2013 ZiPS Projections – Pittsburgh Pirates

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Rangers / Royals.

Batters
Andrew McCutchen’s projection unsurprisingly places him among the early candidates for the NL MVP award. Certain readers might note, however, that the WAR forecast here represents a decline not only from his excellent 2012 season, but also (by a slight margin) his 2011 one — despite the fact that he’s still theoretically on the upward slope of his age curve. I asked Szymborski about this, to which he responded, as follows:

Regression to mean. Great players usually have (and should have) lower projections than years in which very little went wrong — the risk is generally one-sided. And in this case, Cutch has that .375 BABIP in 2012 as well. ZiPS still gives him a 35% chance of a 140+ OPS+, 8% 160+.

Part of the difference is the defense — the projection’s the same as his 2011 fWAR minus 4 runs of defense.

While McCutchen has been Pittsburgh’s best field player in each of his first four seasons, ZiPS is optimistic that the club’s supporting cast will be more, uh… supportive than in previous seasons. Since 2009, never has McCutchen had more than three teammates with a season WAR total of 2.0 or greater. ZiPS projects four such players in 2013: Pedro Alvarez, Starling Marte, Russell Martin, and Neil Walker.

Pitchers
I’ve noticed, while writing these pieces in accompaniment of Szymborski’s projections, that a certain portion of each fanbase will make a comment to the effect that ZiPS “hates,” or is somehow biased against, their particular team. Most of these remarks are tongue-in-cheek; a few, less clearly so. In any case, owing to how ZiPS is mostly just a giant math problem in Dan Szymborski’s computer, its capacity for bearing a grudge against this or that major-league baseball franchise is pretty limited.

In the spirit, though, of attributing human qualities to said giant math problem, it would probably be fair to say about ZiPS that — while it doesn’t hate the Pirates pitching staff — that it’s at least thoroughly unimpressed by those qualities in the Pirates pitchers which correlate most strongly with future run prevention. With the exception of Wandy Rodriguez and (just barely) A.J. Burnett, none of the team’s starters are even viewed as average.

