2013 ZiPS Projections – Milwaukee Brewers

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Rangers / Royals.

Batters
Milwaukee’s is not a stars-and-scrubs offense, per se. It is, however, a stars-and-something offense — owing largely to the presence, first, of left-fielder Ryan Braun and then, second, everyone else on the team, none of whom are as good as left-fielder Ryan Braun. A year after winning the NL MVP award (in 2011), Braun posted the second-highest WAR in the National League last season. Unsurprisingly, he’s projected to be quite good in 2013, as well.

Elsewhere, the team is almost uniformly average. ZiPS is skeptical about Aramis Ramirez‘s capacity to approximate what was actually a career year in 2012. On the other hand, young shortstop Jean Segura’s failure to play any better than replacement level after arriving in Milwaukee (by way of the Zack Greinke trade) doesn’t appear to entirely mar his projection for 2013.

Pitchers
In the event that the reader finds himself with a dearth of question marks, he (or she, certainly) might consider borrowing some from the Brewers’ rotation. What we find therein is one legitimate and established starter (in Yovani Gallardo) and then an array of decent pitchers for whom durability might be a concern. For one reason or another, none of the team’s provisional No. 2-5 starters (Marco Estrada, Mike Fiers, Chris Narveson, and Mark Rogers) is projected to throw more than 134 innings.

The effects of regression alone will likely ensure that the Brewers’ bullpen doesn’t reach the depths of 2012, which saw the club’s relief corps post one of the league’s worst seasons by Win Probability Added. That said, ZiPS isn’t entirely optimistic about any one member of the projected 2013 bullpen — with the exception, at least, of closer John Axford.

