Archive for January, 2013

Clutch, Strikeouts, and Willie Bloomquist

FanGraphs has its own Clutch statistic, as you probably know. If you didn’t know that before, congratulations, you’ve already learned from this article, and it’s only just beginning. Clutch is available all over this website, and it’s fun to scroll through the all-time leaderboard. At the top you find names like Tony Gwynn, Pete Rose, and Dave Parker. At the bottom, you find names like Sammy Sosa, Jim Thome, and Barry Bonds. I should note that by “all-time leaderboard” I mean “leaderboard since 1974”, but that’s a lot of time to many of us. The baseball that existed before roughly 1974ish was a very different sort of baseball. Earlier-baseball statistics are weird.

The Clutch statistic is based in win expectancy, and a high Clutch score doesn’t necessarily mean the player was awesome in clutch situations, just as a low Clutch score doesn’t necessarily mean the player sucked in clutch situations. Clutch is relative to the player himself; a high Clutch score means a player was more clutch than you would’ve expected that player to be. You get it. You’ve probably gotten it for years.

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What Was The Best Thing You Read Last Year?

This year, in addition to participating in some of the aspects of the SABR Analytics Conference, we’re helping our friends over at SABR recognize some of the best works in baseball from 2012. SABR is going to be giving out three awards at the conference, recognizing high quality work in three categories:

Contemporary Baseball Analysis: Honoring the best analysis focusing on a subject related to the modern game(s), team(s) or player(s).

Contemporary Baseball Commentary: Honoring the best commentary focusing on a subject related to the modern game(s), team(s) or player(s).

Historical Baseball Analysis/Commentary: Honoring the best original analysis or commentary focusing on a subject related to a game(s), team(s) or player(s) throughout baseball history.

Works of “Analysis” will be judged on the following criteria: thorough examination of the subject matter; originality of research; factual accuracy; significance in advancing our understanding of baseball.

Works of “Commentary” will be judged on the following criteria: distinguished writing; profound insight; factual accuracy; significance in advancing our understanding of baseball.

A work can be in any format except books, including but not limited to articles, columns, blog posts, television, film, websites, spreadsheets or databases, but it must have been first published in the preceding calendar year. No unpublished work will be considered. No work published, in part or in whole, prior to the preceding calendar year will be considered.

No work will be considered in more than one category.

For the next few weeks, we’ll be looking back at pieces we enjoyed last year, and then we’ll submit a list of works to be nominated for public voting, which will open up in a few weeks. That voting will take place here, on The Hardball Times, at Baseball Prospectus, and at SABR’s own site, with you guys eventually selecting the winners in each categories. Those awards will be handed out during the Analytics Conference in Phoenix between March 7th-9th.

I have a few pieces in my mind that I really enjoyed last year, but the web is so vast that there’s no way for us to be aware of everything that was published last year. So, we’re looking for your input as well. What was the best thing you read, watched, or listened to last year that fits into one of the three above categories? Whether it be something that was published on a team specific blog or here on FanGraphs, we’re interested in nominating the best works, and we want to help shine a light on things that may not have gotten as much attention as they deserved.

So, in the comments, leave your nominations, and we will make sure they are considered in the process. Let’s give recognition where its due, and reward those who worked hard to contribute to the community at large in 2012.


Can You Hear Me Now?: MLB and Bullpen Cell Phones

The dugout phone is a thing of the past. At the 2013 Consumer Electronics Show, MLB and T-Mobile announced a partnership that will replace dugout phones with these. ESPN’s Darren Rovell reports the dugout phones will remain in place — in case teams want to use them — but teams will have to opt in, “depending on whether they have a competing carrier.” (Like AT&T or US Cellular.) Oh, and T-Mobile’s paying the league $125 million over three years.
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Shaun Marcum’s Winter of Silence

Shaun Marcum is a pretty good Major League pitcher. He’s been in the show since 2005 and owns a 3.76 ERA and 4.25 FIP in a little over 900 career innings. That’s a 90 ERA- and 101 FIP-, respectively. Like most pitchers though, it took Marcum a few years to really hit his stride. Since 2008 he’s pitched to a 3.57 ERA (88 ERA-) and a 3.97 FIP (97 FIP-) in a bit less than 700 innings. He did miss the entire 2009 season due to Tommy John surgery, but that’s a solidly above-average performance.

