2013 ZiPS Projections – Chicago White Sox
Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Chicago White Sox. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.
Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Royals.
Batters
To their credit, Chicago has had some success in populating their starting lineup with cost-controlled talent. Alejandro De Aza, Gordon Beckham, Tyler Flowers, Dayan Viciedo: all are either in their first season of arbitration or earlier, and all are likely to be worth more than their salaries in 2012. What’s less fortunate is that none of them is likely to be any better than average, if that.
Even more unfortunate is that no other field player on the team is projected to be much better than average, either. Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, and Alex Rios will make more than $40 million combined in 2013, but are forecast to produce just six wins or so — or, about $7 million a win.
Pitchers
The White Sox’ rotation is perhaps the deepest we’ve seen among the 10-plus teams projected so far. Only Yu Darvish‘s projected WAR is distinctly higher so far than Chris Sale‘s — nor are there any black holes after him (i.e. Sale). Left-hander John Danks‘ line is weaker than White Sox fans would probably hope, especially considering how the club owes him $57 million over the next four years; however, that’s perhaps offset by other left-hander Jose Quintana’s surprisingly promising forecast.
As strong as Chicago’s rotation appears to be, the club’s bullpen is even stronger — relative to other teams we’ve considered here so far, at least. All five of the Sox’ top relievers are projected to be worth at least a win, which appears to be a rare accomplishment.
Bench/Prospects
While the present rotation is strong, it appears as though recent attempts to acquire front-line pitching have been unsuccessful. Simon Castro (acquired from San Diego in the Carlos Quentin) and Nestor Molina (who arrived from Toronto for reliever Sergio Santos), for example, have failed to build off of occasionally promising minor-league resumes. On the other hand, ZiPS does introduce us to Tyler Saladino, a 23-year-old shortstop prospect projected to approach something like major-league average, via a combo package of (a) fair power, (b) fair baserunning, and (c) positional adjustment.
Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the White Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.
Batters, Counting Stats
| Player | B | Age | PO | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexei Ramirez | R | 31 | SS | 636 | 69 | 159 | 26 | 3 | 13 | 70 | 13 | 7 |
| Paul Konerko | R | 37 | 1B | 559 | 60 | 140 | 21 | 0 | 26 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| Alejandro De Aza | L | 29 | CF | 564 | 72 | 138 | 29 | 6 | 9 | 50 | 23 | 11 |
| Alex Rios | R | 32 | RF | 609 | 75 | 155 | 31 | 4 | 18 | 70 | 20 | 7 |
| Jeff Keppinger | R | 33 | 3B | 454 | 51 | 120 | 19 | 1 | 8 | 45 | 1 | 1 |
