2013 ZiPS Projections – Seattle Mariners

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Seattle Mariners. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Giants / Mets / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / White Sox.

Batters
One, choosing to wax optimistic with regard to the projections below, would note that five of the top six players by projected WAR on the Mariners are either 25 years old or younger. Dustin Ackley, Mike Zunino, Kyle Seager, Jesus Montero, and (less immediately) Brad Miller: not only might they form a young, cost-controlled nucleus around which the front office can build, but their youth suggests that improvement is not only possible, but likely.

Another, choosing to be less optimistic — perhaps because he knows that, as a resident of Seattle, summer proper is still ca. six months away and that the city will remain ensconced in a 45-degree rain cloud until then — perhaps that other one would emphasize the lack of impact talent among the club’s field players and how recent acquisitions (like Jason Bay, Raul Ibanez, Kendrys Morales, and Michael Morse) address the team’s needs, but by too little.

Pitchers
If there’s a legitimately optimistic, and also equally legitimate pessimistic, perspective one might assume with regard to the club’s batting corps, that’s less the case with the starting rotation, about which one might say “Felix Hernandez and… pray for rain… for four days.” Neither Hisashi Iwakuma nor Erasmo Ramirez are projected to be disasters, but they also don’t appear to be what one might call “anchors of the rotation.”

The bullpen — in ZiPS’ estimation, at least — is constructed similarly to the rotation, with one decidedly competent piece (in this case, Tom Wilhelmsen) followed by a number of mediocre ones. True, that assessment might be unfair to left-hander Charlie Furbush, whose projection is also somewhat promising — but that information interferes with the author’s narrative and is being ignored for that purpose.