Bench/Prospects
Despite having received low-ish marks in recent years for the overally quality of their farm system, the Brewers have managed to produce a number of high-floored prospects who would help mitigate the effects of injury, for example, at the major-league level. Scooter Gennett, Taylor Green, and Logan Schafer — none of them elite, really — are all projected to post a major-league equivalent WAR of at least 1.0. Moreover, relief acquisitions like Miguel De Los Santos (via waivers, from Texas) and Michael Olmsted (via free agency) have added low-cost depth to the bullpen.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Brewers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Ryan Braun	R	29	LF	679	98	183	37	4	33	112	24	6
Aramis Ramirez	R	35	3B	542	69	138	32	2	23	93	4	1
Rickie Weeks	R	30	2B	587	77	129	26	3	22	63	11	3
Jonathan Lucroy	R	27	C	460	47	115	20	3	12	63	5	1
Jean Segura	R	23	SS	535	61	137	20	7	9	57	26	9
Corey Hart	R	31	1B	589	78	141	30	3	27	80	6	3
Carlos Gomez	R	27	CF	410	57	93	16	4	13	43	28	5
Norichika Aoki	L	31	RF	634	77	166	31	5	7	55	16	6
Martin Maldonado	R	26	C	416	36	88	16	0	10	46	1	3
Taylor Green	L	26	3B	501	44	114	28	1	12	63	1	2
Nyjer Morgan	L	32	CF	432	52	101	12	5	3	26	18	8
Sea Bass Gonzalez	R	36	SS	352	37	82	19	1	11	49	1	1
Scooter Gennett	L	23	2B	639	62	167	28	5	9	50	10	7
Logan Schafer	L	26	CF	456	49	109	20	7	6	39	11	6
Mat Gamel	L	27	1B	328	35	76	17	1	11	46	3	0
Jeff Bianchi	R	26	SS	489	48	112	21	2	6	46	13	5
Caleb Gindl	L	24	RF	572	56	132	28	5	13	58	6	4
Donnie Murphy	R	30	2B	221	31	46	12	3	8	37	1	0
Hunter Morris	L	24	1B	557	60	133	31	6	20	77	4	2
Khris Davis	R	25	LF	473	50	100	22	1	15	58	6	5
Cole Garner	R	28	RF	329	34	71	15	4	9	36	4	2
Hainley Statia	B	27	3B	357	31	79	14	2	1	29	4	2
Sean Halton	R	26	1B	513	44	114	25	2	11	63	2	2
Kentrail Davis	L	25	RF	547	56	117	22	7	6	47	16	8
Hector Gomez	R	25	2B	275	21	54	12	3	5	27	5	3
Corey Patterson	L	33	LF	390	39	86	18	3	7	37	14	6
Josh Prince	R	25	CF	473	50	97	18	2	5	31	25	12
Jay Gibbons	L	36	RF	303	26	68	14	1	8	39	1	0
Erick Almonte	R	35	1B	217	18	48	9	1	3	19	1	1
Blake Lalli	L	30	1B	425	43	98	18	0	7	46	0	2
Rene Tosoni	L	26	LF	404	39	81	18	2	8	40	4	4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Ryan Braun	679	8.8%	16.5%	.238	.323	.302	.371	.540	.387
Aramis Ramirez	542	6.6%	13.5%	.214	.287	.280	.338	.494	.354
Rickie Weeks	587	10.2%	23.5%	.191	.302	.252	.344	.443	.344
Jonathan Lucroy	460	7.0%	16.1%	.147	.306	.274	.328	.421	.325
Jean Segura	535	5.6%	14.8%	.124	.314	.278	.325	.402	.313
Corey Hart	589	7.5%	22.8%	.220	.305	.265	.329	.485	.346
Carlos Gomez	410	5.4%	22.4%	.169	.296	.249	.300	.418	.314
Norichika Aoki	634	6.2%	9.1%	.107	.308	.288	.342	.395	.323
Martin Maldonado	416	6.3%	25.0%	.123	.298	.236	.298	.359	.284
Taylor Green	501	7.6%	19.4%	.145	.292	.251	.312	.396	.304
Nyjer Morgan	432	5.8%	16.9%	.081	.315	.262	.321	.343	.289
Sea Bass Gonzalez	352	4.0%	19.6%	.164	.282	.248	.284	.412	.296
Scooter Gennett	639	3.8%	13.9%	.108	.311	.277	.306	.385	.296
Logan Schafer	456	5.7%	15.6%	.124	.300	.261	.312	.385	.302
Mat Gamel	328	8.8%	25.6%	.179	.325	.261	.332	.440	.329
Jeff Bianchi	489	5.5%	22.1%	.095	.311	.248	.290	.343	.275
Caleb Gindl	572	7.9%	21.2%	.149	.307	.254	.315	.403	.310
Donnie Murphy	221	6.8%	25.3%	.211	.277	.231	.295	.442	.314
Hunter Morris	557	4.3%	23.7%	.196	.300	.253	.289	.449	.315
Khris Davis	473	9.9%	27.5%	.167	.314	.243	.331	.410	.322
Cole Garner	329	5.2%	28.9%	.164	.307	.234	.281	.398	.291
Hainley Statia	357	7.0%	16.2%	.065	.290	.242	.297	.307	.268
Sean Halton	513	6.4%	23.8%	.132	.301	.243	.296	.375	.291
Kentrail Davis	547	6.8%	26.0%	.108	.315	.235	.299	.343	.283
Hector Gomez	275	3.6%	28.7%	.128	.277	.208	.242	.336	.246
Corey Patterson	390	4.1%	23.1%	.124	.294	.236	.271	.360	.268
Josh Prince	473	7.4%	23.3%	.086	.291	.227	.286	.313	.266
Jay Gibbons	303	6.9%	17.5%	.145	.274	.245	.300	.390	.295
Erick Almonte	217	6.9%	21.7%	.099	.298	.239	.295	.338	.281
Blake Lalli	425	6.4%	18.6%	.099	.293	.249	.296	.348	.278
Rene Tosoni	404	6.9%	25.0%	.124	.280	.220	.281	.344	.272

