2013 ZiPS Projections – Chicago White Sox

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Chicago White Sox. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Royals.

Batters
To their credit, Chicago has had some success in populating their starting lineup with cost-controlled talent. Alejandro De Aza, Gordon Beckham, Tyler Flowers, Dayan Viciedo: all are either in their first season of arbitration or earlier, and all are likely to be worth more than their salaries in 2012. What’s less fortunate is that none of them is likely to be any better than average, if that.

Even more unfortunate is that no other field player on the team is projected to be much better than average, either. Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, and Alex Rios will make more than $40 million combined in 2013, but are forecast to produce just six wins or so — or, about $7 million a win.

Pitchers
The White Sox’ rotation is perhaps the deepest we’ve seen among the 10-plus teams projected so far. Only Yu Darvish‘s projected WAR is distinctly higher so far than Chris Sale‘s — nor are there any black holes after him (i.e. Sale). Left-hander John Danks‘ line is weaker than White Sox fans would probably hope, especially considering how the club owes him $57 million over the next four years; however, that’s perhaps offset by other left-hander Jose Quintana’s surprisingly promising forecast.

As strong as Chicago’s rotation appears to be, the club’s bullpen is even stronger — relative to other teams we’ve considered here so far, at least. All five of the Sox’ top relievers are projected to be worth at least a win, which appears to be a rare accomplishment.

