2013 ZiPS Projections – Detroit Tigers

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Detroit Tigers. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Giants / Mets / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Reds / Rockies / Royals / White Sox.

Batters
On the one hand, we know that the league-average BABIP generally settles within the .290-.300 range. On the other, we also know that Tigers center fielder Austin Jackson has posted a .370 BABIP over his first three seasons (ca. 2000 plate appearances). On the third hand — this being one of those rare instances in which a third hand is present — we know that true-talent BABIP tends not to exceed about .350.

How does ZiPS handle a situation like this? Szymborski addressed a question along these very same lines on Wednesday, writing: “Short version: even at 1960 PA, you expect a player’s BABIP to regress ~43% toward mean.”

Otherwise, here’s a point of interest: Andy Dirks is likely as productive a major-league corner outfielder as Torii Hunter, whom Detroit signed to a two-year, $26 million contract this offseason — and is likely a full win better than the departed Delmon Young.

Pitchers
There’s a ceiling of sorts — because of how his arm could just fall off or whatever — there’s a ceiling in terms of what we can reasonably project a starting pitcher to produce in any given season. Whatever that ceiling is for present major leaguers, however, that’s more or less where Justin Verlander is. By comparison, Max Scherzer — an obviously transcendent and ecstatic and handsome and ethnically German talent — isn’t even expected by ZiPS to produce four wins.

Will the Tigers name Bruce Rondon to the closer’s role in 2013? It’s possible. What’s less possible is that he’s the Detroit reliever best suited to high-leverage innings. Joaquin Benoit, Brayan Villarreal, Octavio Dotel, Al Alburquerque, and even Drew Smyly: any of them would be an improvement over Rondon, according to Dan Szymborski’s computer math.

Bench/Prospects
Prospect analyst Marc Hulet recently ranked Nick Castellanos first among all Tigers prospects. His (Castellanos’s, not Hulet’s) profile suggests that — not entirely unlike Austin Jackson — he could sustain a high batting average on balls in play. Looking for an under-the-radar sort? ZiPS’ estimation of infield prospect Eugenio Suarez’s abilities might be more optimistic than those found in scouting reports. Among pitchers, it would seem almost a moral necessity to find a role for left-hander Drew Smyly: after posting a 96 xFIP- in 99.1 innings last year, he’s projected to pitch along those same lines in 2013.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Tigers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Miguel Cabrera	R	30	3B	662	96	180	38	0	35	112	4	2
Prince Fielder	L	29	1B	672	79	159	28	1	30	98	1	1
Austin Jackson	R	26	CF	667	94	154	26	10	15	57	16	8
Alex Avila	L	26	C	472	45	100	21	2	13	56	2	1
Torii Hunter	R	37	RF	559	73	146	21	1	18	84	6	3
Jhonny Peralta	R	31	SS	585	56	137	27	2	14	71	1	2
Omar Infante	R	31	2B	561	61	145	22	4	9	51	9	3
Andy Dirks	L	27	RF	486	62	124	22	3	12	49	11	3
Victor Martinez	B	34	DH	446	48	116	23	0	12	64	1	0
Eugenio Suarez	R	21	SS	620	64	128	28	4	12	55	15	11
Delmon Young	R	27	LF	605	64	158	30	1	19	85	2	2
Nick Castellanos	R	21	3B	632	57	155	29	3	14	59	5	5
Bryan Holaday	R	25	C	323	26	67	13	1	4	24	3	0
Ramon Cabrera	B	23	C	458	48	106	22	3	3	50	2	3
Danny Worth	R	27	2B	396	38	82	16	2	5	29	10	4
Tyler Collins	L	23	LF	516	49	121	26	3	10	58	12	3
Don Kelly	L	33	3B	264	30	60	7	2	5	22	5	1
Ramon Santiago	B	33	2B	289	25	63	8	2	4	23	1	1
Brennan Boesch	L	28	RF	537	59	127	25	3	15	62	7	3
Brayan Pena	B	31	C	226	19	54	11	1	3	27	1	1
Brad Davis	R	30	C	327	28	67	15	1	5	33	3	0
Quintin Berry	L	28	LF	493	55	102	16	4	3	36	32	5
Matt Tuiasosopo	R	27	3B	465	53	90	14	1	10	50	4	3
Daniel Dorn	L	28	1B	449	46	93	23	1	12	50	2	1
Jeff Kobernus	R	25	2B	464	46	110	15	2	3	38	31	11
Hernan Perez	R	22	2B	576	51	127	17	3	8	41	19	6
Kevin Russo	R	28	3B	485	46	109	19	3	2	32	10	4
Dixon Machado	R	21	SS	546	45	102	12	2	2	32	18	6
Argenis Diaz	R	26	SS	431	36	94	13	1	0	26	7	5
Brent Dlugach	R	30	2B	277	25	55	10	1	5	22	4	2
Avisail Garcia	R	22	RF	602	57	143	16	5	12	53	16	10
John Lindsey	R	36	1B	444	42	91	19	1	14	56	0	1
Daniel Fields	L	22	CF	489	41	96	15	3	6	35	14	9
Cale Iorg	R	27	2B	391	31	71	15	1	5	25	8	5