Marcum just turned 31 years old last month and is a free agent this offseason. You probably knew that already, but a lot of casual fans might not since there have been very few mentions of his name on various rumor-churning sites. Casual fans also might not realize Marcum is a pretty good pitcher either, but that’s besides the point. We have ourselves a perfectly capable right-handed starter who has been worth at least 3.0 RA9-wins in five of the last six seasons he’s pitched and is having trouble finding a job. It doesn’t make sense, especially with only five weeks to go in the offseason.

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Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 1/10/13


Daily Notes: Top Performances of the Mexican Pacific League

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Top Performances of the Mexican Pacific League
2. Unhelpful Video: Barbaro Canizares Homering for Spain
3. Final (!) SCOUT Leaderboards: Mexican Pacific League

Top Performances of the Mexican Pacific League
The playoffs for the Mexican Pacific League (MPL) have begun — and, as such, the regular-season stats for the players in said League are final.

Here are the top performers of the MPL, per SCOUT (a metric explained below, but which, briefly stated, uses regressed inputs to help make sense of small samples).

Best Hitter (Overall): Barbaro Canizares
A native of Cuba, first baseman Barbaro Canizares defected in February of 2004 and was signed eventually by Atlanta in 2006. He left affiliated baseball after the 2010 season, having accrued 21 major-league plate appearances, and has played in Mexico and with the independent American Association since. While a number of top hitters in the MPL approximated Canizares’ home-run rate this season, his control of the plate (he posted a 42:35 BB:K) is what set him apart.

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2013 ZiPS Projections – Kansas City Royals

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, will be released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Kansas City Royals. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Rangers.

Batters
Jeff Francoeur remains better at baseball than almost everyone — but likely not as good as an average major-leaguer. It will probably not shock Royals fans that Francoeur — who GM Dayton Moore suggested in December will remain the team’s starting right fielder even after posting a -1.2 WAR in 2012 — is projected to be the weakest link among Kansas City’s field players.

Of some interest will be how the club handles second base this year. Despite having posted just a 64 wRC+ and -0.8 WAR in his first 376 major-league plate appearances, 25-year-old Johnny Giavotella’s profile — according to ZiPS — remains that of league-average player. To his credit, he posted one of the best regressed offensive lines in the Pacific Coast League last year among prospect-aged batters.

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Effectively Wild Episode 116: Has the Sabermetric Movement Helped or Hurt Jack Morris?

Ben and Sam try to figure out whether the sabermetric movement has helped keep Jack Morris out of the Hall of Fame or given him a better chance to get in.


When Barry Bonds Made an Out

It was announced earlier today that Barry Bonds has not been voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Nobody was voted into the Hall of Fame, and there are several topics worthy of discussion, but I’m partial to the Bonds one, myself, because the voting results provide a reason to look at Bonds’ career statistics again. Asterisks or no asterisks, Bonds’ numbers are downright impossible, and looking at them is the most fun a person can have at work the most fun a person who doesn’t write from home for FanGraphs can have at work. You shouldn’t be allowed to drive and drink, you shouldn’t be allowed to drive and text, and you shouldn’t be allowed to drive and consider Barry Bonds’ career baseball statistics.

By WAR, Bonds’ best season was 2001. By wRC+, Bonds’ best offensive season was 2002. By wRC+, Bonds’ 2002 is the best offensive season in baseball history. At 244, he beats out Babe Ruth’s 1920, at 237. Bonds also had a 234 and a 233. Ruth had a 231 and a 223. A new name finally shows up at #7. Anyway.

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The Speedy Tommy Harper And The Random Career Year

Only 27 players have hit 100 or more homers and stolen 400 or more bases in their career. Eleven of them are in the Baseball Hall of Fame, and four others can reasonably be expected to reach Cooperstown. But there are some names on the list you wouldn’t pull off the top of your head. Tommy Harper? Yep, he’s one of those names. He is also a possessor of that rare feat: the Random Career Year.

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