Bench/Prospects
If Pittsburgh lacks major league-ready starters, it does have a few young ones who are showing promise. Right-handers Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon enter their age-22 and -21 seasons, respectively, and both profile as better than replacement-level already. Also of note is the less heralded and older Phil Irwin. After spending much of the season at Double-A in 2012, Irwin made four dominant starts at Triple-A, posting this line: 21.0 IP, 28 K, 7 BB, 1 HR, 2.30 FIP.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Pirates, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Andrew McCutchen	R	26	CF	673	105	165	31	6	24	84	23	11
Neil Walker	B	27	2B	617	75	150	35	3	16	86	8	5
Pedro Alvarez	L	26	3B	610	72	128	26	2	29	92	2	1
Starling Marte	R	24	CF	578	75	141	27	14	11	68	24	12
Russell Martin	R	30	C	466	49	97	19	0	12	46	7	2
Clint Barmes	R	34	SS	475	42	103	21	1	9	47	3	3
Chase d’Arnaud	R	26	SS	532	67	110	26	8	6	49	24	5
Alex Presley	L	27	LF	607	82	146	24	13	13	60	15	8
Gaby Sanchez	R	29	1B	541	59	123	29	1	14	58	3	1
Tony Sanchez	R	25	C	395	39	79	19	1	5	40	2	2
Rod Barajas	R	37	C	328	29	68	13	0	12	36	0	0
Garrett Jones	L	32	1B	530	64	122	29	2	20	74	5	2
Jose Tabata	R	24	RF	580	80	136	31	4	5	36	19	12
Michael McKenry	R	28	C	335	29	68	17	0	8	34	1	1
Jordy Mercer	R	26	SS	500	59	108	27	3	8	53	5	4
Jared Goedert	R	28	3B	483	50	108	24	1	11	48	1	0
Jerry Sands	R	25	LF	564	66	119	24	4	16	69	4	1
Josh Harrison	R	25	2B	481	62	115	23	5	5	40	12	6
Travis Snider	L	25	LF	497	56	115	27	1	13	54	9	4
Felix Pie	L	28	RF	325	35	78	19	6	4	29	7	1
Matt Hague	R	27	3B	571	63	134	26	1	8	59	3	3
Ali Solis	R	25	C	297	28	64	16	1	5	29	1	1
Hector Luna	R	33	3B	395	38	91	16	2	8	40	4	1
Clint Robinson	L	28	1B	577	56	130	33	2	12	57	2	1
Darren Ford	R	27	CF	402	47	86	14	5	4	31	25	13
Drew Sutton	B	30	2B	339	32	69	20	2	3	29	2	3
Jose Morales	B	30	C	211	18	44	9	1	1	18	0	1
Anderson Hernandez	B	30	2B	445	40	99	14	4	3	34	7	5
Jeff Larish	L	30	1B	302	28	55	15	1	7	31	1	1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Andrew McCutchen	673	11.4%	18.0%	.197	.318	.283	.369	.480	.361
Neil Walker	617	7.9%	18.5%	.160	.309	.270	.328	.430	.325
Pedro Alvarez	610	10.2%	31.1%	.215	.302	.236	.313	.451	.324
Starling Marte	578	4.3%	22.8%	.164	.329	.264	.310	.428	.314
Russell Martin	466	10.3%	16.1%	.135	.264	.238	.328	.373	.308
Clint Barmes	475	5.5%	18.7%	.116	.277	.237	.289	.353	.273
Chase d’Arnaud	532	6.4%	21.6%	.124	.283	.226	.285	.350	.284
Alex Presley	607	6.1%	18.0%	.159	.302	.260	.308	.419	.312
Gaby Sanchez	541	8.7%	14.6%	.151	.276	.254	.324	.405	.316
Tony Sanchez	395	8.4%	22.0%	.103	.285	.226	.305	.329	.281
Rod Barajas	328	7.3%	20.4%	.166	.256	.231	.297	.397	.294
Garrett Jones	530	7.7%	21.1%	.193	.287	.253	.309	.446	.322
Jose Tabata	580	7.9%	15.0%	.104	.305	.262	.329	.366	.303
Michael McKenry	335	8.7%	24.8%	.138	.284	.227	.297	.365	.288
Jordy Mercer	500	5.4%	18.2%	.125	.275	.236	.286	.361	.279
Jared Goedert	483	6.6%	20.5%	.132	.286	.243	.294	.375	.292
Jerry Sands	564	8.5%	25.0%	.158	.291	.236	.304	.394	.303
Josh Harrison	481	3.7%	12.1%	.109	.288	.261	.299	.370	.285
Travis Snider	497	7.4%	22.7%	.150	.307	.253	.310	.403	.309
Felix Pie	325	4.9%	16.3%	.141	.297	.257	.296	.398	.301
Matt Hague	571	6.0%	14.2%	.099	.284	.253	.303	.352	.286
Ali Solis	297	2.7%	28.6%	.115	.301	.225	.250	.340	.256
Hector Luna	395	5.6%	16.2%	.120	.279	.248	.294	.368	.291
Clint Robinson	577	7.5%	16.8%	.138	.280	.247	.307	.385	.300
Darren Ford	402	6.0%	23.6%	.097	.299	.231	.283	.328	.269
Drew Sutton	339	8.6%	23.0%	.110	.297	.230	.304	.340	.280
Jose Morales	211	9.0%	19.9%	.075	.293	.235	.305	.310	.266
Anderson Hernandez	445	4.9%	15.5%	.075	.277	.238	.277	.313	.256
Jeff Larish	302	9.9%	29.1%	.142	.274	.204	.288	.346	.277

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Andrew McCutchen	673	6.7	134	-1	5.3	Ben Chapman
Neil Walker	617	5.2	108	-3	2.9	Lee Walls
Pedro Alvarez	610	5.0	109	-5	2.7	Mike Pagliarulo
Starling Marte	578	4.9	102	3	2.6	Adam Jones
Russell Martin	466	4.4	94	-1	2.3	Al Lopez
Clint Barmes	475	3.5	77	8	1.9	Jason Wood
Chase d’Arnaud	532	3.8	75	1	1.7	Chris Basak
Alex Presley	607	4.7	100	1	1.6	Stu Pederson
Gaby Sanchez	541	4.8	101	2	1.5	Peter Zoccolillo
Tony Sanchez	395	3.4	76	3	1.3	B.J. Waszgis
Rod Barajas	328	4.1	90	-1	1.3	Jim Hegan
Garrett Jones	530	5.0	107	-4	1.2	Jermaine Dye
Jose Tabata	580	4.3	93	2	1.1	Jerome Walton
Michael McKenry	335	3.8	83	-1	1.1	Del Rice
Jordy Mercer	500	3.6	78	-1	1.0	Luis Rivera
Jared Goedert	483	4.0	84	-3	0.9	Josh Klimek
Jerry Sands	564	4.3	92	-1	0.9	Jason Botts
Josh Harrison	481	4.1	85	-3	0.8	Alberto Gonzalez
Travis Snider	497	4.5	96	-2	0.8	Travis Ishikawa
Felix Pie	325	4.5	91	2	0.8	Larry Barnes
Matt Hague	571	3.8	81	-4	0.7	Agustin Murillo
Ali Solis	297	2.9	62	3	0.7	Johnny Cuevas
Hector Luna	395	3.9	82	-4	0.5	Charlie Hayes
Clint Robinson	577	4.2	91	-1	0.5	Jose Tolentino
Darren Ford	402	3.2	69	3	0.4	Chris Roberson
Drew Sutton	339	3.5	79	-4	0.1	Bobby Scales
Jose Morales	211	3.2	71	-4	0.0	Dwight Lowry
Anderson Hernandez	445	3.0	63	-1	-0.1	Rondin Johnson
Jeff Larish	302	3.3	75	-2	-0.4	Steve Neal

