2013 ZiPS Projections – Minnesota Twins

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Minnesota Twins. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Giants / Mariners / Marlins / Mets / Nationals / Padres / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / White Sox / Yankees.

Batters
The Twins probably don’t have the least impressive set of offensive projections among the now-26 teams considered so far, but they probably do have the least impressive set of offensive projections for a club that also includes a player as good as Joe Mauer. Ben Revere and Denard Span, now both a part of the NL East, combined for seven-plus wins in 2012, and are projected for ca. five wins this season. Their replacements for the moment, Darin Mastroianni and Chris Parmelee — in center and right field, respectively — are projected to be worth only a fifth of that.

The reader will note that Ron Gardenhire’s actual deployment of Ryan Doumit, Joe Mauer, and Justin Morneau will likely be more nuanced than it’s represented in the depth-chart graphic below. The triumvirate made 48, 42, and 34 starts, respectively, at DH in 2012. Plus, Mauer made 30 starts at first base. Plus, Doumit made 56 at catcher. It’s not unreasonable to assume that they’ll be used similarly in 2013.

Pitchers
The author is using something similar to the rhetorical device called litotes when he suggests that the Twins pitching staff — which features just one pitcher (Glen Perkins) projected to record a park-adjusted ERA better than league average — that the Twins staff is “not spectacular.” Right-hander Vance Worley, for example — acquired from Philadelphia in exchange for Ben Revere — is a perfectly serviceable starter, but miscast as the anchor of a staff.

Some cause for optimism, perhaps, is this: there will likely be competition for the Minnesota rotation. Both Kyle Gibson and Mike Pelfrey (whom the Twins signed this offseason) are returning from Tommy John surgery — and right-hander Rich Harden is returning from his own procedure, as well. Even if none of that group have particularly optimistic projections, the sheer quantity of starting candidates will only benefit the Twins.

Bench/Prospects
While Mastroianni or Parmelee could surpass expectations, it’s unlikely that both will — which could create room for both/either Aaron Hicks and/or Joe Benson in the outfield. Both are capable of playing center. The quite young Oswaldo Arcia also made his way to Double-A last season, and is regarded as something better than replacement level by ZiPS. Among pitchers, another piece acquired in the Philadelphia deal, Trevor May, merits some attention. He’s had difficulty with walks, but not with striking people out, which is one of the best things a pitcher can do.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Twins, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Joe Mauer	L	30	C	555	69	144	27	2	10	67	4	3
Josh Willingham	R	34	LF	509	65	107	22	1	24	77	4	1
Aaron Hicks	B	23	CF	603	77	123	23	7	10	48	19	10
Justin Morneau	L	32	1B	443	48	104	23	1	14	59	0	0
Brian Dozier	R	26	SS	615	67	139	25	4	8	54	13	6
Chris Herrmann	L	25	C	550	57	110	19	2	7	46	3	2
Jamey Carroll	R	39	2B	478	52	110	15	3	1	27	8	3
Trevor Plouffe	R	27	3B	530	64	116	24	3	19	56	3	5
Joe Benson	R	25	CF	474	47	91	20	4	12	42	13	9
Josmil Pinto	R	24	C	420	45	90	19	2	9	46	1	1
Chris Parmelee	L	25	1B	590	60	131	26	3	14	63	1	2
Ryan Doumit	B	32	DH	424	40	99	22	1	12	51	1	0
Oswaldo Arcia	L	22	RF	509	57	119	28	5	13	59	3	5
Pedro Florimon	B	26	SS	561	54	121	22	4	6	49	13	10
Eric Fryer	R	27	C	301	34	59	10	2	4	24	4	1
Drew Butera	R	29	C	207	17	43	11	1	2	17	0	0
Eduardo Escobar	B	24	3B	503	50	113	17	5	3	37	9	5
Darin Mastroianni	R	27	LF	514	58	110	16	5	3	32	34	8
Danny Santana	B	22	SS	552	57	124	19	4	8	47	17	16
Tsuyoshi Nishioka	B	28	2B	485	55	114	18	5	3	39	12	9
Clete Thomas	L	29	CF	382	34	73	16	3	8	36	12	3
Brandon Boggs	B	30	RF	434	44	78	17	3	8	37	3	5
Deibinson Romero	R	26	3B	542	52	105	19	2	10	52	1	1
Jeff Clement	L	29	1B	384	42	81	23	1	10	49	1	1
Wilkin Ramirez	R	27	LF	474	50	99	17	4	14	47	14	8
James Beresford	L	24	SS	548	51	123	15	3	0	34	5	10
Sean Burroughs	L	32	1B	248	20	59	13	0	1	19	1	1
Brian Dinkelman	L	29	LF	468	40	98	20	2	4	34	6	4
Ray Olmedo	B	32	SS	440	42	99	16	2	1	26	6	5
Evan Bigley	R	26	RF	564	52	117	25	2	8	48	3	5

