Due to an unfortunate data error, the numbers in this story did not include park factors upon publication. We have updated the data to include the park factors, and the data you see below is now correct. We apologize for the mistake.

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What’s all this, then? For an explanation of this series, please read the introductory post. As noted in that introduction, the data is a hybrid projection of the ZIPS and Steamer systems with playing time determined through depth charts created by our team of authors. The rankings are based on aggregate projected WAR for each team at a given position.

A note on what you’re going to see below. Below, in accordance with the series, you’ll see all the teams ranked 1 through 30, based on projected shortstop WAR. The team ranked #1 will be in a much better position than the team ranked #30. That’s how rankings work. However, how much separation is there? Between #1 and #30, a lot. Between #1 and #2, a lot. Between #2 and…well here’s a chart I made:

In terms of projected shortstop WAR in 2013, the gap between #1 and #2 is bigger than the gap between #2 and #15. This isn’t, of course, great science, even if it is science. This isn’t, of course, how things are actually going to work out. But this gives you a sense of the spread, and it gives you a sense you shouldn’t care about the ranking as much as you care about the WAR. This, as you might realize, is one of the issues with prospect lists — the slope is never perfectly linear. As long as you know that going in, you won’t misinterpret what you see. Let’s get on now with the actual list, so you can see who’s #1, and who isn’t.

Read the rest of this entry »

Six years ago, Drew Stubbs was a highly regarded Cincinnati Reds prospect about to play his first full professional season. He’s still looking to fulfill his potential. It’s happening with a new team, at a new position. The Cleveland Indians have moved the 28-year-old speedster to right field to make room in center for Michael Bourn.

Stubbs has struggled at the plate. In three-plus seasons his slash line is .241/.312/.386. He’s hit 59 home runs but has struck out 588 times in 2,004 plate appearances. In the eyes of many Reds fans, he should have taken fewer pitches, cut down on his swing and bunted more often.

The University of Texas product first talked to me about his game during an interview for Baseball America, in March 2007. This weekend, he addressed many of the same topics.

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David Laurila: We first talked in 2007. Has your career gone as expected?

Drew Stubbs: At that time, my goal was to make it to the big leagues and have a career. Now that I’m here and have a few years under my belt, I can only look to continue to get better. I don’t think I’ve tapped into the full potential of what I can do at this level. Hopefully I’ll keep coming along.

DL: You said your game was based on speed. Is that still the case?

DS: Speed is something I’m blessed to have and a lot of players aren’t. Whether it’s playing the outfield or running the bases, it is something you can’t coach or teach, so I try to use it to my advantage.

DL: Some people in Cincinnati feel you didn’t take enough advantage of your speed. Is that a fair criticism? Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam talk to Ian Miller about his WBC experience and the response to the tournament in the US and abroad.

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In addition to scouting a trio of young Mariners pitching prospects, a number of top position prospects also made the trip to Goodyear Stadium.

Nick Franklin batted second and played shortstop alongside Brad Miller. Franklin struggled at the plate and in the field as he failed to make hard contact and booted two balls on the infield. Read the rest of this entry »

When arriving at Cleveland camp to scout future Indians, a trio of A-Ball infielders were tops on my list of “must see” players. Francisco Lindor, Dorssys Paulino and Ronny Rodriguez stretched and ran sprints on back fields and I was content to watch them doing morning drills.

Then, a conversation with volunteer field staff forced a change of plans.

In the “B-Game”, the Indians would be playing the Mariners. Out of curiosity, I hurried to the far field to see which Seattle prospects made the trip.

Taijuan Walker? Check.

James Paxton? Check.

Nick Franklin? Check.

Read the rest of this entry »

Due to an unfortunate data error, the numbers in this story did not include park factors upon publication. We have updated the data to include the park factors, and the data you see below is now correct. We apologize for the mistake.

—

What’s all this, then? For an explanation of this series, please read the introductory post. As noted in that introduction, the data is a hybrid projection of the ZIPS and Steamer systems with playing time determined through depth charts created by our team of authors. The rankings are based on aggregate projected WAR for each team at a given position.

