2013 ZiPS Projections – Miami Marlins

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Giants / Mariners / Mets / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / White Sox.

Batters
It will come as no surprise to the reader to learn that the 2013 Marlins are likely to be a poor team. That’s not to suggest, of course, that the Miami players themselves will be anything less than committed to flawless victory, but rather that the front office — by way of their deadline and offseason trades — have conspired to make the chances of said flawless victory much less likely.

In the interest of brevity — and because the author is running out of port as he writes this — let’s summarize the projections for Miami’s field players via bullet-point technology:

Regard:
• Giancarlo Stanton‘s forecast — which is on par with Ryan Braun‘s (link) and Buster Posey’s (other link) — suggests that, if healthy, he could contend for MVP candidacy in the National League.
• ZiPS concurs with Justin Ruggiano’s pronouncement via Twitter from November — regarding the Marlins center-field spot — that Ruggiano’s “got this.” His two-win projection is the second-highest among Miami field players.
• Here’s the departed Jose Reyes‘s WAR projection relative to his replacement Adeiny Hechavarria’s: 4.3 vs. 1.3.

Pitchers
Now, a similar exercise for pitchers.

Regard:
• Here are the ZiPS WAR projections for 2013 for the (mostly departed) members of the Marlins’ 2012 opening-day rotation: Josh Johnson (3.4 WAR), Mark Buehrle (2.5), Ricky Nolasco (1.6), Carlos Zambrano (0.8), and Anibal Sanchez (2.8).
• Now here are the WAR projections for the Marlins likely 2013 rotation: Nolasco (1.6 WAR), Henderson Alvarez (1.0), Wade LeBlanc (0.9), Nathan Eovaldi (0.7), Jacob Turner (0.2).
• Here’s the total for the 2012 starters: 11.1 WAR. And for the 2013 starters: 4.4 WAR. Would it be fair to say that the present Marlins’ rotation will be worth about six or seven wins fewer than the combined total of the (mostly departed) 2012 starters? Yes, it probably would.

Bench/Prospects
Given the nature of their recent transactions, a thing the Marlins do have is young talent. Both Jake Marisnick (an outfield prospect acquired from Toronto) and Derek Dietrich (a shortstop from Tampa Bay, acquired in the deal that sent Yunel Escobar there) profile as a win better than replacement-level already. They join Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, already present in the organization. The best of Miami’s pitching prospects — Jose Fernandez, Andrew Heaney, and Justin Nicolino (acquired from Toronto) — appear to have too few innings in the high minors for a reliable ZiPS projections.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Marlins, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Giancarlo Stanton	R	23	RF	569	88	143	31	3	41	98	6	4
Justin Ruggiano	R	31	CF	447	51	106	25	1	13	51	15	6
Rob Brantly	L	23	C	551	51	135	28	1	9	47	1	3
Christian Yelich	L	21	CF	540	64	126	27	4	13	61	21	7
Logan Morrison	L	25	1B	488	56	111	25	5	15	60	2	2
Adeiny Hechavarria	R	24	SS	624	62	148	25	6	7	52	10	6
Jacob Realmuto	R	22	C	502	50	115	17	1	9	44	12	7
Jake Marisnick	R	22	CF	604	54	136	26	7	10	57	23	10
Derek Dietrich	L	23	SS	615	64	140	30	6	15	68	4	6
Placido Polanco	R	37	3B	381	32	93	13	0	3	26	1	0
Donovan Solano	R	25	2B	475	46	114	21	3	3	36	6	0
Kevin Kouzmanoff	R	31	3B	486	46	115	28	1	11	58	2	1
Marcell Ozuna	R	22	RF	589	72	131	26	4	19	69	10	3
Gorkys Hernandez	R	25	CF	515	60	108	17	7	4	40	18	8
Carlos Lee	R	37	1B	574	54	139	28	2	11	78	3	1
Zack Cox	L	24	3B	533	50	127	28	1	9	48	1	1
Juan Pierre	L	35	LF	542	67	139	13	5	1	34	35	12
Kyle Skipworth	L	23	C	492	54	96	16	2	15	54	1	3
Jeff Mathis	R	30	C	255	25	51	12	1	5	27	2	1
Cole Armstrong	L	29	C	212	19	44	10	0	4	19	0	1
Craig Tatum	R	30	C	127	11	26	4	0	1	10	1	1
Bryan Petersen	L	27	RF	532	61	120	20	5	6	39	11	7
Tug Hulett	L	30	3B	389	39	83	18	2	5	34	5	3
Matt Downs	R	29	1B	315	37	71	14	1	9	36	3	4
Clint Sammons	R	30	C	181	18	33	5	0	5	17	1	1
Chris Coghlan	L	28	RF	477	60	108	23	3	7	40	9	5
Austin Kearns	R	33	LF	232	25	46	8	1	4	17	2	2
Audy Ciriaco	R	26	3B	432	42	97	16	3	9	40	10	5
Nick Green	R	34	2B	346	34	74	18	1	7	36	2	3
Chris Valaika	R	27	2B	455	41	103	20	2	6	38	2	2
Jordan Brown	L	29	1B	468	44	115	25	2	6	43	2	3
Shawn Bowman	R	28	3B	424	40	88	18	1	9	36	1	1
Kyle Jensen	R	25	RF	537	55	110	20	2	17	61	2	1
Joe Mahoney	L	26	1B	509	47	119	27	3	9	53	5	2
Chris Aguila	R	34	LF	361	33	73	16	1	8	30	3	1
Greg Dobbs	L	34	3B	320	26	76	13	1	6	34	2	1
Mike Cervenak	R	36	1B	425	45	102	18	0	8	40	2	2
Chase Lambin	B	33	2B	414	35	85	14	4	6	34	2	4
Alfredo Silverio	R	26	RF	465	58	108	25	8	9	47	7	8