Bench/Prospects
More than most teams we’ve considered so far, it seems, the bulk of the Seattle Mariners’ talent is at the minor-league level. Neither Zunino nor Miller nor Nick Franklin is likely to begin the season on the major-league roster. Likewise for the pitching triumvirate of Danny Hultzen, James Paxton, and Taijuan Walker. But at least some portion of those six pieces will be of some help to the team in the near future. What the ZiPS projections also remind us is how Carlos Triunfel enters just his age-23 season.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Mariners, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Dustin Ackley	L	25	2B	690	97	152	27	6	13	56	11	3
Mike Zunino	R	22	C	598	86	135	22	0	16	66	3	2
Kyle Seager	L	25	3B	663	80	160	34	2	14	75	12	7
Jesus Montero	R	23	C	597	60	145	23	1	18	70	0	1
Brendan Ryan	R	31	SS	473	52	95	18	3	3	34	11	4
Brad Miller	L	23	SS	666	87	146	27	4	9	54	16	7
Franklin Gutierrez	R	30	CF	409	48	91	17	2	8	38	11	2
Michael Saunders	L	26	CF	517	71	107	22	3	14	50	15	4
Kendrys Morales	B	30	DH	411	48	100	18	1	16	52	1	2
Nick Franklin	B	22	SS	540	63	114	21	5	8	39	11	4
Carlos Triunfel	R	23	SS	626	66	142	29	2	7	50	5	4
Casper Wells	R	28	RF	405	51	79	17	3	13	38	5	4
Leon Landry	L	23	CF	571	62	131	24	10	6	47	20	12
Justin Smoak	B	26	1B	552	57	112	20	0	18	58	1	0
Michael Morse	R	31	1B	481	53	112	19	1	17	57	1	1
Stefen Romero	R	24	2B	560	64	129	23	3	14	61	9	8
Eric Farris	R	27	2B	534	45	120	17	2	5	29	24	8
Miguel Olivo	R	34	C	387	42	81	14	1	14	41	5	5
Vinnie Catricala	R	24	3B	607	65	131	29	2	11	59	8	3
Alex Liddi	R	24	3B	581	73	118	25	3	15	62	7	5
Robert Andino	R	29	2B	480	51	100	17	1	6	31	9	4
Ronny Paulino	R	32	C	273	21	62	12	1	2	19	0	0
Munenori Kawasaki	L	32	SS	444	52	102	11	3	1	33	14	8
Jesus Sucre	R	25	C	367	34	82	13	0	3	25	1	2
Jason Bay	R	34	LF	372	40	70	10	1	10	35	8	1
Mike Carp	L	27	1B	506	58	109	21	1	16	60	3	3
Raul Ibanez	L	41	LF	435	45	95	19	2	14	50	2	0
Eric Thames	L	26	LF	564	59	119	23	5	13	50	4	3
Julio Morban	L	21	CF	429	49	88	14	3	9	36	6	4
Francisco Martinez	R	22	3B	519	56	108	16	3	4	35	17	9
Chone Figgins	B	35	LF	367	38	74	11	2	2	20	15	7
Carlos Peguero	L	26	RF	484	59	92	15	3	16	52	4	4
Mike Jacobs	L	32	1B	464	39	85	15	1	12	43	1	1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Dustin Ackley	690	9.9%	17.5%	.126	.287	.247	.322	.373	.305
Mike Zunino	598	7.7%	22.2%	.131	.302	.251	.318	.382	.301
Kyle Seager	663	6.9%	17.0%	.132	.302	.264	.319	.396	.311
Jesus Montero	597	6.2%	19.1%	.144	.299	.263	.310	.407	.305
Brendan Ryan	473	7.4%	18.6%	.078	.276	.227	.292	.305	.264
Brad Miller	666	7.8%	21.2%	.103	.298	.241	.300	.344	.284
Franklin Gutierrez	409	6.4%	19.8%	.121	.287	.243	.293	.364	.286
Michael Saunders	517	9.1%	26.3%	.150	.294	.231	.302	.381	.300
Kendrys Morales	411	6.6%	20.7%	.181	.301	.265	.319	.446	.325
Nick Franklin	540	6.7%	24.6%	.112	.301	.232	.286	.344	.274
Carlos Triunfel	626	3.5%	17.9%	.093	.289	.243	.284	.336	.270
Casper Wells	405	8.6%	29.1%	.172	.286	.219	.300	.391	.300
Leon Landry	571	3.9%	16.5%	.116	.285	.245	.280	.361	.274
Justin Smoak	552	10.9%	22.6%	.153	.271	.230	.315	.383	.305
Michael Morse	481	5.8%	25.2%	.162	.308	.253	.306	.415	.311
Stefen Romero	560	3.8%	18.4%	.135	.278	.245	.282	.380	.283
Eric Farris	534	3.9%	13.7%	.073	.273	.242	.278	.315	.261
Miguel Olivo	387	3.6%	30.2%	.158	.279	.220	.249	.378	.265
Vinnie Catricala	607	6.3%	21.4%	.119	.287	.236	.294	.355	.286
Alex Liddi	581	7.1%	31.0%	.143	.303	.223	.281	.366	.281
Robert Andino	480	7.3%	21.3%	.085	.286	.230	.289	.315	.267
Ronny Paulino	273	5.5%	17.2%	.078	.287	.242	.282	.320	.261
Munenori Kawasaki	444	4.3%	14.9%	.048	.292	.248	.285	.296	.252
Jesus Sucre	367	3.0%	15.3%	.063	.271	.234	.261	.297	.241
Jason Bay	372	11.0%	26.9%	.130	.274	.215	.304	.345	.289
Mike Carp	506	7.7%	23.7%	.155	.286	.239	.304	.394	.304
Raul Ibanez	435	6.7%	18.2%	.162	.261	.238	.292	.400	.296
Eric Thames	564	6.9%	26.6%	.141	.300	.233	.295	.374	.290
Julio Morban	429	4.7%	30.5%	.118	.300	.220	.259	.338	.256
Francisco Martinez	519	5.4%	25.6%	.070	.299	.224	.268	.294	.247
Chone Figgins	367	9.5%	18.0%	.065	.281	.231	.306	.296	.268
Carlos Peguero	484	6.4%	40.5%	.156	.325	.207	.269	.363	.273
Mike Jacobs	464	8.4%	30.0%	.126	.266	.202	.267	.328	.259

