2013 ZiPS Projections – San Diego Padres

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the San Diego Padres. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Giants / Mariners / Marlins / Mets / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / White Sox / Yankees.

Batters
With regard to the projections below, an entirely reasonable person might ask: “To what extent does ZiPS account for catcher Yasmani Grandal’s 50-game suspension that he was given for a performance-enhancing substance in November — in light, particularly, of how Grandal is given the second-highest WAR projection among all Padres batters?” To which question the author is compelled to answer: “Not at all, unfortunately.” In point of fact, Grandal’s suspension likely calls for his WAR projection to be approximately two-thirded — which the author promises is a verb you can use in business memos or term papers or whatever.

Of note is the very elegant right-field platoon that persists in San Diego. A ninth-round pick out of Princeton and 19th-round pick out of something called Wheaton College, Will Venable and Chris Denorfia, respectively, continue to produce at something demonstrably better than replacement-level.

Pitchers
Extreme park effects might mask it, but ZiPS suggests that there is trouble afoot within the Padres starting rotation — insofar, that is, as the most optimistic projection among their number (Cory Luebke’s, at 1.7 WAR) is still shy of what we might consider an “average” mark. Moreover, Luebke himself isn’t even expected to be ready for Opening Day after undergoing Tommy John surgery in the middle of last season.

Beyond relievers Huston Street, Luke Gregerson, and Brad Brach, there’s little among the Padres’ expected major-league pitching corps to inspire much in the way of optimism.

Bench/Prospects
If there’s little about which to be excited among the Padres’ expected major-league pitching corps, that’s not necessarily case among their entire pitching corps. Three of the Padres’ top five pitcher WAR projections belong to players who have no clear role to begin the 2013 season. Joe Wieland (Tommy John), Tim Stauffer (minor-league contract), and Andrew Cashner (thumb) are all absent from the Padres’ depth charts. Meanwhile, another triumvirate — Anthony Bass, Robbie Erlin, and Casey Kelly — have given signs that they might deserve a role in the starting rotation.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Padres, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Chase Headley	B	29	3B	618	77	146	29	2	18	80	15	4
Yasmani Grandal	B	24	C	498	59	109	22	1	12	57	0	0
Cameron Maybin	R	26	CF	577	81	128	23	7	10	50	26	6
Jedd Gyorko	R	24	3B	557	72	129	26	0	16	67	5	3
Carlos Quentin	R	30	LF	443	57	99	25	1	19	65	1	1
Will Venable	L	30	RF	486	66	107	20	7	12	53	22	5
Everth Cabrera	B	26	SS	481	59	103	19	4	2	32	36	6
Yonder Alonso	L	26	1B	590	53	139	33	2	12	63	6	2
Chris Denorfia	R	32	RF	399	53	97	19	5	7	33	11	5
Jesus Guzman	R	29	LF	462	50	109	25	2	10	63	5	3
James Darnell	R	26	3B	415	45	87	19	1	10	41	2	2
Alexi Amarista	L	24	2B	544	59	128	24	7	5	55	14	8
Nick Hundley	R	29	C	307	29	63	14	3	6	36	1	3
Logan Forsythe	R	26	2B	478	61	98	18	4	7	40	11	3
Gregorio Petit	R	28	SS	470	47	96	19	0	6	36	4	2
Jason Hagerty	B	25	C	413	45	77	19	1	7	39	1	1
Rene Rivera	R	29	C	282	25	57	14	1	5	25	0	0
Cory Spangenberg	L	22	2B	485	56	106	17	5	3	45	22	11
Jonathan Galvez	R	22	2B	491	57	104	24	3	8	51	17	6
Cody Ransom	R	37	SS	364	31	63	16	1	10	39	3	1
Rymer Liriano	R	22	RF	587	64	126	27	5	8	55	32	17
Jeremy Hermida	L	29	RF	340	33	70	14	1	8	31	2	0
Jaff Decker	L	23	RF	448	56	75	17	4	10	44	9	4
John Baker	L	32	C	172	17	35	7	1	1	11	1	0
Edinson Rincon	R	22	3B	538	56	129	28	1	9	54	1	6
Jeudy Valdez	R	24	SS	609	66	120	27	4	11	61	18	11
Kyle Blanks	R	26	1B	260	33	51	12	2	8	21	1	0
Travis Buck	L	29	RF	242	27	51	12	1	3	22	2	1
Mark Kotsay	L	37	LF	181	11	43	9	0	2	18	1	1
Matt Clark	L	26	1B	571	58	113	21	2	18	64	0	1
Sawyer Carroll	L	27	RF	523	52	101	19	6	8	51	7	5