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Giancarlo Stanton	569	10.4%	25.5%	.320	.322	.286	.367	.606	.401
Justin Ruggiano	447	7.6%	26.0%	.162	.331	.260	.318	.422	.322
Rob Brantly	551	5.1%	14.0%	.111	.292	.263	.305	.374	.293
Christian Yelich	540	8.1%	25.4%	.150	.328	.255	.317	.405	.316
Logan Morrison	488	10.9%	17.6%	.187	.291	.259	.344	.446	.339
Adeiny Hechavarria	624	4.6%	18.9%	.100	.305	.254	.289	.354	.278
Jacob Realmuto	502	5.6%	20.1%	.099	.297	.248	.296	.347	.281
Jake Marisnick	604	5.3%	20.7%	.127	.299	.246	.301	.373	.295
Derek Dietrich	615	4.4%	21.8%	.154	.295	.246	.294	.400	.297
Placido Polanco	381	6.3%	7.9%	.064	.282	.266	.315	.330	.284
Donovan Solano	475	5.1%	16.4%	.082	.307	.260	.300	.342	.281
Kevin Kouzmanoff	486	3.5%	17.7%	.137	.285	.252	.285	.389	.290
Marcell Ozuna	589	6.5%	27.0%	.167	.304	.240	.291	.407	.304
Gorkys Hernandez	515	7.6%	25.6%	.093	.317	.234	.301	.327	.278
Carlos Lee	574	8.4%	8.9%	.125	.277	.268	.329	.393	.312
Zack Cox	533	5.1%	22.9%	.114	.319	.255	.298	.369	.290
Juan Pierre	542	5.2%	5.9%	.053	.301	.284	.332	.337	.295
Kyle Skipworth	492	5.9%	35.2%	.142	.299	.211	.262	.353	.264
Jeff Mathis	255	4.7%	27.1%	.125	.288	.220	.259	.345	.253
Cole Armstrong	212	8.0%	23.6%	.115	.288	.229	.294	.344	.277
Craig Tatum	127	7.1%	20.5%	.060	.278	.224	.278	.284	.249
Bryan Petersen	532	8.3%	19.7%	.101	.310	.253	.320	.354	.292
Tug Hulett	389	8.5%	20.8%	.106	.292	.237	.302	.343	.283
Matt Downs	315	6.0%	18.7%	.150	.281	.247	.306	.397	.302
Clint Sammons	181	5.5%	26.0%	.120	.241	.199	.250	.319	.249
Chris Coghlan	477	8.6%	15.1%	.117	.288	.254	.322	.371	.302
Austin Kearns	232	11.2%	25.0%	.111	.307	.231	.338	.342	.303
Audy Ciriaco	432	2.8%	21.8%	.118	.280	.233	.258	.351	.264
Nick Green	346	4.6%	21.4%	.130	.280	.233	.281	.363	.274
Chris Valaika	455	4.0%	19.6%	.099	.290	.242	.277	.341	.268
Jordan Brown	468	4.3%	13.9%	.107	.292	.261	.294	.368	.285
Shawn Bowman	424	4.7%	31.6%	.118	.306	.220	.262	.338	.260
Kyle Jensen	537	7.8%	34.3%	.154	.321	.226	.291	.380	.293
Joe Mahoney	509	5.3%	21.8%	.127	.309	.253	.299	.380	.293
Chris Aguila	361	6.6%	28.5%	.126	.293	.221	.278	.347	.274
Greg Dobbs	320	4.7%	17.5%	.111	.290	.254	.288	.365	.278
Mike Cervenak	425	5.2%	14.4%	.106	.285	.258	.301	.364	.288
Chase Lambin	414	6.0%	24.2%	.107	.287	.225	.280	.332	.264
Alfredo Silverio	465	3.4%	22.2%	.153	.296	.244	.270	.397	.279