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Joe Mauer	555	12.1%	11.7%	.127	.327	.299	.386	.426	.345
Josh Willingham	509	11.8%	24.2%	.222	.285	.247	.350	.469	.352
Aaron Hicks	603	10.8%	24.9%	.126	.301	.232	.314	.358	.295
Justin Morneau	443	9.3%	17.6%	.170	.293	.265	.334	.435	.325
Brian Dozier	615	6.2%	15.4%	.102	.283	.247	.298	.349	.281
Chris Herrmann	550	8.7%	21.1%	.089	.275	.222	.292	.311	.269
Jamey Carroll	478	9.0%	12.1%	.057	.298	.261	.331	.318	.288
Trevor Plouffe	530	7.0%	20.6%	.181	.272	.241	.300	.422	.309
Joe Benson	474	7.8%	30.8%	.149	.292	.213	.287	.362	.282
Josmil Pinto	420	6.0%	22.1%	.129	.278	.231	.279	.360	.277
Chris Parmelee	590	9.3%	20.8%	.141	.297	.249	.322	.390	.308
Ryan Doumit	424	6.6%	19.1%	.155	.292	.256	.311	.411	.309
Oswaldo Arcia	509	6.3%	25.7%	.165	.323	.254	.305	.419	.309
Pedro Florimon	561	6.4%	28.3%	.094	.330	.237	.291	.331	.267
Eric Fryer	301	8.0%	25.6%	.096	.289	.219	.291	.315	.272
Drew Butera	207	4.8%	17.9%	.100	.268	.225	.270	.325	.259
Eduardo Escobar	503	4.6%	21.1%	.077	.306	.243	.278	.320	.258
Darin Mastroianni	514	8.4%	20.6%	.076	.301	.238	.305	.314	.281
Danny Santana	552	4.3%	21.0%	.099	.294	.240	.278	.339	.262
Tsuyoshi Nishioka	485	6.6%	13.6%	.083	.293	.255	.307	.338	.281
Clete Thomas	382	6.0%	31.9%	.130	.289	.206	.258	.336	.261
Brandon Boggs	434	11.1%	29.7%	.124	.287	.206	.299	.330	.275
Deibinson Romero	542	7.6%	24.9%	.108	.273	.216	.283	.324	.269
Jeff Clement	384	6.8%	26.3%	.155	.289	.229	.281	.384	.286
Wilkin Ramirez	474	5.3%	32.3%	.152	.306	.223	.268	.375	.279
James Beresford	548	5.5%	15.1%	.041	.288	.242	.286	.283	.248
Sean Burroughs	248	4.8%	12.5%	.069	.287	.252	.291	.321	.267
Brian Dinkelman	468	6.6%	19.0%	.085	.281	.230	.290	.315	.264
Ray Olmedo	440	4.3%	17.3%	.056	.294	.242	.278	.298	.248
Evan Bigley	564	3.7%	27.1%	.099	.290	.219	.253	.318	.247

