Archive for May, 2013

Effectively Wild Episode 206: When Does it Make Sense to Fire Managers?/What We Think about Hot Streaks

Ben and Sam talk about the circumstances under which they’d feel comfortable recommending that a manager be fired, then discuss different beliefs about hot streaks.


Daily Notes: Two Notable Rookie Performances from Saturday

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Two Notable Rookie Performances from Saturday
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Two Notable Rookie Performances from Saturday
Two rookie pitchers made notable appearances on Saturday. What follows is Priceless Information regarding both.

Player: Danny Farquhar, RHP, Seattle (Profile)
Line: 2.2 IP, 8 TBF, 5 K, 0 BB, 1 GB on 3 batted-balls, 0.36 xFIP
Notes: Having been dominant so far this season at Triple-A Tacoma (20.0 IP, 30 K, 4 BB), the 26-year-old Farquhar was promoted Friday. Saturday’s 2.2-inning relief performance represented the right-hander’s major-league debut. Farquhar’s 0.36 xFIP was the lowest among any pitcher to record more than a single inning of work on Saturday. He sat at 92-96 with his four-seam fastball and complemented it what what appears to be a cutter or slider and also a slower (ca. 80 mph) curve. Of the 17 pitches classified by Brooks Baseball as four-seam fastballs, Farquhar recorded four swinging strikes.

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Daily Notes: A Brief Review of Burch Smith’s Second Start

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Brief Review: Burch Smith’s Second Start
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Brief Review: Burch Smith’s Second Start
Introduction
San Diego right-hander Burch Smith, owner of both a mid-90s fastball and excellent line in the Double-A Texas League, made his major-league debut last Saturday against Tampa Bay and the results were poor (box). He made his second start last night (Friday) at home against Washington. What follows is a brief review of that second start.

Smith’s Results
Because he conceded three home runs, but because he also posted an 8:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio against just 23 batters, there’s a gap between how many runs Smith conceded and how many one might expect him to concede usually. For example, Smith’s single-game ERA and FIP were 8.44 and 7.90, respectively — which is to say, not ideal. His single-game xFIP, however (which metric normalizes home-run rate per fly ball), was just 2.49 — which is to say, much better. Overall, here’s his line from the Friday night (box): 5.1 IP, 23 TBF, 8 K, 1 BB, 1 GB on 13 batted-balls (7.7% GB), 6 H, 3 HR, 5 R.

Smith’s Pitches
As the PITCHf/x chart below (featuring pitch speed and horizontal movement) reveals, Smith threw somewhere between three and five pitches (depending on how one separates the fastballs): a fastball, a changeup, and a curve.

sMITH cHART

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The Worst of the Best: The Week’s Wildest Swings

Hey there, and welcome to the second part of the sixth edition of The Worst Of The Best. Here’s a link to last week’s second part, which happened to cover twice as many weeks as usual due to reasons. This post would’ve gone up sooner in the day, but MLB.tv chose this afternoon to be obnoxiously buggy with the archives, and this series is completely, utterly, helplessly dependent on MLB.tv functioning like a reliable service. Which it normally does, because it’s great, but that only makes it all the more frustrating when it doesn’t, especially when you need it for part of your job. If MLB.tv were to never work again, I, too, would never work again, here. I’d be stripped naked. When the archives are malfunctioning, I lose my cool. I yelled at my computer because I couldn’t watch Jeff Locke throw a two-strike breaking ball to Kyle Lohse for 20 minutes. There’s an ugly side to me, and MLB.tv knows just how to reveal it to the world.

Anyway, I was eventually able to obtain everything I needed, so off we go with the week’s five wildest swings, or five swings at pitches furthest from the center of the strike zone. I don’t count attempted hit-and-runs, and I don’t count checked swings that were judged to have gone too far. That Lohse swing I waited 20 minutes to see? Checked. We’re looking at games from between May 10 – May 16, and of course there are going to be .gifs ahead. I hope you like two-strike breaking balls, because we’ve got a lot of ’em. And only three pitchers! Unless you count a fourth pitcher, who was serving as a hitter. Whatever, you’ll see what I mean. Let’s get this over with.