| Adam Dunn | L | 33 | DH | 553 | 65 | 95 | 19 | 0 | 29 | 79 | 1 | 1 |
| Gordon Beckham | R | 26 | 2B | 596 | 68 | 134 | 29 | 1 | 14 | 61 | 6 | 5 |
| Jose Lopez | R | 29 | 3B | 418 | 43 | 103 | 23 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 2 | 1 |
| Dayan Viciedo | R | 24 | LF | 603 | 66 | 147 | 24 | 1 | 23 | 77 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyler Saladino | R | 23 | SS | 570 | 65 | 113 | 20 | 5 | 11 | 45 | 20 | 8 |
| Hector Gimenez | B | 30 | C | 376 | 38 | 80 | 18 | 1 | 12 | 48 | 2 | 1 |
| Trayce Thompson | R | 22 | CF | 629 | 72 | 117 | 27 | 4 | 23 | 77 | 13 | 4 |
| Jordan Danks | L | 26 | CF | 478 | 55 | 98 | 19 | 3 | 10 | 40 | 12 | 5 |
| Tyler Flowers | R | 27 | C | 331 | 38 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 13 | 33 | 2 | 1 |
| Josh Phegley | R | 25 | C | 405 | 39 | 92 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 42 | 2 | 1 |
| Orlando Hudson | B | 35 | 2B | 406 | 48 | 87 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 40 | 9 | 3 |
| Carlos Sanchez | B | 21 | SS | 551 | 56 | 127 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 42 | 16 | 15 |
| DeWayne Wise | L | 35 | CF | 287 | 32 | 64 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 12 | 3 |
| Marcus Semien | R | 22 | SS | 456 | 51 | 92 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 42 | 7 | 7 |
| Steve Tolleson | R | 29 | SS | 419 | 45 | 88 | 17 | 1 | 7 | 34 | 9 | 3 |
| Bryan Anderson | L | 26 | C | 386 | 35 | 78 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 1 | 0 |
| Brent Morel | R | 26 | 3B | 452 | 48 | 104 | 20 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 7 | 4 |
| Stefan Gartrell | R | 29 | RF | 522 | 60 | 107 | 22 | 1 | 21 | 64 | 5 | 1 |
| Josh Bell | B | 26 | 3B | 534 | 57 | 109 | 22 | 2 | 16 | 60 | 3 | 4 |
| Angel Sanchez | R | 29 | SS | 428 | 47 | 96 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 38 | 4 | 2 |
| Andy Wilkins | L | 24 | 1B | 565 | 62 | 117 | 27 | 1 | 22 | 73 | 3 | 3 |
| Cyle Hankerd | R | 28 | RF | 302 | 34 | 64 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 38 | 2 | 2 |
| Greg Golson | R | 27 | RF | 513 | 51 | 112 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 39 | 17 | 4 |
| Blake Tekotte | L | 26 | CF | 515 | 60 | 100 | 20 | 4 | 14 | 49 | 19 | 12 |
| Andy Gonzalez | R | 31 | 3B | 404 | 36 | 77 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 3 | 2 |
| Jared Mitchell | L | 24 | CF | 497 | 52 | 84 | 20 | 6 | 11 | 44 | 12 | 6 |
| Keenyn Walker | B | 22 | CF | 474 | 49 | 85 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 36 | 18 |
| Seth Loman | L | 27 | 1B | 548 | 52 | 111 | 20 | 1 | 19 | 60 | 1 | 2 |
| Tommy Manzella | R | 30 | SS | 417 | 35 | 74 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 4 |
***
Batters, Rates and Averages
| Player | PA | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | BA | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexei Ramirez | 636 | 4.7% | 12.4% | .120 | .290 | .269 | .306 | .389 | .298 |
