2013 ZiPS Projections – Chicago Cubs

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, will be released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Chicago Cubs. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Astros / Athletics / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Rangers.

Batters
The Cubs are projected by ZiPS to have, in shortstop Starlin Castro and first baseman Anthony Rizzo, to have a pair of basically All Star-type players who are also just 23 years old. Those are good kinds of players to have — especially for a team that isn’t likely to be very competitive this season, but has the resources to invest in free agents if and when such a thing is called for in the near future.

The rest of the starting lineup — besides human-shaped albatross Alfonso Soriano, that is — is a combination of decent organizational products (Darwin Barney, Wellington Castillo) and low-risk free agents (David DeJesus, Nate Schierholtz) acquired since the arrival of Theo Epstein et al.

Pitchers
In Matt Garza, Jeff Samardzija, and recent signing Edwin Jackson, Chicago has a perfectly reputable triumvirate atop its starting rotation — one that ZiPS regards as worth something like nine wins. Before the Cubs signed Scott Feldman, our Dave Cameron had hailed — or, at least something close to hailed — him (i.e. Feldman) as “one of the best buys on the market.” His innings projection reflects the swing role he filled in Texas, which saw him make 45 starts and 24 relief appearances, for example, over the last three seasons.

ZiPS is rather optimistic about the bullpen — and, specifically, about Japanese right-hander Kyuji Fujikawa, who signed a two-year, $9.5 million deal with the Cubs this offseason. Included here is also a projection for Kerry Wood — just for curiosity value, as Szymborski does for all notable, newly retired players.

Bench/Prospects
Despite a major-league debut that saw him strike out in 41.5% of his 142 plate appearances, outfielder Brett Jackson (who enters his age-24 season) still receives a rather optimistic projection here, at 2.3 WAR. Futhermore, ZiPS regards second baseman Logan Watkins, shortstop Junior Lake, and outfielder Matt Szczur — though none of them is likely to break camp with the major-league team — as better than replacement-level. Szczur and Watkins finished first and third, respectively, among all prospect-age hitters in the Arizona Fall League by regressed batting.

There’s also some depth on the pitching side, too: both Scott Baker (signed for one year at $5.5 million) and Arodys Vizcaino (acquired in the deal that sent Paul Maholm to Atlanta last summer) are scheduled to return from Tommy John surgery at some point in April or May.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Cubs, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Starlin Castro	R	23	SS	680	85	187	31	12	14	77	24	11
Anthony Rizzo	L	23	1B	642	85	160	32	2	31	109	7	5
Darwin Barney	R	27	2B	607	77	153	26	5	5	49	8	2
Brett Jackson	L	24	CF	626	79	126	24	10	17	61	22	9
Alfonso Soriano	R	37	LF	533	58	123	27	2	26	91	4	2
Logan Watkins	L	23	2B	602	75	131	18	8	8	52	21	7
Welington Castillo	R	26	C	375	39	81	17	0	12	45	0	0
Junior Lake	R	23	SS	522	62	124	23	5	10	49	26	10
Matt Szczur	R	23	CF	562	69	132	24	6	6	46	28	12
Bryan LaHair	L	30	1B	478	55	110	23	0	22	62	3	1
Luis Valbuena	L	27	SS	548	57	121	27	2	11	56	4	3
Josh Vitters	R	23	3B	596	63	145	29	2	17	74	7	8
David DeJesus	L	33	RF	507	64	117	22	6	9	46	4	6
Tony Campana	L	27	CF	441	56	106	12	3	1	21	43	12
Christian Villanueva	R	22	3B	590	56	127	26	3	12	56	20	13
Adrian Cardenas	L	25	2B	508	58	121	27	3	3	45	6	4
Steve Clevenger	L	27	C	357	31	86	20	2	3	36	1	2
Nate Schierholtz	L	29	RF	312	35	74	14	3	8	30	4	3
Dioner Navarro	B	29	C	200	20	44	9	1	4	22	1	0
Dave Sappelt	R	26	RF	617	64	151	28	6	8	51	14	11
Ian Stewart	L	28	3B	328	32	61	11	2	11	35	3	3
Alfredo Amezaga	B	35	SS	283	29	62	10	1	3	29	4	2
Brad Nelson	L	30	1B	523	50	108	23	1	16	53	1	1
Brian Bogusevic	L	29	RF	470	54	94	17	3	7	41	16	3
J.C. Boscan	R	33	C	256	19	47	11	0	2	16	1	1
Ty Wright	R	28	LF	385	42	91	19	1	6	40	3	2
Edwin Maysonet	R	31	SS	372	31	75	15	2	2	26	3	1
Alberto Gonzalez	R	30	SS	205	19	49	8	2	1	18	1	1
Diory Hernandez	R	29	3B	255	22	54	11	1	3	23	2	2
Matt Tolbert	B	31	SS	347	34	71	12	3	1	21	7	4
Johermyn Chavez	R	24	RF	498	60	100	18	4	12	50	3	7
Joe Mather	R	30	LF	327	30	68	15	1	6	28	5	3

