2013 ZiPS Projections – New York Mets

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the New York Mets. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rockies / Royals / White Sox.

Batters
Because the author is consumed with sloth, he will not look at the 14 clubs previously considered in this series to verify it, but will instead state the following — namely, that there is a very good chance that Lucas Duda‘s projected defensive rating (-11 runs in left field) is the worst we’ve seen so far. It is also possible, if not likely, that Dan Murphy’s own defensive projection (-7 runs at second base) is the second worst so far by that measure.

Are there bright spots among the Mets’ starting field players? Okay. David Wright remains an All Star candidate, certainly. Ruben Tejada’s performance as a 22-year-old last season has bred encouragement for his future, as well. Furthermore, giving at-bats to players like Andrew Brown, Collin Cowgill, and Anthony Recker — that is, young-ish sorts who’ve demonstrated promise, but have little major-league experience — could produce gains. Otherwise, though, there is little cause for optimism from this squad in its present incarnation.

Pitchers
In 2012, only two pitching staffs (San Diego’s and Minnesota’s) produced a collective WAR of 6.0 or less — which is to say, posting a figure of 6.0 or less is something like an outlier so far as pitching staffs, and the WAR they produce, is concerned. That a system like ZiPS — conservative by nature, owing to the presence of regression — would project, then, a collective WAR as low as ca. 6.0 WAR for a team’s pitching staff is discouraging.

The Mets, of course, are not bound to the particular fate being presented here. It’s possible that Johan Santana will survive for more than 100 innings. It’s even more possible that Jenrry Mejia won’t be given the opportunity to make 13 or whatever entirely fruitless starts. It’s thirdly possible that the club will extract some sort of value from the bullpen. The likely outcome is poor, is the point.

