2013 ZiPS Projections – Tampa Bay Rays

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Giants / Mets / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / White Sox.

Batters
In a study from February of 2012, Matt Swartz found that designated hitters, left fielders, and first basemen — in that order — were, on average, (over)paid the most dollars per win on the open market. It’s fitting, perhaps, in light of these findings, that the Tampa Bay — an organization that has distinguished itself for its efficient spending — would be weakest at these positions. The players mostly likely to fill those roles for Tampa Bay are Luke Scott, Sam Fuld, Shelley Duncan, and James Loney. Combined, they’re unlikely to make much more than $5 million this season, depending on the precise terms of Scott’s recent deal.

Regardless of the degree to which it informs our understanding of Evan Longoria’s actual future, his top comparable, Jim Ray Hart, is of some interest — if for no other reason than the reader has likely (and the author has definitely) never heard of him. Hart, however, was among the league’s best players for a four-year stretch in the 1960s, as this totally embiggenable WAR grid reveals:

Lest the reader find himself concerned about Hart’s whereabouts today, rest easy: per Wikipedia, he “retired in 2006 to a life of leisure and good health.”

Pitchers
The Rays finished second in the majors last season in what we’ve taken to calling Ball-in-Play Wins (BIP-Wins) — which is to say, wins gained by the suppression of park-adjusted opponent BABIP. So, while the pitching staff posted a 23.2 WAR collectively, they actually produced something closer to 30 wins based on runs allowed (i.e. RA9-Wins, a figure that also consider runs/wins from stranded runners).

Ought one attribute the runs/wins saved to the pitchers themselves — like Jeremy Hellickson, for example, who posted a 1.0 WAR but 4.2 RA9-Wins in 2012 — or to the skills of the individual defenders or to the frequent shifts employed by the Tampa Bay defense as a whole? Whatever the answer to the question, it calls attention to the impediment that remain to our understanding of run prevention and who, precisely, is responsible for it.

Bench/Prospects
ZiPS, which is generally conservative, nevertheless appears optimistic about recent acquisition Wil Myers‘ power. The former Royals prospect, who hit 37 home runs in 2012 between Double- and Triple-A, is projected to hit more homers than any other Ray in 2013 (albeit at a lower rate than Longoria). Shortstop prospect Hak-Ju Lee, meanwhile, is regarded by ZiPS as something close to an average major-league player.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Rays, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Evan Longoria	R	27	3B	538	72	122	27	2	24	85	7	3
Ben Zobrist	B	32	2B	635	84	140	35	5	18	77	16	6
Desmond Jennings	R	26	CF	637	94	143	25	7	13	52	34	5
Yunel Escobar	R	30	SS	590	61	135	20	1	9	47	4	2
Wil Myers	R	22	RF	616	75	141	21	4	26	74	5	3
Matt Joyce	L	28	RF	494	61	105	24	3	17	64	8	4
Sean Rodriguez	R	28	2B	406	48	81	18	2	10	42	9	3
Hak-Ju Lee	L	22	SS	602	72	133	15	7	4	34	28	13
Robinson Chirinos	R	29	C	382	42	82	16	1	8	37	1	3
Rich Thompson	L	34	CF	464	55	100	15	5	3	29	27	5
Ryan Roberts	R	32	3B	486	53	98	19	1	10	46	12	7
Stephen Vogt	L	28	C	445	42	101	21	3	7	44	2	1
James Loney	L	29	1B	555	54	132	27	1	9	64	4	3
Reid Brignac	L	27	SS	408	40	83	14	2	7	37	3	3
Brandon Guyer	R	27	RF	372	50	86	18	3	8	36	12	3
Cole Figueroa	L	26	3B	529	60	117	19	3	3	46	8	5
Sam Fuld	L	31	LF	300	40	65	11	4	2	18	13	6
Jose Molina	R	38	C	222	21	47	9	0	5	22	2	1
Luke Scott	L	35	1B	362	41	78	18	1	15	50	2	0
Jose Lobaton	B	28	C	277	21	54	12	0	4	27	0	0
Tim Beckham	R	23	SS	477	57	103	17	2	7	40	9	2
Chris Gimenez	R	30	C	303	32	65	11	0	6	29	0	2
Elliot Johnson	B	29	SS	332	35	71	11	2	6	31	15	6
Brandon Allen	L	27	RF	460	47	83	17	2	14	50	6	2
Shawn O’Malley	B	25	2B	396	43	76	7	4	1	20	16	7
Mike Fontenot	L	33	2B	244	22	54	9	1	3	18	2	2
Shelley Duncan	R	33	LF	345	37	68	14	0	12	45	1	1
Mikie Mahtook	R	23	RF	569	57	127	20	5	7	47	16	9
Brooks Conrad	B	33	3B	164	17	29	7	0	5	21	2	0
Jason Bourgeois	R	31	RF	356	40	81	9	2	2	23	19	8
Jesus Feliciano	L	34	CF	470	41	108	14	1	1	29	6	4
Leslie Anderson	L	31	LF	483	43	114	17	0	8	42	1	3
Nick Weglarz	L	25	LF	388	41	63	15	0	10	35	2	2
Jeff Salazar	L	32	RF	339	33	62	9	1	6	27	10	2
Hideki Matsui	L	39	LF	291	28	61	12	0	6	30	0	0