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Starlin Castro	680	5.3%	12.9%	.152	.321	.294	.332	.446	.333
Anthony Rizzo	642	8.7%	20.6%	.224	.311	.279	.349	.503	.362
Darwin Barney	607	4.8%	11.4%	.090	.298	.270	.308	.360	.292
Brett Jackson	626	10.7%	34.0%	.173	.339	.230	.317	.403	.314
Alfonso Soriano	533	6.0%	24.2%	.221	.284	.249	.300	.470	.326
Logan Watkins	602	8.3%	20.9%	.109	.305	.245	.315	.354	.295
Welington Castillo	375	8.0%	25.6%	.158	.297	.240	.309	.398	.307
Junior Lake	522	4.8%	27.6%	.129	.339	.254	.295	.383	.297
Matt Szczur	562	7.1%	16.4%	.105	.300	.256	.312	.361	.297
Bryan LaHair	478	9.0%	27.0%	.207	.311	.255	.322	.462	.332
Luis Valbuena	548	9.3%	21.2%	.131	.301	.247	.319	.378	.305
Josh Vitters	596	5.0%	17.8%	.151	.294	.262	.305	.413	.307
David DeJesus	507	9.3%	15.0%	.137	.297	.262	.341	.399	.320
Tony Campana	441	5.4%	21.5%	.052	.339	.262	.306	.314	.280
Christian Villanueva	590	4.9%	21.5%	.126	.283	.236	.290	.362	.282
Adrian Cardenas	508	7.7%	13.2%	.091	.299	.263	.320	.354	.293
Steve Clevenger	357	6.4%	14.6%	.100	.300	.261	.309	.361	.291
Nate Schierholtz	312	7.1%	16.7%	.154	.291	.261	.315	.415	.309
Dioner Navarro	200	7.5%	14.5%	.128	.270	.246	.305	.374	.288
Dave Sappelt	617	6.3%	15.4%	.114	.307	.267	.316	.381	.298
Ian Stewart	328	10.1%	29.3%	.166	.270	.210	.296	.376	.286
Alfredo Amezaga	283	6.7%	16.6%	.081	.278	.238	.291	.319	.268
Brad Nelson	523	9.0%	22.9%	.155	.271	.230	.298	.385	.297
Brian Bogusevic	470	9.4%	23.6%	.105	.288	.224	.305	.329	.286
J.C. Boscan	256	5.9%	25.4%	.072	.265	.199	.252	.271	.233
Ty Wright	385	5.2%	17.7%	.109	.298	.256	.300	.365	.289
Edwin Maysonet	372	5.1%	20.4%	.074	.278	.221	.269	.295	.247
Alberto Gonzalez	205	2.9%	14.1%	.078	.291	.254	.281	.332	.261
Diory Hernandez	255	3.5%	18.4%	.092	.267	.226	.258	.318	.248
Matt Tolbert	347	6.6%	18.2%	.067	.278	.226	.282	.293	.249
Johermyn Chavez	498	6.8%	28.1%	.137	.292	.222	.288	.359	.279
Joe Mather	327	6.4%	21.7%	.116	.273	.226	.276	.342	.269