Bench/Prospects
There is hope for the Metropolitans. As the attentive reader will note, three of the top seven WAR projections among Mets’ hitters belong to players (Travis D’Arnaud, Wilmer Flores, and Juan Lagares) who are likely to begin the season in the minors. Add in Wilfredo Tovar, and that ratio becomes four in 10. The pitching depth isn’t quite so, uh… deep, but ZiPS regards Zack Wheeler as nearly a league-average starter already. Finally — and with sympathies to his most vocal supporter — Josh Satin does not appear poised to take the world by storm in 2013.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Mets, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
David Wright	R	30	3B	610	81	146	32	2	19	85	18	9
Ruben Tejada	R	23	SS	610	59	151	28	2	2	40	7	4
Travis D’Arnaud	R	24	C	407	42	97	20	2	13	50	2	1
Ike Davis	L	26	1B	481	58	104	23	1	21	70	1	2
John Buck	R	32	C	411	34	83	16	1	13	50	0	0
Wilmer Flores	R	21	3B	625	66	147	28	3	14	73	2	3
Juan Lagares	R	24	CF	577	59	140	24	8	6	54	16	8
Collin Cowgill	R	27	CF	514	53	115	22	4	8	54	16	5
Dan Murphy	L	28	2B	469	49	123	28	2	6	57	6	3
Wilfredo Tovar	R	21	SS	562	58	123	24	4	2	42	13	10
Brandon Hicks	R	27	SS	452	50	82	20	2	14	46	8	3
Kelly Shoppach	R	33	C	238	21	44	9	1	8	24	0	0
Zach Lutz	R	27	3B	353	39	72	14	1	10	37	0	1
Josh Rodriguez	R	28	SS	443	45	92	16	2	8	43	5	5
Anthony Recker	R	29	C	361	38	74	16	1	10	37	3	2
Matt Den Dekker	L	25	CF	624	70	131	25	9	13	63	17	8
Justin Turner	R	28	2B	395	44	94	23	1	5	39	4	2
Brad Emaus	R	27	2B	365	35	76	15	1	6	33	5	2
Juan Centeno	L	23	C	310	28	72	10	2	1	21	2	1
Lucas Duda	L	27	LF	563	59	123	26	2	18	74	1	0
Scott Hairston	R	33	LF	322	39	75	17	2	12	44	5	2
Ronny Cedeno	R	30	SS	373	36	82	17	2	5	37	4	3
Kirk Nieuwenhuis	L	25	RF	431	57	92	22	3	10	39	8	5
Fred Lewis	L	32	LF	417	50	90	20	5	6	37	12	6
Mike Baxter	L	28	LF	360	43	79	17	4	6	34	7	4
Jordany Valdespin	L	25	2B	474	51	111	19	3	11	47	20	15
Reese Havens	L	26	2B	330	32	57	11	1	7	27	1	1
Brian Bixler	R	30	SS	359	40	71	13	2	4	26	10	4
Oswaldo Navarro	R	28	SS	318	32	63	11	1	3	25	2	2
Cesar Puello	R	22	CF	429	42	88	18	4	7	38	17	7
Sean Kazmar	R	28	SS	425	41	90	18	2	4	39	4	3
Andrew Brown	R	28	LF	491	48	97	19	2	15	54	3	3
Val Pascucci	R	34	RF	432	42	75	15	0	13	47	0	1
Jamie Hoffmann	R	28	LF	511	49	106	20	3	9	53	9	4
Josh Satin	R	28	1B	574	59	122	27	1	9	55	2	4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
David Wright	610	11.3%	20.0%	.175	.320	.274	.357	.449	.340
Ruben Tejada	610	6.7%	13.3%	.068	.314	.272	.328	.341	.295
Travis D’Arnaud	407	5.4%	24.1%	.167	.312	.257	.305	.424	.315
Ike Davis	481	11.0%	24.9%	.208	.290	.245	.328	.453	.332
John Buck	411	9.2%	24.8%	.156	.277	.227	.305	.383	.296
Wilmer Flores	625	5.0%	15.8%	.131	.280	.253	.292	.384	.290
Juan Lagares	577	4.5%	20.5%	.107	.318	.258	.294	.365	.287
Collin Cowgill	514	7.4%	20.2%	.116	.299	.247	.307	.363	.295
Dan Murphy	469	6.0%	11.9%	.115	.310	.282	.325	.397	.311
Wilfredo Tovar	562	6.4%	11.6%	.075	.271	.242	.299	.316	.271
Brandon Hicks	452	8.4%	35.2%	.162	.289	.201	.277	.364	.283
Kelly Shoppach	238	7.6%	33.2%	.168	.295	.212	.301	.380	.297
Zach Lutz	353	9.9%	30.6%	.147	.318	.231	.315	.378	.304
Josh Rodriguez	443	7.9%	25.3%	.110	.297	.230	.293	.340	.276
Anthony Recker	361	8.3%	26.6%	.147	.288	.227	.294	.374	.293
Matt Den Dekker	624	5.6%	32.2%	.144	.325	.229	.279	.373	.281
Justin Turner	395	6.3%	12.7%	.111	.291	.262	.321	.373	.304
Brad Emaus	365	9.3%	16.4%	.108	.268	.235	.309	.343	.288
Juan Centeno	310	5.8%	16.8%	.060	.305	.254	.298	.314	.268
Lucas Duda	563	10.1%	23.3%	.170	.299	.248	.330	.418	.325
Scott Hairston	322	5.9%	19.9%	.191	.281	.252	.301	.443	.320
Ronny Cedeno	373	6.2%	21.7%	.105	.298	.240	.288	.345	.269
Kirk Nieuwenhuis	431	7.9%	30.4%	.149	.327	.236	.301	.385	.297
Fred Lewis	417	9.6%	24.7%	.129	.318	.242	.321	.371	.304
Mike Baxter	360	9.2%	21.1%	.135	.305	.248	.328	.384	.310
Jordany Valdespin	474	4.0%	20.5%	.131	.296	.250	.286	.381	.282
Reese Havens	330	10.9%	34.8%	.118	.298	.197	.292	.315	.271
Brian Bixler	359	7.2%	28.4%	.089	.305	.218	.284	.308	.263
Oswaldo Navarro	318	7.9%	21.7%	.077	.278	.221	.288	.298	.261
Cesar Puello	429	2.8%	27.7%	.118	.297	.222	.272	.340	.270
Sean Kazmar	425	5.2%	17.2%	.087	.270	.229	.273	.316	.256
Andrew Brown	491	8.1%	30.3%	.154	.291	.220	.288	.374	.286
Val Pascucci	432	12.0%	35.0%	.143	.288	.199	.296	.342	.282
Jamie Hoffmann	511	7.6%	22.1%	.115	.281	.230	.292	.345	.279
Josh Satin	574	9.9%	27.7%	.110	.328	.240	.319	.350	.295