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Wandy Rodriguez	L	34	29	29	180.3	136	53	15	170	77	72
A.J. Burnett	R	36	29	28	172.3	140	62	17	172	83	78
James McDonald	R	28	28	26	150.7	130	63	17	143	74	69
Gerrit Cole	R	22	23	23	133.3	110	54	11	134	65	61
Jeff Karstens	R	30	25	20	121.0	79	25	15	127	60	56
Phil Irwin	R	26	24	22	123.0	80	29	13	131	63	59
Vin Mazzaro	R	26	33	19	129.3	85	52	11	134	66	62
Kyle McPherson	R	25	26	21	116.0	85	30	15	121	60	56
Jason Grilli	R	36	54	0	53.7	68	21	5	44	20	19
Jameson Taillon	R	21	21	21	116.0	77	40	12	122	62	58
Mark Melancon	R	28	57	0	59.7	53	17	5	55	25	23
Tony Watson	L	28	68	0	59.3	57	26	6	52	26	24
Vic Black	R	25	44	0	51.7	56	25	4	45	22	21
Jared Hughes	R	27	68	0	75.7	50	24	7	74	34	32
Jeff Locke	L	25	29	28	150.0	109	60	17	159	83	78
Charlie Morton	R	29	19	19	110.3	67	40	10	124	62	58
Jeanmar Gomez	R	25	29	27	156.7	86	55	16	174	89	83
Chris Leroux	R	29	42	4	70.7	51	24	7	74	36	34
Mike Zagurski	L	30	51	0	49.7	45	25	5	47	25	23
Chad Qualls	R	34	62	0	56.3	35	15	5	61	29	27
David Bromberg	R	25	26	14	91.0	58	45	9	98	54	50
Doug Slaten	L	33	45	0	41.3	27	18	4	44	22	21
Justin Wilson	L	25	32	23	121.0	92	80	14	123	74	69
Erik Cordier	R	27	21	14	73.7	46	56	7	79	47	44
Hunter Strickland	R	24	25	9	73.3	36	24	10	86	46	43
Zach Stewart	R	26	28	20	118.7	66	39	15	138	73	68
Duke Welker	R	27	43	0	50.7	35	39	4	51	31	29
Ryan Reid	R	28	41	3	70.0	44	35	8	77	43	40
Bryan Morris	R	26	51	0	80.7	57	26	10	89	46	43
Stolmy Pimentel	R	23	24	23	105.3	60	44	13	124	67	63
Kris Harvey	R	29	35	0	51.0	34	28	6	55	32	30
Andrew Oliver	L	25	27	23	123.0	88	95	14	127	80	75
Brooks Brown	R	28	25	18	102.0	50	59	12	117	70	65

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Wandy Rodriguez	180.3	764	17.8%	6.9%	.279	3.59	3.57	94	94
A.J. Burnett	172.3	751	18.6%	8.3%	.297	4.07	3.99	107	105
James McDonald	150.7	658	19.8%	9.6%	.284	4.12	4.07	108	107
Gerrit Cole	133.3	588	18.7%	9.2%	.303	4.12	3.89	108	102
Jeff Karstens	121.0	515	15.3%	4.9%	.284	4.17	4.00	110	105
Phil Irwin	123.0	529	15.1%	5.5%	.295	4.32	4.02	114	106
Vin Mazzaro	129.3	574	14.8%	9.1%	.294	4.31	4.21	113	111
Kyle McPherson	116.0	499	17.0%	6.0%	.293	4.34	4.24	114	112
Jason Grilli	53.7	226	30.1%	9.3%	.302	3.19	2.89	84	76
Jameson Taillon	116.0	510	15.1%	7.8%	.295	4.50	4.35	118	114
Mark Melancon	59.7	251	21.1%	6.8%	.289	3.47	3.31	91	87
Tony Watson	59.3	256	22.3%	10.2%	.279	3.64	3.75	96	99
Vic Black	51.7	225	24.9%	11.1%	.299	3.66	3.56	96	94
Jared Hughes	75.7	325	15.4%	7.4%	.280	3.81	3.97	100	104
Jeff Locke	150.0	669	16.3%	9.0%	.300	4.68	4.48	123	118
Charlie Morton	110.3	495	13.5%	8.1%	.307	4.73	4.26	124	112
Jeanmar Gomez	156.7	699	12.3%	7.9%	.296	4.77	4.45	125	117
Chris Leroux	70.7	310	16.4%	7.7%	.299	4.33	4.04	114	106
Mike Zagurski	49.7	221	20.4%	11.3%	.291	4.17	4.16	110	109
Chad Qualls	56.3	245	14.3%	6.1%	.295	4.31	3.70	113	97
David Bromberg	91.0	416	13.9%	10.8%	.298	4.95	4.72	130	124
Doug Slaten	41.3	186	14.5%	9.7%	.299	4.57	4.43	120	116
Justin Wilson	121.0	566	16.3%	14.1%	.293	5.13	5.21	135	137
Erik Cordier	73.7	356	12.9%	15.7%	.296	5.38	5.48	141	144
Hunter Strickland	73.3	330	10.9%	7.3%	.298	5.28	5.07	139	133
Zach Stewart	118.7	533	12.4%	7.3%	.302	5.16	4.74	136	125
Duke Welker	50.7	242	14.5%	16.1%	.294	5.15	5.28	135	139
Ryan Reid	70.0	322	13.7%	10.9%	.299	5.14	4.95	135	130
Bryan Morris	80.7	357	16.0%	7.3%	.306	4.80	4.48	126	118
Stolmy Pimentel	105.3	484	12.4%	9.1%	.308	5.38	4.98	141	131
Kris Harvey	51.0	236	14.4%	11.9%	.297	5.29	5.06	139	133
Andrew Oliver	123.0	591	14.9%	16.1%	.293	5.49	5.63	144	148
Brooks Brown	102.0	482	10.4%	12.2%	.297	5.74	5.56	151	146

