2013 ZiPS Projections – Cincinnati Reds

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Cincinnati Reds. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cubs / Giants / Mets / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rockies / Royals / White Sox.

Batters
Something of which people never tire is to learn that there is both good news and also that there’s bad news. The bad news, in the case of the Cincinnati Reds, appears to be — at least so far as Dan Szymborski’s finely calibrated ZiPS projection system is concerned — appears to be that newly acquired Shin-Soo Choo is probably a pretty bad defensive center fielder. The good news, though, is that he’s still expected to be worth about three wins in 2013 — i.e. more than he produced in either 2011 or -12.

Otherwise, of some note — beyond the simple fact that the club’s offense is generally talented — is the not particularly optimistic projection for 34-year-old Ryan Ludwick, whom the Reds signed to a two-year, $15 million contract this offseason. In the present market, that’s not a horrible deal for a starting outfielder; however, Cincinnati will be looking to compete for the NL Central title this season, and will want at least average production from the position.

Pitchers
In a display of uncommon durability, five starters — Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, and Mike Leake — made a combined 161 starts for Cincinnati in 2012. Accordingly, ZiPS — which is rather conservative, generally, in this regard — projects two Reds pitchers (Cueto and Latos) to throw at least 190 innings, and another three (Arroyo, Bailey, and Leake) to cross the 160-inning threshold. The last of those (Leake) is unlikely to reach the mark in reality, however: it is generally understood that Aroldis Chapman, who was dominant in relief in 2012, will make the transition to the rotation this season.

Replacing Chapman at the back end of the Reds’ bullpen in 2013 will be Jonathan Broxton, whom the Reds signed to a three-year, $21 million deal at the end of November. His projection on a per-inning basis is encouraging, and there’s reason to believe that the addition of a cut fastball (about which, of course, ZiPS wouldn’t have any idea) will help him preserve the gains he exhibited after arriving in Cincinnati. Still, it’s also reasonable to wonder why a team would commit so substantially to a pitcher who, just the year before, was able only to find a one-year and $4 million contract with the Royals.

Bench/Prospects
Outfield prospect Billy Hamilton has mostly one tool (speed), but ZiPS indicates that he probably has enough of that one tool at this point so’s to make him something like a league-average player. Despite some offensive difficulties following a May promotion to Double-A last season, David Vidal also receives a relatively optimistic projection — relative to his age, if nothing else. Among pitchers, left-hander Tony Cingrani’s development bears watching. He was among the best starters last year at both High- and Double-A. His role for 2013 is uncertain, although ZiPS indicates he might be capable of throwing league-average innings as a starter right now.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Reds, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Joey Votto	L	29	1B	579	80	142	35	1	26	87	9	5
Jay Bruce	L	26	RF	623	86	142	28	4	32	101	8	5
Shin-Soo Choo	L	30	CF	594	78	142	27	3	21	76	18	6
Brandon Phillips	R	32	2B	645	85	166	32	2	17	78	14	6
Zack Cozart	R	27	SS	591	78	138	30	4	15	49	10	2
Todd Frazier	R	27	3B	552	66	124	28	4	21	76	10	4
Devin Mesoraco	R	25	C	405	44	89	21	2	14	49	1	2
Ryan Hanigan	R	32	C	327	25	76	11	0	4	28	0	0
Billy Hamilton	B	22	CF	651	78	157	18	11	2	47	54	17
Ryan Ludwick	R	34	LF	490	57	111	22	1	21	86	1	2
David Vidal	R	23	3B	570	62	124	28	1	15	72	3	3
Scott Rolen	R	38	3B	286	26	65	17	2	6	39	1	1
Chris Heisey	R	28	LF	389	50	92	16	3	14	46	7	2
Henry Rodriguez	B	23	3B	544	53	143	24	1	10	56	17	8
Nevin Ashley	R	28	C	345	32	69	11	2	7	33	3	2
Tucker Barnhart	B	22	C	418	39	92	19	2	4	37	1	3
Jack Hannahan	L	33	3B	347	34	73	14	1	7	38	1	1
Kris Negron	R	27	SS	478	53	94	15	4	10	40	15	4
Jason Donald	R	28	SS	444	53	97	18	3	7	36	10	4
Corky Miller	R	37	C	249	25	45	8	0	5	20	1	1
Marquez Smith	R	28	3B	397	45	87	19	1	11	42	2	0
Xavier Paul	L	28	LF	335	38	80	16	2	8	36	12	5
Mike Hessman	R	35	1B	431	55	82	18	1	26	72	0	1
Cesar Izturis	B	33	SS	243	20	56	7	2	1	16	4	2
Miguel Cairo	R	39	3B	193	18	43	8	2	4	22	3	2
Ryan LaMarre	R	24	CF	532	52	116	17	3	5	37	29	13
Emmanuel Burriss	B	28	2B	326	35	72	9	2	1	20	16	6
Neftali Soto	R	24	1B	563	59	124	25	1	23	74	1	1
Denis Phipps	R	27	CF	524	59	110	23	4	14	56	8	6
Joey Gathright	L	32	CF	161	16	35	4	0	0	12	5	3
Beau Mills	L	26	1B	465	46	102	21	1	14	63	1	1
Willie Harris	L	35	LF	288	29	55	12	1	5	25	5	4
Donald Lutz	L	24	LF	527	55	117	21	4	16	63	6	5
Derrick Robinson	B	25	LF	568	55	116	13	4	2	32	34	14