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Dustin Ackley	690	4.4	98	6	3.4	Dick McAuliffe
Mike Zunino	598	4.4	99	2	3.3	Todd Zeile
Kyle Seager	663	4.6	103	-1	2.7	Buddy Bell
Jesus Montero	597	4.6	103	-8	2.5	Joe Torre
Brendan Ryan	473	3.2	71	11	2.0	Brian Harris
Brad Miller	666	3.7	84	-4	1.7	Ron Wotus
Franklin Gutierrez	409	4.0	86	6	1.7	Darnell McDonald
Michael Saunders	517	4.2	94	-4	1.4	Scott Lydy
Kendrys Morales	411	5.1	115	0	1.3	Xavier Nady
Nick Franklin	540	3.5	79	-3	1.2	Alex Gonzalez
Carlos Triunfel	626	3.3	76	-2	1.2	Aurelio Rodriguez
Casper Wells	405	4.0	95	5	1.1	Jason Cooper
Leon Landry	571	3.5	81	3	1.1	Tyler Colvin
Justin Smoak	552	4.3	98	0	1.0	Jim Bonnici
Michael Morse	481	4.6	103	-2	0.9	Xavier Nady
Stefen Romero	560	3.7	87	-4	0.9	German Duran
Eric Farris	534	3.3	69	1	0.8	Mark Sheehy
Miguel Olivo	387	3.1	76	-1	0.7	Jim Hegan
Vinnie Catricala	607	3.7	84	-8	0.7	Mark Lewis
Alex Liddi	581	3.5	83	-5	0.7	Delwyn Young
Robert Andino	480	3.2	73	-1	0.5	Edwin Maysonet
Ronny Paulino	273	3.2	72	-2	0.5	Chris Heintz
Munenori Kawasaki	444	3.0	67	-1	0.4	Rey Sanchez
Jesus Sucre	367	2.6	59	0	0.3	Moses Zucker
Jason Bay	372	3.8	85	-2	0.3	Jon Nunnally
Mike Carp	506	4.2	98	-5	0.3	Danny Lewis
Raul Ibanez	435	4.2	95	-8	0.1	Jim Bottomley
Eric Thames	564	3.8	89	-6	0.0	LaVel Freeman
Julio Morban	429	3.0	69	-2	-0.1	Kevin Wiggins
Francisco Martinez	519	2.7	61	-1	-0.2	Danny Ainge
Chone Figgins	367	3.2	73	0	-0.2	Mark McLemore
Carlos Peguero	484	3.2	78	-2	-0.3	Ralph Bryant
Mike Jacobs	464	2.9	69	-2	-0.8	Jody Davis