Bench/Prospects
While the present rotation is strong, it appears as though recent attempts to acquire front-line pitching have been unsuccessful. Simon Castro (acquired from San Diego in the Carlos Quentin) and Nestor Molina (who arrived from Toronto for reliever Sergio Santos), for example, have failed to build off of occasionally promising minor-league resumes. On the other hand, ZiPS does introduce us to Tyler Saladino, a 23-year-old shortstop prospect projected to approach something like major-league average, via a combo package of (a) fair power, (b) fair baserunning, and (c) positional adjustment.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the White Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Alexei Ramirez	R	31	SS	636	69	159	26	3	13	70	13	7
Paul Konerko	R	37	1B	559	60	140	21	0	26	80	0	0
Alejandro De Aza	L	29	CF	564	72	138	29	6	9	50	23	11
Alex Rios	R	32	RF	609	75	155	31	4	18	70	20	7
Jeff Keppinger	R	33	3B	454	51	120	19	1	8	45	1	1
Adam Dunn	L	33	DH	553	65	95	19	0	29	79	1	1
Gordon Beckham	R	26	2B	596	68	134	29	1	14	61	6	5
Jose Lopez	R	29	3B	418	43	103	23	0	13	55	2	1
Dayan Viciedo	R	24	LF	603	66	147	24	1	23	77	1	1
Tyler Saladino	R	23	SS	570	65	113	20	5	11	45	20	8
Hector Gimenez	B	30	C	376	38	80	18	1	12	48	2	1
Trayce Thompson	R	22	CF	629	72	117	27	4	23	77	13	4
Jordan Danks	L	26	CF	478	55	98	19	3	10	40	12	5
Tyler Flowers	R	27	C	331	38	60	12	1	13	33	2	1
Josh Phegley	R	25	C	405	39	92	18	1	8	42	2	1
Orlando Hudson	B	35	2B	406	48	87	12	5	7	40	9	3
Carlos Sanchez	B	21	SS	551	56	127	20	4	2	42	16	15
DeWayne Wise	L	35	CF	287	32	64	12	4	8	28	12	3
Marcus Semien	R	22	SS	456	51	92	21	3	9	42	7	7
Steve Tolleson	R	29	SS	419	45	88	17	1	7	34	9	3
Bryan Anderson	L	26	C	386	35	78	14	1	8	31	1	0
Brent Morel	R	26	3B	452	48	104	20	2	8	39	7	4
Stefan Gartrell	R	29	RF	522	60	107	22	1	21	64	5	1
Josh Bell	B	26	3B	534	57	109	22	2	16	60	3	4
Angel Sanchez	R	29	SS	428	47	96	14	2	3	38	4	2
Andy Wilkins	L	24	1B	565	62	117	27	1	22	73	3	3
Cyle Hankerd	R	28	RF	302	34	64	14	1	9	38	2	2
Greg Golson	R	27	RF	513	51	112	20	6	8	39	17	4
Blake Tekotte	L	26	CF	515	60	100	20	4	14	49	19	12
Andy Gonzalez	R	31	3B	404	36	77	13	1	7	31	3	2
Jared Mitchell	L	24	CF	497	52	84	20	6	11	44	12	6
Keenyn Walker	B	22	CF	474	49	85	16	3	3	33	36	18
Seth Loman	L	27	1B	548	52	111	20	1	19	60	1	2
Tommy Manzella	R	30	SS	417	35	74	11	1	4	30	5	4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Alexei Ramirez	636	4.7%	12.4%	.120	.290	.269	.306	.389	.298
Paul Konerko	559	9.7%	14.7%	.201	.292	.284	.360	.485	.356
Alejandro De Aza	564	7.4%	17.9%	.134	.323	.272	.333	.406	.319
Alex Rios	609	4.6%	14.3%	.163	.290	.271	.307	.434	.318
Jeff Keppinger	454	6.4%	6.6%	.109	.294	.289	.337	.398	.318
Adam Dunn	553	15.6%	34.5%	.230	.270	.206	.333	.436	.331
Gordon Beckham	596	6.9%	17.4%	.137	.285	.250	.312	.387	.303
Jose Lopez	418	3.8%	12.2%	.157	.269	.260	.290	.417	.303
Dayan Viciedo	603	5.8%	21.1%	.170	.302	.264	.314	.434	.322
Tyler Saladino	570	9.5%	23.5%	.125	.283	.226	.309	.351	.294
Hector Gimenez	376	6.6%	25.3%	.162	.281	.231	.281	.393	.289
Trayce Thompson	629	7.9%	35.5%	.183	.289	.207	.276	.390	.290
Jordan Danks	478	9.6%	31.2%	.131	.331	.232	.309	.363	.294
Tyler Flowers	331	11.2%	34.7%	.185	.297	.211	.315	.396	.312
Josh Phegley	405	4.4%	19.8%	.116	.285	.241	.280	.357	.277
Orlando Hudson	406	9.4%	17.7%	.119	.282	.241	.315	.360	.296
Carlos Sanchez	551	6.0%	20.7%	.068	.323	.255	.310	.323	.275
DeWayne Wise	287	4.5%	23.7%	.163	.287	.238	.276	.401	.296
Marcus Semien	456	8.3%	25.2%	.133	.290	.225	.295	.358	.281
Steve Tolleson	419	8.1%	19.8%	.106	.278	.233	.297	.339	.283
Bryan Anderson	386	8.0%	26.4%	.115	.290	.223	.293	.338	.280
Brent Morel	452	5.1%	19.5%	.114	.294	.246	.286	.360	.280
Stefan Gartrell	522	7.7%	29.9%	.183	.288	.225	.292	.408	.305
Josh Bell	534	7.5%	30.0%	.152	.294	.224	.283	.376	.284
Angel Sanchez	428	7.5%	12.4%	.070	.282	.250	.310	.320	.275
Andy Wilkins	565	8.8%	23.9%	.187	.267	.229	.298	.416	.308
Cyle Hankerd	302	5.6%	20.9%	.159	.274	.236	.308	.395	.306
Greg Golson	513	4.5%	26.3%	.117	.310	.235	.276	.352	.276
Blake Tekotte	515	8.3%	30.3%	.152	.294	.216	.288	.368	.284
Andy Gonzalez	404	10.6%	22.5%	.101	.269	.216	.303	.317	.276
Jared Mitchell	497	9.9%	41.9%	.148	.329	.192	.279	.340	.272
Keenyn Walker	474	9.7%	36.7%	.074	.333	.202	.285	.276	.255
Seth Loman	548	5.8%	31.0%	.159	.298	.223	.294	.382	.295
Tommy Manzella	417	6.5%	32.1%	.066	.286	.194	.250	.260	.225

