2013 ZiPS Projections – Pittsburgh Pirates

by
January 14, 2013

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Rangers / Royals.

Batters
Andrew McCutchen’s projection unsurprisingly places him among the early candidates for the NL MVP award. Certain readers might note, however, that the WAR forecast here represents a decline not only from his excellent 2012 season, but also (by a slight margin) his 2011 one — despite the fact that he’s still theoretically on the upward slope of his age curve. I asked Szymborski about this, to which he responded, as follows:

Regression to mean. Great players usually have (and should have) lower projections than years in which very little went wrong — the risk is generally one-sided. And in this case, Cutch has that .375 BABIP in 2012 as well. ZiPS still gives him a 35% chance of a 140+ OPS+, 8% 160+.

Part of the difference is the defense — the projection’s the same as his 2011 fWAR minus 4 runs of defense.

While McCutchen has been Pittsburgh’s best field player in each of his first four seasons, ZiPS is optimistic that the club’s supporting cast will be more, uh… supportive than in previous seasons. Since 2009, never has McCutchen had more than three teammates with a season WAR total of 2.0 or greater. ZiPS projects four such players in 2013: Pedro Alvarez, Starling Marte, Russell Martin, and Neil Walker.

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Pitchers
I’ve noticed, while writing these pieces in accompaniment of Szymborski’s projections, that a certain portion of each fanbase will make a comment to the effect that ZiPS “hates,” or is somehow biased against, their particular team. Most of these remarks are tongue-in-cheek; a few, less clearly so. In any case, owing to how ZiPS is mostly just a giant math problem in Dan Szymborski’s computer, its capacity for bearing a grudge against this or that major-league baseball franchise is pretty limited.

In the spirit, though, of attributing human qualities to said giant math problem, it would probably be fair to say about ZiPS that — while it doesn’t hate the Pirates pitching staff — that it’s at least thoroughly unimpressed by those qualities in the Pirates pitchers which correlate most strongly with future run prevention. With the exception of Wandy Rodriguez and (just barely) A.J. Burnett, none of the team’s starters are even viewed as average.