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Starlin Castro	680	5.7	109	-3	4.0	Robin Yount
Anthony Rizzo	642	6.5	129	4	4.0	Kent Hrbek
Darwin Barney	607	4.2	81	10	2.3	Jose Lind
Brett Jackson	626	4.6	95	1	2.3	Larry Whisenton
Alfonso Soriano	533	5.1	105	1	1.8	George Foster
Logan Watkins	602	4.1	82	3	1.7	Scott Earl
Welington Castillo	375	4.4	91	-1	1.6	John Buck
Junior Lake	522	4.2	83	-2	1.5	Carlos Garcia
Matt Szczur	562	4.2	83	3	1.5	Trey Beamon
Bryan LaHair	478	5.4	110	-3	1.3	Paul Sorrento
Luis Valbuena	548	4.3	89	-6	1.3	Jesus Alfaro
Josh Vitters	596	4.4	93	-5	1.3	Willy Aybar
David DeJesus	507	4.8	101	0	1.1	Dave Martinez
Tony Campana	441	4.0	69	5	1.1	Willy Taveras
Christian Villanueva	590	3.6	76	4	1.1	Tim Olson
Adrian Cardenas	508	4.1	84	-3	0.8	Jeff Treadway
Steve Clevenger	357	4.0	82	-3	0.8	Bobby Wilson
Nate Schierholtz	312	4.7	97	1	0.8	Keith Hughes
Dioner Navarro	200	4.1	84	0	0.7	Doug Newstrom
Dave Sappelt	617	4.3	89	0	0.5	Pat Watkins
Ian Stewart	328	3.7	81	-2	0.4	Sean Mcnally
Alfredo Amezaga	283	3.3	66	-1	0.3	Alfredo Griffin
Brad Nelson	523	4.0	84	0	0.1	Todd Mensik
Brian Bogusevic	470	3.7	73	0	0.1	Kevin Koslofski
J.C. Boscan	256	2.3	43	2	-0.1	Charlie Greene
Ty Wright	385	4.0	80	-1	-0.1	Jeff Frazier
Edwin Maysonet	372	2.8	54	-1	-0.1	Chris Petersen
Alberto Gonzalez	205	3.3	66	-4	-0.2	Alvaro Espinoza
Diory Hernandez	255	2.8	56	1	-0.2	Carlo Colombino
Matt Tolbert	347	2.8	57	-3	-0.3	Pablo Martinez
Johermyn Chavez	498	3.3	75	0	-0.4	Jeremy Dodson
Joe Mather	327	3.3	67	-2	-0.6	John Giudice

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Jeff Samardzija	R	28	27	27	169.0	172	54	19	153	73	68
Edwin Jackson	R	29	30	30	186.7	159	60	19	183	87	81
Matt Garza	R	29	25	25	151.7	140	48	17	140	66	62
Scott Baker	R	31	19	18	111.7	100	30	14	111	52	49
Carlos Villanueva	R	29	34	14	110.7	100	41	14	102	52	49
Travis Wood	L	26	31	30	171.0	135	59	23	175	92	86
Scott Feldman	R	30	25	17	108.7	79	31	11	115	56	52
Carlos Marmol	R	30	67	0	64.3	91	46	5	46	26	24
Kyuji Fujikawa	R	32	54	0	50.7	57	19	5	44	20	19
James Russell	L	27	72	0	68.3	56	24	6	67	31	29
Shawn Camp	R	37	65	0	64.3	43	19	6	66	30	28
Arodys Vizcaino	R	22	48	0	44.7	46	17	5	42	20	19
Alberto Cabrera	R	24	72	0	79.3	83	39	9	73	40	37
Kerry Wood	R	36	29	0	27.3	29	15	3	24	13	12
Michael Bowden	R	26	56	0	69.7	63	36	8	65	35	33
Jason Berken	R	29	35	12	90.3	61	39	11	100	52	49
Lendy Castillo	R	24	22	6	41.3	33	20	5	43	24	22
Hector Rondon	R	25	5	4	13.3	11	5	2	14	7	7
Andrew Carpenter	R	28	36	12	94.3	69	38	13	101	56	52
Cory Wade	R	30	49	0	60.3	45	18	8	62	32	30
Chris Rusin	L	26	27	26	134.3	79	54	16	154	82	77
Miguel Socolovich	R	26	39	0	58.3	50	33	6	57	32	30
Casey Coleman	R	25	29	19	112.0	76	51	14	124	70	65
Rodrigo Lopez	R	37	22	18	102.3	58	38	15	117	64	60
Jaye Chapman	R	26	51	0	62.7	57	43	7	61	35	33
Horacio Ramirez	L	33	19	2	28.3	12	9	4	34	18	17
Jensen Lewis	R	29	45	0	48.0	34	24	6	51	28	26
Robert Whitenack	R	24	15	15	57.0	32	33	7	63	37	35
Manuel Corpas	R	30	61	0	71.7	45	27	9	76	41	38
Blake Parker	R	28	41	0	50.3	44	28	7	51	30	28
Rafael Dolis	R	25	54	0	64.3	44	35	6	66	37	35
Brooks Raley	L	25	23	23	119.3	65	48	15	146	79	74
Seth McClung	R	32	20	16	90.0	52	63	10	102	62	58
Trey McNutt	R	23	29	18	88.3	52	53	13	107	65	61
Ryan Rowland-Smith	L	30	27	15	92.0	57	47	15	115	68	64