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Joe Mauer	555	6.3	125	-2	4.3	Mickey Cochrane
Josh Willingham	509	5.9	125	-5	2.3	Ralph Kiner
Aaron Hicks	603	3.9	86	4	1.7	Larry Whisenton
Justin Morneau	443	5.3	111	1	1.6	Greg Brock
Brian Dozier	615	3.7	79	-2	1.3	Brian Harris
Chris Herrmann	550	3.1	68	3	1.2	Andy Skeels
Jamey Carroll	478	3.9	82	2	1.2	Johnny Temple
Trevor Plouffe	530	4.4	98	-7	1.1	Jeff King
Joe Benson	474	3.4	79	4	0.9	James Sherrill
Josmil Pinto	420	3.5	76	-3	0.8	Joe Depastino
Chris Parmelee	590	4.5	97	-1	0.7	Larry Broadway
Ryan Doumit	424	4.7	98	0	0.6	Dan Rohrmeier
Oswaldo Arcia	509	4.5	98	-3	0.6	Daryl Sconiers
Pedro Florimon	561	3.3	72	-2	0.6	Manuel Lee
Eric Fryer	301	3.2	68	-1	0.5	Luis Taveras
Drew Butera	207	3.1	64	2	0.4	Mike Ryan
Eduardo Escobar	503	3.2	66	3	0.3	Curtis Wilkerson
Darin Mastroianni	514	3.8	72	1	0.3	Andres Torres
Danny Santana	552	3.0	70	-1	0.3	Chris Moritz
Tsuyoshi Nishioka	485	3.6	79	-4	0.2	Melvin Dorta
Clete Thomas	382	3.1	63	1	0.1	Justin Singleton
Brandon Boggs	434	3.2	74	3	-0.1	Jeff Guiel
Deibinson Romero	542	3.1	68	-5	-0.2	Brad Seitzer
Jeff Clement	384	3.8	82	-3	-0.3	Steve Dunn
Wilkin Ramirez	474	3.5	76	-2	-0.5	Nick Gorneault
James Beresford	548	2.6	59	-2	-0.5	Carlos Rojas
Sean Burroughs	248	3.3	70	-2	-0.5	Larry Biittner
Brian Dinkelman	468	3.2	68	0	-0.6	Chip Childress
Ray Olmedo	440	2.9	60	-7	-0.7	Jose Olmeda
Evan Bigley	564	2.7	57	-2	-1.7	Brad Corley

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Vance Worley	R	25	27	26	148.3	110	50	15	162	79	74
Scott Diamond	L	26	30	30	175.0	91	47	16	203	96	90
Carl Pavano	R	37	20	20	124.0	64	22	15	143	70	65
Glen Perkins	L	30	67	0	64.7	63	20	7	61	28	26
Brian Duensing	L	30	43	15	117.3	78	34	14	130	65	61
Mike Pelfrey	R	29	18	18	106.3	57	34	12	123	61	57
Trevor May	R	23	26	26	136.3	129	81	19	136	82	77
Rich Harden	R	31	18	17	90.3	94	39	16	92	54	50
Liam Hendriks	R	24	29	29	160.0	92	53	21	184	98	92
Jared Burton	R	32	44	0	42.0	35	15	5	41	20	19
Kyle Gibson	R	25	16	16	81.3	53	30	11	93	50	47
Matt Capps	R	29	53	0	50.0	32	11	7	54	27	25
Samuel Deduno	R	29	26	17	91.7	69	62	11	95	57	53
Alex Burnett	R	25	67	0	67.0	40	26	6	73	36	34
Josh Roenicke	R	30	56	0	75.0	52	38	8	77	42	39
Cole DeVries	R	28	27	26	140.0	79	32	22	170	90	84
Kevin Correia	R	32	26	23	135.0	76	43	22	156	87	81
B.J. Hermsen	R	23	25	25	144.3	64	42	20	175	93	87
Anthony Slama	R	29	38	0	41.3	39	29	5	40	25	23
Bryan Augenstein	R	26	27	7	64.0	43	23	8	76	41	38
Anthony Swarzak	R	27	35	12	106.7	61	34	15	125	67	63
Lester Oliveros	R	25	44	0	52.7	44	29	6	54	31	29
Michael Tonkin	R	23	46	0	68.0	54	32	8	72	40	37
Scott Elarton	R	37	22	22	91.7	37	41	12	105	61	57
Matt Maloney	L	29	21	13	77.0	42	19	12	96	51	48
Tyler Robertson	L	25	67	0	65.3	51	35	8	69	40	37
Luis Perdomo	R	29	59	0	75.7	46	41	8	82	46	43
Casey Fien	R	29	50	0	56.3	41	21	9	62	35	33
Tim Wood	R	30	51	0	54.0	33	28	6	60	34	32
Caleb Thielbar	L	26	32	0	48.0	32	22	7	55	31	29
P.J. Walters	R	28	25	23	116.3	78	46	19	134	78	73
Esmerling Vasquez	R	29	45	6	80.3	56	53	10	85	52	49
Pedro Hernandez	L	24	23	18	101.3	53	32	17	126	71	66
Deolis Guerra	R	24	37	4	74.3	52	36	13	85	52	49
Ryan Pressly	R	24	30	17	100.0	52	57	16	120	74	69
Nick Blackburn	R	31	24	23	126.7	57	40	22	165	92	86
Shairon Martis	R	26	25	22	122.0	75	58	24	148	92	86
Luke French	L	27	26	23	128.7	58	65	22	159	98	92