Bench/Prospects
If Pittsburgh lacks major league-ready starters, it does have a few young ones who are showing promise. Right-handers Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon enter their age-22 and -21 seasons, respectively, and both profile as better than replacement-level already. Also of note is the less heralded and older Phil Irwin. After spending much of the season at Double-A in 2012, Irwin made four dominant starts at Triple-A, posting this line: 21.0 IP, 28 K, 7 BB, 1 HR, 2.30 FIP.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Pirates, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Pirates Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Andrew McCutchen R 26 CF 673 105 165 31 6 24 84 23 11
Neil Walker B 27 2B 617 75 150 35 3 16 86 8 5
Pedro Alvarez L 26 3B 610 72 128 26 2 29 92 2 1
Starling Marte R 24 CF 578 75 141 27 14 11 68 24 12
Russell Martin R 30 C 466 49 97 19 0 12 46 7 2
Clint Barmes R 34 SS 475 42 103 21 1 9 47 3 3
Chase d’Arnaud R 26 SS 532 67 110 26 8 6 49 24 5
Alex Presley L 27 LF 607 82 146 24 13 13 60 15 8
Gaby Sanchez R 29 1B 541 59 123 29 1 14 58 3 1
Tony Sanchez R 25 C 395 39 79 19 1 5 40 2 2
Rod Barajas R 37 C 328 29 68 13 0 12 36 0 0
Garrett Jones L 32 1B 530 64 122 29 2 20 74 5 2
Jose Tabata R 24 RF 580 80 136 31 4 5 36 19 12
Michael McKenry R 28 C 335 29 68 17 0 8 34 1 1
Jordy Mercer R 26 SS 500 59 108 27 3 8 53 5 4
Jared Goedert R 28 3B 483 50 108 24 1 11 48 1 0
Jerry Sands R 25 LF 564 66 119 24 4 16 69 4 1
Josh Harrison R 25 2B 481 62 115 23 5 5 40 12 6
Travis Snider L 25 LF 497 56 115 27 1 13 54 9 4
Felix Pie L 28 RF 325 35 78 19 6 4 29 7 1
Matt Hague R 27 3B 571 63 134 26 1 8 59 3 3
Ali Solis R 25 C 297 28 64 16 1 5 29 1 1
Hector Luna R 33 3B 395 38 91 16 2 8 40 4 1
Clint Robinson L 28 1B 577 56 130 33 2 12 57 2 1
Darren Ford R 27 CF 402 47 86 14 5 4 31 25 13
Drew Sutton B 30 2B 339 32 69 20 2 3 29 2 3
Jose Morales B 30 C 211 18 44 9 1 1 18 0 1
Anderson Hernandez B 30 2B 445 40 99 14 4 3 34 7 5
Jeff Larish L 30 1B 302 28 55 15 1 7 31 1 1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Andrew McCutchen 673 11.4% 18.0% .197 .318 .283 .369 .480 .361
Neil Walker 617 7.9% 18.5% .160 .309 .270 .328 .430 .325
Pedro Alvarez 610 10.2% 31.1% .215 .302 .236 .313 .451 .324
Starling Marte 578 4.3% 22.8% .164 .329 .264 .310 .428 .314
Russell Martin 466 10.3% 16.1% .135 .264 .238 .328 .373 .308
Clint Barmes 475 5.5% 18.7% .116 .277 .237 .289 .353 .273
Chase d’Arnaud 532 6.4% 21.6% .124 .283 .226 .285 .350 .284
Alex Presley 607 6.1% 18.0% .159 .302 .260 .308 .419 .312
Gaby Sanchez 541 8.7% 14.6% .151 .276 .254 .324 .405 .316
Tony Sanchez 395 8.4% 22.0% .103 .285 .226 .305 .329 .281
Rod Barajas 328 7.3% 20.4% .166 .256 .231 .297 .397 .294
Garrett Jones 530 7.7% 21.1% .193 .287 .253 .309 .446 .322
Jose Tabata 580 7.9% 15.0% .104 .305 .262 .329 .366 .303
Michael McKenry 335 8.7% 24.8% .138 .284 .227 .297 .365 .288
Jordy Mercer 500 5.4% 18.2% .125 .275 .236 .286 .361 .279
Jared Goedert 483 6.6% 20.5% .132 .286 .243 .294 .375 .292
Jerry Sands 564 8.5% 25.0% .158 .291 .236 .304 .394 .303
Josh Harrison 481 3.7% 12.1% .109 .288 .261 .299 .370 .285
Travis Snider 497 7.4% 22.7% .150 .307 .253 .310 .403 .309
Felix Pie 325 4.9% 16.3% .141 .297 .257 .296 .398 .301
Matt Hague 571 6.0% 14.2% .099 .284 .253 .303 .352 .286
Ali Solis 297 2.7% 28.6% .115 .301 .225 .250 .340 .256
Hector Luna 395 5.6% 16.2% .120 .279 .248 .294 .368 .291
Clint Robinson 577 7.5% 16.8% .138 .280 .247 .307 .385 .300
Darren Ford 402 6.0% 23.6% .097 .299 .231 .283 .328 .269
Drew Sutton 339 8.6% 23.0% .110 .297 .230 .304 .340 .280
Jose Morales 211 9.0% 19.9% .075 .293 .235 .305 .310 .266
Anderson Hernandez 445 4.9% 15.5% .075 .277 .238 .277 .313 .256
Jeff Larish 302 9.9% 29.1% .142 .274 .204 .288 .346 .277