| Paul Konerko | 559 | 9.7% | 14.7% | .201 | .292 | .284 | .360 | .485 | .356 |
| Alejandro De Aza | 564 | 7.4% | 17.9% | .134 | .323 | .272 | .333 | .406 | .319 |
| Alex Rios | 609 | 4.6% | 14.3% | .163 | .290 | .271 | .307 | .434 | .318 |
| Jeff Keppinger | 454 | 6.4% | 6.6% | .109 | .294 | .289 | .337 | .398 | .318 |
| Adam Dunn | 553 | 15.6% | 34.5% | .230 | .270 | .206 | .333 | .436 | .331 |
| Gordon Beckham | 596 | 6.9% | 17.4% | .137 | .285 | .250 | .312 | .387 | .303 |
| Jose Lopez | 418 | 3.8% | 12.2% | .157 | .269 | .260 | .290 | .417 | .303 |
| Dayan Viciedo | 603 | 5.8% | 21.1% | .170 | .302 | .264 | .314 | .434 | .322 |
| Tyler Saladino | 570 | 9.5% | 23.5% | .125 | .283 | .226 | .309 | .351 | .294 |
| Hector Gimenez | 376 | 6.6% | 25.3% | .162 | .281 | .231 | .281 | .393 | .289 |
| Trayce Thompson | 629 | 7.9% | 35.5% | .183 | .289 | .207 | .276 | .390 | .290 |
| Jordan Danks | 478 | 9.6% | 31.2% | .131 | .331 | .232 | .309 | .363 | .294 |
| Tyler Flowers | 331 | 11.2% | 34.7% | .185 | .297 | .211 | .315 | .396 | .312 |
| Josh Phegley | 405 | 4.4% | 19.8% | .116 | .285 | .241 | .280 | .357 | .277 |
| Orlando Hudson | 406 | 9.4% | 17.7% | .119 | .282 | .241 | .315 | .360 | .296 |
| Carlos Sanchez | 551 | 6.0% | 20.7% | .068 | .323 | .255 | .310 | .323 | .275 |
| DeWayne Wise | 287 | 4.5% | 23.7% | .163 | .287 | .238 | .276 | .401 | .296 |
| Marcus Semien | 456 | 8.3% | 25.2% | .133 | .290 | .225 | .295 | .358 | .281 |
| Steve Tolleson | 419 | 8.1% | 19.8% | .106 | .278 | .233 | .297 | .339 | .283 |
| Bryan Anderson | 386 | 8.0% | 26.4% | .115 | .290 | .223 | .293 | .338 | .280 |
| Brent Morel | 452 | 5.1% | 19.5% | .114 | .294 | .246 | .286 | .360 | .280 |
| Stefan Gartrell | 522 | 7.7% | 29.9% | .183 | .288 | .225 | .292 | .408 | .305 |
| Josh Bell | 534 | 7.5% | 30.0% | .152 | .294 | .224 | .283 | .376 | .284 |
| Angel Sanchez | 428 | 7.5% | 12.4% | .070 | .282 | .250 | .310 | .320 | .275 |
| Andy Wilkins | 565 | 8.8% | 23.9% | .187 | .267 | .229 | .298 | .416 | .308 |
| Cyle Hankerd | 302 | 5.6% | 20.9% | .159 | .274 | .236 | .308 | .395 | .306 |
| Greg Golson | 513 | 4.5% | 26.3% | .117 | .310 | .235 | .276 | .352 | .276 |
| Blake Tekotte | 515 | 8.3% | 30.3% | .152 | .294 | .216 | .288 | .368 | .284 |
| Andy Gonzalez | 404 | 10.6% | 22.5% | .101 | .269 | .216 | .303 | .317 | .276 |
| Jared Mitchell | 497 | 9.9% | 41.9% | .148 | .329 | .192 | .279 | .340 | .272 |
| Keenyn Walker | 474 | 9.7% | 36.7% | .074 | .333 | .202 | .285 | .276 | .255 |
| Seth Loman | 548 | 5.8% | 31.0% | .159 | .298 | .223 | .294 | .382 | .295 |
| Tommy Manzella | 417 | 6.5% | 32.1% | .066 | .286 | .194 | .250 | .260 | .225 |
***
Batters, Assorted Other
| Player | PA | RC/27 | OPS+ | Def | WAR | No.1 Comp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexei Ramirez | 636 | 4.4 | 86 | 7 | 2.7 | Rick Burleson |
| Paul Konerko | 559 | 6.6 | 125 | -5 | 2.5 | Fred McGriff |
