2013 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Dodgers

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Giants / Mariners / Mets / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / White Sox.

Batters
The Dodgers begin 2013 with slightly more than double the payroll of their 2012 opening-day roster. That fact established, it will not surprise the reader to learn that the Dodgers have spent some of that additional money on position players. The club’s highest-paid field player at the start of 2012 was outfielder Andre Ethier, at $10.95 million. As of today, the Dodgers have five batters earning more than that: Adrian Gonzalez ($21.9 million), Carl Crawford ($20.9 million), Matt Kemp ($20.3 million), Hanley Ramirez ($15.5 million), and Ethier himself ($13.5 million).*

One would hope — for the sake of order in the universe, if nothing else — that the Dodgers’ financial outlay would correlate to success. In fact, it appears as though it will. The Dodgers produced 20.3 WAR via batting and fielding last season; the squad presented here is probably closer to 25 WAR. To the front office’s credit, there are some values here, as well: Luis Cruz, A.J. Ellis, and Tim Federowicz — all expected to produce like average major leaguers — will combine to make just $3 million in 2013.

Figures stolen directly from Cot’s Contracts.

Pitchers
One good strategy when building a rotation is to have some of the best pitchers on it. Coincidentally, Clayton Kershaw and the recently signed Zack Greinke fit that precise description. Consider, by way of example, this table, which features the best pitchers by total WAR over the past three seasons, including Greinke and Kershaw:

Furthermore, there’s this second table. What’s on it? The best one-two pitching tandems of the 21 teams projected by WAR so far, is what. There’s a tie for fifth place, is why there are six total teams. Is it possible that the author has overlooked a better, and already projected, pitching tandem? Yes! But probably not. But also, maybe yes.

In any case, Greinke and Kershaw are the best starting pair projected so far. Regard:

Shall we discuss the Dodger bullpen? If we do, it will be difficult to avoid the question of who is their closer and who their closer ought to be. Because “Brandon League” is the former and “Kenley Jansen” is almost certainly the latter. Even last season, which was cut short for him by a kind of frightening heart problem, Jansen pitched 65.0 innings while posting a 67 xFIP- and 1.7 WAR. It may be a non-issue: perhaps as a setup man, Jansen pitches more innings of a similar leverage. As an employee of FanGraphs, though, the author is contractually obligated to make note of sub-optimal bullpen usage.

Bench/Prospects
Joc Pederson is not, it turns out, a decorated Swedish Olympian from the 1920s, but rather an outfielder in the Dodgers system — one, it also turns out, who profiles as something like an average major-leaguer even as he enters just his age-21 season. Among pitchers, neither Chris Capuano nor Ted Lilly are prospects. What they are, however, is reasonably effective starting pitchers without a spot in the rotation. “What will become of them?” the reader will likely keep himself awake asking tonight.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Dodgers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

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Batters, Rates and Averages

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Batters, Assorted Other

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Pitchers, Counting Stats

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Pitchers, Rates and Averages

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Pitchers, Assorted Other

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.