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Giancarlo Stanton	569	8.4	159	7	6.4	Mark McGwire
Justin Ruggiano	447	5.0	99	3	2.0	Leroy Stanton
Rob Brantly	551	4.1	83	1	1.8	Matt Walbeck
Christian Yelich	540	4.8	95	-3	1.6	Mel Hall
Logan Morrison	488	5.6	113	-3	1.4	Benny Distefano
Adeiny Hechavarria	624	3.7	74	3	1.3	Ronny Cedeno
Jacob Realmuto	502	3.6	74	2	1.3	Koyie Hill
Jake Marisnick	604	4.1	82	1	1.2	Adam Jones
Derek Dietrich	615	4.1	86	-6	1.1	Ivanon Coffie
Placido Polanco	381	3.9	76	5	1.0	Mark Loretta
Donovan Solano	475	3.9	74	3	0.9	Juan Melo
Kevin Kouzmanoff	486	4.0	81	1	0.9	Aurelio Rodriguez
Marcell Ozuna	589	4.3	87	2	0.8	Dave Henderson
Gorkys Hernandez	515	3.5	71	5	0.7	Herm Winningham
Carlos Lee	574	4.8	95	-2	0.7	Buddy Bell
Zack Cox	533	4.0	80	-2	0.7	Jeff Moronko
Juan Pierre	542	4.5	83	0	0.4	Tony Womack
Kyle Skipworth	492	3.1	65	-4	0.1	Todd Pratt
Jeff Mathis	255	3.1	62	-1	0.1	Chris Curry
Cole Armstrong	212	3.4	73	-3	0.1	Bill Dobrolsky
Craig Tatum	127	2.7	53	1	0.1	Chris Tremie
Bryan Petersen	532	4.0	83	0	0.1	Mike Kingery
Tug Hulett	389	3.6	75	-4	0.0	Rodney Nye
Matt Downs	315	4.2	89	-1	0.0	Guillermo Garcia
Clint Sammons	181	2.6	53	0	0.0	Charlie Greene
Chris Coghlan	477	4.3	88	-5	-0.1	Russ Adams
Austin Kearns	232	4.0	86	-2	-0.1	Junior Spivey
Audy Ciriaco	432	3.2	63	-1	-0.3	Santiago Henry
Nick Green	346	3.5	73	-5	-0.3	Aurelio Rodriguez
Chris Valaika	455	3.3	67	-3	-0.3	Edgar Varela
Jordan Brown	468	3.9	79	0	-0.4	Quinn Mack
Shawn Bowman	424	3.0	61	-2	-0.4	Juan Richardson
Kyle Jensen	537	3.9	80	-5	-0.4	Brent Clevlen
Joe Mahoney	509	4.1	83	-4	-0.4	Andy Lawrence
Chris Aguila	361	3.4	69	-1	-0.5	Felipe Zayas
Greg Dobbs	320	3.8	76	-8	-0.5	Wes Helms
Mike Cervenak	425	3.9	80	-4	-0.6	Ray Knight
Chase Lambin	414	3.1	66	-7	-0.8	Casey Candaele
Alfredo Silverio	465	3.6	78	-5	-1.0	William Strait