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Evan Longoria	538	11.7%	19.7%	.223	.289	.263	.355	.486	.353
Ben Zobrist	635	13.1%	17.3%	.183	.292	.260	.358	.443	.345
Desmond Jennings	637	8.6%	19.0%	.138	.299	.252	.326	.390	.319
Yunel Escobar	590	8.0%	11.7%	.092	.278	.256	.321	.348	.294
Wil Myers	616	8.1%	27.9%	.191	.316	.253	.317	.444	.327
Matt Joyce	494	11.9%	22.3%	.191	.290	.246	.342	.437	.334
Sean Rodriguez	406	7.9%	24.4%	.146	.284	.227	.305	.373	.296
Hak-Ju Lee	602	6.8%	21.9%	.074	.309	.241	.298	.315	.272
Robinson Chirinos	382	7.9%	19.4%	.122	.280	.238	.309	.360	.293
Rich Thompson	464	5.2%	17.7%	.081	.286	.236	.291	.317	.273
Ryan Roberts	486	9.9%	20.4%	.119	.272	.228	.306	.347	.286
Stephen Vogt	445	5.6%	17.3%	.116	.282	.245	.288	.361	.280
James Loney	555	7.2%	12.4%	.110	.283	.259	.312	.369	.289
Reid Brignac	408	6.6%	22.5%	.104	.274	.222	.277	.326	.262
Brandon Guyer	372	5.1%	18.8%	.141	.294	.253	.302	.394	.302
Cole Figueroa	529	8.1%	11.3%	.072	.275	.247	.313	.319	.279
Sam Fuld	300	9.3%	12.7%	.093	.274	.242	.314	.335	.288
Jose Molina	222	7.2%	23.0%	.118	.286	.232	.291	.350	.282
Luke Scott	362	8.6%	22.4%	.200	.272	.241	.309	.441	.320
Jose Lobaton	277	10.5%	24.9%	.099	.291	.222	.305	.321	.278
Tim Beckham	477	5.9%	23.1%	.095	.295	.235	.283	.330	.270
Chris Gimenez	303	8.3%	22.4%	.106	.292	.237	.301	.343	.281
Elliot Johnson	332	6.6%	23.8%	.111	.301	.237	.292	.348	.279
Brandon Allen	460	10.4%	31.3%	.156	.276	.205	.293	.361	.287
Shawn O’Malley	396	7.3%	22.7%	.051	.284	.215	.285	.266	.249
Mike Fontenot	244	7.4%	19.7%	.091	.297	.244	.305	.335	.276
Shelley Duncan	345	9.9%	23.5%	.164	.260	.223	.304	.387	.302
Mikie Mahtook	569	5.1%	22.7%	.097	.304	.242	.290	.339	.276
Brooks Conrad	164	8.5%	32.3%	.150	.270	.199	.272	.349	.270
Jason Bourgeois	356	5.3%	11.8%	.057	.274	.244	.289	.301	.262
Jesus Feliciano	470	4.0%	10.6%	.043	.272	.245	.281	.288	.250
Leslie Anderson	483	3.7%	14.1%	.090	.277	.250	.286	.340	.270
Nick Weglarz	388	11.3%	35.8%	.133	.279	.188	.289	.321	.273
Jeff Salazar	339	8.0%	23.3%	.095	.252	.203	.271	.298	.257
Hideki Matsui	291	7.9%	17.5%	.114	.261	.231	.289	.345	.275