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
David Wright	610	6.0	122	-1	4.0	Bob Elliott
Ruben Tejada	610	4.1	86	3	2.2	Bill Knickerbocker
Travis D’Arnaud	407	4.7	99	-2	1.9	Joe Oliver
Ike Davis	481	5.2	114	2	1.9	Paul Sorrento
John Buck	411	4.1	89	-2	1.5	Jody Davis
Wilmer Flores	625	4.0	85	-1	1.2	Blake Dewitt
Juan Lagares	577	3.9	81	3	1.2	Alexis Rios
Collin Cowgill	514	4.1	85	0	1.2	Lou Collier
Dan Murphy	469	4.8	99	-7	1.1	Jeff Treadway
Wilfredo Tovar	562	3.2	71	4	1.1	Aaron Capista
Brandon Hicks	452	3.5	76	-1	0.9	Blake Whealy
Kelly Shoppach	238	3.9	87	-1	0.8	Steve Yeager
Zach Lutz	353	4.1	91	-2	0.8	Roy Smalley
Josh Rodriguez	443	3.4	75	1	0.8	Nick Green
Anthony Recker	361	3.8	84	-4	0.8	Bill Hayes
Matt Den Dekker	624	3.7	79	0	0.8	Todd Dunwoody
Justin Turner	395	4.4	92	-4	0.8	Todd Haney
Brad Emaus	365	3.8	80	0	0.7	John Raifstanger
Juan Centeno	310	3.4	70	1	0.7	Junior Ortiz
Lucas Duda	563	5.0	106	-11	0.7	Jerry Willard
Scott Hairston	322	4.9	103	-3	0.6	Chris Sabo
Ronny Cedeno	373	3.5	74	-1	0.5	Nick Green
Kirk Nieuwenhuis	431	4.0	88	1	0.4	Myron White
Fred Lewis	417	4.2	91	-1	0.4	Michael Tucker
Mike Baxter	360	4.5	96	-2	0.4	Stu Pederson
Jordany Valdespin	474	3.7	83	-4	0.2	Fred Manrique
Reese Havens	330	3.1	68	0	0.2	Jamie Taylor
Brian Bixler	359	3.1	64	-2	0.2	Tommy Murphy
Oswaldo Navarro	318	2.9	63	-1	0.1	Jason Camilli
Cesar Puello	429	3.3	68	-2	-0.1	Luis Saturria
Sean Kazmar	425	3.0	63	-4	-0.2	Joe Millette
Andrew Brown	491	3.7	82	-3	-0.2	Chris Wakeland
Val Pascucci	432	3.4	76	-1	-0.3	Ty Van Burkleo
Jamie Hoffmann	511	3.6	76	-2	-0.4	Chip Childress
Josh Satin	574	3.8	85	-4	-0.4	Chris Shelton

