Archive for May, 2013

Baseball Will Surprise You — 5/20/13

A true and old expression, paraphrased, is that you never know what you might see when you go to the ballpark. A similar old expression is that whenever you go to the ballpark you’ll see something you’ve never seen before. Taken completely literally, this is true — every single pitch, every single swing, every single ball in play, every single act, specifically, is unprecedented. A baseball game has infinite coordinates and infinite possible paths. Taken less literally, some games are boring and feel like games you’ve seen before, but baseball is nevertheless full of surprises. If it doesn’t always show you something you’ve never seen, it at least frequently shows you something you’ve seldom seen. This is the magic of a sport with so many repetitions. Put another way, this is the magic of baseball.

On this particular Monday, two games are in the books as of this writing. The Indians walked off against the Mariners, and the Blue Jays hosted and defeated the Rays. Both of those things have happened before, but the games themselves included a handful of rarities. I thought it’d be a good idea to show some of them off, just to remind you that this sport we watch is insane. Below, you’ll see four things that happened that very rarely happen. For all I know I missed a couple more. Not included is that Colby Rasmus went a full game without striking out, but know that I thought about it. On now to four bits of weirdness.

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FanGraphs Audio: Dave Cameron Says All He Has to Say

Episode 339
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he says all the he’s required to say.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 41 min play time.)

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Sean Nolin: Next Blue Jays Savior?

It’s been well documented that the Toronto Blue Jays’ season hasn’t exactly gone as planned. A rash of injuries to the veteran pitching staff has created a number of holes. Those gaps have been difficult to fill with competent contributors because the organizational depth was compromised in an effort to beef up the big league product. It’s been speculated in the Toronto media that pitching prospect Sean Nolin, currently at the Double-A level, is viewed by the Jays front office as the next-in-line for a promotion, should the need arise.

Toronto has made a few moves this year that could be considered desperation moves and the promotion of Nolin may not be in the best long-term interests of the club or the young pitching prospect.

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A New Low for Miguel Cabrera

Sunday night, the Rangers hosted the Tigers in a matchup between two of the American League’s better teams. You’d think the big story would be that the Rangers rallied from a deficit to beat the Tigers 11-8. But then, it’s May, and the Rangers are going to win a lot, and the Tigers are going to lose a lot (albeit, presumably, a smaller lot than the first lot). Sure seems to me the big story is that Miguel Cabrera clubbed three dingers. That sort of game for Cabrera shouldn’t come as a surprise, but it’s a bigger surprise than the Rangers beating the Tigers. Cabrera’s individual effort has people re-analyzing his game, in the exact same way everyone did last November.

And Cabrera didn’t just club three ordinary dingers. According to the ESPN Home Run Tracker, there were 22 homers on Sunday. The longest was hit by Miguel Cabrera. The second-longest was hit by Miguel Cabrera. The third-longest was hit by Miguel Cabrera. The fourth-longest wasn’t hit by Miguel Cabrera, but now you’re being greedy. All of the homers were similar, and all of the homers were significantly different.

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Edward Mujica: The Other One Pitch Closer

Mariano Rivera is the best relief pitcher of all time, and his 20 year run of greatness has mostly been fueled by throwing one pitch. The dominance of Rivera’s cut fastball has been well documented, and you likely know that when the Yankees have the lead in the 9th inning, opponents are going to see cutter after cutter after cutter.

But, now, over in St. Louis, Rivera has an odd imitator of sorts. No, the Cardinals closer is not a cutter specialist; he doesn’t even throw one. Instead, Edward Mujica — the team’s emergency fill-in closer with Jason Motte on the shelf — is closing out games using an endless supply of change-ups.

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What Cole Hamels Is Doing Differently

Cole Hamels has not looked like himself this year. After ERAs of 3.06, 2.79, and 3.05 from 2010 through 2012, Hamels now has a 4.61 ERA nine starts into this season. By itself, that doesn’t mean he’s doing anything wrong. Pitchers are vulnerable to random fluctuations and luck in nine — or even in 30 — starts. For example, take the Hamels from 2009: After the left-hander finished 2008 with a 3.09 ERA and a World Series MVP trophy, expectations were high for the next season. But Hamels fell by the wayside and posted a 4.32 ERA, even though his walk, strikeout, and ground ball numbers were all in the normal range for him.

His DIPS numbers suggested that there wasn’t anything really wrong with Hamels then, and that with a little bit of patience, he would go back to dominating hitters as he had previously. In 2010, that suggestion came to fruition, and Hamels went right back to being one of the game’s premier left-handed starters.

Fast forward to 2013, and Hamels ERA is up once again. However, this time, something does look different. Look at his walk rate, his strikeout rate, his SIERA and his ERA in the past six years:
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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/20/13

12:01
Dan Szymborski: Will the circle-change be unbroken, by and by, by and by? The answer to this and a percentage of other questions asked coming up next, on the Dan Szymborski Baseball-Related Chat of Doom and Ultimate Destruction!

12:01
Comment From zack
Homer Bailey or Lance Lynn rest of season?

12:02
Dan Szymborski: Irish Creme by a sip.

12:03
Comment From Tim
Can you explain why HBP and BB have different weights in wOBA?

12:03
Dan Szymborski: It’s from historical data. Most likely is that HBP is more random — some unintentional walks are going to be “partly” intentional and those “partly” intentional walks are, on average, going to be given in slightly lower leverage situations.

12:04
Comment From Ray
Curious as to what you expect from Grandal once he comes back. I did not see ZiPS on his player page. Would you expect more of the same as last year or would you discount his offense as a result of the positive PED test?

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Daily Notes: Scott Kazmir’s Increasing Velocity, Animated

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Seattle at Cleveland, 12:05pm ET
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Seattle at Cleveland, 12:05pm ET
Regarding This Game, Who’s Starting It for Cleveland
Starting this game for Cleveland is left-hander Scott Kazmir (25.1 IP, 96 xFIP-, -0.1 WAR).

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Kevin Gausman, MLB Ready?

Rick Peterson looked on from the Bowie Baysox’s dugout as Kevin Gausman stated his case. The Orioles’ prized right hander decimated the Trenton Thunder over six innings, striking out ten and allowing few well hit balls. With Baltimore four games behind the American League East division leaders and their rotation in shambles, expect Gausman to earn a promotion after the super-two deadline passes in mid-June. In eight starts with Double-A Bowie, Gausman has been nearly untouchable. He’s third in the Eastern League in FIP, and owns a 25.7% strikeout rate and a 2.6% walk rate.

The high-waisted 6’3″ right hander has a long, lean frame and he’s listed at just 190 lbs. There is plenty of room for growth throughout his body, if he should choose to cultivate mass. In the windup, Gausman has a high leg kick. He brings his left leg to his hands, which rest chest high at takeaway before he delivers the ball from a high three quarter arm slot.

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Q&A: Vic Black, Pirates’ Future Closer

Vic Black is the heir apparent to the closer’s job in Pittsburgh. The 24-year-old right-hander won’t be replacing Jason Grilli in the near future, but he may be joining Grilli in the Pirates’ bullpen. Four years after being drafted 49th overall out of Dallas Baptist University, Black looks close to big-league ready.

Black cooks with gas: His fastball sits in the mid-to-high 90s and touches triple digits. His slider can be overpowering. Last season, at Double-A Altoona, he logged an Eastern League-best 12.8 strikeouts per nine innings. This year, with Triple-A Indianapolis, his K-rate is 12.5 — and he has almost as many saves [11] as hits allowed [14].

Black talked about his power repertoire this past weekend on a visit to McCoy Stadium in Pawtucket, R.I.

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