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Wandy Rodriguez	180.3	6.79	2.65	0.75	103	2.7	Kenny Rogers
A.J. Burnett	172.3	7.31	3.24	0.89	91	1.5	Kevin Gross
James McDonald	150.7	7.76	3.76	1.02	90	1.2	Charlie Puleo
Gerrit Cole	133.3	7.43	3.65	0.74	90	1.1	Ken Hill
Jeff Karstens	121.0	5.88	1.86	1.12	89	0.9	Matt Ginter
Phil Irwin	123.0	5.85	2.12	0.95	86	0.7	Dave Telgheder
Vin Mazzaro	129.3	5.92	3.62	0.77	86	0.6	Jim Acker
Kyle McPherson	116.0	6.59	2.33	1.16	85	0.6	John Dettmer
Jason Grilli	53.7	11.40	3.52	0.84	116	0.6	Rudy Seanez
Jameson Taillon	116.0	5.97	3.10	0.93	82	0.4	Kevin Brown
Mark Melancon	59.7	7.99	2.56	0.75	107	0.4	Mark Huismann
Tony Watson	59.3	8.65	3.95	0.91	101	0.3	Armando Almanza
Vic Black	51.7	9.75	4.35	0.70	101	0.2	Brian Bruney
Jared Hughes	75.7	5.94	2.85	0.83	97	0.2	Brian Wolfe
Jeff Locke	150.0	6.54	3.60	1.02	79	0.2	Dan Serafini
Charlie Morton	110.3	5.47	3.26	0.82	78	0.1	Chris Beasley
Jeanmar Gomez	156.7	4.94	3.16	0.92	77	0.0	Brian Moehler
Chris Leroux	70.7	6.49	3.06	0.89	85	0.0	Rick Heiserman
Mike Zagurski	49.7	8.15	4.53	0.91	89	-0.1	Kevin Tolar
Chad Qualls	56.3	5.60	2.40	0.80	86	-0.2	Jose Bautista
David Bromberg	91.0	5.74	4.45	0.89	75	-0.3	Danny Kolb
Doug Slaten	41.3	5.88	3.92	0.87	81	-0.3	Mike Venafro
Justin Wilson	121.0	6.84	5.95	1.04	72	-0.6	Dennis Gray
Erik Cordier	73.7	5.62	6.84	0.85	69	-0.6	Jesse Jefferson
Hunter Strickland	73.3	4.42	2.95	1.23	70	-0.6	Brian Wolfe
Zach Stewart	118.7	5.00	2.96	1.14	72	-0.6	Scott Barber
Duke Welker	50.7	6.21	6.92	0.71	72	-0.7	Johnny Humphries
Ryan Reid	70.0	5.66	4.50	1.03	72	-0.7	Marty McLeary
Bryan Morris	80.7	6.36	2.90	1.12	77	-0.7	Ron Rightnowar
Stolmy Pimentel	105.3	5.13	3.76	1.11	69	-0.8	Matt Avery
Kris Harvey	51.0	6.00	4.94	1.06	70	-0.8	James Warden
Andrew Oliver	123.0	6.44	6.95	1.02	67	-1.1	Scotty Baker
Brooks Brown	102.0	4.41	5.21	1.06	64	-1.2	Mike Heathcott

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.