| Alejandro De Aza | 564 | 5.0 | 98 | 1 | 2.2 | Randy Winn |
| Alex Rios | 609 | 5.1 | 97 | 2 | 1.7 | Juan Encarnacion |
| Jeff Keppinger | 454 | 5.1 | 97 | -1 | 1.6 | Bill Madlock |
| Adam Dunn | 553 | 4.9 | 105 | 0 | 1.5 | Richie Sexson |
| Gordon Beckham | 596 | 4.3 | 87 | 0 | 1.4 | Joe Randa |
| Jose Lopez | 418 | 4.4 | 88 | 3 | 1.4 | Kazuo Matsui |
| Dayan Viciedo | 603 | 5.0 | 99 | -1 | 1.3 | Walter Young |
| Tyler Saladino | 570 | 3.9 | 78 | -2 | 1.3 | Ken Jackson |
| Hector Gimenez | 376 | 3.9 | 79 | 2 | 1.3 | Alvin Colina |
| Trayce Thompson | 629 | 3.8 | 77 | 3 | 1.2 | Wladimir Balentien |
| Jordan Danks | 478 | 4.0 | 80 | 4 | 1.2 | Andy Tomberlin |
| Tyler Flowers | 331 | 4.3 | 91 | -3 | 1.1 | David Ross |
| Josh Phegley | 405 | 3.6 | 70 | 3 | 1.0 | Jason Hill |
| Orlando Hudson | 406 | 4.1 | 82 | 1 | 1.0 | Kazuo Matsui |
| Carlos Sanchez | 551 | 3.3 | 71 | 4 | 0.8 | Manuel Lee |
| DeWayne Wise | 287 | 4.2 | 80 | 2 | 0.8 | Jalal Leach |
| Marcus Semien | 456 | 3.5 | 75 | 0 | 0.8 | Giomar Guevara |
| Steve Tolleson | 419 | 3.6 | 71 | -1 | 0.7 | Nick Ortiz |
| Bryan Anderson | 386 | 3.5 | 70 | -2 | 0.6 | Ray Stephens |
| Brent Morel | 452 | 3.7 | 73 | 1 | 0.5 | Juan Portes |
| Stefan Gartrell | 522 | 4.2 | 86 | 0 | 0.5 | John Nelson |
| Josh Bell | 534 | 3.6 | 76 | -1 | 0.5 | Les Pearsey |
| Angel Sanchez | 428 | 3.6 | 71 | -4 | 0.3 | Joe Funaro |
| Andy Wilkins | 565 | 4.3 | 90 | -1 | 0.3 | Tom Forrester |
| Cyle Hankerd | 302 | 4.2 | 88 | -1 | 0.2 | Mike Bell |
| Greg Golson | 513 | 3.6 | 68 | 5 | 0.1 | Tommy Murphy |
| Blake Tekotte | 515 | 3.5 | 76 | -3 | 0.1 | Brad Snyder |
| Andy Gonzalez | 404 | 3.3 | 68 | -1 | 0.1 | Jason Wood |
| Jared Mitchell | 497 | 3.2 | 66 | -1 | -0.1 | Mickey Hall |
| Keenyn Walker | 474 | 2.7 | 53 | 2 | -0.4 | Paul Rodgers |
| Seth Loman | 548 | 3.8 | 81 | -4 | -0.6 | Ivan Cruz |
| Tommy Manzella | 417 | 2.1 | 38 | 0 | -0.8 | Chris Petersen |
***
Pitchers, Counting Stats
| Player | T | Age | G | GS | IP | SO | BB | HR | H | R | ER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | L | 24 | 28 | 28 | 175.7 | 174 | 52 | 19 | 156 | 72 | 67 |
| Jake Peavy | R | 32 | 25 | 25 | 159.3 | 136 | 38 | 20 | 154 | 76 | 71 |
| Gavin Floyd | R | 30 | 29 | 28 | 172.7 | 141 | 54 | 20 | 173 | 88 | 82 |
| Jose Quintana | L | 24 | 36 | 32 | 186.3 | 116 | 67 | 20 | 200 | 97 | 91 |
| John Danks | L | 28 | 20 | 20 | 126.0 | 93 | 41 | 15 | 129 | 67 | 63 |
| Dylan Axelrod | R | 27 | 27 | 21 | 126.7 | 85 | 52 | 16 | 140 | 75 | 70 |
| Nate Jones | R | 27 | 65 | 0 | 71.0 | 64 | 32 | 7 | 68 | 33 | 31 |
| Matt Thornton | L | 36 | 60 | 0 | 55.3 | 55 | 18 | 5 | 51 | 24 | 22 |
| Hector Santiago | L | 25 | 45 | 7 | 81.3 | 88 | 50 | 12 | 71 | 43 | 40 |
| Addison Reed | R | 24 | 59 | 0 | 66.7 | 70 | 21 | 8 | 62 | 31 | 29 |
| Jesse Crain | R | 31 | 58 | 0 | 54.0 | 62 | 25 | 7 | 44 | 24 | 22 |
| Donnie Veal | L | 28 | 60 | 0 | 59.0 | 55 | 41 | 4 | 53 | 29 | 27 |
| Brian Omogrosso | R | 29 | 37 | 0 | 49.0 | 40 | 23 | 7 | 51 | 29 | 27 |