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Evan Longoria	538	6.4	135	8	5.2	Jim Ray Hart
Ben Zobrist	635	5.9	125	5	4.9	Ray Durham
Desmond Jennings	637	5.1	102	2	3.4	Mike Devereaux
Yunel Escobar	590	4.1	90	4	2.5	Craig Wilson
Wil Myers	616	5.1	112	0	2.3	Danny Tartabull
Matt Joyce	494	5.4	118	-1	2.2	Leon Durham
Sean Rodriguez	406	4.1	91	5	1.8	Chase Lambin
Hak-Ju Lee	602	3.4	74	5	1.7	Royce Clayton
Robinson Chirinos	382	3.8	89	2	1.6	Chad Moeller
Rich Thompson	464	3.7	72	4	1.3	Vince Coleman
Ryan Roberts	486	3.7	85	1	1.2	Scott Brosius
Stephen Vogt	445	3.7	82	-5	0.9	Andy Stewart
James Loney	555	4.2	92	4	0.9	John Mabry
Reid Brignac	408	3.1	70	3	0.9	Keith Johns
Brandon Guyer	372	4.5	95	0	0.8	Alexis Rios
Cole Figueroa	529	3.5	80	-1	0.8	Russ Adams
Sam Fuld	300	3.8	84	6	0.8	Rich Thompson
Jose Molina	222	3.6	80	1	0.8	Paul Richards
Luke Scott	362	4.9	109	-4	0.8	Chris Richard
Jose Lobaton	277	3.4	78	-1	0.7	Alan Ashby
Tim Beckham	477	3.4	73	-4	0.7	Ross Jones
Chris Gimenez	303	3.5	82	-2	0.7	Juan Espino
Elliot Johnson	332	3.7	80	-4	0.5	Chris Woodward
Brandon Allen	460	3.7	84	0	0.3	Kevin Burns
Shawn O’Malley	396	2.7	57	4	0.3	Tommy Hinzo
Mike Fontenot	244	3.6	81	-2	0.3	Marlon Anderson
Shelley Duncan	345	4.1	94	-3	0.2	Carmelo Martinez
Mikie Mahtook	569	3.5	77	1	-0.1	George Hinshaw
Brooks Conrad	164	3.3	74	-3	-0.1	Dave McKay
Jason Bourgeois	356	3.2	68	2	-0.1	Jim Buccheri
Jesus Feliciano	470	2.8	62	0	-0.3	Joe Orsulak
Leslie Anderson	483	3.4	76	0	-0.3	Terry Francona
Nick Weglarz	388	3.0	73	-2	-0.4	John Jensen
Jeff Salazar	339	2.9	61	0	-0.4	Kevin Koslofski
Hideki Matsui	291	3.5	78	-6	-0.6	Brian Jordan