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Joey Votto	579	16.6%	18.8%	.242	.338	.300	.420	.542	.397
Jay Bruce	623	10.4%	24.4%	.240	.296	.258	.337	.498	.347
Shin-Soo Choo	594	10.9%	20.4%	.186	.323	.276	.369	.462	.361
Brandon Phillips	645	5.4%	12.4%	.147	.297	.279	.326	.426	.324
Zack Cozart	591	5.6%	19.1%	.151	.291	.252	.298	.403	.304
Todd Frazier	552	7.4%	24.6%	.197	.296	.247	.310	.444	.325
Devin Mesoraco	405	8.6%	21.0%	.184	.281	.245	.316	.429	.316
Ryan Hanigan	327	11.3%	10.1%	.081	.290	.269	.357	.350	.300
Billy Hamilton	651	8.6%	23.2%	.078	.354	.267	.330	.345	.305
Ryan Ludwick	490	8.4%	21.8%	.198	.286	.253	.321	.451	.330
David Vidal	570	5.8%	25.6%	.143	.297	.237	.286	.380	.287
Scott Rolen	286	6.6%	17.1%	.149	.282	.249	.304	.398	.305
Chris Heisey	389	5.7%	22.6%	.181	.306	.260	.313	.441	.324
Henry Rodriguez	544	4.4%	16.4%	.110	.320	.279	.312	.389	.304
Nevin Ashley	345	6.7%	25.5%	.116	.286	.223	.292	.339	.277
Tucker Barnhart	418	7.4%	21.1%	.092	.301	.241	.298	.333	.277
Jack Hannahan	347	8.9%	21.9%	.119	.288	.235	.307	.354	.292
Kris Negron	478	5.6%	26.2%	.122	.279	.217	.275	.339	.272
Jason Donald	444	6.5%	22.5%	.112	.304	.242	.306	.354	.291
Corky Miller	249	12.9%	17.3%	.111	.248	.216	.333	.327	.295
Marquez Smith	397	6.0%	24.7%	.148	.293	.238	.290	.386	.294
Xavier Paul	335	6.3%	22.4%	.143	.320	.261	.311	.404	.306
Mike Hessman	431	7.0%	33.9%	.250	.251	.209	.274	.459	.310
Cesar Izturis	243	3.7%	10.3%	.061	.272	.247	.280	.308	.257
Miguel Cairo	193	4.1%	13.5%	.134	.260	.242	.283	.376	.283
Ryan LaMarre	532	7.0%	26.3%	.079	.327	.241	.306	.320	.281
Emmanuel Burriss	326	6.1%	12.9%	.054	.280	.244	.299	.298	.265
Neftali Soto	563	5.5%	26.6%	.183	.286	.237	.286	.420	.305
Denis Phipps	524	6.1%	30.3%	.151	.306	.227	.278	.378	.284
Joey Gathright	161	5.0%	18.6%	.028	.294	.236	.278	.264	.239
Beau Mills	465	5.4%	21.7%	.151	.274	.236	.280	.387	.288
Willie Harris	288	9.7%	21.5%	.115	.266	.217	.301	.332	.275
Donald Lutz	527	5.1%	29.8%	.157	.315	.237	.285	.394	.290
Derrick Robinson	568	6.3%	21.1%	.053	.286	.224	.275	.277	.245