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp
Andrew McCutchen 673 6.7 134 -1 5.3 Ben Chapman
Neil Walker 617 5.2 108 -3 2.9 Lee Walls
Pedro Alvarez 610 5.0 109 -5 2.7 Mike Pagliarulo
Starling Marte 578 4.9 102 3 2.6 Adam Jones
Russell Martin 466 4.4 94 -1 2.3 Al Lopez
Clint Barmes 475 3.5 77 8 1.9 Jason Wood
Chase d’Arnaud 532 3.8 75 1 1.7 Chris Basak
Alex Presley 607 4.7 100 1 1.6 Stu Pederson
Gaby Sanchez 541 4.8 101 2 1.5 Peter Zoccolillo
Tony Sanchez 395 3.4 76 3 1.3 B.J. Waszgis
Rod Barajas 328 4.1 90 -1 1.3 Jim Hegan
Garrett Jones 530 5.0 107 -4 1.2 Jermaine Dye
Jose Tabata 580 4.3 93 2 1.1 Jerome Walton
Michael McKenry 335 3.8 83 -1 1.1 Del Rice
Jordy Mercer 500 3.6 78 -1 1.0 Luis Rivera
Jared Goedert 483 4.0 84 -3 0.9 Josh Klimek
Jerry Sands 564 4.3 92 -1 0.9 Jason Botts
Josh Harrison 481 4.1 85 -3 0.8 Alberto Gonzalez
Travis Snider 497 4.5 96 -2 0.8 Travis Ishikawa
Felix Pie 325 4.5 91 2 0.8 Larry Barnes
Matt Hague 571 3.8 81 -4 0.7 Agustin Murillo
Ali Solis 297 2.9 62 3 0.7 Johnny Cuevas
Hector Luna 395 3.9 82 -4 0.5 Charlie Hayes
Clint Robinson 577 4.2 91 -1 0.5 Jose Tolentino
Darren Ford 402 3.2 69 3 0.4 Chris Roberson
Drew Sutton 339 3.5 79 -4 0.1 Bobby Scales
Jose Morales 211 3.2 71 -4 0.0 Dwight Lowry
Anderson Hernandez 445 3.0 63 -1 -0.1 Rondin Johnson
Jeff Larish 302 3.3 75 -2 -0.4 Steve Neal

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Wandy Rodriguez L 34 29 29 180.3 136 53 15 170 77 72
A.J. Burnett R 36 29 28 172.3 140 62 17 172 83 78
James McDonald R 28 28 26 150.7 130 63 17 143 74 69
Gerrit Cole R 22 23 23 133.3 110 54 11 134 65 61
Jeff Karstens R 30 25 20 121.0 79 25 15 127 60 56
Phil Irwin R 26 24 22 123.0 80 29 13 131 63 59
Vin Mazzaro R 26 33 19 129.3 85 52 11 134 66 62
Kyle McPherson R 25 26 21 116.0 85 30 15 121 60 56
Jason Grilli R 36 54 0 53.7 68 21 5 44 20 19
Jameson Taillon R 21 21 21 116.0 77 40 12 122 62 58
Mark Melancon R 28 57 0 59.7 53 17 5 55 25 23
Tony Watson L 28 68 0 59.3 57 26 6 52 26 24
Vic Black R 25 44 0 51.7 56 25 4 45 22 21
Jared Hughes R 27 68 0 75.7 50 24 7 74 34 32
Jeff Locke L 25 29 28 150.0 109 60 17 159 83 78
Charlie Morton R 29 19 19 110.3 67 40 10 124 62 58
Jeanmar Gomez R 25 29 27 156.7 86 55 16 174 89 83
Chris Leroux R 29 42 4 70.7 51 24 7 74 36 34
Mike Zagurski L 30 51 0 49.7 45 25 5 47 25 23
Chad Qualls R 34 62 0 56.3 35 15 5 61 29 27
David Bromberg R 25 26 14 91.0 58 45 9 98 54 50
Doug Slaten L 33 45 0 41.3 27 18 4 44 22 21
Justin Wilson L 25 32 23 121.0 92 80 14 123 74 69
Erik Cordier R 27 21 14 73.7 46 56 7 79 47 44
Hunter Strickland R 24 25 9 73.3 36 24 10 86 46 43
Zach Stewart R 26 28 20 118.7 66 39 15 138 73 68
Duke Welker R 27 43 0 50.7 35 39 4 51 31 29
Ryan Reid R 28 41 3 70.0 44 35 8 77 43 40
Bryan Morris R 26 51 0 80.7 57 26 10 89 46 43
Stolmy Pimentel R 23 24 23 105.3 60 44 13 124 67 63
Kris Harvey R 29 35 0 51.0 34 28 6 55 32 30
Andrew Oliver L 25 27 23 123.0 88 95 14 127 80 75
Brooks Brown R 28 25 18 102.0 50 59 12 117 70 65