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Ryan Braun	679	8.0	141	0	5.8	Matt Holliday
Aramis Ramirez	542	6.3	120	-3	3.4	Hank Majeski
Rickie Weeks	587	5.6	110	-5	2.8	Jeff Blauser
Jonathan Lucroy	460	5.2	99	0	2.5	Terry Steinbach
Jean Segura	535	5.1	94	-2	2.3	Royce Clayton
Corey Hart	589	5.9	115	-2	2.2	Rick Reichardt
Carlos Gomez	410	5.0	90	4	2.1	Tim Raines
Norichika Aoki	634	5.2	98	2	1.7	Ted Uhlaender
Martin Maldonado	416	3.6	76	4	1.3	Pete Beeler
Taylor Green	501	4.4	89	0	1.3	Jamie D’Antona
Nyjer Morgan	432	4.1	79	6	1.2	Tom Goodwin
Sea Bass Gonzalez	352	4.2	84	1	1.2	Pete Suder
Scooter Gennett	639	4.3	84	-3	1.1	Martin Prado
Logan Schafer	456	4.4	86	0	1.0	Bubba Crosby
Mat Gamel	328	5.5	105	-1	0.9	Jerry Willard
Jeff Bianchi	489	3.6	69	1	0.8	Mike Champion
Caleb Gindl	572	4.6	91	1	0.8	Dan Peltier
Donnie Murphy	221	4.6	95	-1	0.7	Caonabo Cosme
Hunter Morris	557	4.7	94	-2	0.5	Rico Brogna
Khris Davis	473	4.7	98	-5	0.5	Joe Vitiello
Cole Garner	329	3.9	80	-1	0.0	Sean Barker
Hainley Statia	357	3.2	63	0	-0.1	Mark Germann
Sean Halton	513	3.9	79	1	-0.1	Bryan Lahair
Kentrail Davis	547	3.6	72	2	-0.2	Jalal Leach
Hector Gomez	275	2.7	53	1	-0.2	Brian Shipp
Corey Patterson	390	3.5	68	2	-0.3	Jalal Leach
Josh Prince	473	3.2	61	0	-0.3	Maiko Loyola
Jay Gibbons	303	4.2	84	-5	-0.3	Dann Howitt
Erick Almonte	217	3.5	70	-1	-0.4	Dusty Wathan
Blake Lalli	425	3.6	73	0	-0.6	Andy Barkett
Rene Tosoni	404	3.2	67	-3	-0.9	Scott Seal

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Yovani Gallardo	R	27	32	32	194.0	199	70	22	181	88	82
Shaun Marcum	R	31	27	27	159.7	140	46	19	152	74	69
Mike Fiers	R	28	24	24	134.0	124	48	17	123	62	58
Marco Estrada	R	29	21	21	121.0	114	34	15	118	59	55
Wily Peralta	R	24	30	29	153.3	135	90	14	151	83	78
Mark Rogers	R	25	27	25	109.3	80	85	7	105	61	57
John Axford	R	30	68	0	66.3	83	32	7	56	28	26
Francisco Rodriguez	R	31	67	0	64.0	70	26	7	58	29	27
Michael Olmsted	R	26	39	0	47.3	55	19	5	42	20	19
Chris Narveson	L	31	18	15	87.0	72	33	12	92	50	47
Tom Gorzelanny	L	30	51	0	65.3	67	29	8	62	32	30
Tyler Thornburg	R	24	27	24	121.7	106	64	19	126	75	70
Burke Badenhop	R	30	61	0	66.0	48	21	7	70	34	32
Mike Gonzalez	L	35	43	0	36.0	40	16	5	33	18	17
Manny Parra	L	30	60	0	58.3	57	33	5	57	31	29
Fautino De Los Santos	R	27	48	0	56.0	59	30	6	55	30	28
Jairo Asencio	R	29	47	0	55.3	52	27	7	54	30	28
Taylor Jungmann	R	23	25	25	138.3	73	64	16	159	89	83
Zach Kroenke	L	29	30	15	107.3	56	44	13	127	68	64
Tim Dillard	R	29	48	0	63.0	46	24	8	69	36	34
Robert W00t3n	R	27	55	0	66.7	51	29	8	70	39	36
Vinnie Chulk	R	34	32	0	39.7	31	17	5	44	24	22
Jim Henderson	R	30	55	0	62.0	64	39	8	59	36	34
Jesus Sanchez	R	25	56	0	63.7	44	30	7	68	37	35
Chris Jakubauskas	R	34	24	8	57.7	36	26	8	67	37	35
Hiram Burgos	R	25	24	20	115.7	76	52	17	133	76	71
Brandon Kintzler	R	28	43	0	46.3	35	18	6	52	28	26
Donovan Hand	R	27	46	2	72.3	41	23	9	85	44	41
Ariel Pena	R	24	25	25	125.7	110	88	18	133	83	78
Darren Byrd	R	26	47	0	65.3	48	43	6	68	40	37
Santo Manzanillo	R	24	31	0	35.3	27	25	6	39	26	24
Nick Bucci	R	22	17	17	80.3	60	42	15	92	58	54
Josh Stinson	R	25	39	20	128.0	70	79	16	149	89	83
Miguel De Los Santos	L	24	24	10	65.7	67	57	12	68	49	46
Jim Hoey	R	30	48	0	52.7	41	47	8	58	40	37
Arcenio Leon	R	26	46	0	63.0	53	55	8	67	46	43
Brian Baker	R	30	27	18	96.3	60	59	18	115	76	71
Jed Bradley	L	23	19	19	99.0	45	59	18	125	81	76
Johnny Hellweg	R	24	28	19	100.3	73	101	15	114	82	77