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Miguel Cabrera	662	11.8%	14.4%	.248	.322	.313	.394	.561	.387
Prince Fielder	672	13.8%	15.3%	.215	.299	.284	.397	.499	.368
Austin Jackson	667	10.2%	24.0%	.155	.336	.263	.341	.418	.328
Alex Avila	472	13.1%	24.6%	.159	.314	.248	.349	.407	.329
Torii Hunter	559	7.2%	20.6%	.151	.338	.287	.344	.438	.340
Jhonny Peralta	585	7.7%	17.6%	.137	.293	.258	.315	.395	.307
Omar Infante	561	4.3%	10.5%	.109	.296	.278	.308	.387	.299
Andy Dirks	486	5.6%	16.5%	.142	.310	.276	.319	.418	.319
Victor Martinez	446	7.6%	10.5%	.145	.295	.286	.339	.431	.329
Eugenio Suarez	620	6.3%	23.2%	.128	.284	.228	.289	.356	.280
Delmon Young	605	3.6%	16.7%	.156	.304	.277	.307	.433	.317
Nick Castellanos	632	4.6%	25.3%	.129	.331	.261	.296	.390	.295
Bryan Holaday	323	5.6%	21.4%	.092	.280	.226	.278	.318	.262
Ramon Cabrera	458	7.6%	11.8%	.090	.285	.255	.314	.345	.286
Danny Worth	396	7.6%	24.0%	.098	.297	.230	.292	.328	.274
Tyler Collins	516	6.2%	13.8%	.130	.278	.254	.304	.384	.302
Don Kelly	264	6.4%	15.2%	.107	.278	.248	.302	.355	.291
Ramon Santiago	289	6.6%	14.5%	.094	.280	.247	.310	.341	.279
Brennan Boesch	537	6.0%	21.2%	.152	.302	.256	.305	.408	.308
Brayan Pena	226	4.4%	11.5%	.105	.276	.257	.289	.362	.281
Brad Davis	327	5.5%	24.8%	.106	.282	.220	.267	.326	.261
Quintin Berry	493	8.1%	27.2%	.076	.326	.232	.304	.308	.282
Matt Tuiasosopo	465	9.0%	28.4%	.112	.291	.217	.294	.329	.275
Daniel Dorn	449	7.3%	28.7%	.149	.301	.229	.294	.378	.293
Jeff Kobernus	464	3.4%	20.9%	.064	.315	.252	.279	.316	.263
Hernan Perez	576	3.8%	17.4%	.087	.272	.235	.267	.322	.259
Kevin Russo	485	6.4%	18.6%	.070	.301	.245	.300	.315	.274
Dixon Machado	546	6.6%	16.7%	.044	.248	.206	.262	.250	.231
Argenis Diaz	431	6.0%	19.0%	.038	.297	.237	.284	.275	.248
Brent Dlugach	277	5.1%	33.2%	.105	.309	.214	.258	.319	.253
Avisail Garcia	602	2.7%	25.1%	.108	.315	.248	.276	.356	.272
John Lindsey	444	5.2%	27.7%	.155	.283	.224	.284	.379	.287
Daniel Fields	489	5.9%	27.8%	.087	.288	.212	.265	.299	.248
Cale Iorg	391	3.1%	33.5%	.086	.278	.191	.222	.277	.217