| Simon Castro | R | 25 | 23 | 23 | 115.7 | 69 | 46 | 20 | 136 | 79 | 74 |
| Brandon Kloess | R | 28 | 38 | 0 | 63.3 | 45 | 37 | 7 | 69 | 40 | 37 |
| Nestor Molina | R | 24 | 25 | 23 | 123.3 | 74 | 38 | 23 | 150 | 86 | 80 |
| Brian Bruney | R | 31 | 31 | 0 | 32.7 | 27 | 23 | 4 | 34 | 21 | 20 |
| Deunte Heath | R | 27 | 37 | 7 | 69.7 | 58 | 47 | 11 | 74 | 48 | 45 |
| David Purcey | L | 31 | 44 | 0 | 47.7 | 38 | 38 | 6 | 49 | 32 | 30 |
| Daniel Moskos | L | 27 | 46 | 0 | 47.3 | 32 | 33 | 6 | 52 | 32 | 30 |
| Jeff Gray | R | 31 | 39 | 0 | 47.3 | 25 | 23 | 7 | 56 | 33 | 31 |
| Charlie Leesman | L | 26 | 26 | 26 | 122.3 | 66 | 86 | 16 | 145 | 90 | 84 |
| Charlie Shirek | R | 27 | 26 | 18 | 112.7 | 52 | 40 | 21 | 143 | 83 | 78 |
| Leyson Septimo | L | 27 | 45 | 0 | 44.7 | 43 | 49 | 8 | 43 | 34 | 32 |
| Ramon Troncoso | R | 30 | 49 | 0 | 63.0 | 39 | 35 | 11 | 74 | 46 | 43 |
| Jhan Marinez | R | 24 | 49 | 0 | 56.0 | 50 | 49 | 10 | 58 | 42 | 39 |
| Matt Zaleski | R | 31 | 25 | 22 | 113.0 | 72 | 52 | 23 | 139 | 89 | 83 |
| Jacob Petricka | R | 25 | 26 | 26 | 112.3 | 68 | 98 | 21 | 135 | 96 | 90 |
***
Pitchers, Rates and Averages
| Player | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | BABIP | ERA | FIP | ERA- | FIP- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | 175.7 | 735 | 23.7% | 7.1% | .282 | 3.43 | 3.39 | 80 | 79 |
| Jake Peavy | 159.3 | 670 | 20.3% | 5.7% | .286 | 4.01 | 3.83 | 93 | 89 |
| Gavin Floyd | 172.7 | 745 | 18.9% | 7.2% | .295 | 4.27 | 4.06 | 99 | 95 |
| Jose Quintana | 186.3 | 826 | 14.0% | 8.1% | .292 | 4.40 | 4.36 | 102 | 101 |
| John Danks | 126.0 | 548 | 17.0% | 7.5% | .288 | 4.50 | 4.17 | 105 | 97 |
| Dylan Axelrod | 126.7 | 572 | 14.9% | 9.1% | .302 | 4.97 | 4.79 | 116 | 112 |
| Nate Jones | 71.0 | 313 | 20.4% | 10.2% | .292 | 3.93 | 3.84 | 92 | 89 |
| Matt Thornton | 55.3 | 235 | 23.4% | 7.7% | .297 | 3.58 | 3.15 | 83 | 73 |
| Hector Santiago | 81.3 | 365 | 24.1% | 13.7% | .285 | 4.43 | 4.95 | 103 | 115 |
| Addison Reed | 66.7 | 283 | 24.7% | 7.4% | .298 | 3.92 | 3.54 | 91 | 83 |
| Jesse Crain | 54.0 | 231 | 26.8% | 10.8% | .272 | 3.67 | 3.76 | 85 | 88 |
| Donnie Veal | 59.0 | 271 | 20.3% | 15.1% | .293 | 4.12 | 4.40 | 96 | 102 |
| Brian Omogrosso | 49.0 | 221 | 18.1% | 10.4% | .295 | 4.96 | 4.85 | 115 | 113 |
| Simon Castro | 115.7 | 529 | 13.0% | 8.7% | .300 | 5.76 | 5.52 | 134 | 129 |
| Brandon Kloess | 63.3 | 296 | 15.2% | 12.5% | .306 | 5.26 | 5.01 | 122 | 117 |
| Nestor Molina | 123.3 | 558 | 13.3% | 6.8% | .306 | 5.84 | 5.44 | 136 | 127 |
| Brian Bruney | 32.7 | 155 | 17.4% | 14.8% | .300 | 5.51 | 5.24 | 128 | 122 |
| Deunte Heath | 69.7 | 330 | 17.6% | 14.2% | .300 | 5.81 | 5.68 | 135 | 132 |
| David Purcey | 47.7 | 230 | 16.5% | 16.5% | .294 | 5.66 | 5.59 | 132 | 130 |
| Daniel Moskos | 47.3 | 227 | 14.1% | 14.5% | .301 | 5.70 | 5.55 | 133 | 129 |
| Jeff Gray | 47.3 | 221 | 11.3% | 10.4% | .301 | 5.89 | 5.55 | 137 | 129 |
| Charlie Leesman | 122.3 | 598 | 11.0% | 14.4% | .306 | 6.18 | 6.02 | 144 | 140 |