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Joey Votto	579	8.8	155	3	5.6	Todd Helton
Jay Bruce	623	6.1	120	2	3.2	Carlos Pena
Shin-Soo Choo	594	6.5	121	-9	3.1	Willie Crawford
Brandon Phillips	645	5.2	99	4	3.0	Johnny Logan
Zack Cozart	591	4.5	85	5	2.5	Eddie Miller
Todd Frazier	552	5.0	99	-2	1.9	Wade Rowdon
Devin Mesoraco	405	4.8	97	-1	1.8	Charles Johnson
Ryan Hanigan	327	4.6	90	4	1.7	Jerry Grote
Billy Hamilton	651	4.6	81	1	1.6	Milt Cuyler
Ryan Ludwick	490	5.2	104	-2	1.1	Jeff Conine
David Vidal	570	3.8	77	4	1.0	Russ Davis
Scott Rolen	286	4.3	86	3	0.9	Geoff Blum
Chris Heisey	389	5.1	99	0	0.9	Rod Allen
Henry Rodriguez	544	4.6	86	-4	0.9	Aurelio Rodriguez
Nevin Ashley	345	3.4	68	3	0.8	Francisco Morales
Tucker Barnhart	418	3.4	69	3	0.8	Donnie Scott
Jack Hannahan	347	3.8	76	3	0.7	Shanie Dugas
Kris Negron	478	3.4	64	2	0.7	Hector Tiburcio
Jason Donald	444	3.9	76	-3	0.6	Nick Green
Corky Miller	249	3.7	78	0	0.6	Rick Ferrell
Marquez Smith	397	4.0	79	0	0.6	Tim Olson
Xavier Paul	335	4.7	90	1	0.5	Leron Lee
Mike Hessman	431	4.2	92	0	0.2	Deron Johnson
Cesar Izturis	243	3.1	58	2	0.2	Tommy Thevenow
Miguel Cairo	193	3.7	75	-1	0.1	Mark Belanger
Ryan LaMarre	532	3.6	68	0	0.0	Vernon Thomas
Emmanuel Burriss	326	3.3	61	0	-0.1	Edgar Caceres
Neftali Soto	563	4.2	86	-2	-0.1	Willis Otanez
Denis Phipps	524	3.6	73	-3	-0.1	Mike Stellern
Joey Gathright	161	2.5	46	0	-0.4	Jim Buccheri
Beau Mills	465	3.8	76	0	-0.5	Tom Forrester
Willie Harris	288	3.3	69	-1	-0.5	Dann Howitt
Donald Lutz	527	3.9	79	-4	-0.6	Randy Byers
Derrick Robinson	568	2.8	49	3	-1.5	Angelo Nunley

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Johnny Cueto	R	27	31	31	192.7	146	51	17	182	76	71
Mat Latos	R	25	32	32	197.3	186	57	22	173	81	76
Aroldis Chapman	L	25	26	26	143.7	161	65	16	108	62	58
Homer Bailey	R	27	29	29	173.3	138	45	20	174	82	77
Sean Marshall	L	30	73	0	66.3	76	18	5	55	21	20
Mike Leake	R	25	29	27	166.7	114	41	25	179	91	85
Bronson Arroyo	R	36	26	26	164.7	99	37	28	174	90	84
Tony Cingrani	L	23	24	22	107.3	107	47	15	100	55	51
J.J. Hoover	R	25	63	0	65.0	73	29	7	53	26	24
Sam LeCure	R	29	49	0	60.0	63	22	7	51	25	23
Jonathan Broxton	R	29	48	0	47.7	46	18	5	44	20	19
Alfredo Simon	R	32	45	0	61.3	52	23	6	60	29	27
Nick Masset	R	31	45	0	42.7	43	18	5	39	19	18
Jose Arredondo	R	29	65	0	61.7	61	33	7	55	30	28
Chad Rogers	R	23	22	22	125.3	84	49	20	137	77	72
Will Ohman	L	35	50	0	40.3	36	17	5	38	20	19
Daniel Corcino	R	22	26	26	127.7	95	67	19	133	79	74
Logan Ondrusek	R	28	67	0	61.7	45	30	8	61	33	31
Kevin Whelan	R	29	35	0	36.0	34	26	6	35	24	22
Loek Van Mil	R	28	35	0	54.7	34	29	7	59	34	32
Kanekoa Texeira	R	27	37	2	52.7	28	30	7	59	34	32
Ismael Guillon	L	21	16	16	71.0	57	54	11	73	49	46
Drew Hayes	R	25	56	0	57.3	51	43	8	56	36	34
Pedro Villarreal	R	25	27	24	129.3	75	46	22	150	87	81
Justin Freeman	R	26	57	0	62.3	46	23	12	68	40	37
Carlos Contreras	R	22	39	0	50.3	41	32	9	52	33	31
Jeff Stevens	R	29	45	0	57.3	44	36	9	60	37	35
Nick Christiani	R	25	53	0	66.0	34	30	9	75	43	40
Wilkin De La Rosa	L	28	40	2	47.0	31	35	7	52	33	31
Carlos Fisher	R	30	48	0	56.0	48	49	9	56	40	37
Todd Redmond	R	28	26	25	138.0	100	52	32	157	96	90
Kyle Lotzkar	R	23	20	20	91.3	76	62	18	97	67	63
Greg Reynolds	R	27	25	22	131.3	56	47	24	160	93	87
Josh Ravin	R	25	23	12	64.0	46	57	12	72	51	48
Andrew Brackman	R	27	32	13	81.3	51	61	14	93	62	58
Curtis Partch	R	26	38	15	109.0	66	51	19	132	79	74
Chad Reineke	R	31	25	21	120.0	64	50	24	144	88	82
Jeff Marquez	R	28	21	18	92.7	45	46	17	113	72	67
Sean Gallagher	R	27	31	20	108.3	67	79	23	125	89	83