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Chase Headley	618	10.8%	21.2%	.160	.321	.268	.350	.428	.339
Yasmani Grandal	498	12.9%	23.3%	.141	.320	.255	.353	.396	.329
Cameron Maybin	577	8.0%	21.8%	.129	.306	.246	.312	.375	.304
Jedd Gyorko	557	7.5%	22.4%	.145	.304	.253	.311	.398	.308
Carlos Quentin	443	8.4%	14.7%	.220	.265	.259	.352	.479	.357
Will Venable	486	8.2%	23.5%	.161	.304	.246	.315	.407	.313
Everth Cabrera	481	8.9%	22.5%	.077	.317	.240	.314	.317	.287
Yonder Alonso	590	9.7%	17.6%	.139	.306	.263	.336	.402	.317
Chris Denorfia	399	7.3%	14.5%	.138	.299	.267	.322	.405	.315
Jesus Guzman	462	7.6%	19.3%	.141	.307	.260	.322	.401	.311
James Darnell	415	9.6%	20.7%	.139	.280	.236	.314	.375	.302
Alexi Amarista	544	4.4%	13.8%	.105	.285	.253	.286	.358	.276
Nick Hundley	307	7.5%	24.4%	.138	.285	.227	.288	.365	.277
Logan Forsythe	478	10.5%	23.4%	.113	.302	.234	.325	.347	.300
Gregorio Petit	470	5.3%	21.7%	.086	.275	.223	.269	.309	.254
Jason Hagerty	413	9.9%	28.3%	.116	.289	.212	.299	.328	.277
Rene Rivera	282	5.7%	22.7%	.119	.271	.219	.271	.338	.267
Cory Spangenberg	485	7.6%	20.4%	.082	.304	.242	.305	.324	.278
Jonathan Galvez	491	6.5%	26.3%	.120	.305	.232	.290	.352	.282
Cody Ransom	364	9.1%	35.2%	.148	.282	.194	.273	.342	.273
Rymer Liriano	587	6.6%	26.1%	.113	.311	.235	.293	.348	.279
Jeremy Hermida	340	8.5%	27.1%	.130	.298	.229	.300	.359	.292
Jaff Decker	448	13.8%	27.0%	.146	.261	.199	.318	.345	.293
John Baker	172	9.9%	21.5%	.078	.296	.229	.310	.307	.272
Edinson Rincon	538	5.2%	19.0%	.113	.302	.256	.296	.369	.287
Jeudy Valdez	609	4.3%	27.9%	.120	.279	.212	.253	.332	.252
Kyle Blanks	260	9.2%	31.2%	.174	.301	.222	.304	.396	.305
Travis Buck	242	7.4%	20.2%	.105	.286	.234	.299	.339	.283
Mark Kotsay	181	7.2%	9.9%	.090	.279	.259	.315	.349	.286
Matt Clark	571	8.6%	30.6%	.154	.291	.221	.289	.375	.289
Sawyer Carroll	523	8.6%	26.4%	.116	.282	.214	.282	.330	.267

