in the lineup as designated hitter and the rest of the starting lineup was short on prospects beyond diminutive second baseman Branden Kaupe. I also lucked into three innings of Akeel Morris, a relief pitcher rumored to have big velocity who fell apart early on as a starter before reeling off 16 innings of two earned run ball to end the season. Read the rest of this entry »

[In case you need a soundtrack for this post.]

The Cincinnati Reds have had a number of surprising heroes as they have pulled away from the field in the 2012 National League Central despite losing one the best players in baseball, Joey Votto, for a substantial chunk of games (although Votto has still managed to be worth about five wins this year). In addition to the expected contributions of players like Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, and Mat Latos, the Reds have been the beneficiary of a number of performances that have, in varying degrees, been much better than one might have expected from players such as Johnny Cueto, Aroldis Chapman (still ridiculous to look at his numbers), and Todd Frazier.

Perhaps the most surprising Reds overperformer has been Ryan Ludwick. After bottoming out in San Diego and Pittsburgh last year, Ludwick has hit .275/.345/.534 (132 wRC) with 25 home runs for the Reds so far in 2012. Is Ludwick (and, by extension, the Reds) just getting “lucky,” and if so, what does that even mean?

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