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Matt Harvey	R	24	30	30	163.3	159	70	16	148	74	69
Jon Niese	L	26	29	29	177.3	150	49	19	177	82	77
Zack Wheeler	R	23	25	25	141.7	136	69	11	127	64	60
Johan Santana	L	34	16	16	94.3	77	29	11	92	45	42
Dillon Gee	R	27	23	22	134.3	110	46	18	136	72	67
Cory Mazzoni	R	23	25	25	137.3	87	45	15	147	74	69
Bobby Parnell	R	28	70	0	69.7	66	25	5	66	29	27
Carlos Torres	R	30	36	16	118.7	96	67	11	114	63	59
Chris Young	R	34	13	13	70.3	47	25	9	72	37	35
Ramon Ramirez	R	31	62	0	64.3	54	30	5	59	29	27
Rafael Montero	R	22	19	17	97.0	68	28	13	104	54	50
Jeremy Hefner	R	27	30	24	145.0	91	46	16	160	81	76
Frank Francisco	R	33	51	0	47.7	53	19	5	43	21	20
Jon Rauch	R	34	59	0	50.3	40	13	6	49	24	22
Tim Byrdak	L	39	53	0	28.0	31	15	3	23	13	12
Collin McHugh	R	26	28	23	132.7	102	59	15	142	77	72
Robert Carson	L	24	59	0	67.7	50	30	6	68	34	32
Gonzalez Germen	R	25	21	18	107.3	75	41	14	116	63	59
Scott Rice	L	31	47	0	53.3	36	29	4	54	28	26
Jenrry Mejia	R	23	24	13	75.0	41	37	7	82	45	42
Justin Hampson	L	33	55	0	60.3	43	27	6	62	32	30
Aaron Laffey	L	28	37	14	105.7	55	48	12	115	62	58
Greg Burke	R	30	51	0	63.7	45	28	7	66	34	32
Josh Edgin	L	26	52	0	50.7	48	28	7	49	28	26
Chris Schwinden	R	26	27	24	129.3	87	48	17	146	78	73
Manny Acosta	R	32	58	0	65.0	60	30	8	63	35	33
Jeurys Familia	R	23	30	26	126.7	102	84	13	130	77	72
Darin Gorski	L	25	25	21	118.0	92	52	20	129	76	71
Elvin Ramirez	R	25	58	0	72.7	64	61	7	69	44	41

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Matt Harvey	163.3	708	22.5%	9.9%	.292	3.80	3.89	101	103
Jon Niese	177.3	758	19.8%	6.5%	.295	3.91	3.65	104	97
Zack Wheeler	141.7	621	21.9%	11.1%	.291	3.81	3.83	101	102
Johan Santana	94.3	404	19.1%	7.2%	.284	4.01	3.82	106	101
Dillon Gee	134.3	585	18.8%	7.9%	.294	4.49	4.38	119	116
Cory Mazzoni	137.3	604	14.4%	7.4%	.294	4.52	4.37	120	116
Bobby Parnell	69.7	300	22.1%	8.3%	.299	3.49	3.24	93	86
Carlos Torres	118.7	537	17.9%	12.6%	.289	4.47	4.53	119	120
Chris Young	70.3	309	15.1%	8.2%	.282	4.48	4.42	119	118
Ramon Ramirez	64.3	282	19.3%	10.8%	.280	3.78	3.73	100	99
Rafael Montero	97.0	423	16.1%	6.6%	.295	4.64	4.48	123	119
Jeremy Hefner	145.0	641	14.2%	7.2%	.299	4.72	4.34	125	115
Frank Francisco	47.7	206	25.6%	9.4%	.299	3.78	3.34	100	89
Jon Rauch	50.3	213	18.7%	6.2%	.280	3.93	3.77	105	100
Tim Byrdak	28.0	122	25.5%	12.3%	.286	3.86	3.35	102	89
Collin McHugh	132.7	599	17.1%	9.9%	.306	4.88	4.55	130	121
Robert Carson	67.7	301	16.6%	10.0%	.295	4.26	4.19	113	111
Gonzalez Germen	107.3	479	15.6%	8.6%	.297	4.95	4.73	131	126
Scott Rice	53.3	243	14.9%	12.0%	.293	4.39	4.52	117	120
Jenrry Mejia	75.0	344	11.9%	10.7%	.294	5.04	4.88	134	130
Justin Hampson	60.3	270	15.9%	10.2%	.293	4.48	4.50	119	119
Aaron Laffey	105.7	480	11.5%	10.0%	.288	4.94	4.96	131	132
Greg Burke	63.7	285	15.9%	9.9%	.295	4.52	4.42	120	117
Josh Edgin	50.7	228	20.9%	12.0%	.297	4.62	4.71	123	125
Chris Schwinden	129.3	582	14.9%	8.3%	.304	5.08	4.68	135	124
Manny Acosta	65.0	288	20.7%	10.4%	.295	4.57	4.35	121	116
Jeurys Familia	126.7	594	17.2%	14.1%	.302	5.12	4.95	136	132
Darin Gorski	118.0	535	17.2%	9.8%	.298	5.42	5.24	144	139
Elvin Ramirez	72.7	348	18.3%	17.6%	.291	5.08	5.18	135	138