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Chase Headley	618	5.7	118	2	4.3	Jeff Blauser
Yasmani Grandal	498	5.1	111	0	3.2	Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Cameron Maybin	577	4.5	93	5	2.6	Marlon Byrd
Jedd Gyorko	557	4.5	98	-1	2.0	Eddie Williams
Carlos Quentin	443	6.1	132	-7	2.0	Gary Roenicke
Will Venable	486	4.9	102	2	1.8	Michael Tucker
Everth Cabrera	481	4.1	79	-2	1.7	Gary Weiss
Yonder Alonso	590	5.0	107	-2	1.5	Steve Cox
Chris Denorfia	399	4.8	104	1	1.2	Alex Ochoa
Jesus Guzman	462	4.7	103	-1	1.2	Marty Cordova
James Darnell	415	4.1	94	-2	1.1	Fritzie Connally
Alexi Amarista	544	3.7	81	1	1.0	Juan Castro
Nick Hundley	307	3.5	83	1	1.0	Jayhawk Owens
Logan Forsythe	478	4.1	90	-6	0.9	Sam Khalifa
Gregorio Petit	470	2.9	63	3	0.7	Gera Alvarez
Jason Hagerty	413	3.3	77	-5	0.7	Luke Montz
Rene Rivera	282	3.2	71	0	0.6	Tom Nieto
Cory Spangenberg	485	3.5	78	-3	0.5	Juan Bell
Jonathan Galvez	491	3.7	80	-7	0.4	Delwyn Young
Cody Ransom	364	3.2	72	-4	0.3	Mike Bordick
Rymer Liriano	587	3.6	80	2	0.3	Stan Javier
Jeremy Hermida	340	3.8	85	-1	0.3	Orsino Hill
Jaff Decker	448	3.7	87	-3	0.2	Paul Rappoli
John Baker	172	3.4	75	-3	0.2	Jamie Quirk
Edinson Rincon	538	3.7	86	-9	0.1	Aurelio Rodriguez
Jeudy Valdez	609	2.8	64	-4	0.1	Kelly Dransfeldt
Kyle Blanks	260	4.2	96	-3	0.1	Jeff Baker
Travis Buck	242	3.6	80	0	0.1	Jeff Wetherby
Mark Kotsay	181	3.9	88	-2	0.0	Brian Jordan
Matt Clark	571	3.7	86	-5	-0.3	John-Ford Griffin
Sawyer Carroll	523	3.1	72	0	-0.4	Nathan Panther

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Cory Luebke	L	28	16	16	96.0	90	30	8	83	37	35
Edinson Volquez	R	29	27	27	154.3	145	85	14	141	75	70
Joe Wieland	R	23	16	15	87.7	71	21	9	85	37	35
Tim Stauffer	R	31	19	19	110.0	74	33	10	109	50	47
Andrew Cashner	R	26	19	19	99.3	93	39	10	90	45	42
Clayton Richard	L	29	26	26	163.7	94	45	19	172	81	76
Freddy Garcia	R	36	24	18	112.7	81	35	11	110	52	49
Anthony Bass	R	25	33	18	110.3	86	43	11	105	52	49
Casey Kelly	R	23	21	21	106.0	78	35	10	109	52	49
Robbie Erlin	L	22	20	19	95.7	85	26	13	95	47	44
Luke Gregerson	R	29	72	0	66.0	64	20	6	57	25	23
Huston Street	R	29	50	0	47.3	53	13	5	37	16	15
Donn Roach	R	23	19	17	114.7	70	40	10	119	59	55
Eric Stults	L	33	21	21	116.0	69	45	12	122	61	57
Brad Boxberger	R	25	60	0	64.7	79	38	6	52	27	25
Brad Brach	R	27	74	0	72.3	76	26	8	64	31	29
Kevin Quackenbush	R	24	48	0	49.7	55	24	4	42	20	19
Joe Thatcher	L	31	48	0	28.3	33	11	2	23	11	10
Tyson Ross	R	26	29	19	108.0	78	54	9	111	58	54
Micah Owings	R	30	22	4	47.0	38	21	5	45	22	21
Nick Vincent	R	26	60	0	67.3	61	27	7	61	30	28
Dale Thayer	R	32	61	0	63.7	50	19	6	63	29	27
Miles Mikolas	R	24	60	0	68.7	52	28	6	67	32	30
Anthony Reyes	R	31	5	3	13.0	9	6	1	13	7	7
Bear Bay	R	29	24	19	124.3	64	39	15	138	71	66
Jeff Suppan	R	38	13	13	71.7	31	26	9	80	42	39
Brandon Kloess	R	28	38	0	65.3	49	35	5	65	33	31
Jason Marquis	R	34	19	19	109.7	71	38	15	121	64	60
Daniel Stange	R	27	46	0	53.7	40	29	6	53	29	27
Sean O’Sullivan	R	25	28	21	130.0	65	53	15	143	77	72
Tom Layne	L	28	46	16	109.7	68	62	12	118	66	62
Wilfredo Boscan	R	23	30	15	104.0	59	46	13	117	64	60
Kip Wells	R	36	15	13	71.7	31	49	9	82	49	46
Keyvius Sampson	R	22	25	24	108.3	94	79	15	107	71	66
Josh Geer	R	30	20	19	111.7	50	35	16	134	73	68
Thad Weber	R	28	26	24	143.0	79	53	22	163	92	86
Adys Portillo	R	21	25	24	99.3	79	90	13	99	68	64