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Ricky Nolasco	R	30	27	27	169.7	122	38	19	187	88	82
Henderson Alvarez	R	23	28	28	167.0	85	46	20	188	92	86
Wade LeBlanc	L	28	32	25	152.3	110	46	18	167	83	78
Steve Cishek	R	27	65	0	69.0	69	29	5	62	28	26
Carlos Zambrano	R	32	28	19	117.0	87	60	12	117	63	59
Adam Conley	L	23	26	26	121.0	101	63	12	119	66	62
Nathan Eovaldi	R	23	29	27	136.3	99	63	15	142	76	71
Ryan Webb	R	27	66	0	66.7	46	23	4	69	31	29
Kevin Slowey	R	29	18	16	88.7	59	20	12	99	50	47
Grant Dayton	L	25	38	3	59.7	55	31	5	57	30	28
A.J. Ramos	R	26	67	0	69.7	68	34	7	65	34	32
Jose Ceda	R	26	37	0	41.0	42	21	4	37	19	18
Jacob Turner	R	22	25	25	137.0	88	62	16	148	81	76
Chad Gaudin	R	30	38	3	63.3	50	23	7	66	33	31
Mike Dunn	L	28	68	0	60.7	64	35	5	56	30	28
Jonathan Albaladejo	R	30	55	0	57.3	56	27	7	53	29	27
Michael Brady	R	26	46	0	49.0	43	13	6	49	25	23
Sam Dyson	R	25	42	6	73.3	32	27	5	84	41	38
Scott Maine	L	28	54	0	60.0	56	31	6	58	31	29
Jon Link	R	29	43	0	51.3	40	25	5	52	27	25
Chris Hatcher	R	28	50	0	56.3	47	27	6	57	30	28
Zach Phillips	L	26	51	0	62.3	45	35	4	64	33	31
Chad Qualls	R	34	62	0	55.7	37	16	6	61	30	28
Arquimedes Caminero	R	26	28	0	35.0	31	24	3	34	19	18
Tom Koehler	R	27	30	26	141.0	102	73	19	153	88	82
Evan Reed	R	27	39	0	48.3	36	27	5	50	28	26
Dan Jennings	L	26	54	0	60.0	41	31	5	66	34	32
Alex Sanabia	R	24	17	16	78.7	44	25	13	92	51	48
John Maine	R	32	12	12	56.3	38	36	8	62	39	36
Jordan Smith	R	27	53	0	58.3	29	22	6	68	35	33
Doug Mathis	R	30	20	16	88.3	44	46	12	108	62	58
Gary Glover	R	36	39	0	58.3	42	33	9	64	40	37
Brad Hand	L	23	28	28	138.7	101	98	21	147	94	88
Braulio Lara	L	24	24	22	104.3	61	77	16	122	81	76
Edgar Olmos	L	23	30	19	101.0	70	94	15	115	80	75

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Ricky Nolasco	169.7	734	16.6%	5.2%	.305	4.35	3.77	111	96
Henderson Alvarez	167.0	735	11.6%	6.3%	.290	4.63	4.53	118	116
Wade LeBlanc	152.3	670	16.4%	6.9%	.304	4.61	4.15	118	106
Steve Cishek	69.0	298	23.2%	9.7%	.300	3.39	3.21	86	82
Carlos Zambrano	117.0	528	16.5%	11.4%	.290	4.54	4.63	116	118
Adam Conley	121.0	545	18.5%	11.6%	.297	4.61	4.50	118	115
Nathan Eovaldi	136.3	614	16.1%	10.3%	.295	4.69	4.57	120	117
Ryan Webb	66.7	292	15.7%	7.9%	.301	3.92	3.35	100	85
Kevin Slowey	88.7	385	15.3%	5.2%	.300	4.77	4.34	122	111
Grant Dayton	59.7	267	20.6%	11.6%	.302	4.22	4.05	108	103
A.J. Ramos	69.7	308	22.1%	11.0%	.299	4.13	4.13	105	105
Jose Ceda	41.0	181	23.2%	11.6%	.295	3.95	3.92	101	100
Jacob Turner	137.0	621	14.2%	10.0%	.295	4.99	4.80	127	122
Chad Gaudin	63.3	279	17.9%	8.2%	.303	4.41	4.14	113	106
Mike Dunn	60.7	273	23.4%	12.8%	.305	4.15	3.64	106	93
Jonathan Albaladejo	57.3	252	22.2%	10.7%	.291	4.24	4.25	108	108
Michael Brady	49.0	209	20.6%	6.2%	.299	4.22	3.79	108	97
Sam Dyson	73.3	331	9.7%	8.2%	.300	4.66	4.38	119	112
Scott Maine	60.0	269	20.8%	11.5%	.304	4.35	4.28	111	109
Jon Link	51.3	231	17.3%	10.8%	.298	4.38	4.32	112	110
Chris Hatcher	56.3	253	18.6%	10.7%	.302	4.47	4.41	114	112
Zach Phillips	62.3	286	15.7%	12.2%	.303	4.48	4.22	114	108
Chad Qualls	55.7	244	15.2%	6.6%	.297	4.53	3.92	116	100
Arquimedes Caminero	35.0	163	19.0%	14.7%	.301	4.63	4.58	118	117
Tom Koehler	141.0	649	15.7%	11.2%	.300	5.23	5.08	133	130
Evan Reed	48.3	222	16.2%	12.2%	.298	4.84	4.69	123	120
Dan Jennings	60.0	277	14.8%	11.2%	.311	4.80	4.51	122	115
Alex Sanabia	78.7	353	12.5%	7.1%	.296	5.49	5.19	140	132
John Maine	56.3	267	14.2%	13.5%	.299	5.75	5.67	147	145
Jordan Smith	58.3	265	10.9%	8.3%	.303	5.09	4.57	130	117
Doug Mathis	88.3	419	10.5%	11.0%	.308	5.91	5.60	151	143
Gary Glover	58.3	272	15.4%	12.1%	.299	5.71	5.31	146	135
Brad Hand	138.7	661	15.3%	14.8%	.291	5.71	5.83	146	149
Braulio Lara	104.3	512	11.9%	15.0%	.303	6.56	6.34	167	162
Edgar Olmos	101.0	512	13.7%	18.4%	.308	6.68	6.64	170	169

