Ben and Sam discuss PECOTA’s projections for top draft picks from 2007 and talk about whether FIELDf/x and comparable technologies will ever pose a threat to scouts.
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A lot of analytical baseball articles today will make some sort of reference to catcher pitch-framing. References to pitch-framing will often make references to Jose Molina, and they will less often but still somewhat often make references to Livan Hernandez. References to Livan Hernandez often lead to recollections of the 1997 NLCS, and Eric Gregg’s strike zone in Game 5. Consensus is that Gregg’s zone was extremely favorable to Hernandez, and it was a big reason why the Marlins were able to get past the Braves and advance to the World Series.
Of course, that which is unusual has a tendency to become exaggerated, made extraordinary over time. Gregg’s Game 5 strike zone is today remembered as one of the worst umpiring performances ever in the game. One hyperbolic example of many:
Umpire Eric Gregg’s strike zone in this 1997 NL playoff matchup had viewers outraged. Pitches that sailed high over the heads of players were called strikes.
Episode 295
Tom Zentmeyer is the president of WhatIfSports and was integral to that site’s creation of Hardball Dynasty, an online simulation that allows one to become both GM and manager of a fictional major-league franchise.
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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 46 min play time.)
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A small a bigger story sometimes hides behind a bit of information. That bit came in this line I read a few years ago in Larry Tye’s book, Satchel:
In 1960 he [Satchel Paige] threw for the Salina [Kan.] Blue Jays ….
I had no idea. Leroy Robert “Satchel” Paige was arguable one of the best 10-or-so pitchers who played baseball. He was a Hall of Famer on the field, but he was an even better showman. What was one of the greatest players doing playing on a team in Kansas?
I’m a Kansas native. Throughout my life, I’ve had a deep connection with Salina. I lived less than an hour away from the city when I was growing up. Some of my family members still live there. Heck, I was even married there. Because of that, I needed to know what brought Paige to the middle of nowhere to play baseball one summer so long ago.
Demonstrating a commitment to modernity, baseball’s rules committee has spoken: “The fake-to-third, throw-to-first pickoff move” is now a balk. As of now, implementation is uncertain as baseball waits for the Major League Baseball Players Association to consider the rule change. But as far as MLB is concerned, you can’t do that any more.
So here’s the current rule, which is on the cutting block:
A pitcher is to step directly toward a base before throwing to that base but does not require him to throw (except to first base only) because he steps. It is possible, with runners on first and third, for the pitcher to step toward third and not throw, merely to bluff the runner back to third; then seeing the runner on first start for second, turn and step toward and throw to first base. This is legal. However, if, with runners on first and third, the pitcher, while in contact with the rubber, steps toward third and then immediately and in practically the same motion “wheels” and throws to first base, it is obviously an attempt to deceive the runner at first base, and in such a move it is practically impossible to step directly toward first base before the throw to first base, and such a move shall be called a balk. Of course, if the pitcher steps off the rubber and then makes such a move, it is not a balk.
Leafing through an old Sports Illustrated, I recently happened upon this stellar article by Mr. Albert Chen entitled “Revenge Of The Base Stealers,” in which Chen analyzed the league’s continued shift towards base-pilfering over base-trotting.
With the whimper-death of the Steroid Era, league strategies have swung towards old-school baseball. Most winning teams now employ some combination of great defense, strong base-runningitudes, and notable pitching-miraculosities. As such, wise teams have found employs for otherwise marginalized speedsters.
The net result has been an uptick in the value of a stolen base, according to linear weights:
This chart shows how the cost of a caught stealing (the red line) is trending towards zero (meaning a caught stealing is costing less — in fact, much than its .400 runs high point in 2000) while the gains from a stolen base (0.161 runs in 2012) have remained strong.
Whither belongs the blame for this change? Simply: Home runs. And where do we wander from here? In short: Deep into the heart of Speedster Kingdom.
Read the rest of this entry »
Table of Contents
Today’s edition of Daily Notes has no table of contents, it appears.
The Hitting Stats for the Hitting Coaches
The Miami Marlins named former Cardinal and Devil Ray and Mariner and Yankee Tino Martinez as their new hitting coach this offseason, shortly after the departure of Ozzie Guillen and his staff — including Guillen’s hitting coach, former major leaguer Eduardo Perez.
There’s nothing to suggest, so far as the author knows, that a player’s own personal hitting ability is a determinative factor in his ability to coach others well in that same art. That said, it’s also the case that Martinez was an above-average hitter over the course of his 16-year career.
“How, generally, have the league’s batting coaches performed as major leaguers?” the author, who constructs thoughts in full sentences, asked himself. The answer, one finds, is best presented in the form of a table, not unlike the one below.
Yu Darvish has his partner at the top of the Rangers’ rotation for the next few years. Matt Harrison and the Rangers agreed Wednesday night to a five-year, $55 million dollar contract, making the 27-year-old an official piece of the Rangers’ ever-impressive core.
However, where Darvish has the ideal profile for a hitters’ heaven like Texas — swing-and-miss stuff with every pitch, giving him the ability to keep the ball off bats, much less out of the air — Harrison’s profile is nearly the opposite. Over the past two years, the lefty has sat near or even below the starter averages in both strikeout rate and contact rate, and he isn’t an extreme groundballer either.
Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Colorado Rockies. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.
Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Royals / White Sox.
Batters
It is not surprising to find that, among Colorado’s field players, ZiPS finds two stars: Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. The former, in particular, is fantastic on a per-game basis; however, injury trouble has created a rather conservative plate-appearances projection for Tulo. The shortstop has recently reported a return to form, but remember: ZiPS doesn’t know how or why he’s been injured, just that his playing time has been deflated in the near past.
Elsewhere, like last season, third base appears to be a cause for some concern for the Rockies in 2013. Chris Nelson (0.3 WAR in 377 PA) and Jordan Pacheco (0.2 WAR in 505 PA) started 148 games there between them in 2012. Neither appears to be a starting option on a winning team. Likely second baseman Josh Rutledge, meanwhile, must be a pleasant surprise for the club. Ranked around 10th on most prospect lists entering the 2012 season, ZiPS suggests that he’s become something not unlike a major-league regular.
