2013 ZiPS Projections – Detroit Tigers

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Detroit Tigers. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Giants / Mets / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Reds / Rockies / Royals / White Sox.

Batters
On the one hand, we know that the league-average BABIP generally settles within the .290-.300 range. On the other, we also know that Tigers center fielder Austin Jackson has posted a .370 BABIP over his first three seasons (ca. 2000 plate appearances). On the third hand — this being one of those rare instances in which a third hand is present — we know that true-talent BABIP tends not to exceed about .350.

How does ZiPS handle a situation like this? Szymborski addressed a question along these very same lines on Wednesday, writing: “Short version: even at 1960 PA, you expect a player’s BABIP to regress ~43% toward mean.”

Otherwise, here’s a point of interest: Andy Dirks is likely as productive a major-league corner outfielder as Torii Hunter, whom Detroit signed to a two-year, $26 million contract this offseason — and is likely a full win better than the departed Delmon Young.

Pitchers
There’s a ceiling of sorts — because of how his arm could just fall off or whatever — there’s a ceiling in terms of what we can reasonably project a starting pitcher to produce in any given season. Whatever that ceiling is for present major leaguers, however, that’s more or less where Justin Verlander is. By comparison, Max Scherzer — an obviously transcendent and ecstatic and handsome and ethnically German talent — isn’t even expected by ZiPS to produce four wins.

Will the Tigers name Bruce Rondon to the closer’s role in 2013? It’s possible. What’s less possible is that he’s the Detroit reliever best suited to high-leverage innings. Joaquin Benoit, Brayan Villarreal, Octavio Dotel, Al Alburquerque, and even Drew Smyly: any of them would be an improvement over Rondon, according to Dan Szymborski’s computer math.

Bench/Prospects
Prospect analyst Marc Hulet recently ranked Nick Castellanos first among all Tigers prospects. His (Castellanos’s, not Hulet’s) profile suggests that — not entirely unlike Austin Jackson — he could sustain a high batting average on balls in play. Looking for an under-the-radar sort? ZiPS’ estimation of infield prospect Eugenio Suarez’s abilities might be more optimistic than those found in scouting reports. Among pitchers, it would seem almost a moral necessity to find a role for left-hander Drew Smyly: after posting a 96 xFIP- in 99.1 innings last year, he’s projected to pitch along those same lines in 2013.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Tigers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

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Batters, Rates and Averages

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Batters, Assorted Other

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Pitchers, Counting Stats

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Pitchers, Rates and Averages

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Pitchers, Assorted Other

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.