Archive for December, 2012

Hamilton Fallout: Trade Bourjos, Trumbo, or Morales?

After losing out on Zack Greinke, the Angels decided to just take the money they had ticketed for a pitcher and sign Josh Hamilton instead. It’s certainly a bold move, and even with all of Hamilton’s red flags, he should probably project as something around a +4 win player for 2013, though of course the variance around that mark is probably larger than with most hitters. However, for the Angels to realize the full value of adding Hamilton to the roster, this can’t be their last move, because they already had an outfield full of useful players, and paying $125 million for the right to bench Mark Trumbo or Peter Boujos just doesn’t make any sense.

The Angels still have a gaping hole in their starting rotation. With Hamilton in the fold, they now have four outfielders who deserve to play regularly. A trade seems inevitable. Now, the Angels just have to decide which player to move.

Mike Trout’s obviously not going anywhere, and Vernon Wells wouldn’t even bring a batting tee in return, so it’s likely going to come down to one of three options – Bourjos, Trumbo, or Kendrys Morales. There are only two line-up spots for those three players, and all three are good enough to be big league starter. So, who goes and who stays?

Read the rest of this entry »


How To Build A Hall of Fame*

ESPN just started a new project, Hall of 100, and the basic intention is to create a list of the 100 best players regardless of steroid use. It’s right there in the introductory sentence: “With some big PED-era names facing judgment day next month in the Baseball Hall of Fame voting and with the everlasting cacophony over who belongs in Cooperstown and who doesn’t, we decided to take a fresh look at the greats of the game.” The idea is to remove the asterisk.

Of course, lists of any kind are pretty much SEO gold, so ESPN is not doing this out of the goodness of their hearts. They’re doing it because it’s clickbait, and they can own the hashtag #Hallof100, and so on. But the methodology is quite interesting, and I’m fascinated by Halls of Fame, from the mythology to the difficulty of expressing something subjective — greatness — using objective criteria. Greatness is subjective because it has to do with how we feel about a player; it is separate from a simple ordinal statistical ranking, which you could call “bestness.” So what’s the best way to make a Hall of Fame?
Read the rest of this entry »


Josh Hamilton Signs With Angels Out of Nowhere

Let’s begin with the news: Josh Hamilton is a free agent no longer. As of Thursday, he’s agreed to a five-year contract with the Angels reportedly worth $125 million. That breaks down easily to come out to an average annual value of $25 million. As of Wednesday, the Rangers looked like the favorites to get Hamilton locked up, and it was said that Hamilton would give the Rangers a chance to match any offer before he committed himself to another organization. According to Jon Heyman, the Rangers were actually given no such chance, as they were simply told that Hamilton was leaving. Reports suggest the Rangers wouldn’t go higher than four years. The Angels gave five. Five is greater than four.

Now let’s follow with some recent history. The Angels weren’t even mentioned seriously as a Hamilton suitor until Thursday morning. It looked like it would be the Rangers, with the Mariners and the Phillies somewhere on the dark-horse periphery. In fact:

Read the rest of this entry »


Mariners Prospect Notebook

I caught the upper level Mariners affiliates (Jackson & Tacoma) on a swing through the southeast late in the minor league season and there are a handful of prospects from those teams I haven’t written up yet. Both of these teams were deep with big leaguers and have some interesting prospects beyond the obvious elite guys.

Stefen Romero had the lowest draft profile player among these prospects, as a 12th round pick that signed for $100,000 out of Oregon State, but he kept barreling balls up when I saw him and he’s done it all year (.346/.387/.588 in Hi-A and AA). He does it mostly with a pull-oriented, aggressive, early count approach that normally doesn’t project well, but works for some guys in the big leagues, so you can’t rule him out. Normally this kind of approach comes with below-average hitting tools and allows the hitter to take advantage of the mistakes lower-level pitchers make, but falls apart against the advanced command of the upper levels. When Romero keeps raking in AA and picking his spots against better pitching, it starts becoming more likely he’s a useful big leaguer and he has some big league tools to back that up.