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Wandy Rodriguez 180.3 764 17.8% 6.9% .279 3.59 3.57 94 94
A.J. Burnett 172.3 751 18.6% 8.3% .297 4.07 3.99 107 105
James McDonald 150.7 658 19.8% 9.6% .284 4.12 4.07 108 107
Gerrit Cole 133.3 588 18.7% 9.2% .303 4.12 3.89 108 102
Jeff Karstens 121.0 515 15.3% 4.9% .284 4.17 4.00 110 105
Phil Irwin 123.0 529 15.1% 5.5% .295 4.32 4.02 114 106
Vin Mazzaro 129.3 574 14.8% 9.1% .294 4.31 4.21 113 111
Kyle McPherson 116.0 499 17.0% 6.0% .293 4.34 4.24 114 112
Jason Grilli 53.7 226 30.1% 9.3% .302 3.19 2.89 84 76
Jameson Taillon 116.0 510 15.1% 7.8% .295 4.50 4.35 118 114
Mark Melancon 59.7 251 21.1% 6.8% .289 3.47 3.31 91 87
Tony Watson 59.3 256 22.3% 10.2% .279 3.64 3.75 96 99
Vic Black 51.7 225 24.9% 11.1% .299 3.66 3.56 96 94
Jared Hughes 75.7 325 15.4% 7.4% .280 3.81 3.97 100 104
Jeff Locke 150.0 669 16.3% 9.0% .300 4.68 4.48 123 118
Charlie Morton 110.3 495 13.5% 8.1% .307 4.73 4.26 124 112
Jeanmar Gomez 156.7 699 12.3% 7.9% .296 4.77 4.45 125 117
Chris Leroux 70.7 310 16.4% 7.7% .299 4.33 4.04 114 106
Mike Zagurski 49.7 221 20.4% 11.3% .291 4.17 4.16 110 109
Chad Qualls 56.3 245 14.3% 6.1% .295 4.31 3.70 113 97
David Bromberg 91.0 416 13.9% 10.8% .298 4.95 4.72 130 124
Doug Slaten 41.3 186 14.5% 9.7% .299 4.57 4.43 120 116
Justin Wilson 121.0 566 16.3% 14.1% .293 5.13 5.21 135 137
Erik Cordier 73.7 356 12.9% 15.7% .296 5.38 5.48 141 144
Hunter Strickland 73.3 330 10.9% 7.3% .298 5.28 5.07 139 133
Zach Stewart 118.7 533 12.4% 7.3% .302 5.16 4.74 136 125
Duke Welker 50.7 242 14.5% 16.1% .294 5.15 5.28 135 139
Ryan Reid 70.0 322 13.7% 10.9% .299 5.14 4.95 135 130
Bryan Morris 80.7 357 16.0% 7.3% .306 4.80 4.48 126 118
Stolmy Pimentel 105.3 484 12.4% 9.1% .308 5.38 4.98 141 131
Kris Harvey 51.0 236 14.4% 11.9% .297 5.29 5.06 139 133
Andrew Oliver 123.0 591 14.9% 16.1% .293 5.49 5.63 144 148
Brooks Brown 102.0 482 10.4% 12.2% .297 5.74 5.56 151 146

