2013 ZiPS Projections – Seattle Mariners

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Seattle Mariners. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Giants / Mets / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / White Sox.

Batters
One, choosing to wax optimistic with regard to the projections below, would note that five of the top six players by projected WAR on the Mariners are either 25 years old or younger. Dustin Ackley, Mike Zunino, Kyle Seager, Jesus Montero, and (less immediately) Brad Miller: not only might they form a young, cost-controlled nucleus around which the front office can build, but their youth suggests that improvement is not only possible, but likely.

Another, choosing to be less optimistic — perhaps because he knows that, as a resident of Seattle, summer proper is still ca. six months away and that the city will remain ensconced in a 45-degree rain cloud until then — perhaps that other one would emphasize the lack of impact talent among the club’s field players and how recent acquisitions (like Jason Bay, Raul Ibanez, Kendrys Morales, and Michael Morse) address the team’s needs, but by too little.

Pitchers
If there’s a legitimately optimistic, and also equally legitimate pessimistic, perspective one might assume with regard to the club’s batting corps, that’s less the case with the starting rotation, about which one might say “Felix Hernandez and… pray for rain… for four days.” Neither Hisashi Iwakuma nor Erasmo Ramirez are projected to be disasters, but they also don’t appear to be what one might call “anchors of the rotation.”

The bullpen — in ZiPS’ estimation, at least — is constructed similarly to the rotation, with one decidedly competent piece (in this case, Tom Wilhelmsen) followed by a number of mediocre ones. True, that assessment might be unfair to left-hander Charlie Furbush, whose projection is also somewhat promising — but that information interferes with the author’s narrative and is being ignored for that purpose.

Bench/Prospects
More than most teams we’ve considered so far, it seems, the bulk of the Seattle Mariners’ talent is at the minor-league level. Neither Zunino nor Miller nor Nick Franklin is likely to begin the season on the major-league roster. Likewise for the pitching triumvirate of Danny Hultzen, James Paxton, and Taijuan Walker. But at least some portion of those six pieces will be of some help to the team in the near future. What the ZiPS projections also remind us is how Carlos Triunfel enters just his age-23 season.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Mariners, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

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Batters, Rates and Averages

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Batters, Assorted Other

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Pitchers, Counting Stats

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Pitchers, Rates and Averages

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Pitchers, Assorted Other

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.