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Jeff Samardzija	169.0	714	24.1%	7.6%	.288	3.62	3.52	90	87
Edwin Jackson	186.7	803	19.8%	7.5%	.292	3.91	3.66	97	91
Matt Garza	151.7	643	21.8%	7.5%	.283	3.68	3.69	91	92
Scott Baker	111.7	476	21.0%	6.3%	.296	3.95	3.82	98	95
Carlos Villanueva	110.7	475	21.0%	8.6%	.278	3.98	4.04	99	100
Travis Wood	171.0	747	18.1%	7.9%	.292	4.53	4.39	112	109
Scott Feldman	108.7	472	16.7%	6.6%	.299	4.31	3.87	107	96
Carlos Marmol	64.3	285	31.9%	16.1%	.297	3.36	3.61	83	89
Kyuji Fujikawa	50.7	215	26.5%	8.8%	.295	3.38	3.37	84	83
James Russell	68.3	296	18.9%	8.1%	.292	3.82	3.39	95	84
Shawn Camp	64.3	278	15.5%	6.8%	.289	3.92	3.72	97	92
Arodys Vizcaino	44.7	193	23.8%	8.8%	.303	3.83	3.77	95	93
Alberto Cabrera	79.3	350	23.7%	11.1%	.298	4.20	4.07	104	101
Kerry Wood	27.3	121	24.0%	12.4%	.292	3.95	4.16	98	103
Michael Bowden	69.7	310	20.3%	11.6%	.285	4.26	4.37	106	108
Jason Berken	90.3	410	14.9%	9.5%	.303	4.88	4.76	121	118
Lendy Castillo	41.3	187	17.7%	10.7%	.304	4.79	4.81	119	119
Hector Rondon	13.3	59	18.7%	8.5%	.301	4.73	4.75	117	118
Andrew Carpenter	94.3	422	16.4%	9.0%	.296	4.96	4.76	123	118
Cory Wade	60.3	261	17.2%	6.9%	.287	4.48	4.27	111	106
Chris Rusin	134.3	611	12.9%	8.8%	.305	5.16	4.85	128	120
Miguel Socolovich	58.3	265	18.9%	12.5%	.295	4.63	4.52	115	112
Casey Coleman	112.0	511	14.9%	10.0%	.302	5.22	4.81	129	119
Rodrigo Lopez	102.3	462	12.6%	8.2%	.295	5.28	5.10	131	126
Jaye Chapman	62.7	292	19.5%	14.7%	.300	4.74	4.83	117	120
Horacio Ramirez	28.3	128	9.4%	7.0%	.297	5.40	5.14	134	127
Jensen Lewis	48.0	219	15.5%	11.0%	.296	4.88	4.87	121	121
Robert Whitenack	57.0	267	12.0%	12.4%	.293	5.53	5.52	137	137
Manuel Corpas	71.7	318	14.1%	8.5%	.289	4.77	4.64	118	115
Blake Parker	50.3	230	19.1%	12.2%	.297	5.01	4.94	124	122
Rafael Dolis	64.3	294	15.0%	11.9%	.293	4.90	4.71	121	117
Brooks Raley	119.3	552	11.8%	8.7%	.315	5.58	5.02	138	124
Seth McClung	90.0	435	12.0%	14.5%	.303	5.80	5.62	144	139
Trey McNutt	88.3	425	12.2%	12.5%	.312	6.22	5.84	154	145
Ryan Rowland-Smith	92.0	438	13.0%	10.7%	.319	6.26	5.67	155	140