| Charlie Shirek | 112.7 | 521 | 10.0% | 7.7% | .305 | 6.23 | 5.87 | 145 | 137 |
| Leyson Septimo | 44.7 | 226 | 19.0% | 21.7% | .284 | 6.45 | 6.92 | 150 | 161 |
| Ramon Troncoso | 63.0 | 298 | 13.1% | 11.7% | .301 | 6.14 | 5.89 | 143 | 137 |
| Jhan Marinez | 56.0 | 275 | 18.2% | 17.8% | .296 | 6.27 | 6.42 | 146 | 149 |
| Matt Zaleski | 113.0 | 530 | 13.6% | 9.8% | .309 | 6.61 | 6.03 | 154 | 140 |
| Jacob Petricka | 112.3 | 570 | 11.9% | 17.2% | .305 | 7.21 | 7.17 | 168 | 167 |
***
Pitchers, Assorted Other
| Player | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA+ | WAR | No. 1 Comp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | 175.7 | 8.91 | 2.66 | 0.97 | 128 | 5.0 | Vida Blue |
| Jake Peavy | 159.3 | 7.68 | 2.15 | 1.13 | 110 | 3.4 | Dennis Eckersley |
| Gavin Floyd | 172.7 | 7.35 | 2.81 | 1.04 | 103 | 3.2 | Kevin Brown |
| Jose Quintana | 186.3 | 5.60 | 3.24 | 0.97 | 100 | 3.1 | Jimmy Anderson |
| John Danks | 126.0 | 6.64 | 2.93 | 1.07 | 98 | 2.0 | Chris Hammond |
| Dylan Axelrod | 126.7 | 6.04 | 3.69 | 1.14 | 89 | 1.2 | Mike LaCoss |
| Nate Jones | 71.0 | 8.11 | 4.06 | 0.89 | 112 | 1.1 | Bryce Florie |
| Matt Thornton | 55.3 | 8.95 | 2.93 | 0.81 | 123 | 1.1 | Dan Plesac |
| Hector Santiago | 81.3 | 9.74 | 5.54 | 1.33 | 99 | 1.1 | John Rocker |
| Addison Reed | 66.7 | 9.45 | 2.83 | 1.08 | 112 | 1.0 | Huston Street |
| Jesse Crain | 54.0 | 10.33 | 4.17 | 1.17 | 120 | 1.0 | Troy Percival |
| Donnie Veal | 59.0 | 8.39 | 6.25 | 0.61 | 107 | 0.8 | Matt Whisenant |
| Brian Omogrosso | 49.0 | 7.35 | 4.22 | 1.29 | 89 | 0.1 | Ernie Camacho |
| Simon Castro | 115.7 | 5.37 | 3.58 | 1.56 | 76 | 0.0 | Andy Taulbee |
| Brandon Kloess | 63.3 | 6.40 | 5.26 | 1.00 | 84 | -0.1 | Mike Bumstead |
| Nestor Molina | 123.3 | 5.40 | 2.77 | 1.68 | 75 | -0.1 | Brian Meadows |
| Brian Bruney | 32.7 | 7.43 | 6.33 | 1.10 | 80 | -0.1 | Moe Burtschy |
| Deunte Heath | 69.7 | 7.49 | 6.07 | 1.42 | 76 | -0.2 | Rusty Ford |
| David Purcey | 47.7 | 7.17 | 7.17 | 1.13 | 78 | -0.3 | Matt Whisenant |
| Daniel Moskos | 47.3 | 6.09 | 6.28 | 1.14 | 77 | -0.3 | Dean Brueggemann |
| Jeff Gray | 47.3 | 4.76 | 4.38 | 1.33 | 75 | -0.4 | Bob Scanlan |
| Charlie Leesman | 122.3 | 4.86 | 6.33 | 1.18 | 71 | -0.6 | Greg Kubes |
| Charlie Shirek | 112.7 | 4.15 | 3.19 | 1.68 | 71 | -0.7 | Vicente Bonilla |
| Leyson Septimo | 44.7 | 8.66 | 9.87 | 1.61 | 68 | -0.7 | Roberto Duran |
| Ramon Troncoso | 63.0 | 5.57 | 5.00 | 1.57 | 72 | -0.7 | Marty McLeary |
| Jhan Marinez | 56.0 | 8.04 | 7.88 | 1.61 | 70 | -0.7 | Michael Doyne |
| Matt Zaleski | 113.0 | 5.73 | 4.14 | 1.83 | 67 | -1.2 | Runelvys Hernandez |
| Jacob Petricka | 112.3 | 5.45 | 7.85 | 1.68 | 61 | -2.0 | Tom Davey |
***
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”
Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

Dan, what’s the variance with Sale’s 5.0 WAR? Can’t be as low as Verlander or Weaver. Wonder how much risk there is for his Cy Young contending numbers.