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Cory Luebke	96.0	401	22.4%	7.5%	.277	3.28	3.15	91	87
Edinson Volquez	154.3	689	21.0%	12.3%	.290	4.08	4.02	113	111
Joe Wieland	87.7	369	19.2%	5.7%	.288	3.59	3.54	100	98
Tim Stauffer	110.0	472	15.7%	7.0%	.282	3.85	3.77	107	104
Andrew Cashner	99.3	427	21.8%	9.1%	.284	3.81	3.65	106	101
Clayton Richard	163.7	708	13.3%	6.4%	.280	4.18	4.19	116	116
Freddy Garcia	112.7	483	16.8%	7.2%	.280	3.91	3.77	108	104
Anthony Bass	110.3	479	18.0%	9.0%	.280	4.00	3.94	111	109
Casey Kelly	106.0	462	16.9%	7.6%	.298	4.16	3.92	115	109
Robbie Erlin	95.7	408	20.8%	6.4%	.296	4.14	4.00	115	111
Luke Gregerson	66.0	275	23.3%	7.3%	.279	3.14	3.11	87	86
Huston Street	47.3	192	27.6%	6.8%	.267	2.85	2.96	79	82
Donn Roach	114.7	503	13.9%	8.0%	.288	4.32	4.09	120	114
Eric Stults	116.0	515	13.4%	8.7%	.286	4.42	4.45	123	123
Brad Boxberger	64.7	284	27.8%	13.4%	.295	3.48	3.72	96	103
Brad Brach	72.3	307	24.8%	8.5%	.290	3.61	3.38	100	94
Kevin Quackenbush	49.7	215	25.6%	11.2%	.294	3.44	3.47	95	96
Joe Thatcher	28.3	119	27.8%	9.3%	.296	3.18	2.76	88	76
Tyson Ross	108.0	489	16.0%	11.0%	.298	4.50	4.26	125	118
Micah Owings	47.0	207	18.4%	10.1%	.286	4.02	4.30	111	119
Nick Vincent	67.3	290	21.0%	9.3%	.283	3.74	3.88	104	108
Dale Thayer	63.7	273	18.3%	7.0%	.291	3.82	3.55	106	99
Miles Mikolas	68.7	301	17.3%	9.3%	.289	3.93	4.02	109	112
Anthony Reyes	13.0	58	15.5%	10.3%	.293	4.85	4.24	134	117
Bear Bay	124.3	550	11.6%	7.1%	.289	4.78	4.65	133	129
Jeff Suppan	71.7	321	9.7%	8.1%	.282	4.90	4.90	136	136
Brandon Kloess	65.3	296	16.6%	11.8%	.296	4.27	4.25	118	118
Jason Marquis	109.7	488	14.5%	7.8%	.295	4.92	4.61	136	128
Daniel Stange	53.7	243	16.5%	11.9%	.285	4.53	4.70	126	130
Sean O’Sullivan	130.0	586	11.1%	9.0%	.287	4.98	4.84	138	134
Tom Layne	109.7	509	13.4%	12.2%	.295	5.09	5.05	141	140
Wilfredo Boscan	104.0	475	12.4%	9.7%	.297	5.19	5.00	144	139
Kip Wells	71.7	346	9.0%	14.2%	.287	5.78	5.86	160	163
Keyvius Sampson	108.3	511	18.4%	15.5%	.292	5.48	5.45	152	151
Josh Geer	111.7	504	9.9%	6.9%	.299	5.48	5.07	152	141
Thad Weber	143.0	645	12.2%	8.2%	.293	5.41	5.18	150	144
Adys Portillo	99.3	487	16.2%	18.5%	.290	5.80	6.05	161	168