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Vance Worley	148.3	657	16.7%	7.6%	.309	4.49	4.08	111	101
Scott Diamond	175.0	775	11.7%	6.1%	.305	4.63	4.20	114	104
Carl Pavano	124.0	537	11.9%	4.1%	.296	4.72	4.32	117	107
Glen Perkins	64.7	275	22.9%	7.3%	.297	3.62	3.56	89	88
Brian Duensing	117.3	516	15.1%	6.6%	.299	4.68	4.24	116	105
Mike Pelfrey	106.3	476	12.0%	7.1%	.300	4.82	4.53	119	112
Trevor May	136.3	626	20.6%	12.9%	.300	5.08	5.03	125	124
Rich Harden	90.3	402	23.4%	9.7%	.304	4.98	4.79	123	118
Liam Hendriks	160.0	717	12.8%	7.4%	.300	5.18	4.84	128	119
Jared Burton	42.0	182	19.2%	8.2%	.290	4.07	4.27	101	105
Kyle Gibson	81.3	367	14.4%	8.2%	.306	5.20	4.88	128	121
Matt Capps	50.0	215	14.9%	5.1%	.287	4.50	4.32	111	107
Samuel Deduno	91.7	432	16.0%	14.3%	.296	5.20	5.42	128	134
Alex Burnett	67.0	300	13.3%	8.7%	.300	4.57	4.35	113	108
Josh Roenicke	75.0	340	15.3%	11.2%	.289	4.68	4.74	116	117
Cole DeVries	140.0	622	12.7%	5.1%	.308	5.40	4.95	133	122
Kevin Correia	135.0	604	12.6%	7.1%	.291	5.40	5.15	133	127
B.J. Hermsen	144.3	650	9.8%	6.5%	.300	5.42	5.11	134	126
Anthony Slama	41.3	193	20.2%	15.0%	.297	5.01	4.97	124	123
Bryan Augenstein	64.0	291	14.8%	7.9%	.319	5.34	4.58	132	113
Anthony Swarzak	106.7	479	12.7%	7.1%	.301	5.32	4.79	131	118
Lester Oliveros	52.7	241	18.2%	12.0%	.302	4.96	4.64	122	114
Michael Tonkin	68.0	308	17.5%	10.4%	.305	4.90	4.66	121	115
Scott Elarton	91.7	421	8.8%	9.7%	.288	5.60	5.64	138	139
Matt Maloney	77.0	346	12.1%	5.5%	.313	5.61	4.97	139	123
Tyler Robertson	65.3	300	17.0%	11.7%	.302	5.10	4.86	126	120
Luis Perdomo	75.7	350	13.1%	11.7%	.296	5.11	5.08	126	125
Casey Fien	56.3	252	16.3%	8.3%	.298	5.27	4.86	130	120
Tim Wood	54.0	250	13.2%	11.2%	.300	5.33	4.90	132	121
Caleb Thielbar	48.0	221	14.5%	10.0%	.306	5.44	5.18	134	128
P.J. Walters	116.3	529	14.7%	8.7%	.303	5.65	5.27	140	130
Esmerling Vasquez	80.3	379	14.8%	14.0%	.297	5.49	5.57	136	137
Pedro Hernandez	101.3	462	11.5%	6.9%	.309	5.86	5.47	145	135
Deolis Guerra	74.3	344	15.1%	10.5%	.303	5.93	5.66	146	140
Ryan Pressly	100.0	477	10.9%	11.9%	.301	6.21	6.11	153	151
Nick Blackburn	126.7	585	9.7%	6.8%	.309	6.11	5.50	151	136
Shairon Martis	122.0	572	13.1%	10.1%	.305	6.34	6.10	157	151
Luke French	128.7	610	9.5%	10.7%	.299	6.44	6.13	159	151