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Yovani Gallardo	194.0	833	23.9%	8.4%	.294	3.80	3.57	97	91
Shaun Marcum	159.7	677	20.7%	6.8%	.284	3.89	3.79	99	97
Mike Fiers	134.0	573	21.6%	8.4%	.280	3.90	4.10	99	105
Marco Estrada	121.0	515	22.1%	6.6%	.294	4.09	3.69	104	94
Wily Peralta	153.3	701	19.3%	12.8%	.302	4.58	4.42	117	113
Mark Rogers	109.3	518	15.4%	16.4%	.289	4.69	4.91	120	125
John Axford	66.3	287	28.9%	11.2%	.299	3.53	3.37	90	86
Francisco Rodriguez	64.0	276	25.4%	9.4%	.297	3.80	3.50	97	89
Michael Olmsted	47.3	203	27.1%	9.4%	.306	3.61	3.54	92	90
Chris Narveson	87.0	386	18.7%	8.5%	.299	4.86	4.37	124	112
Tom Gorzelanny	65.3	287	23.4%	10.1%	.299	4.13	3.97	105	101
Tyler Thornburg	121.7	555	19.1%	11.5%	.299	5.18	5.16	132	132
Burke Badenhop	66.0	289	16.6%	7.3%	.300	4.36	3.88	111	99
Mike Gonzalez	36.0	157	25.5%	10.2%	.295	4.25	4.01	108	102
Manny Parra	58.3	265	21.5%	12.5%	.312	4.47	4.00	114	102
Fautino De Los Santos	56.0	253	23.3%	11.9%	.316	4.50	3.99	115	102
Jairo Asencio	55.3	247	21.1%	10.9%	.296	4.55	4.38	116	112
Taylor Jungmann	138.3	638	11.4%	10.0%	.301	5.40	5.15	138	131
Zach Kroenke	107.3	493	11.4%	8.9%	.305	5.37	5.00	137	127
Tim Dillard	63.0	282	16.3%	8.5%	.303	4.86	4.48	124	114
Robert W00t3n	66.7	299	17.1%	9.7%	.299	4.86	4.52	124	115
Vinnie Chulk	39.7	180	17.2%	9.4%	.312	4.99	4.53	127	116
Jim Henderson	62.0	284	22.5%	13.7%	.302	4.94	4.74	126	121
Jesus Sanchez	63.7	289	15.2%	10.4%	.299	4.95	4.70	126	120
Chris Jakubauskas	57.7	266	13.5%	9.8%	.306	5.46	5.11	139	130
Hiram Burgos	115.7	532	14.3%	9.8%	.306	5.52	5.22	141	133
Brandon Kintzler	46.3	209	16.8%	8.6%	.311	5.05	4.37	129	111
Donovan Hand	72.3	325	12.6%	7.1%	.308	5.10	4.70	130	120
Ariel Pena	125.7	598	18.4%	14.7%	.309	5.59	5.55	143	141
Darren Byrd	65.3	307	15.6%	14.0%	.303	5.10	4.98	130	127
Santo Manzanillo	35.3	170	15.9%	14.7%	.300	6.11	5.98	156	153
Nick Bucci	80.3	375	16.0%	11.2%	.306	6.05	5.82	154	149
Josh Stinson	128.0	612	11.4%	12.9%	.303	5.84	5.64	149	144
Miguel De Los Santos	65.7	322	20.8%	17.7%	.309	6.30	6.26	161	160
Jim Hoey	52.7	263	15.6%	17.9%	.305	6.32	6.30	161	161
Arcenio Leon	63.0	311	17.0%	17.7%	.311	6.14	5.83	157	149
Brian Baker	96.3	463	13.0%	12.7%	.303	6.63	6.27	169	160
Jed Bradley	99.0	481	9.4%	12.3%	.304	6.91	6.55	176	167
Johnny Hellweg	100.3	516	14.2%	19.6%	.310	6.91	6.81	176	174

