2013 ZiPS Projections – Miami Marlins

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Giants / Mariners / Mets / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / White Sox.

Batters
It will come as no surprise to the reader to learn that the 2013 Marlins are likely to be a poor team. That’s not to suggest, of course, that the Miami players themselves will be anything less than committed to flawless victory, but rather that the front office — by way of their deadline and offseason trades — have conspired to make the chances of said flawless victory much less likely.

In the interest of brevity — and because the author is running out of port as he writes this — let’s summarize the projections for Miami’s field players via bullet-point technology:

Regard:
• Giancarlo Stanton‘s forecast — which is on par with Ryan Braun‘s (link) and Buster Posey’s (other link) — suggests that, if healthy, he could contend for MVP candidacy in the National League.
• ZiPS concurs with Justin Ruggiano’s pronouncement via Twitter from November — regarding the Marlins center-field spot — that Ruggiano’s “got this.” His two-win projection is the second-highest among Miami field players.
• Here’s the departed Jose Reyes‘s WAR projection relative to his replacement Adeiny Hechavarria’s: 4.3 vs. 1.3.

Pitchers
Now, a similar exercise for pitchers.

Regard:
• Here are the ZiPS WAR projections for 2013 for the (mostly departed) members of the Marlins’ 2012 opening-day rotation: Josh Johnson (3.4 WAR), Mark Buehrle (2.5), Ricky Nolasco (1.6), Carlos Zambrano (0.8), and Anibal Sanchez (2.8).
• Now here are the WAR projections for the Marlins likely 2013 rotation: Nolasco (1.6 WAR), Henderson Alvarez (1.0), Wade LeBlanc (0.9), Nathan Eovaldi (0.7), Jacob Turner (0.2).
• Here’s the total for the 2012 starters: 11.1 WAR. And for the 2013 starters: 4.4 WAR. Would it be fair to say that the present Marlins’ rotation will be worth about six or seven wins fewer than the combined total of the (mostly departed) 2012 starters? Yes, it probably would.

Bench/Prospects
Given the nature of their recent transactions, a thing the Marlins do have is young talent. Both Jake Marisnick (an outfield prospect acquired from Toronto) and Derek Dietrich (a shortstop from Tampa Bay, acquired in the deal that sent Yunel Escobar there) profile as a win better than replacement-level already. They join Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, already present in the organization. The best of Miami’s pitching prospects — Jose Fernandez, Andrew Heaney, and Justin Nicolino (acquired from Toronto) — appear to have too few innings in the high minors for a reliable ZiPS projections.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Marlins, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

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Batters, Rates and Averages

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Batters, Assorted Other

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Pitchers, Counting Stats

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Pitchers, Rates and Averages

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Pitchers, Assorted Other

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.