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Felix Hernandez	R	27	32	32	228.3	216	58	16	201	82	77
Hisashi Iwakuma	R	32	24	18	128.3	101	33	16	127	59	55
Erasmo Ramirez	R	23	29	24	144.3	92	38	15	148	72	67
Tom Wilhelmsen	R	29	71	0	75.0	83	29	6	60	27	25
Charlie Furbush	L	27	56	0	55.0	61	21	5	43	20	19
Danny Hultzen	L	23	26	26	116.0	110	83	9	105	61	57
Kevin Millwood	R	38	22	22	125.7	80	44	15	133	68	64
James Paxton	L	24	22	22	101.7	102	65	11	98	56	52
Shawn Kelley	R	29	42	0	44.3	43	17	5	40	19	18
Blake Beavan	R	24	31	31	184.3	83	37	24	206	103	96
Josh Kinney	R	34	56	0	61.3	50	25	5	57	28	26
Jeremy Bonderman	R	30	27	26	159.0	110	58	21	161	89	83
Brandon Maurer	R	22	22	21	106.0	68	53	8	108	60	56
George Sherrill	L	36	28	0	19.0	19	8	2	18	10	9
Danny Farquhar	R	26	52	0	67.7	54	34	6	63	33	31
Lucas Luetge	L	26	54	0	58.3	46	27	5	58	30	28
Taijuan Walker	R	20	20	20	116.0	91	63	13	119	67	63
Bobby LaFromboise	L	27	48	0	60.0	42	29	5	59	31	29
David Pauley	R	30	45	3	71.3	40	27	8	78	40	37
Stephen Pryor	R	23	51	0	54.7	56	39	7	47	30	28
Carter Capps	R	22	58	0	74.7	78	29	11	72	40	37
Anthony Fernandez	L	23	26	26	145.7	85	57	19	158	87	81
Oliver Perez	L	31	53	0	55.7	48	35	6	53	31	29
Brian Moran	L	24	48	0	63.3	53	26	9	63	35	33
Hector Noesi	R	26	31	21	133.3	89	51	19	142	80	75
Logan Bawcom	R	24	53	0	59.0	54	43	7	56	34	32
Brian Sweeney	R	39	23	7	66.3	35	25	11	75	44	41
Andrew Carraway	R	26	26	24	131.3	68	43	19	151	83	78
Chance Ruffin	R	24	54	0	68.0	50	42	8	69	42	39
D.J. Mitchell	R	26	26	22	131.0	72	73	16	145	85	79
Yoervis Medina	R	24	37	10	87.0	55	53	14	97	61	57

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Felix Hernandez	228.3	944	22.9%	6.1%	.287	3.04	2.99	79	78
Hisashi Iwakuma	128.3	545	18.5%	6.1%	.285	3.86	4.03	100	105
Erasmo Ramirez	144.3	619	14.9%	6.1%	.285	4.18	4.11	109	107
Tom Wilhelmsen	75.0	314	26.4%	9.2%	.278	3.00	3.04	78	79
Charlie Furbush	55.0	229	26.6%	9.2%	.273	3.11	3.15	81	82
Danny Hultzen	116.0	536	20.5%	15.5%	.294	4.42	4.56	115	119
Kevin Millwood	125.7	554	14.4%	7.9%	.286	4.58	4.45	119	116
James Paxton	101.7	468	21.8%	13.9%	.307	4.60	4.62	120	120
Shawn Kelley	44.3	190	22.6%	9.0%	.282	3.65	3.57	95	93
Blake Beavan	184.3	796	10.4%	4.6%	.284	4.69	4.65	122	121
Josh Kinney	61.3	266	18.8%	9.4%	.286	3.82	3.85	99	100
Jeremy Bonderman	159.0	696	15.8%	8.3%	.281	4.70	4.67	122	122
Brandon Maurer	106.0	479	14.2%	11.1%	.292	4.75	4.52	124	118
George Sherrill	19.0	83	22.9%	9.6%	.296	4.26	3.57	111	93
Danny Farquhar	67.7	300	18.0%	11.3%	.282	4.12	4.29	107	112
Lucas Luetge	58.3	260	17.7%	10.4%	.296	4.32	3.97	112	103
Taijuan Walker	116.0	530	17.2%	11.9%	.299	4.89	4.85	127	126
Bobby LaFromboise	60.0	268	15.7%	10.8%	.287	4.35	4.33	113	113
David Pauley	71.3	319	12.5%	8.5%	.294	4.67	4.74	121	123
Stephen Pryor	54.7	250	22.4%	15.6%	.274	4.61	4.90	120	128
Carter Capps	74.7	325	24.0%	8.9%	.299	4.46	4.21	116	109
Anthony Fernandez	145.7	652	13.0%	8.7%	.289	5.00	5.00	130	130
Oliver Perez	55.7	255	18.8%	13.7%	.286	4.69	4.66	122	121
Brian Moran	63.3	279	19.0%	9.3%	.289	4.69	4.60	122	120
Hector Noesi	133.3	593	15.0%	8.6%	.287	5.06	4.85	132	126
Logan Bawcom	59.0	276	19.6%	15.6%	.292	4.88	5.20	127	135
Brian Sweeney	66.3	299	11.7%	8.4%	.286	5.56	5.51	145	143
Andrew Carraway	131.3	588	11.6%	7.3%	.294	5.35	5.11	139	133
Chance Ruffin	68.0	315	15.9%	13.3%	.289	5.16	5.18	134	135
D.J. Mitchell	131.0	611	11.8%	11.9%	.292	5.43	5.42	141	141
Yoervis Medina	87.0	411	13.4%	12.9%	.293	5.90	5.89	153	153