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Alexei Ramirez	636	4.4	86	7	2.7	Rick Burleson
Paul Konerko	559	6.6	125	-5	2.5	Fred McGriff
Alejandro De Aza	564	5.0	98	1	2.2	Randy Winn
Alex Rios	609	5.1	97	2	1.7	Juan Encarnacion
Jeff Keppinger	454	5.1	97	-1	1.6	Bill Madlock
Adam Dunn	553	4.9	105	0	1.5	Richie Sexson
Gordon Beckham	596	4.3	87	0	1.4	Joe Randa
Jose Lopez	418	4.4	88	3	1.4	Kazuo Matsui
Dayan Viciedo	603	5.0	99	-1	1.3	Walter Young
Tyler Saladino	570	3.9	78	-2	1.3	Ken Jackson
Hector Gimenez	376	3.9	79	2	1.3	Alvin Colina
Trayce Thompson	629	3.8	77	3	1.2	Wladimir Balentien
Jordan Danks	478	4.0	80	4	1.2	Andy Tomberlin
Tyler Flowers	331	4.3	91	-3	1.1	David Ross
Josh Phegley	405	3.6	70	3	1.0	Jason Hill
Orlando Hudson	406	4.1	82	1	1.0	Kazuo Matsui
Carlos Sanchez	551	3.3	71	4	0.8	Manuel Lee
DeWayne Wise	287	4.2	80	2	0.8	Jalal Leach
Marcus Semien	456	3.5	75	0	0.8	Giomar Guevara
Steve Tolleson	419	3.6	71	-1	0.7	Nick Ortiz
Bryan Anderson	386	3.5	70	-2	0.6	Ray Stephens
Brent Morel	452	3.7	73	1	0.5	Juan Portes
Stefan Gartrell	522	4.2	86	0	0.5	John Nelson
Josh Bell	534	3.6	76	-1	0.5	Les Pearsey
Angel Sanchez	428	3.6	71	-4	0.3	Joe Funaro
Andy Wilkins	565	4.3	90	-1	0.3	Tom Forrester
Cyle Hankerd	302	4.2	88	-1	0.2	Mike Bell
Greg Golson	513	3.6	68	5	0.1	Tommy Murphy
Blake Tekotte	515	3.5	76	-3	0.1	Brad Snyder
Andy Gonzalez	404	3.3	68	-1	0.1	Jason Wood
Jared Mitchell	497	3.2	66	-1	-0.1	Mickey Hall
Keenyn Walker	474	2.7	53	2	-0.4	Paul Rodgers
Seth Loman	548	3.8	81	-4	-0.6	Ivan Cruz
Tommy Manzella	417	2.1	38	0	-0.8	Chris Petersen

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Chris Sale	L	24	28	28	175.7	174	52	19	156	72	67
Jake Peavy	R	32	25	25	159.3	136	38	20	154	76	71
Gavin Floyd	R	30	29	28	172.7	141	54	20	173	88	82
Jose Quintana	L	24	36	32	186.3	116	67	20	200	97	91
John Danks	L	28	20	20	126.0	93	41	15	129	67	63
Dylan Axelrod	R	27	27	21	126.7	85	52	16	140	75	70
Nate Jones	R	27	65	0	71.0	64	32	7	68	33	31
Matt Thornton	L	36	60	0	55.3	55	18	5	51	24	22
Hector Santiago	L	25	45	7	81.3	88	50	12	71	43	40
Addison Reed	R	24	59	0	66.7	70	21	8	62	31	29
Jesse Crain	R	31	58	0	54.0	62	25	7	44	24	22
Donnie Veal	L	28	60	0	59.0	55	41	4	53	29	27
Brian Omogrosso	R	29	37	0	49.0	40	23	7	51	29	27
Simon Castro	R	25	23	23	115.7	69	46	20	136	79	74
Brandon Kloess	R	28	38	0	63.3	45	37	7	69	40	37
Nestor Molina	R	24	25	23	123.3	74	38	23	150	86	80
Brian Bruney	R	31	31	0	32.7	27	23	4	34	21	20
Deunte Heath	R	27	37	7	69.7	58	47	11	74	48	45
David Purcey	L	31	44	0	47.7	38	38	6	49	32	30
Daniel Moskos	L	27	46	0	47.3	32	33	6	52	32	30
Jeff Gray	R	31	39	0	47.3	25	23	7	56	33	31
Charlie Leesman	L	26	26	26	122.3	66	86	16	145	90	84
Charlie Shirek	R	27	26	18	112.7	52	40	21	143	83	78
Leyson Septimo	L	27	45	0	44.7	43	49	8	43	34	32
Ramon Troncoso	R	30	49	0	63.0	39	35	11	74	46	43
Jhan Marinez	R	24	49	0	56.0	50	49	10	58	42	39
Matt Zaleski	R	31	25	22	113.0	72	52	23	139	89	83
Jacob Petricka	R	25	26	26	112.3	68	98	21	135	96	90