Third base is a little deeper than it used to be, and only a handful of teams have little to no hope of being productive at the position. The devil is in the details at the hot corner, as there has been very little turnover among the top 20 teams here. Teams that have quality reserves or prospects coming up the pipeline see a bump here, as we’re looking holistically at the position and not just at the nominal starter. This is an important consideration across the diamond, but particularly so at third given how physically demanding the position is. Only six third basemen suited up in 150 or more games last year. Compare that to 13 at second base and 11 at first base and shortstop, and it becomes clear that depth is important at third base. Unfortunately, most teams don’t have adequate depth, hence the bump for the teams that do.

Let’s get on to the rankings!

Read the rest of this entry »

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Informative Preamble Regarding What the People Want
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: Pac-12 Hitters and Pitchers
3. Largely Unhelpful Video: Arizona State’s Trevor Williams

Informative Preamble Regarding What the People Want
“For what are the people clamoring?”: this is the precise question the author poses to himself each morning as he sits down at his finely crafted and foreign-made desk to compose these Notes. Only today, however, has the answer to that question revealed itself so immediately and so in red-colored Rockwell Extra Bold font, as follows:

Indeed, the thing for which the people are clamoring is truly a record of the top performers of Pac-12 baseball. Nor are the people misguided in their desires. For one thing, five Pac-12 teams — Oregon State (No. 3), UCLA (No. 11), Arizona State (No. 14), Oregon (No. 16), and Arizona (No. 20) — occupy spots in Baseball America’s most recent iteration of its top-25 college rankings. (And a sixth team, Stanford, is littered with possible first-round major-league picks.) For two, the author — along with a not insignificant portion of Team FanGraphs — is currently situated in Phoenix, Arizona, and will likely be making Arizona State’s Friday night game against Washington State his business.

In consideration of these considerations, the author has sought to abide by the wishes of the people and has provided (below) leaderboards which reveal the top performers of the Pac-12 at this exact moment.

Read the rest of this entry »

What’s all this, then? For an explanation of this series, please read the introductory post. As noted in that introduction, the data is a hybrid projection of the ZIPS and Steamer systems with playing time determined through depth charts created by our team of authors. The rankings are based on aggregate projected WAR for each team at a given position.

Due to an unfortunate data error, the numbers in this story did not include park factors upon publication. We have updated the data to include the park factors, and the data you see below is now correct. We apologize for the mistake.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ryan Dempster has never been a flamethrower. Nor has he been an ace. What he’s been is Old Mr. Reliable, consistently logging innings and double-digit win totals. The 35-year-old right-hander comes into the current season — his first with the Red Sox — with a career mark of 124-124 and a league-average ERA-. Originally with the Marlins, he had his best seasons with the Cubs and has also pitched for the Reds and Rangers.

Dempster talked about the evolution of his repertoire, and the importance of command, last week in Fort Myers.

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David Laurila: How much have you evolved over the course of your career?

Ryan Dempster: As you go along, you make adjustments. When you’re younger, you think you can just throw everything by a hitter. You try throwing the ball harder. When you get older, you realize the value of changing speeds and putting the ball where you need to put it. From an approach standpoint, that’s probably what has changed the most.

DL: How hard did you throw when you first signed?

RD: Not much harder than I throw now. I threw a little harder when I was closing, but as a starter I’ve always been kind of around the same.

DL; How much has your repertoire changed over the years?

RD: Now I throw a split-finger fastball. I didn’t throw that until 2005ish, and didn’t really start throwing it a lot until 2008. It’s a different kind of split. It’s not a traditional forkball, but rather more of a split-type changeup. Fergie Jenkins showed it to me. I threw it in the bullpen in the back fields of HoHoKam Park and it ended up working for me. It’s been a good pitch.

DL: How would you describe the grip? Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam discuss their expectations for Tim Lincecum and Roy Halladay after their disappointing 2012 seasons and struggles this spring.

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