Archive for July, 2013

Introducing the Adam Dunn Hat Trick

A goal, an assist and a fight. A gino, a helper and a tilly. That’s The Gordie Howe Hat Trick, a rare feat in the game of hockey that honors the gritty and the skilled. It’s a feat that its namesake, Mr. Hockey himself, actually only did twice in his career – it’s named more for his career-long achievements in point production and face punching.

Well, it’s high time that baseball got a hat trick of its own. So today, with a hat tip to David Laurila for the idea, we’re introducing the Adam Dunn Hat Trick.

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The Marlins and Minimum Payrolls

Major League Baseball’s attempts to narrow the gap between franchises has resulted in an incentive system. While other leagues have salary caps and floors, Major League Baseball has instituted a system of luxury taxes (to bring down the highest payrolls) and revenue sharing (to bring up the lowest ones). As I noted in a piece for ESPN The Magazine this spring, the system has been pretty effective too, as we are currently experiencing an age of parity unlike any time in MLB history.

However, incentives don’t work in every situation. You can carrot-and-stick your way to success on a broad level while still having some individuals fall through the cracks. Overall, I think MLB’s financial system is mostly as effective at promoting competitive balance as a hard salary cap would be, but that doesn’t mean that the system doesn’t have some flaws. And, with the Ricky Nolasco trade, the Miami Marlins are shining a bright light on the system’s flaws once again.

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/8/13

11:59
Dan Szymborski: Time, Peanut Butter Jelly.

11:59
Comment From zack
Does Colby Rasmus not suck anymore?

11:59
Dan Szymborski: He is a mid-range dude. Rasmus is either the crappiest good player or the best crappy player in baseball.

12:00
Comment From Alex
Grant Green worth a pickup in 12 teamers?

12:01
Dan Szymborski: As long as you know it’s speculative. He’s not going to grab all the palying time

12:01
Comment From Steal this Handle
just how Hard will Michael Cuddyer’s current .374 babip crash back to earth in the 2nd half?

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Breaking Down the Season’s Most Unlikely Double Steal

Some years ago, when they were up-and-coming instead of bad, Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez were both Seattle Mariners. The Mariners are well known for their advertising campaigns, and in one they pitched Betancourt and Lopez as the “double play twins,” middle infielders who did everything together, both on and off the field. Betancourt and Lopez, at the time, had a lot in common. Today, they continue to have a lot in common, which is too bad. But they were teammates, and they were sold as a pair.

A much better pair of teammates today includes Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. The two are commonly discussed as a duo, as they make up perhaps baseball’s most intimidating lineup core. Cabrera and Fielder are supposed to do some things together, like crush baseballs. In the third inning on Saturday, for example, they slugged back-to-back dingers. What they’re not supposed to do together is steal. Cabrera and Fielder, combined, have fewer career steals than John Kruk. But, Sunday afternoon, the two pulled off a most unlikely double steal, and this demands to be investigated.

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Daily Notes: Greatest Home-Runs Seasons Relative to League

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Greatest Home-Runs Seasons Relative to League
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Greatest Home-Runs Seasons Relative to League
Introduction
After his home run this weekend at Yankee Stadium, Baltimore first baseman Chris Davis now has 33 for the season. With over half the season complete, it would appear as though Davis has a slight probability of surpassing the 61-home-run threshold set by Roger Maris in 1961 and an almost non-extant probability of reaching Barry Bonds‘ record of 73, set in 2001.

With regard to Davis, however, it’s entirely possible that some readers will credit his accomplishments more subtantially than Bonds’ — or Mark McGwire‘s or Sammy Sosa’s, etc. — because Davis’ powerful first half has occurred during an era in which Major League Baseball is testing for certain performance-enhancing drugs. While the author has absolutely no intention of examining to what degree PEDs do or don’t actually enhance performance, concerns about PEDs do reveal an actually interesting point — namely, the degree to which certain eras have signature (some higher, some lower) home-run rates. Indeed, it might be best were we to celebrate those players not with the highest absolute home-run totals, but those with the best home-run rates relative to their peers.

