Last night the Orioles won another one-run game — no surprise there. Darren O’Day, Pedro Strop, and Jim Johnson combined for a scoreless 7th, 8th, and 9th — also no surprise. The Orioles bullpen is a major reason the team is tied atop the AL East. On Tuesday Jeff Zimmerman argued that successfully leveraging these relievers could partially account for the O’s performance in one run games. The theory is that an inconsistent rotation and streaky offense put the O’s in a disproportionate number of low leverage situations and preserving the best relievers hurts run differential in these games, while allowing the team to consistently use its best arms in close games. The result? Bigger blowout losses, fewer blowout wins, and more wins than typical run differential expectations would dictate.

Testing the theory that there is a method to the O’s 2012 run requires analysis of three questions. First, do the O’s find themselves in enough low leverage situations for such a strategy to impact their run differential on a significant scale? As Jeff pointed out on Tuesday, relative to other similarly successful teams the O’s seem to have a disproportionate number of blowout losses—games lost by more than six runs. In fact, the O’s have the 12th highest number of low leverage relief appearances in baseball.

Read the rest of this entry »

There is no hitting A.J. Griffin this season. The 24-year-old rookie continued his remarkable run through the American League Wednesday night as he stifled the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim to the tune of eight shutout innings. The swiftly rising righty struck out six Angles against six hits and no walks. The dominant outing lowered Griffin’s ERA to 1.94 to go with an splendid 2.98 FIP.

The plan of attack for Griffin was a simple one: get ahead and stay ahead. The Angels seemed only happy to oblige.

Read the rest of this entry »

I don’t intend to mean-spiritedly pick on the fine folks over at Baseball Prospectus, but in this instance I can’t not make a little fun. A couple excerpts from paragraphs found on Chase Headley’s player page:

I don’t think Headley is going to have more than .150 Isolated Power. Partially due to Petco, partially because he’s not that kind of hitter. (5/5/2010)

That was on Chase Headley’s power potential, not on Headley just in 2010. Another:

Yes, PETCO suppresses some of his power, but even in Citizen’s Bank Park, Headley wouldn’t hit more than 24 HR. (12/20/2010)

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, Jeff noted in his post on the Brewers that one “could write thousands of words on the varying strengths of remaining schedules for the wild-card contenders.” He then proceeded to write three sentences, so apparently he meant someone else could write thousands of words on the the remaining schedules of wild-card contenders. Maybe if the remaining schedule could somehow have been GIFed, he would have been more interested? Anyway, I’m here to do the work that he decided to take a pass on.

With the Phillies and Brewers recent surges, the NL Wild Card race has gotten pretty interesting. The Braves basically have one of the two spots locked up, but who they’ll be playing is an open question. St. Louis and Los Angeles still seem like the best bets, but the Pirates, Phillies, Brewers, and even the Diamondbacks could sneak into the play-in game if they play really well down the stretch and get some help from the teams they’re chasing. In a race this tight, quality of opposition could make a significant difference, so let’s take a look at the slate of games left for each club, going in order of current standing.

Read the rest of this entry »

In a recent article discussing the latest crop of international talent, valued commenter “Nate” offered a great, concise preview of soon-to-be international free agent Kyuji Fujikawa, who’s presently playing in the Nippon Professional Baseball league:

Kyuji Fujikawa – Closer for the Hanshin Tigers. Closest thing Japan has had lately to a Mariano Rivera-type. He’s 32, but will be a full free agent, so won’t require a posting fee. Expensive teams that forgot to buy a bullpen should look at him *cough* Angels *cough*.

And Nate is correct many times over; not only does one of Japan’s best relievers appear ready for a jump across the river, but he also has every chance to be an elite reliever in the United States.

Take a look at his numbers in Japan:

This is legit. And he could make for a talented addition to a number of teams in 2013.
Read the rest of this entry »

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. SCOUT Leaderboards: Double-A Southern League
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

SCOUT Leaderboards: Double-A Southern League
Regarding What Is SCOUT, First of All
SCOUT is a (likely absurd, admittedly unnecessary) metric designed by the author to assess performance in those instances — like in a minor league, for example — where small samples are ubiquitous.

The Offensive Version of SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
The offensive version of SCOUT — represented as SCOUT+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average — is essentially a version of wRC+, except using the three main defense-independent metrics (home-run, walk, and strikeout rates), all regressed duly*, as the inputs.

*By the method outlined here.

The Pitching Version of SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
The pitching version of SCOUT — represented as SCOUT-, where 100 is league average and below 100 represents above-average run prevention — is calculated using a version of kwERA, with regressed strikeout and walk rates as the relevant inputs.

Regarding SCOUT, One of Its Benefits
A benefit of SCOUT is it allows one to compare the relative performances of players with markedly different sample sizes.

Regarding the Southern League, Its Regular Season
The Southern League’s regular season ended on September 3rd, it appears. As such, all following numbers are final for 2012.

Read the rest of this entry »

There’s a natural ebb and flow to every pitcher’s season, but it comes in fits and starts instead of the smoother information stream that a position player provides. So, every five days, our brains attempt to fit a narrative over these disparate pieces of information. That’s natural, if not always useful.

Take Adam Wainwright for instance. In his last three starts, he’s given up 13 earned runs, 16 total runs, 31 baserunners, and a 14-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 13.2 innings. It’s tempting to call that a wall. But what about the three-start stretch at the end of June, when he gave up 12 earned runs, 28 baserunners and had a 18-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 17.1 innings? That was just a bump in the road now that we’ve seen what he’s done since.

Of course, those numbers are not completely equivalent. And if we drill down further, we might find cause for concern when it comes to the Tommy John returnee in St. Louis.

Read the rest of this entry »

Delino DeShields, Jr. was clearly overshadowed this season. The 20-year-old Houston Astros prospect stole 101 bases, but thanks to Billy Hamilton‘s record-setting 155, his own thievery went largely unnoticed. Despite the relative lack of attention, DeShields may ultimately prove to be the better player.

Taken eighth overall in the 2010 draft, the right-handed-hitting second baseman had a breakout campaign between low-A Lexington and high-A Lancaster. Along with his pilferage, he hit .287/.389/.428, with 12 home runs.

——

David Laurila: Outside of the stolen bases, what was your biggest accomplishment this season?

Delino DeShields: I don’t even know, man. Last year, I knew that I had the ability and everything; it was just a rough year for me. I had the position change and I know that a lot of people doubted me. This year, I knew that I had it in me and just went out there and played. I played like I always used to play.

DL: Have the biggest adjustments been physical or mental?

DD: They’ve been more mental. Last year, the plan was to get me comfortable at second base. I had never played there in my entire life. I got pretty comfortable at that and this year I just put everything together. The defensive part is there, and I guess that the offensive side is probably what I’m most proud of, besides my stolen bases. I’ve walked a lot more, been patient at the plate, and got on base a lot more.

I’ve had a more consistent approach. I haven’t been going up to the plate without a plan. I having a plan now, and know the situation a lot better. I’ve worked really hard to polish everything up. I’ve still got a lot more polishing to do — I know that — but I’ve come a long way from last year.

DL: Players who steal a lot of bases often excel at small ball. Do you see that as your game?

DD: I look at myself as more of an all-around hitter. I can bunt when I need to, but I can also hit the ball over the fence. Read the rest of this entry »