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Chris Sale	175.7	735	23.7%	7.1%	.282	3.43	3.39	80	79
Jake Peavy	159.3	670	20.3%	5.7%	.286	4.01	3.83	93	89
Gavin Floyd	172.7	745	18.9%	7.2%	.295	4.27	4.06	99	95
Jose Quintana	186.3	826	14.0%	8.1%	.292	4.40	4.36	102	101
John Danks	126.0	548	17.0%	7.5%	.288	4.50	4.17	105	97
Dylan Axelrod	126.7	572	14.9%	9.1%	.302	4.97	4.79	116	112
Nate Jones	71.0	313	20.4%	10.2%	.292	3.93	3.84	92	89
Matt Thornton	55.3	235	23.4%	7.7%	.297	3.58	3.15	83	73
Hector Santiago	81.3	365	24.1%	13.7%	.285	4.43	4.95	103	115
Addison Reed	66.7	283	24.7%	7.4%	.298	3.92	3.54	91	83
Jesse Crain	54.0	231	26.8%	10.8%	.272	3.67	3.76	85	88
Donnie Veal	59.0	271	20.3%	15.1%	.293	4.12	4.40	96	102
Brian Omogrosso	49.0	221	18.1%	10.4%	.295	4.96	4.85	115	113
Simon Castro	115.7	529	13.0%	8.7%	.300	5.76	5.52	134	129
Brandon Kloess	63.3	296	15.2%	12.5%	.306	5.26	5.01	122	117
Nestor Molina	123.3	558	13.3%	6.8%	.306	5.84	5.44	136	127
Brian Bruney	32.7	155	17.4%	14.8%	.300	5.51	5.24	128	122
Deunte Heath	69.7	330	17.6%	14.2%	.300	5.81	5.68	135	132
David Purcey	47.7	230	16.5%	16.5%	.294	5.66	5.59	132	130
Daniel Moskos	47.3	227	14.1%	14.5%	.301	5.70	5.55	133	129
Jeff Gray	47.3	221	11.3%	10.4%	.301	5.89	5.55	137	129
Charlie Leesman	122.3	598	11.0%	14.4%	.306	6.18	6.02	144	140
Charlie Shirek	112.7	521	10.0%	7.7%	.305	6.23	5.87	145	137
Leyson Septimo	44.7	226	19.0%	21.7%	.284	6.45	6.92	150	161
Ramon Troncoso	63.0	298	13.1%	11.7%	.301	6.14	5.89	143	137
Jhan Marinez	56.0	275	18.2%	17.8%	.296	6.27	6.42	146	149
Matt Zaleski	113.0	530	13.6%	9.8%	.309	6.61	6.03	154	140
Jacob Petricka	112.3	570	11.9%	17.2%	.305	7.21	7.17	168	167

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Chris Sale	175.7	8.91	2.66	0.97	128	5.0	Vida Blue
Jake Peavy	159.3	7.68	2.15	1.13	110	3.4	Dennis Eckersley
Gavin Floyd	172.7	7.35	2.81	1.04	103	3.2	Kevin Brown
Jose Quintana	186.3	5.60	3.24	0.97	100	3.1	Jimmy Anderson
John Danks	126.0	6.64	2.93	1.07	98	2.0	Chris Hammond
Dylan Axelrod	126.7	6.04	3.69	1.14	89	1.2	Mike LaCoss
Nate Jones	71.0	8.11	4.06	0.89	112	1.1	Bryce Florie
Matt Thornton	55.3	8.95	2.93	0.81	123	1.1	Dan Plesac
Hector Santiago	81.3	9.74	5.54	1.33	99	1.1	John Rocker
Addison Reed	66.7	9.45	2.83	1.08	112	1.0	Huston Street
Jesse Crain	54.0	10.33	4.17	1.17	120	1.0	Troy Percival
Donnie Veal	59.0	8.39	6.25	0.61	107	0.8	Matt Whisenant
Brian Omogrosso	49.0	7.35	4.22	1.29	89	0.1	Ernie Camacho
Simon Castro	115.7	5.37	3.58	1.56	76	0.0	Andy Taulbee
Brandon Kloess	63.3	6.40	5.26	1.00	84	-0.1	Mike Bumstead
Nestor Molina	123.3	5.40	2.77	1.68	75	-0.1	Brian Meadows
Brian Bruney	32.7	7.43	6.33	1.10	80	-0.1	Moe Burtschy
Deunte Heath	69.7	7.49	6.07	1.42	76	-0.2	Rusty Ford
David Purcey	47.7	7.17	7.17	1.13	78	-0.3	Matt Whisenant
Daniel Moskos	47.3	6.09	6.28	1.14	77	-0.3	Dean Brueggemann
Jeff Gray	47.3	4.76	4.38	1.33	75	-0.4	Bob Scanlan
Charlie Leesman	122.3	4.86	6.33	1.18	71	-0.6	Greg Kubes
Charlie Shirek	112.7	4.15	3.19	1.68	71	-0.7	Vicente Bonilla
Leyson Septimo	44.7	8.66	9.87	1.61	68	-0.7	Roberto Duran
Ramon Troncoso	63.0	5.57	5.00	1.57	72	-0.7	Marty McLeary
Jhan Marinez	56.0	8.04	7.88	1.61	70	-0.7	Michael Doyne
Matt Zaleski	113.0	5.73	4.14	1.83	67	-1.2	Runelvys Hernandez
Jacob Petricka	112.3	5.45	7.85	1.68	61	-2.0	Tom Davey

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.