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Miguel Cabrera	662	8.7	157	-6	7.0	Eddie Mathews
Prince Fielder	672	7.5	143	-5	4.3	Alvin Davis
Austin Jackson	667	5.2	106	6	3.5	Matt Kemp
Alex Avila	472	5.1	105	-1	2.7	Chris Iannetta
Torii Hunter	559	5.7	111	3	2.4	Lee Lacy
Jhonny Peralta	585	4.5	92	2	2.4	Brook Jacoby
Omar Infante	561	4.5	88	4	1.9	Mark Grudzielanek
Andy Dirks	486	5.1	99	3	1.5	Greg Briley
Victor Martinez	446	5.5	108	0	1.2	Magglio Ordonez
Eugenio Suarez	620	3.5	75	0	1.1	Ian Desmond
Delmon Young	605	4.9	99	-4	0.9	Luis Montanez
Nick Castellanos	632	4.1	85	-4	0.9	Brook Jacoby
Bryan Holaday	323	3.2	62	4	0.8	Matt Garrick
Ramon Cabrera	458	3.8	80	-5	0.7	Gregg Zaun
Danny Worth	396	3.4	69	3	0.5	Scott Leius
Tyler Collins	516	4.4	86	0	0.5	David Murphy
Don Kelly	264	4.0	78	-1	0.4	Dan Rohn
Ramon Santiago	289	3.8	77	0	0.3	Casey Candaele
Brennan Boesch	537	4.6	92	-5	0.3	Dustan Mohr
Brayan Pena	226	3.8	76	-2	0.3	Rick Cerone
Brad Davis	327	3.1	61	-1	0.3	Frank Charles
Quintin Berry	493	3.8	68	3	0.3	Jeff Stone
Matt Tuiasosopo	465	3.3	70	0	0.2	Ryan Owens
Daniel Dorn	449	3.9	82	0	-0.1	Oreste Marrero
Jeff Kobernus	464	3.4	62	-2	-0.1	Greg Tabor
Hernan Perez	576	3.2	60	0	-0.2	Julio Cordido
Kevin Russo	485	3.4	68	-4	-0.2	Chico Ruiz
Dixon Machado	546	2.4	41	4	-0.3	Neifi Perez
Argenis Diaz	431	2.7	54	0	-0.3	Benny Ruiz
Brent Dlugach	277	2.8	56	-2	-0.4	Paul Hoover
Avisail Garcia	602	3.5	71	1	-0.6	Pedro Munoz
John Lindsey	444	3.7	79	-4	-0.7	Willie Horton
Daniel Fields	489	2.6	53	-3	-1.1	Jason Lee
Cale Iorg	391	2.0	35	-1	-1.3	Jason Dellaero