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Vance Worley	148.3	6.68	3.03	0.91	91	1.5	George Stablein
Scott Diamond	175.0	4.68	2.42	0.82	88	1.5	Greg Hibbard
Carl Pavano	124.0	4.65	1.60	1.09	87	0.9	Dick Donovan
Glen Perkins	64.7	8.76	2.78	0.97	113	0.8	Dan Plesac
Brian Duensing	117.3	5.98	2.61	1.07	87	0.7	Ray Fontenot
Mike Pelfrey	106.3	4.83	2.88	1.02	85	0.7	Heath Totten
Trevor May	136.3	8.52	5.35	1.25	80	0.4	Paul Abbott
Rich Harden	90.3	9.37	3.89	1.59	82	0.4	Jeff Juden
Liam Hendriks	160.0	5.18	2.98	1.18	79	0.3	Tim Drew
Jared Burton	42.0	7.50	3.21	1.07	100	0.3	Mark Wohlers
Kyle Gibson	81.3	5.87	3.32	1.22	79	0.1	Jon Ratliff
Matt Capps	50.0	5.76	1.98	1.26	91	0.1	Scott Winchester
Samuel Deduno	91.7	6.77	6.09	1.08	79	0.1	Anastacio Martinez
Alex Burnett	67.0	5.37	3.49	0.81	89	0.1	Jeremy Wedel
Josh Roenicke	75.0	6.24	4.56	0.96	87	0.0	Tony Fiore
Cole DeVries	140.0	5.08	2.06	1.41	76	-0.1	Josh Towers
Kevin Correia	135.0	5.07	2.87	1.47	76	-0.1	Dave Johnson
B.J. Hermsen	144.3	3.99	2.62	1.25	75	-0.2	Mike Lincoln
Anthony Slama	41.3	8.50	6.32	1.09	82	-0.2	Calvin Jones
Bryan Augenstein	64.0	6.05	3.23	1.13	76	-0.2	Trey Witte
Anthony Swarzak	106.7	5.15	2.87	1.27	77	-0.2	Brooks McNiven
Lester Oliveros	52.7	7.51	4.95	1.02	82	-0.2	Bob Gibson
Michael Tonkin	68.0	7.15	4.24	1.06	83	-0.2	Ryan Seifert
Scott Elarton	91.7	3.63	4.02	1.18	73	-0.3	Ed Riley
Matt Maloney	77.0	4.91	2.22	1.40	73	-0.3	Jeff Ballard
Tyler Robertson	65.3	7.03	4.82	1.10	80	-0.3	Chad Brown
Luis Perdomo	75.7	5.47	4.87	0.95	80	-0.4	Tom McCarthy
Casey Fien	56.3	6.55	3.36	1.44	78	-0.4	Tom Niedenfuer
Tim Wood	54.0	5.50	4.67	1.00	77	-0.4	Jarod Juelsgaard
Caleb Thielbar	48.0	6.00	4.13	1.31	75	-0.5	Mike Kinnunen
P.J. Walters	116.3	6.04	3.56	1.47	72	-0.5	Greg Biercevicz
Esmerling Vasquez	80.3	6.28	5.94	1.12	74	-0.5	Jarod Juelsgaard
Pedro Hernandez	101.3	4.71	2.84	1.51	70	-0.7	Mike Ramsey
Deolis Guerra	74.3	6.30	4.36	1.57	69	-0.9	Jeff Robinson
Ryan Pressly	100.0	4.68	5.13	1.44	66	-1.2	Steve Buckholz
Nick Blackburn	126.7	4.05	2.84	1.56	67	-1.2	Dave Johnson
Shairon Martis	122.0	5.53	4.28	1.77	64	-1.5	David Walters
Luke French	128.7	4.06	4.55	1.54	64	-1.7	Dan Smith

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.