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
David Price	L	27	31	31	207.7	201	63	18	176	75	70
Matt Moore	L	24	31	30	170.7	173	71	18	148	73	68
Jeremy Hellickson	R	26	29	28	166.7	120	59	20	155	75	70
Alex Cobb	R	25	27	27	149.3	110	54	15	151	74	69
Jeff Niemann	R	30	20	19	104.3	81	33	13	104	52	49
Jake McGee	L	26	67	0	57.3	64	16	6	47	20	19
Fernando Rodney	R	36	58	0	53.3	49	21	4	45	19	18
Joel Peralta	R	37	62	0	58.3	61	16	7	48	22	21
Chris Archer	R	24	28	27	135.3	107	80	14	131	75	70
Fauxto Carmona	R	32	18	18	111.0	63	34	15	115	61	57
Kyle Farnsworth	R	37	46	0	41.3	38	13	4	36	16	15
Jake Odorizzi	R	23	26	26	136.3	97	62	19	137	78	73
Felipe Rivero	L	21	23	18	92.7	54	36	11	100	52	49
Jamey Wright	R	38	54	0	59.0	41	25	4	58	28	26
Juan Carlos Oviedo	R	31	37	0	34.7	30	11	4	32	16	15
Brandon Gomes	R	28	56	0	66.0	59	30	7	62	32	30
Josh Lueke	R	28	49	0	68.7	50	26	7	70	35	33
Juan Sandoval	R	32	61	0	63.3	44	31	6	63	33	31
J.D. Martin	R	30	24	16	104.7	55	22	18	120	63	59
Will Inman	R	26	45	0	52.0	48	37	6	47	29	27
Frank De Los Santos	L	25	46	4	79.3	38	35	8	87	46	43
Alex Colome	R	24	22	22	105.7	68	72	12	110	66	62
Cesar Ramos	L	29	47	7	74.3	48	34	11	79	45	42
Alex Torres	L	25	29	23	109.0	90	91	11	108	68	64
Dane de la Rosa	R	30	55	0	65.0	54	45	7	63	39	36
Kirby Yates	R	26	52	0	60.7	57	55	7	57	39	36
Adam Liberatore	L	26	39	0	63.0	32	36	7	70	41	38
Marquis Fleming	R	26	46	0	70.3	59	54	10	68	45	42
Enny Romero	L	22	25	24	105.7	74	93	14	107	73	68
Mike Montgomery	L	23	26	26	141.3	85	75	23	152	94	88
Matt Buschmann	R	29	30	19	120.0	68	62	19	136	82	77
Lance Pendleton	R	29	27	19	107.3	61	64	19	120	77	72

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
David Price	207.7	862	23.3%	7.3%	.275	3.03	3.24	78	83
Matt Moore	170.7	731	23.7%	9.7%	.281	3.59	3.76	92	97
Jeremy Hellickson	166.7	714	16.8%	8.3%	.265	3.78	4.28	97	110
Alex Cobb	149.3	653	16.8%	8.3%	.293	4.16	4.15	107	107
Jeff Niemann	104.3	450	18.0%	7.3%	.285	4.23	4.17	109	107
Jake McGee	57.3	235	27.2%	6.8%	.277	2.98	2.96	77	76
Fernando Rodney	53.3	226	21.7%	9.3%	.275	3.04	3.53	78	91
Joel Peralta	58.3	239	25.5%	6.7%	.266	3.24	3.28	83	85
Chris Archer	135.3	617	17.3%	13.0%	.288	4.66	4.83	120	124
Fauxto Carmona	111.0	482	13.1%	7.1%	.275	4.62	4.80	119	123
Kyle Farnsworth	41.3	173	22.0%	7.5%	.276	3.27	3.53	84	91
Jake Odorizzi	136.3	608	16.0%	10.2%	.280	4.82	5.02	124	129
Felipe Rivero	92.7	414	13.0%	8.7%	.290	4.76	4.80	123	124
Jamey Wright	59.0	260	15.8%	9.6%	.290	3.97	3.81	102	98
Juan Carlos Oviedo	34.7	147	20.4%	7.5%	.274	3.89	3.73	100	96
Brandon Gomes	66.0	290	20.3%	10.3%	.289	4.09	4.14	105	107
Josh Lueke	68.7	302	16.6%	8.6%	.293	4.33	4.27	111	110
Juan Sandoval	63.3	284	15.5%	10.9%	.287	4.41	4.36	113	112
J.D. Martin	104.7	456	12.1%	4.8%	.287	5.07	5.05	130	130
Will Inman	52.0	240	20.0%	15.4%	.281	4.67	5.00	120	129
Frank De Los Santos	79.3	360	10.6%	9.7%	.288	4.88	4.85	126	125
Alex Colome	105.7	499	13.6%	14.4%	.288	5.28	5.53	136	142
Cesar Ramos	74.3	336	14.3%	10.1%	.286	5.09	5.18	131	133
Alex Torres	109.0	526	17.1%	17.3%	.297	5.28	5.40	136	139
Dane de la Rosa	65.0	303	17.8%	14.9%	.290	4.98	5.05	128	130
Kirby Yates	60.7	294	19.4%	18.7%	.294	5.34	5.58	137	144
Adam Liberatore	63.0	295	10.8%	12.2%	.293	5.43	5.43	140	140
Marquis Fleming	70.3	333	17.7%	16.2%	.283	5.37	5.70	138	147
Enny Romero	105.7	517	14.3%	18.0%	.283	5.79	6.28	149	162
Mike Montgomery	141.3	651	13.1%	11.5%	.280	5.60	5.77	144	149
Matt Buschmann	120.0	558	12.2%	11.1%	.292	5.78	5.72	149	147
Lance Pendleton	107.3	506	12.1%	12.7%	.285	6.04	6.19	155	159