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Justin Verlander	R	30	32	32	221.3	219	58	19	186	81	76
Max Scherzer	R	28	31	31	186.7	196	58	22	180	88	82
Doug Fister	R	29	27	27	171.0	117	34	16	178	80	75
Anibal Sanchez	R	29	30	30	185.0	143	50	21	194	93	87
Drew Smyly	L	24	30	29	167.3	147	58	19	165	83	78
Rick Porcello	R	24	31	31	179.0	107	45	18	210	101	94
Adam Wilk	L	25	27	27	153.7	70	35	18	179	89	83
Brayan Villarreal	R	26	59	0	66.3	80	37	6	52	28	26
Joaquin Benoit	R	35	63	0	58.0	66	17	8	50	26	24
Octavio Dotel	R	39	51	0	46.7	48	12	4	42	19	18
Jose Valverde	R	35	63	0	60.0	51	26	5	55	28	26
Phil Coke	L	30	68	0	59.3	51	22	5	63	30	28
Al Alburquerque	R	27	30	0	34.7	41	19	3	30	16	15
Darin Downs	L	28	49	0	56.7	44	23	5	60	30	28
Luis Marte	R	26	35	0	50.7	41	27	6	53	30	28
Shawn Hill	R	32	13	12	69.3	29	24	10	85	47	44
Kenny Faulk	L	26	46	0	55.3	46	32	6	59	34	32
Chris Bootcheck	R	34	29	3	42.7	28	27	5	48	29	27
Michael Morrison	R	25	40	0	54.0	46	35	7	56	34	32
Michael Dubee	R	27	45	0	63.7	41	29	8	72	41	38
Bruce Rondon	R	22	51	0	45.0	42	34	6	46	30	28
Duane Below	L	27	29	14	90.3	51	34	14	111	62	58
Ryan Robowski	L	25	36	0	53.7	32	21	7	64	35	33
Trevor Bell	R	26	23	13	74.0	41	32	11	91	52	49
Zack Segovia	R	30	29	6	61.3	29	25	9	76	44	41
Jose Alvarez	L	24	25	24	125.3	56	40	20	159	89	83
Melvin Mercedes	R	22	24	0	35.3	16	20	8	47	31	29
Pat Misch	L	31	24	21	120.3	58	36	23	156	90	84
Luke Putkonen	R	27	31	12	93.0	42	45	15	120	72	67
Jose Ortega	R	24	43	0	59.3	41	53	8	68	47	44
Casey Crosby	L	24	24	24	116.3	74	89	18	134	90	84
Kyle Lobstein	L	23	25	24	118.7	66	71	22	147	94	88

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Justin Verlander	221.3	908	24.1%	6.4%	.275	3.09	3.06	74	73
Max Scherzer	186.7	798	24.6%	7.3%	.306	3.95	3.54	95	85
Doug Fister	171.0	725	16.1%	4.7%	.295	3.95	3.66	95	88
Anibal Sanchez	185.0	799	17.9%	6.3%	.298	4.23	3.85	101	92
Drew Smyly	167.3	725	20.3%	8.0%	.294	4.20	3.93	101	94
Rick Porcello	179.0	792	13.5%	5.7%	.312	4.73	4.04	113	97
Adam Wilk	153.7	675	10.4%	5.2%	.297	4.86	4.49	116	108
Brayan Villarreal	66.3	288	27.8%	12.9%	.282	3.53	3.49	85	84
Joaquin Benoit	58.0	241	27.4%	7.1%	.282	3.72	3.49	89	84
Octavio Dotel	46.7	194	24.7%	6.2%	.294	3.47	2.80	83	67
Jose Valverde	60.0	261	19.5%	10.0%	.284	3.90	3.78	93	91
Phil Coke	59.3	263	19.4%	8.4%	.319	4.25	3.53	102	85
Al Alburquerque	34.7	153	26.8%	12.4%	.306	3.89	3.58	93	86
Darin Downs	56.7	253	17.4%	9.1%	.309	4.45	4.01	107	96
Luis Marte	50.7	232	17.7%	11.6%	.303	4.97	4.67	119	112
Shawn Hill	69.3	317	9.2%	7.6%	.300	5.71	5.35	137	128
Kenny Faulk	55.3	257	17.9%	12.5%	.312	5.20	4.74	125	114
Chris Bootcheck	42.7	203	13.8%	13.3%	.307	5.70	5.34	137	128
Michael Morrison	54.0	253	18.2%	13.8%	.302	5.33	5.13	128	123
Michael Dubee	63.7	292	14.0%	9.9%	.305	5.37	4.90	129	117
Bruce Rondon	45.0	215	19.5%	15.8%	.308	5.60	5.30	134	127
Duane Below	90.3	416	12.3%	8.2%	.310	5.78	5.21	139	125
Ryan Robowski	53.7	246	13.0%	8.5%	.313	5.53	4.94	133	118
Trevor Bell	74.0	345	11.9%	9.3%	.311	5.96	5.34	143	128
Zack Segovia	61.3	285	10.2%	8.8%	.306	6.02	5.38	144	129
Jose Alvarez	125.3	575	9.7%	7.0%	.309	5.96	5.43	143	130
Melvin Mercedes	35.3	173	9.3%	11.6%	.310	7.39	7.09	177	170
Pat Misch	120.3	553	10.5%	6.5%	.310	6.28	5.64	151	135
Luke Putkonen	93.0	444	9.5%	10.1%	.313	6.48	5.90	155	141
Jose Ortega	59.3	299	13.7%	17.7%	.311	6.67	6.25	160	150
Casey Crosby	116.3	572	12.9%	15.6%	.303	6.50	6.31	156	151
Kyle Lobstein	118.7	574	11.5%	12.4%	.308	6.67	6.41	160	154

