2013 ZiPS Projections – Toronto Blue Jays

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, will be released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the maybe-AL-East-favorite Toronto Blue Jays. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Rangers.

Batters
In 2012, Jose Bautista and Brett Lawrie combined for just 217 total games played and 935 plate appearances, posting a 3.2 and 2.9 WAR, respectively. Were each to have produced at similar rates over 650 plate appearances instead (which probably isn’t a responsible thing to assume, actually, but that’s what’s happening right now), that would have been worth about another two or three wins to the Blue Jays — and likely even more, on account of how the Jays’ main replacements at right field (Moises Sierra) and third base (Adeiny Hechavarria) were worth less than replacement level. For 2013, even with just ca. 1,100 plate appearances projected between them, Bautista and Lawrie are expected to combine for about 9.0 WAR — or, roughly what they’d have produced together in a full season in 2012.

Elsewhere, early indications are that the Blue Jays will wait until spring training to name a starting second baseman. ZiPS suggests that maybe Maicer Izturis and not Emilio Bonifacio would be the right choice, although it’s not the proverbial “slam dunk.”

Pitchers
Brandon Morrow’s 2.4 WAR in 2012 was the team’s highest mark for a pitcher (by a factor of two, in fact). That same figure in 2013 would merit consideration merely for the fifth starter role, according to ZiPS, which projects offseason acquisitions R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, and Mark Buehrle to combine for something like 10 wins.

The bullpen features (deservedly, given his recent track record) an enthusiastic projection (60.1 IP, 79 ERA-, 1.2 WAR) for Casey Janssen — which is notable insofar as anyone who followed baseball in 2006 will remember Janssen as a soft-tossing starter. By way of illustrating his improvement, here’s a poorly designed graph of Janssen’s swinging-strike rates from 2006 to ’12:

Bench/Prospects
The aggressive nature of Toronto’s offseason necessarily means that their system is less impressive than it would have been otherwise, now lacking Travis D’Arnaud, Jake Marisnick, and Noah Syndergaard, among others. The very athletic Anthony Gose, despite a 2012 that saw him post a 73 wRC+, is viewed as something not unlike major-league average by ZiPS. And, at catcher, A.J. Jimenez is forecast roughly on par with J.P. Arencibia and newly acquired Josh Thole.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Blue Jays, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

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Batters, Rates and Averages

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Batters, Assorted Other

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Pitchers, Counting Stats

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Pitchers, Rates and Averages

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Pitchers, Assorted Other

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.