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Yovani Gallardo	194.0	9.23	3.25	1.02	110	3.9	Jack McDowell
Shaun Marcum	159.7	7.89	2.59	1.07	107	3.0	Pete Harnisch
Mike Fiers	134.0	8.33	3.22	1.14	107	2.5	Cal Eldred
Marco Estrada	121.0	8.48	2.53	1.12	102	2.0	Chris Carpenter
Wily Peralta	153.3	7.93	5.28	0.82	91	1.6	Frank Williams
Mark Rogers	109.3	6.59	7.00	0.58	90	1.1	Dick Ruthven
John Axford	66.3	11.27	4.34	0.95	118	1.0	Mark Clear
Francisco Rodriguez	64.0	9.84	3.66	0.98	110	0.8	Todd Jones
Michael Olmsted	47.3	10.47	3.62	0.95	115	0.7	Rich Garces
Chris Narveson	87.0	7.45	3.41	1.24	86	0.6	Blaine Beatty
Tom Gorzelanny	65.3	9.23	4.00	1.10	101	0.5	Ed Glynn
Tyler Thornburg	121.7	7.84	4.73	1.41	80	0.4	Matt Kinney
Burke Badenhop	66.0	6.55	2.86	0.95	95	0.3	Jay Tessmer
Mike Gonzalez	36.0	10.00	4.00	1.25	98	0.2	Trever Miller
Manny Parra	58.3	8.80	5.09	0.77	93	0.2	J.C. Romero
Fautino De Los Santos	56.0	9.48	4.82	0.96	93	0.2	Kevin Barry
Jairo Asencio	55.3	8.46	4.39	1.14	91	0.2	Mike Butcher
Taylor Jungmann	138.3	4.75	4.16	1.04	77	0.1	John Johnstone
Zach Kroenke	107.3	4.70	3.69	1.09	78	0.0	Jeff Musselman
Tim Dillard	63.0	6.57	3.43	1.14	86	0.0	Kenny Greer
Robert W00t3n	66.7	6.88	3.91	1.08	86	-0.1	Sean 9R33n
Vinnie Chulk	39.7	7.03	3.85	1.13	83	-0.1	Jason Childers
Jim Henderson	62.0	9.29	5.66	1.16	84	-0.1	Calvin Jones
Jesus Sanchez	63.7	6.22	4.24	0.99	84	-0.1	Scott Munter
Chris Jakubauskas	57.7	5.62	4.06	1.25	76	-0.1	Vladimir Nunez
Hiram Burgos	115.7	5.91	4.04	1.32	75	-0.1	Chuck McGrath
Brandon Kintzler	46.3	6.80	3.50	1.17	82	-0.1	John Koronka
Donovan Hand	72.3	5.10	2.86	1.12	82	-0.1	Bill Fischer
Ariel Pena	125.7	7.88	6.30	1.29	75	-0.2	Larry Mitchell
Darren Byrd	65.3	6.62	5.93	0.83	82	-0.2	Heathcliff Slocumb
Santo Manzanillo	35.3	6.88	6.37	1.53	68	-0.6	Agustin Montero
Nick Bucci	80.3	6.72	4.71	1.68	69	-0.6	Chris Clemons
Josh Stinson	128.0	4.92	5.55	1.13	71	-0.7	Jeff Wigdahl
Miguel De Los Santos	65.7	9.18	7.81	1.64	66	-0.8	Roberto Duran
Jim Hoey	52.7	7.00	8.03	1.37	66	-1.0	Marty McLeary
Arcenio Leon	63.0	7.57	7.86	1.14	68	-1.0	Heathcliff Slocumb
Brian Baker	96.3	5.61	5.51	1.68	63	-1.5	Giovanni Carrara
Jed Bradley	99.0	4.09	5.36	1.64	60	-1.8	Josh Stewart
Johnny Hellweg	100.3	6.55	9.06	1.35	60	-1.8	Ken Jones

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.