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Justin Verlander	221.3	8.91	2.36	0.77	135	6.4	Roger Clemens
Max Scherzer	186.7	9.45	2.80	1.06	106	3.5	Andy Benes
Doug Fister	171.0	6.16	1.79	0.84	106	3.2	John Burkett
Anibal Sanchez	185.0	6.96	2.43	1.02	99	2.8	Frank Castillo
Drew Smyly	167.3	7.91	3.12	1.02	100	2.6	Noah Lowry
Rick Porcello	179.0	5.38	2.26	0.91	89	1.6	Joe Johnson
Adam Wilk	153.7	4.10	2.05	1.05	86	1.1	Bobby Livingston
Brayan Villarreal	66.3	10.86	5.02	0.81	119	1.1	Mark Littell
Joaquin Benoit	58.0	10.24	2.64	1.24	112	0.8	Trevor Hoffman
Octavio Dotel	46.7	9.25	2.31	0.77	121	0.8	Larry Andersen
Jose Valverde	60.0	7.65	3.90	0.75	107	0.7	Ryne Duren
Phil Coke	59.3	7.74	3.34	0.76	99	0.4	Randy Choate
Al Alburquerque	34.7	10.63	4.93	0.78	107	0.4	Bryan Harvey
Darin Downs	56.7	6.98	3.65	0.79	94	0.3	Randy Choate
Luis Marte	50.7	7.28	4.79	1.07	84	-0.1	Bob Gibson
Shawn Hill	69.3	3.77	3.12	1.30	73	-0.2	Brian Moehler
Kenny Faulk	55.3	7.49	5.21	0.98	80	-0.3	Brian Snyder
Chris Bootcheck	42.7	5.90	5.69	1.05	73	-0.3	David Lee
Michael Morrison	54.0	7.67	5.83	1.17	78	-0.3	Josh Banks
Michael Dubee	63.7	5.79	4.10	1.13	78	-0.4	Rick Greene
Bruce Rondon	45.0	8.40	6.80	1.20	75	-0.4	Josh Banks
Duane Below	90.3	5.08	3.39	1.40	72	-0.4	Jason Mackintosh
Ryan Robowski	53.7	5.36	3.52	1.17	76	-0.5	Tim Hamulack
Trevor Bell	74.0	4.99	3.89	1.34	70	-0.5	David Lundquist
Zack Segovia	61.3	4.26	3.67	1.32	70	-0.6	Bob Scanlan
Jose Alvarez	125.3	4.02	2.87	1.44	70	-0.8	Austin Shappi
Melvin Mercedes	35.3	4.08	5.10	2.04	57	-1.1	Mark Pedersen
Pat Misch	120.3	4.34	2.69	1.72	67	-1.2	Andrew Lorraine
Luke Putkonen	93.0	4.06	4.35	1.45	65	-1.3	Mark Woodyard
Jose Ortega	59.3	6.22	8.04	1.21	63	-1.3	Edwardo Sierra
Casey Crosby	116.3	5.73	6.89	1.39	64	-1.5	Steve Whitaker
Kyle Lobstein	118.7	5.00	5.38	1.67	63	-1.7	Mike Hinckley

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.