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FanGraphs Audio: The Readily Available Mike Bates

Episode 338
Regarding Mike Bates, it’s fair to say that he (a) writes for NotGraphs and SB Nation, (b) looks outward for affirmation of his self-worth, and (c) is the accidental guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 52 min play time.)

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The 1998 Astros Were Pretty Good At Hitting

In the 1990s, the Yankees had a pretty fantastic offense. They won three World Series trophies, and would win a fourth to kick off the aught’s. Everyone remembers their great offense. But what might get lost in the weeds a little bit is just how fantastic the Astros’ offense was in the ‘90s, because they were pretty great too. They had the best offense in the National League for the decade, and they would really hit their stride in 1998, when they put up the best offensive team performance in the wild card era.

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The Worst of the Best: The Week’s Wildest Pitches

Hello there present friends, future friends, and probably not my brother. Brother, if you’re reading this, send me a sign, that isn’t a comment posted down below. Welcome to the first part of the sixth edition of The Worst Of The Best. Here’s a link to last week’s part, that actually covered two weeks instead of the customary one. If you’d like to read about skincare products made from goat milk, go here. If you’d like to read about hatmaker Polly Singer, go here. If you’d like to read about Magic Valley High’s production of “The Yellow Boat,” go here. If you’d like to read about really wild baseball pitches, and if you’d like to see them, please proceed.

We’re covering May 10 – May 16, with a top-five list of the pitches furthest from the center of the strike zone. It’s all based on PITCHf/x, and there are going to be .gifs, in case you weren’t already aware. And a whole lot of screenshots, too many screenshots. Some pitches just narrowly missing: Cody Allen to Torii Hunter on May 11, and J.P. Howell to Adam LaRoche on May 15. Cory Gearrin threw a pitch to Didi Gregorius that was more than four feet outside. Could Cory Gearrin throw a pitch so wild that Didi Gregorius couldn’t field it? Yes, of course, one doesn’t field pitches. We’re ready for the list now, and this week’s list comes with a special bonus. I’ll put it first!

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Q&A: Ryan Rowland-Smith, Comeback from Fear

From 2007-2009, Ryan Rowland-Smith was an effective pitcher for the Seattle Mariners. The Australian-born southpaw appeared in 88 games and logged an ERA below 4.00 for three years running. His move from the bullpen to the starting rotation had been seamless. His future looked bright.

Then the roof caved in. In 2010, Rowland-Smith went 1-10 with a 6.75 ERA. He allowed 141 hits in 109 innings and walked nearly as many batters as he struck out. He hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since.

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Carlos Rodon, Clay Holmes And Pitcher Efficiency

When it comes to minor league and amateur baseball, scouting box scores tells only a piece of the story. In mid-April, I had the opportunity to travel to Greenville, S.C., to see West Virginia Pirates right-hander Clay Holmes. Five days later, North Carolina State ace Carlos Rodon pitched the Saturday night game at Georgia Tech. As of today, Rodon is the top prospect in the 2014 draft.

Admittedly, my last NCAA baseball game was in 2011, when now-Mariners prospect Danny Hultzen faced off against now-Padres prospect Mark Pope. Carson Cistulli would shame me in public for my general lack of interest in the college game, but that lack of familiarity is a driving factor for this piece.

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How the Rays Leverage the Edge

In Sports Illustrated’s 2013 baseball preview, Tom Verducci wrote a great profile of the Tampa Bay Rays and their approach to optimizing the performance of their pitching staff.

One topic that was especially interesting to me was the apparent importance the Rays place on the 1-1 count. Verducci recounts how pitching coach Jim Hickey described the organization’s focus on getting opposing batters into 1-2 counts:

The Rays believe no pitch changes the course of that at bat more than the 1-and-1 delivery. “It’s almost a 200-point swing in on-base percentage with one ball and two strikes as opposed to two balls and one strike,” Hickey told the pitchers.

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