Dan Johnson is still a free agent. Shouldn’t he be listed here, with his last team?
and how is Quintana worth 3.0 WAR with those awful numbers? Compare to any other pitcher ZiPS has projected so far, his projected stats are much worse than pitchers with 1.5-2.5 WAR… ? Is ZiPS drinking the South Side Kool-aid?
I agree it seems a bit high, based on ERA+, but if you are looking at the raw numbers, those get a bit of a boost because of the park he plays in.
I would say it is not even certain that Quintana wins a rotation spot out of spring training. If healthy (and untraded)then Sale, Peavy, Danks and Floyd are pretty much locks, but aren’t they stretching out Santiago to be a starter? From what I have heard, the White Sox feel that he is an option as a fifth starter.
Comping Jeff Keppinger with Bill Madlock is hysterical.
That’s Madlock while Madlock was collapsing, remember.
So when Quintana struggles and/or Danks inevitably gets hurt for the entire season, whose got the best chance to step into the rotation: Hector Santiago, Charlie Leesman, Nestor Molina, Simon Castro, or Nate Jones?….personally, id love to see Jones in a starting role ala Alexi Ogando….i just think he could be a very good starter for the ChiSox.
What makes you think that? He only has two decent pitches, and walks more than 4 per 9
Danks projections seem to assume injury as he is only projected for 20 starts. While he has been on the DL each of the last two seasons, he has never made less than 26 starts until last year. So his projections might be low. Of course, that comes with the provision “if he is healthy” but that applies to all players, especially pitchers.
Yeah injuries are tough for projections, especially stuff like shoulders because of how unpredictable they are. Realistically, I think you have to look at the projection as a mean with a really high range — if he has actually recovered he’ll be substantially better, but if he hasn’t he’ll be substantially worse. The chances probably aren’t good that he actually posts THAT line.
I think Szym said something about the margin of error on projections numbers being in the final spreadsheet.
I forgot there was a baseball player named Roberto Duran.
There probably an athlete in almost every (warm weather) sport named Roberto Duran.
Do like Quintana or not ? They project a 3.1 WAR but compare him to Jimmy Anderson …one of those things has to be wrong
ZIPS is really high on Veal.
We’re all high on Veal.
Veal being a new street drug, I’m assuming.
Her?
Is she funny?
Well, at least White Sox fans can be secure in the fact that their team leads the league in Kaz Matsui comps.
Curious if you have Keppinger’s platoon splits yet, and also how that D breaks down between 2b and 3b (the latter where he seems a bit above average). Certainly seems like a great platoon sort.
This is more of a gripe against WAR, but how does Dunn get a 0 for defense and Konerko get a -5? Surely the floor of a defenders value should be that of a DH even if you have to truncate it.
I believe the baseline already includes a knock for DH, but the defensive value/number is simply for that player’s position, so it’d be in addition to the already included bonus/penalty.
Only Rafael Palmeiro is a Gold Glove DH.
Classic.
I’m confussed why Zips projects only 29 HRs for Dunn after he bounced back with 41 last year? They must also be expecting a few weeks on the DL for Sale as they project about 25 less inning than last year.
Kevin Brown as the comp for Gavin Floyd? Interesting…
Age 30 is the year that Kevin Brown started to break out although Brown had a much stronger GB profile than Floyd.
What’s the projection for how much hawk harrelson is going to suck?
I love Hawk Harrelson. I did as a player and even more as an announcer. I say nothing as GM.
Who is Trayce Thompson taking playing time from in order to get 600+ plate appearances?