Romero has solid bat speed, above-average raw power to his pull side and a simple swing. His plate discipline is just okay, there is some stiffness to his swing and there’s occasional length to his bath path with a high finish that can become an uppercut at times. Going back to my three elements of a hit tool, his tools are solid-average, his bat control shows flashes of average and his plate discipline is below. That’s enough to be a big league hitter with the power to punish a mistake and the 6’3, 225 Romero was actually playing second base for Jackson. His big frame and below-average feet will limit him to a corner utility role in the big leagues, but his hands looked good enough that he may be able to play a solid third base. Even as strictly a corner outfielder, he can be a righty platoon bat with a chance for a little more.
Read the rest of this entry »


Ryan Dempster, Quality AL Pitcher

According to Ken Rosenthal, Ryan Dempster is close to signing with the Boston Red Sox. Assuming the deal gets done, you’re going to hear a lot about how Dempster is an NL pitcher transitioning to the AL East, and how this is bound to go poorly. You’re going to hear about Dempster’s 5.09 ERA with Texas after the mid-season trade ended his long stint as an NL only pitcher, and you’re going to hear about how he got taken apart by the Yankees, giving up eight runs in six innings of work.

Because Dempster is headed for his age-36 season, has a fastball that sits around 90 mph, and had spent his entire career in the NL before the mid-season trade to Texas, many are going to expect Dempster to be exposed in the AL East. Whenever a pitcher without top-shelf velocity makes the move from the NL to the AL, and especially to the AL East, there’s always an expectation of disaster. The theory goes that pitchers with marginal velocity can dominate in the NL, but get exposed when facing the big bats of the super scary American League East.

The problem is that we’ve got too many pieces of evidence to suggest that it’s not true.

Read the rest of this entry »


Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 12/13/12


Daily Notes, Ft. Three of Bauer’s Reverse Sliders

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. GIF Explosion: Three of Trevor Bauer’s “Reverse Sliders”
2. Information: Top Mexican Pacific League Reliever, Mike Benacka
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Mexican Pacific League

GIF Explosion: Three of Trevor Bauer’s “Reverse Sliders”
Right-hander Trevor Bauer was traded from Arizona to Cleveland on Tuesday as part of a three-team deal that sent, among others, Shin-Soo Choo to the Reds and Drew Stubbs to the Indians. Among his repertoire is an excellent curveball — notable examples of which pitch the author examined yesterday in these pages.

Also among Bauer’s repertoire is something known as a “reverse slider” — a pitch not entirely dissimilar to a changeup, except also different than a changeup. Below are three notable examples of that pitch (probably) from his (i.e. Bauer’s) first four major-league starts — where “notable” is determined by a combination of (a) result, (b) movement, (c) strength of opponent, (d) camera angle, and (e) the author’s infallible aesthetic judgment.

Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 101: Learning to Like Youkilis/What the Diamondbacks Got Back for Bauer/Why Do Teams Love Lefty Starters?

Ben and Sam answer listener emails about whether a Yankees fan can learn to like Kevin Youkilis, whether the Diamondbacks got enough back for Trevor Bauer, why teams love left-handed starters, and more.


FanGraphs Audio: Beware of Dayn Perry

Episode 286
Dayn Perry, contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and author of two books (one of them serviceable), is a threat both to himself and also to everyone.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 58 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »


Home of the Ichiro Power Swing

A renewal of vows between Ichiro Suzuki and the Yankees is beginning to take on an air of inevitability. I don’t know what the Yankees thought they were getting when they first brought Ichiro in, but he had good success down the stretch, and he expressed a willingness to re-sign. The Yankees need an outfielder, and they’re trying to avoid multi-year contracts. Weeks ago, Ichiro’s agent all but declared that Ichiro just wanted to stay where he was, and now Ken Rosenthal reports that a contract agreement is just about reached. Barring a complete surprise, Ichiro will play for the Yankees during the 2013 season. Which, of course, just a few months ago, would’ve been a complete surprise. You’re not even aware of how quickly the things around you are changing. Ichiro is on the Yankees. Michael Young is on the Phillies. Kevin Youkilis is on the Yankees too. Consider this reality.

Had Ichiro performed poorly with New York, it stands to reason he wouldn’t be re-signing, because it stands to reason they wouldn’t want him. It would’ve been fascinating to see if a market would’ve developed had Ichiro struggled. He didn’t, though, batting well north of .300 with the Yankees, so of course they like him on a small contract. They’ll add a right-handed outfielder and then they’ll see how that goes come summertime. Ichiro’s stretch run added a good amount of value to his name, after a year and a half of hard times in Seattle.

Read the rest of this entry »