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Jeff Samardzija	169.0	9.16	2.88	1.01	109	3.1	Kirk McCaskill
Edwin Jackson	186.7	7.66	2.89	0.92	101	2.8	Kris Benson
Matt Garza	151.7	8.31	2.85	1.01	107	2.7	Kelly Downs
Scott Baker	111.7	8.06	2.42	1.13	100	1.6	Hideki Irabu
Carlos Villanueva	110.7	8.13	3.33	1.14	99	1.4	Jorge Sosa
Travis Wood	171.0	7.11	3.11	1.21	87	1.3	Lance Painter
Scott Feldman	108.7	6.54	2.57	0.91	92	1.0	Sean Bergman
Carlos Marmol	64.3	12.74	6.44	0.70	117	0.9	Ryne Duren
Kyuji Fujikawa	50.7	10.12	3.37	0.89	117	0.7	Robb Nen
James Russell	68.3	7.38	3.16	0.79	103	0.5	Bill Moloney
Shawn Camp	64.3	6.02	2.66	0.84	101	0.4	Rick White
Arodys Vizcaino	44.7	9.26	3.42	1.01	103	0.3	Antonio Osuna
Alberto Cabrera	79.3	9.42	4.43	1.02	94	0.2	Toby Borland
Kerry Wood	27.3	9.56	4.95	0.99	100	0.2	Rich DeLucia
Michael Bowden	69.7	8.13	4.65	1.03	93	0.2	Justin Hedrick
Jason Berken	90.3	6.08	3.89	1.10	81	0.1	Andy Mitchell
Lendy Castillo	41.3	7.19	4.36	1.09	82	0.1	Nick DeBarr
Hector Rondon	13.3	7.44	3.38	1.35	83	0.1	Luis Vasquez
Andrew Carpenter	94.3	6.59	3.63	1.24	80	0.0	Keith Linebarger
Cory Wade	60.3	6.72	2.69	1.19	88	0.0	Dan Giese
Chris Rusin	134.3	5.29	3.62	1.07	76	0.0	Wes Whisler
Miguel Socolovich	58.3	7.72	5.09	0.93	85	-0.1	Marc Pisciotta
Casey Coleman	112.0	6.11	4.10	1.13	76	-0.2	Dane Anthony
Rodrigo Lopez	102.3	5.10	3.34	1.32	75	-0.2	Aaron Sele
Jaye Chapman	62.7	8.18	6.17	1.00	83	-0.2	Marc Pisciotta
Horacio Ramirez	28.3	3.82	2.86	1.27	73	-0.2	Bob Miller
Jensen Lewis	48.0	6.38	4.50	1.13	81	-0.3	Jarod Juelsgaard
Robert Whitenack	57.0	5.05	5.21	1.11	71	-0.3	Tim Harrell
Manuel Corpas	71.7	5.65	3.39	1.13	83	-0.3	Brandon Puffer
Blake Parker	50.3	7.87	5.01	1.25	79	-0.3	Doug Gogolewski
Rafael Dolis	64.3	6.16	4.90	0.84	81	-0.4	Blake Mayo
Brooks Raley	119.3	4.90	3.62	1.13	71	-0.6	Wes Whisler
Seth McClung	90.0	5.20	6.30	1.00	68	-0.8	Russ Ortiz
Trey McNutt	88.3	5.30	5.40	1.33	63	-1.2	Jim Henderson
Ryan Rowland-Smith	92.0	5.58	4.60	1.47	63	-1.3	Chris Peters

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.