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Ricky Nolasco	169.7	6.47	2.02	1.01	90	1.6	Esteban Loaiza
Henderson Alvarez	167.0	4.58	2.48	1.08	85	1.0	Carlos Silva
Wade LeBlanc	152.3	6.50	2.72	1.06	85	0.9	Andrew Lorraine
Steve Cishek	69.0	9.00	3.78	0.65	116	0.9	Manny Delcarmen
Carlos Zambrano	117.0	6.69	4.62	0.92	87	0.8	Jamey Wright
Adam Conley	121.0	7.51	4.69	0.89	85	0.8	Juan Ovalles
Nathan Eovaldi	136.3	6.54	4.16	0.99	84	0.7	Zach Miner
Ryan Webb	66.7	6.21	3.10	0.54	100	0.4	Rafael Montalvo
Kevin Slowey	88.7	5.99	2.03	1.22	82	0.4	Mark Johnson
Grant Dayton	59.7	8.29	4.67	0.75	93	0.3	Scott Wiggins
A.J. Ramos	69.7	8.78	4.39	0.90	95	0.2	Kevin Barry
Jose Ceda	41.0	9.22	4.61	0.88	99	0.2	Brian Bruney
Jacob Turner	137.0	5.78	4.07	1.05	79	0.2	Balvino Galvez
Chad Gaudin	63.3	7.11	3.27	1.00	89	0.2	Steve Crawford
Mike Dunn	60.7	9.49	5.19	0.74	95	0.2	Ricky Pickett
Jonathan Albaladejo	57.3	8.80	4.24	1.10	93	0.1	Chad Harville
Michael Brady	49.0	7.90	2.39	1.10	93	0.1	Kevin Crafton
Sam Dyson	73.3	3.93	3.32	0.61	84	0.1	Jack Cassel
Scott Maine	60.0	8.40	4.65	0.90	90	0.0	Kevin Tolar
Jon Link	51.3	7.02	4.39	0.88	90	0.0	Miguel Saladin
Chris Hatcher	56.3	7.51	4.32	0.96	88	0.0	Miguel Saladin
Zach Phillips	62.3	6.50	5.06	0.58	88	0.0	Pete Cappadona
Chad Qualls	55.7	5.98	2.59	0.97	87	-0.1	Jose Bautista
Arquimedes Caminero	35.0	7.97	6.17	0.77	85	-0.1	Jeff Smith
Tom Koehler	141.0	6.51	4.66	1.21	75	-0.2	Ryan Glynn
Evan Reed	48.3	6.71	5.03	0.93	81	-0.3	Ryan Baker
Dan Jennings	60.0	6.15	4.65	0.75	82	-0.3	Anthony Ferrari
Alex Sanabia	78.7	5.03	2.86	1.49	72	-0.4	Doug Gogolewski
John Maine	56.3	6.07	5.75	1.28	68	-0.4	Kevin Foster
Jordan Smith	58.3	4.48	3.40	0.93	77	-0.5	Andy Nezelek
Doug Mathis	88.3	4.48	4.69	1.22	66	-0.9	Giovanni Carrara
Gary Glover	58.3	6.48	5.09	1.39	69	-0.9	Johnny Klippstein
Brad Hand	138.7	6.55	6.36	1.36	69	-1.0	Tom Singer
Braulio Lara	104.3	5.26	6.64	1.38	60	-1.8	Ryan Jacobs
Edgar Olmos	101.0	6.24	8.38	1.34	59	-2.0	Troy Carrasco

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.