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Cory Luebke	96.0	8.44	2.81	0.75	111	1.7	Pete Schourek
Edinson Volquez	154.3	8.46	4.96	0.82	90	1.3	Ted Power
Joe Wieland	87.7	7.29	2.16	0.92	102	1.2	Jose Martinez
Tim Stauffer	110.0	6.05	2.70	0.82	95	1.2	Brian Lawrence
Andrew Cashner	99.3	8.43	3.53	0.91	96	1.1	Roger Pavlik
Clayton Richard	163.7	5.17	2.47	1.04	87	1.1	Rick Honeycutt
Freddy Garcia	112.7	6.47	2.80	0.88	93	1.1	Bob Walk
Anthony Bass	110.3	7.02	3.51	0.90	91	0.9	Kevin Correia
Casey Kelly	106.0	6.62	2.97	0.85	88	0.8	Mark Knudson
Robbie Erlin	95.7	7.99	2.45	1.22	88	0.7	Rheal Cormier
Luke Gregerson	66.0	8.73	2.73	0.82	117	0.7	Dan Miceli
Huston Street	47.3	10.08	2.47	0.95	128	0.7	Trevor Hoffman
Donn Roach	114.7	5.49	3.14	0.78	85	0.6	Shawn Hill
Eric Stults	116.0	5.35	3.49	0.93	83	0.5	Darren Oliver
Brad Boxberger	64.7	10.99	5.29	0.83	105	0.4	Jeff Zaske
Brad Brach	72.3	9.46	3.24	1.00	101	0.3	Pete Ladd
Kevin Quackenbush	49.7	9.96	4.35	0.72	106	0.3	Brian Bruney
Joe Thatcher	28.3	10.49	3.50	0.64	115	0.3	George Sherrill
Tyson Ross	108.0	6.50	4.50	0.75	81	0.2	Tim Byron
Micah Owings	47.0	7.28	4.02	0.96	91	0.2	Mike Cook
Nick Vincent	67.3	8.16	3.61	0.94	98	0.2	Jim Dougherty
Dale Thayer	63.7	7.06	2.68	0.85	96	0.1	Gil Heredia
Miles Mikolas	68.7	6.81	3.67	0.79	93	0.0	Sebastian Kemp
Anthony Reyes	13.0	6.23	4.15	0.69	75	0.0	Junior Walsh
Bear Bay	124.3	4.63	2.82	1.09	77	-0.1	Clay Condrey
Jeff Suppan	71.7	3.89	3.26	1.13	75	-0.1	Scott Erickson
Brandon Kloess	65.3	6.75	4.82	0.69	86	-0.2	Mike Bumstead
Jason Marquis	109.7	5.82	3.12	1.23	74	-0.2	Jose Lima
Daniel Stange	53.7	6.70	4.86	1.01	81	-0.4	Mike Zimmerman
Sean O’Sullivan	130.0	4.50	3.67	1.04	73	-0.4	Steve Stemle
Tom Layne	109.7	5.58	5.09	0.98	72	-0.7	Randy Flores
Wilfredo Boscan	104.0	5.11	3.98	1.13	70	-0.7	Roger Doman
Kip Wells	71.7	3.89	6.15	1.13	63	-0.9	Doug Davis
Keyvius Sampson	108.3	7.81	6.57	1.25	67	-1.0	Kevin Uhrhan
Josh Geer	111.7	4.03	2.82	1.29	67	-1.0	Allen Davis
Thad Weber	143.0	4.97	3.34	1.38	68	-1.2	Kyle Middleton
Adys Portillo	99.3	7.16	8.16	1.18	63	-1.3	Ivan Montane

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.