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Johnny Cueto	192.7	811	18.0%	6.3%	.282	3.32	3.65	83	91
Mat Latos	197.3	822	22.6%	6.9%	.273	3.47	3.48	87	87
Aroldis Chapman	143.7	604	26.7%	10.8%	.257	3.63	3.72	91	93
Homer Bailey	173.3	739	18.7%	6.1%	.291	4.00	3.85	100	96
Sean Marshall	66.3	272	28.0%	6.6%	.293	2.71	2.55	68	64
Mike Leake	166.7	720	15.8%	5.7%	.287	4.59	4.43	115	111
Bronson Arroyo	164.7	705	14.0%	5.2%	.272	4.59	4.81	115	120
Tony Cingrani	107.3	469	22.8%	10.0%	.290	4.28	4.43	107	111
J.J. Hoover	65.0	277	26.4%	10.5%	.277	3.32	3.63	83	91
Sam LeCure	60.0	253	24.9%	8.7%	.277	3.45	3.61	86	90
Jonathan Broxton	47.7	205	22.4%	8.8%	.291	3.59	3.66	90	92
Alfredo Simon	61.3	267	19.5%	8.6%	.297	3.96	3.89	99	97
Nick Masset	42.7	185	23.2%	9.7%	.288	3.80	3.80	95	95
Jose Arredondo	61.7	273	22.3%	12.1%	.281	4.09	4.10	102	103
Chad Rogers	125.3	562	14.9%	8.7%	.290	5.17	5.12	129	128
Will Ohman	40.3	176	20.5%	9.7%	.290	4.24	4.26	106	107
Daniel Corcino	127.7	583	16.3%	11.5%	.291	5.22	5.35	131	134
Logan Ondrusek	61.7	276	16.3%	10.9%	.277	4.52	4.68	113	117
Kevin Whelan	36.0	169	20.1%	15.4%	.287	5.50	5.71	138	143
Loek Van Mil	54.7	252	13.5%	11.5%	.292	5.27	5.27	132	132
Kanekoa Texeira	52.7	247	11.3%	12.1%	.290	5.47	5.52	137	138
Ismael Guillon	71.0	340	16.8%	15.9%	.291	5.83	6.00	146	150
Drew Hayes	57.3	271	18.8%	15.9%	.293	5.34	5.54	134	139
Pedro Villarreal	129.3	584	12.8%	7.9%	.296	5.64	5.42	141	136
Justin Freeman	62.3	278	16.6%	8.3%	.290	5.34	5.33	134	133
Carlos Contreras	50.3	235	17.5%	13.6%	.289	5.54	5.88	139	147
Jeff Stevens	57.3	268	16.4%	13.4%	.290	5.49	5.59	137	140
Nick Christiani	66.0	303	11.2%	9.9%	.292	5.45	5.25	136	131
Wilkin De La Rosa	47.0	228	13.6%	15.4%	.296	5.94	6.14	149	154
Carlos Fisher	56.0	273	17.6%	17.9%	.288	5.95	6.20	149	155
Todd Redmond	138.0	623	16.1%	8.3%	.290	5.87	5.90	147	148
Kyle Lotzkar	91.3	433	17.6%	14.3%	.292	6.21	6.19	155	155
Greg Reynolds	131.3	601	9.3%	7.8%	.292	5.96	5.85	149	146
Josh Ravin	64.0	321	14.3%	17.8%	.299	6.75	6.95	169	174
Andrew Brackman	81.3	398	12.8%	15.3%	.296	6.42	6.48	161	162
Curtis Partch	109.0	510	12.9%	10.0%	.309	6.11	5.72	153	143
Chad Reineke	120.0	554	11.6%	9.0%	.294	6.15	6.05	154	151
Jeff Marquez	92.7	437	10.3%	10.5%	.296	6.51	6.13	163	153
Sean Gallagher	108.3	529	12.7%	14.9%	.290	6.90	7.00	173	175