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
David Price	207.7	8.71	2.73	0.78	127	5.1	C.C. Sabathia
Matt Moore	170.7	9.12	3.74	0.95	108	3.0	Tony Saunders
Jeremy Hellickson	166.7	6.48	3.19	1.08	102	2.5	Al Nipper
Alex Cobb	149.3	6.63	3.26	0.90	93	1.6	Aaron Harang
Jeff Niemann	104.3	6.99	2.85	1.12	91	1.0	Adam Eaton
Jake McGee	57.3	10.05	2.51	0.94	129	0.9	Dan Plesac
Fernando Rodney	53.3	8.27	3.55	0.68	127	0.8	Ricky Bottalico
Joel Peralta	58.3	9.42	2.47	1.08	119	0.8	Lee Smith
Chris Archer	135.3	7.12	5.32	0.93	83	0.6	Larry Mitchell
Fauxto Carmona	111.0	5.11	2.76	1.22	83	0.5	Walter Plinge
Kyle Farnsworth	41.3	8.28	2.83	0.87	118	0.5	Todd Worrell
Jake Odorizzi	136.3	6.40	4.09	1.25	80	0.3	Mike Morgan
Felipe Rivero	92.7	5.24	3.50	1.07	81	0.3	Rich Rundles
Jamey Wright	59.0	6.25	3.81	0.61	97	0.2	Dave Giusti
Juan Carlos Oviedo	34.7	7.78	2.85	1.04	99	0.2	Bobby Howry
Brandon Gomes	66.0	8.05	4.09	0.95	94	0.2	Johnny Ruffin
Josh Lueke	68.7	6.55	3.41	0.92	89	0.0	Jordan DeJong
Juan Sandoval	63.3	6.26	4.41	0.85	88	-0.1	Marc Wilkins
J.D. Martin	104.7	4.73	1.89	1.55	76	-0.1	Larry Shikles
Will Inman	52.0	8.31	6.40	1.04	83	-0.2	Josh Banks
Frank De Los Santos	79.3	4.31	3.97	0.91	79	-0.3	Scott Rice
Alex Colome	105.7	5.79	6.13	1.02	73	-0.3	Ben Hendrickson
Cesar Ramos	74.3	5.81	4.12	1.33	76	-0.4	Sherman Corbett
Alex Torres	109.0	7.43	7.51	0.91	73	-0.4	Chris Mobley
Dane de la Rosa	65.0	7.48	6.23	0.97	77	-0.5	Ryan Henderson
Kirby Yates	60.7	8.45	8.15	1.04	72	-0.8	Bill Bene
Adam Liberatore	63.0	4.57	5.14	1.00	71	-0.9	Brian Adams
Marquis Fleming	70.3	7.55	6.91	1.28	72	-0.9	Cliff Brantley
Enny Romero	105.7	6.30	7.92	1.19	67	-1.0	Steve Whitaker
Mike Montgomery	141.3	5.41	4.78	1.46	69	-1.0	Felix Oroz
Matt Buschmann	120.0	5.10	4.65	1.43	67	-1.2	Mike Heathcott
Lance Pendleton	107.3	5.12	5.37	1.59	64	-1.4	Michael Johnson

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.