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp
Wandy Rodriguez 180.3 6.79 2.65 0.75 103 2.7 Kenny Rogers
A.J. Burnett 172.3 7.31 3.24 0.89 91 1.5 Kevin Gross
James McDonald 150.7 7.76 3.76 1.02 90 1.2 Charlie Puleo
Gerrit Cole 133.3 7.43 3.65 0.74 90 1.1 Ken Hill
Jeff Karstens 121.0 5.88 1.86 1.12 89 0.9 Matt Ginter
Phil Irwin 123.0 5.85 2.12 0.95 86 0.7 Dave Telgheder
Vin Mazzaro 129.3 5.92 3.62 0.77 86 0.6 Jim Acker
Kyle McPherson 116.0 6.59 2.33 1.16 85 0.6 John Dettmer
Jason Grilli 53.7 11.40 3.52 0.84 116 0.6 Rudy Seanez
Jameson Taillon 116.0 5.97 3.10 0.93 82 0.4 Kevin Brown
Mark Melancon 59.7 7.99 2.56 0.75 107 0.4 Mark Huismann
Tony Watson 59.3 8.65 3.95 0.91 101 0.3 Armando Almanza
Vic Black 51.7 9.75 4.35 0.70 101 0.2 Brian Bruney
Jared Hughes 75.7 5.94 2.85 0.83 97 0.2 Brian Wolfe
Jeff Locke 150.0 6.54 3.60 1.02 79 0.2 Dan Serafini
Charlie Morton 110.3 5.47 3.26 0.82 78 0.1 Chris Beasley
Jeanmar Gomez 156.7 4.94 3.16 0.92 77 0.0 Brian Moehler
Chris Leroux 70.7 6.49 3.06 0.89 85 0.0 Rick Heiserman
Mike Zagurski 49.7 8.15 4.53 0.91 89 -0.1 Kevin Tolar
Chad Qualls 56.3 5.60 2.40 0.80 86 -0.2 Jose Bautista
David Bromberg 91.0 5.74 4.45 0.89 75 -0.3 Danny Kolb
Doug Slaten 41.3 5.88 3.92 0.87 81 -0.3 Mike Venafro
Justin Wilson 121.0 6.84 5.95 1.04 72 -0.6 Dennis Gray
Erik Cordier 73.7 5.62 6.84 0.85 69 -0.6 Jesse Jefferson
Hunter Strickland 73.3 4.42 2.95 1.23 70 -0.6 Brian Wolfe
Zach Stewart 118.7 5.00 2.96 1.14 72 -0.6 Scott Barber
Duke Welker 50.7 6.21 6.92 0.71 72 -0.7 Johnny Humphries
Ryan Reid 70.0 5.66 4.50 1.03 72 -0.7 Marty McLeary
Bryan Morris 80.7 6.36 2.90 1.12 77 -0.7 Ron Rightnowar
Stolmy Pimentel 105.3 5.13 3.76 1.11 69 -0.8 Matt Avery
Kris Harvey 51.0 6.00 4.94 1.06 70 -0.8 James Warden
Andrew Oliver 123.0 6.44 6.95 1.02 67 -1.1 Scotty Baker
Brooks Brown 102.0 4.41 5.21 1.06 64 -1.2 Mike Heathcott

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.





 

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

36 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
bucn22
13 years ago

Dan, thanks for the projections, I always enjoy these during January. I have two questions. When evaluating McCutchen’s 375 BABIP does ZiPS take into account the adjustments he made to his swing to better barrel up the ball last year or does it just assume it was pure luck? I think its somewhere in between and feel like 5.3 is more like a floor for him.

Also, does it have any way of knowing that Pre-2011 Charlie Morton and 2011-Present Charlie are completely different players given the 3/4 arm slot? 0.1 over 110.3 IP seems really low. It sounds like his rehab is going very well, which obviously is something ZiPS would not factor in.