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Matt Harvey	163.3	8.79	3.87	0.89	99	2.2	Mike Bielecki
Jon Niese	177.3	7.62	2.51	0.95	96	2.1	Frank Tanana
Zack Wheeler	141.7	8.62	4.36	0.73	99	1.9	Jason Schmidt
Johan Santana	94.3	7.38	2.76	1.02	94	1.0	Mike Flanagan
Dillon Gee	134.3	7.36	3.09	1.20	84	0.7	Chris Young
Cory Mazzoni	137.3	5.70	2.95	0.97	83	0.6	Josh Fogg
Bobby Parnell	69.7	8.53	3.22	0.70	108	0.6	Bert Roberge
Carlos Torres	118.7	7.31	5.12	0.85	84	0.4	Bill Zuber
Chris Young	70.3	5.97	3.25	1.09	84	0.4	Bob Milacki
Ramon Ramirez	64.3	7.62	4.26	0.73	100	0.3	Marc Wilkins
Rafael Montero	97.0	6.32	2.58	1.21	81	0.3	Gil Heredia
Jeremy Hefner	145.0	5.65	2.85	1.01	80	0.3	Michael Macdonald
Frank Francisco	47.7	9.95	3.65	0.90	100	0.2	Jeff Parrett
Jon Rauch	50.3	7.10	2.35	1.02	96	0.1	Elias Sosa
Tim Byrdak	28.0	10.02	4.83	0.82	98	0.1	Jesse Orosco
Collin McHugh	132.7	6.95	4.01	1.04	77	0.0	Don Robinson
Robert Carson	67.7	6.65	4.02	0.76	88	-0.1	Jonathon Rouwenhorst
Gonzalez Germen	107.3	6.27	3.47	1.18	76	-0.1	Eric Boudreaux
Scott Rice	53.3	6.11	4.92	0.67	86	-0.2	Matt Whisenant
Jenrry Mejia	75.0	4.90	4.43	0.89	75	-0.2	Don Carrithers
Justin Hampson	60.3	6.39	4.10	0.90	84	-0.2	C.J. Nitkowski
Aaron Laffey	105.7	4.72	4.07	1.00	76	-0.3	Rich Rundles
Greg Burke	63.7	6.42	3.98	0.92	83	-0.3	Jake Robbins
Josh Edgin	50.7	8.47	4.88	1.17	82	-0.3	Mike Johnston
Chris Schwinden	129.3	6.02	3.36	1.17	74	-0.3	Andy Taulbee
Manny Acosta	65.0	8.27	4.13	1.12	82	-0.3	Doug Bochtler
Jeurys Familia	126.7	7.24	5.96	0.89	74	-0.4	Brian Wood
Darin Gorski	118.0	7.00	3.98	1.56	70	-0.8	Danny Christensen
Elvin Ramirez	72.7	7.89	7.58	0.85	74	-0.8	Ryan Henderson

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.