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Johnny Cueto	192.7	6.82	2.38	0.79	123	4.8	Roy Halladay
Mat Latos	197.3	8.48	2.60	1.00	118	4.5	John Thomson
Aroldis Chapman	143.7	10.08	4.07	1.00	113	3.0	Herb Score
Homer Bailey	173.3	7.17	2.34	1.04	102	2.8	Moose Haas
Sean Marshall	66.3	10.32	2.44	0.68	151	1.6	Chuck McElroy
Mike Leake	166.7	6.15	2.21	1.35	89	1.5	Chris Holt
Bronson Arroyo	164.7	5.41	2.02	1.53	89	1.5	Bill Gullickson
Tony Cingrani	107.3	8.97	3.94	1.26	96	1.4	Shawn Estes
J.J. Hoover	65.0	10.11	4.02	0.97	123	1.1	Bobby Jenks
Sam LeCure	60.0	9.45	3.30	1.05	118	0.9	Jason Frasor
Jonathan Broxton	47.7	8.68	3.40	0.94	114	0.6	Jay Powell
Alfredo Simon	61.3	7.63	3.38	0.88	103	0.5	Danny Kolb
Nick Masset	42.7	9.06	3.79	1.05	108	0.5	Mike MacDougal
Jose Arredondo	61.7	8.90	4.81	1.02	100	0.4	Calvin Jones
Chad Rogers	125.3	6.03	3.52	1.44	79	0.3	Zach McClellan
Will Ohman	40.3	8.04	3.80	1.12	96	0.2	Kevin Hickey
Daniel Corcino	127.7	6.70	4.72	1.34	78	0.2	Randy Veres
Logan Ondrusek	61.7	6.56	4.38	1.17	90	0.1	Jarod Juelsgaard
Kevin Whelan	36.0	8.50	6.50	1.50	74	-0.4	Bart Evans
Loek Van Mil	54.7	5.59	4.77	1.15	78	-0.4	Mike Zimmerman
Kanekoa Texeira	52.7	4.78	5.12	1.20	75	-0.4	Ed Sprague
Ismael Guillon	71.0	7.23	6.85	1.39	70	-0.4	Norm Charlton
Drew Hayes	57.3	8.01	6.75	1.26	77	-0.5	Bill Bene
Pedro Villarreal	129.3	5.22	3.20	1.53	73	-0.5	Pat Ahearne
Justin Freeman	62.3	6.65	3.32	1.73	77	-0.5	Dale Plummer
Carlos Contreras	50.3	7.34	5.73	1.61	74	-0.5	Agustin Montero
Jeff Stevens	57.3	6.91	5.65	1.41	74	-0.6	Marty McLeary
Nick Christiani	66.0	4.64	4.09	1.23	75	-0.6	Kevin Joseph
Wilkin De La Rosa	47.0	5.94	6.70	1.34	69	-0.6	James Wray
Carlos Fisher	56.0	7.71	7.88	1.45	69	-0.9	Marty McLeary
Todd Redmond	138.0	6.52	3.39	2.09	70	-0.9	Joe Law
Kyle Lotzkar	91.3	7.49	6.11	1.77	66	-1.0	Robert Person
Greg Reynolds	131.3	3.84	3.22	1.65	69	-1.0	Jon Asahina
Josh Ravin	64.0	6.47	8.02	1.69	61	-1.2	Jason Baker
Andrew Brackman	81.3	5.65	6.75	1.55	64	-1.2	Dallas Trahern
Curtis Partch	109.0	5.45	4.21	1.57	67	-1.2	Paul O’Malley
Chad Reineke	120.0	4.80	3.75	1.80	66	-1.2	R.A. Dickey
Jeff Marquez	92.7	4.37	4.47	1.65	63	-1.3	Mike Heathcott
Sean Gallagher	108.3	5.57	6.57	1.91	59	-2.1	Mike Romano

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.