0
Baltar
13 years ago
Reply to  bucn22

ZiPS is a formula. It doesn’t take subjective factors such as those you mentioned into account. Performance in recent years is given more weight than that in earlier years.

-1
Jim Lahey
13 years ago

Haha… Jeff Blauser is the comp for Pedro Alvarez. Not a great fit there! Isn’t Charlie Morton likely to be in the starting rotation?

0
Carson CistulliMember
13 years ago
Reply to  Jim Lahey

My fault. Wrong comps were published. It’s Mike Pagliarulo now, which makes more sense.

1
Andrew
13 years ago

Carson/Dan, is there a projection for Liriano out yet? Clearly not a lock that he ends up in Pittsburgh at this point, but I’m curious as to where he would slot in.

1
jda
13 years ago
Reply to  Andrew

Dan referenced it on his Twitter account a while back. I don’t remember where he put the actual projection, but it ended up being a 99 ERA+.

0
BobbyS
13 years ago
Reply to  jda

If he still signs with the Pirates:

This is his projection

0
Pumpkin
13 years ago
Reply to  jda

The Pirates would love that line, but no way do I see him putting that up.

0
Ender
13 years ago

I really can’t see why anyone would complain about those pitcher projections. A bunch of mediocre pitchers will pitch like mediocre pitchers.

1
Paul
13 years ago

Dammit! I was going to post a joke about Charlie Morton’s latest tweak, but was beaten to the punch by the first two posters.

Seriously, there is no room for complaint here with Marte drawing 2.7 WAR, not a huge number but certainly optimistic for a rookie with that patience/contact profile, even if a lot of it is tied up in the defense.

0
swiekerMember since 2016
13 years ago

It looks like the comps uploaded for the Pirates are actually the Brewers’ comps.

0
Carson CistulliMember
13 years ago
Reply to  swieker

Indeed! Fixed! Thanks!

1
Andrew
13 years ago
Reply to  Carson Cistulli

That’s a shame, I was looking forward to d’Arnaud becoming the next Tim Raines!

1
Los
13 years ago

Sign me up for Chase d’Arnaud as Tim Raines 2.0 at shortstop.

Sincerely, every pirates fan ever.

0
Los
13 years ago
Reply to  Los

Damn, fixed and now he is only Chris Basak 2.0

How quickly the tide turns on the Pirates. This is worse than the second half collapse.

3
Dan Szymborski
13 years ago

I didn’t include Liriano since the deal hit a snag, but I did paste the basic line of Liriano’s projection here.

0
Luigi Vercotti
13 years ago

That’s quite a bullpen you’ve got there. We wouldn’t want anything to… happen… to it.

1
W.k. kortas
13 years ago
Reply to  Luigi Vercotti

Mediocre bullpen options burn, colonel…

0
Dan Szymborski
13 years ago

If you follow me on Twitter, McCutchen was the motivation for my little spiel on young stars and regression.

Essentially, looking at all players under 27 with two consecutive 5-WAR seasons, despite being stars on the happy side of the aging curve, 60% failed to match their 2-year average in the 3rd year and for the older players in that group, the ones nearest 27, it hits 70%.

Even very smart people tend to overrate the future performance of young stars. As I noted to Carson, the risk is skewed to one side for an excellent player.

0
Paul
13 years ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

Are we sure that it is over-rating of young stars, or extreme variability of the fielding component? As one example, Weiters had a 5 WAR season in 2011 based in very large part on an off the charts 17 DRS. Who would expect a guy to repeat each year what that metric says is an historically great fielding season.

I’d be willing to bet a dollar that using a hitting metric only would reveal significantly more stability.

0
Dan Szymborski
13 years ago
Reply to  Paul

Depending on what you consider significantly, you may be out a buck.

Removing the defensive numbers, I get 266 players that had 5 WAR in consecutive seasons before age 27. 159 out of 266, 59.8%, fell from their 2-year average in year 3.

When I look at the older cohort, there’s a bigger difference. 129 out of 207 fell from their 2-year average in year 3, 62.3%.