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Felix Hernandez	228.3	8.52	2.29	0.63	121	4.8	Greg Maddux
Hisashi Iwakuma	128.3	7.08	2.31	1.12	95	1.3	Doyle Alexander
Erasmo Ramirez	144.3	5.74	2.37	0.94	88	1.0	Tim Dillard
Tom Wilhelmsen	75.0	9.96	3.48	0.72	122	0.9	Joaquin Benoit
Charlie Furbush	55.0	9.98	3.44	0.82	118	0.6	Mike Gonzalez
Danny Hultzen	116.0	8.53	6.44	0.70	83	0.5	Neal Cotts
Kevin Millwood	125.7	5.73	3.15	1.07	80	0.3	Rick Sutcliffe
James Paxton	101.7	9.03	5.75	0.97	80	0.2	Randy Johnson
Shawn Kelley	44.3	8.74	3.45	1.02	100	0.2	Steve Andrade
Blake Beavan	184.3	4.05	1.81	1.17	78	0.2	Josh Towers
Josh Kinney	61.3	7.34	3.67	0.73	96	0.1	Heathcliff Slocumb
Jeremy Bonderman	159.0	6.23	3.28	1.19	78	0.1	Al Nipper
Brandon Maurer	106.0	5.77	4.50	0.68	77	0.0	Rick Berg
George Sherrill	19.0	9.00	3.79	0.95	86	-0.1	Paul Gibson
Danny Farquhar	67.7	7.18	4.52	0.80	89	-0.1	Beiker Graterol
Lucas Luetge	58.3	7.10	4.17	0.77	85	-0.2	Jake Benz
Taijuan Walker	116.0	7.06	4.89	1.01	75	-0.2	Andy Ashby
Bobby LaFromboise	60.0	6.30	4.35	0.75	84	-0.3	Pete Cappadona
David Pauley	71.3	5.05	3.41	1.01	78	-0.4	Bryan Corey
Stephen Pryor	54.7	9.21	6.42	1.15	79	-0.4	Lariel Gonzalez
Carter Capps	74.7	9.40	3.49	1.33	82	-0.4	Tom Waddell
Anthony Fernandez	145.7	5.25	3.52	1.17	73	-0.4	Larry Casian
Oliver Perez	55.7	7.76	5.66	0.97	78	-0.5	Kevin Tolar
Brian Moran	63.3	7.54	3.70	1.28	78	-0.5	Randy Harvey
Hector Noesi	133.3	6.01	3.44	1.28	72	-0.6	Rick Heiserman
Logan Bawcom	59.0	8.24	6.56	1.07	75	-0.6	Joe Valentine
Brian Sweeney	66.3	4.75	3.39	1.49	66	-0.8	Michael Riley
Andrew Carraway	131.3	4.66	2.95	1.30	68	-1.0	Andy Ghelfi
Chance Ruffin	68.0	6.62	5.56	1.06	71	-1.0	Mark Wooden
D.J. Mitchell	131.0	4.95	5.02	1.10	67	-1.1	Carlos Paredes
Yoervis Medina	87.0	5.69	5.48	1.45	62	-1.5	Andy Cavazos

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.