If you look at years, the dropoffs are steeper recently and shallower as you go further back. We’re already making those sample sizes smaller and smaller, so I’m not going to draw any conclusion, but my hypothesis is that with a higher quality of league and players aging better, stardom is a little bit harder to maintain.

1
Paul
13 years ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

Also, is not a 70% rate of repeating a 5 WAR season a much more confident estimate than with any other group, excepting probably replacement level players?

-1
Andrew
13 years ago
Reply to  Paul

I think the issue regarding the 70% rate is that there is no real balance to the upside, aka the “skewed risk” Dan is mentioning. A 2-win player might become a 1-win player but also might become a 3-win player, whereas it’s hard to project too much improvement for a 5-win player.

0
Andrew
13 years ago
Reply to  Paul

I think the issue regarding the 70% rate is that there is no real balance to the upside, aka the “skewed risk” Dan is mentioning. A 2-win player might become a 1-win player but also might become a 3-win player, whereas it’s hard to project too much improvement for a 5-win player.

0
Baltar
13 years ago
Reply to  Paul

That rate is for “failed to match.”
No matter how clearly something is written, someone will always take the opposite meaning.

-1
gore51Member since 2020
13 years ago

For the DMB guys, will McCutchen get a corner rating and Marte get a CF rating?

I enjoy having a L-C-R of Tabata-Marte-McCutchen when I play as the Pirates.

0
Big JgkeMember since 2020
13 years ago

You won’t be so dismissive of ZIPS’ hatred when it becomes self aware and simultaneously attacks all major cities as a preemptive nuclear deterrent against humanity in 2012.

2
Baltar
13 years ago
Reply to  Big Jgke

Good joke was spoiled by wrong year, unless ZiPS is also going to reverse time.

-1
Baltar
13 years ago

Using the invalid formula of 45 wins for replacement value plus 30 from the depth chart yields 75 wins. If my memory hasn’t failed me too much yet, that was about the same as the Cubs, 14 ahead of the Astros and 5 behind the Giants.

-1
Jon D
13 years ago

What would Shaun Marcum’s projection be as a Pirate? That rotation looks pitiful and there’s no way Huntington wants to open the year with McPherson AND Locke in the rotation, so I’d expect either Liriano or Marcum as the “number 4,” depending on FL’s health.

I’m pleasantly surprised with the lineup projection – it’s a shame it looks like we’re projected to get such little production from 1B/RF with all the bodies we have to try out there: Jones, Sanchez, Robinson, Sands, Tabata, Presley, Snider all look underwhelming.

0
Dan
13 years ago

I like the Adam Jones comp for Starling Marte. Marte is most likely already a better defender and will steal more bases, while obviously Jones is the more developed hitter (who put up a 5 offensive WAR last year despite an ugly 34/126 BB/K rate).

0
epoc
13 years ago

Dan, if it’s not too much trouble, I would greatly appreciate seeing an Ivan DeJesus projection. Thanks!

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burgh_fan
13 years ago

As a Pirates fan those numbers seem pretty fair. In my own projections I’m expecting more from Alvarez and Burnett but those are the only two that really stand out to me. I mean sure there are some players who these numbers look like ceilings for (ie d’Arnaud, Presley and Martin) but overall I think they are pretty accurate.

The only other one that gives me pause is James McDonald and well that is largely because I don’t know how in the world I would even begin to attempt to project what he might do in 2013.

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Neal
13 years ago

I like the Andrew McCutchen-Bill Chapman comparison because both are/were interesting characters when you step outside baseball statistics. Though there are some differences. For instance, McCutchen likes entertaining fans with his instagram account and with Eddie Murphy impressions. Chapman liked entertaining fans by insulting Jews and African-Americans.

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DoubleDave
13 years ago

Dan could you project catcher Ramon Cabrera? He had a projection last year. Thanks in advance.

1
Nick
13 years ago

Dan, what are your linear weights and scale for wOBA?

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