With a view to examining which players have produced the most impressive home-run seasons relative to their peers, the author has first identified the league-average home-run rates (home runs per at-bat, and not plate appearance, for reasons that are mentioned below) for every season since 1876. The author has then divided every qualified player’s seasonal home-run rates (since 1876, as well) by the relevant league-average rate for that year. The result is an index stat, HR+, which measure home-run rate relative to league average, where a higher figure is better.

A pair of tables below contain the relevant results.

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Miami Trades Ricky Nolasco for Warm Bodies

Using veteran right-hander Ricky Nolasco as bait, the Miami Marlins have successfully hooked three hard-throwing arms. The Fish have acquired Angel Sanchez, Josh Wall and Steve Ames, while the two clubs also exchanged international signing dollars, and you can read more about the big league portion of the deal by checking out Jeff Sullivan’s offering from the weekend.

This deal can be best categorized as quantity over quality, in terms of the prospects heading to the state of Florida. Although all three young, right-handed hurlers can hit the low-to-mid 90s with their fastballs, their ceilings are tempered by command issues and lack of consistent secondary stuff. Despite having a weaker minor league system in terms of depth, none of the three arms appeared on my pre-season Top 15 prospects list for the Dodgers. The prospects have never appeared on any FanGraphs top prospects lists over the past four seasons, although Sanchez was highlighted as a potential sleeper on my pre-2012 Dodgers Top 15 prospects compilation.

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Q&A: Marten Gasparini, Italia to Royals Prospect

For Marten Gasparini, choosing Royal blue over Savoy Blue was a matter of heart. The 16-year-old loves his native land, but when it comes to sport, baseball in America beats the Azzurri.

Gasparini made history when he inked a contract with the Kansas City Royals last week. An native of northern Italy, he received a $1.3 million signing bonus — a record for a European amateur. A switch-hitting shortstop with elite athleticism, he is rated the 12th-best international prospect by Baseball America. According to reports, scouts feel he might be the best European prospect ever.

Gasparini talked about his love of America’s pastime — and why he chose it over Italy’s sporting passion — this past weekend.

——

Gasparini on his immediate future: “Right now I’m in Kansas City meeting with people from the Royals. From here I’m going to Arizona, to the complex, then back to Italy to play in the European [Junior] Championships, in Prague. After that, I’ll be back in Arizona, working out.

“I’ll be at [instructional league] in the fall. I’m going to be talking to the coaches I’ll be working with, but right now I don’t know exactly what they’ll want me to work on. All I know is that I’ll be playing baseball. But I‘m sure I‘ll be working on running, fielding, my swing — I’ll need to work on everything.

“My best tool is speed. That’s whether I’m in the field, on the bases, or in the box. I like playing shortstop the most, but if they feel it is better to move me to the outfield, it’s OK. But shortstop is the position I love to play.”

On hitting and the level of competition he‘s faced: “In Europe, usually you can find 85 [mph], maybe high 80s. But for most pitchers, you don’t see 90s. I’m pretty comfortable hitting against mid 80s. I’ve faced some pretty good [breaking pitches].

“There are some good pitchers in the Netherlands. I was also in the Under-18s last year [in Seoul, South Korea] and faced some Japanese and Canadian pitchers who were really good. They had some great curveballs and sliders.

“I try to stay patient at the plate. I try always to wait for my pitch, and when I get to two strikes, I shorten my swing up and use the whole field.”

On choosing baseball over soccer: “Soccer just doesn’t make me feel as good. I think it’s kind of boring, because everybody does it. I have a much better feel for baseball. They’ve told me I could go to [soccer] practices and maybe perform well, but it is more than just [athleticism]. It is technique that makes you go far.

“I played stickball when I was about eight years old. I first started to play baseball when I was 10.”

“I’ve been following [Major League Baseball] every day on the internet. I go to MLB.com and follow games on live streaming. The players I like the most are Derek Jeter, Matt Kemp, and Yasiel Puig.”


Effectively Wild Episode 238: Picking the Worst-All Stars Possible/Josh Hamilton’s Tobacco Turnaround

Ben and Sam pick the worst players eligible for the All-Star Game, then discuss Josh Hamilton’s smokeless tobacco use.


Daily Notes: CoreyKluberSociety in Bad Decline

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. CoreyKluberSociety in Bad Decline
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

CoreyKluberSociety in Bad Decline
Regarding the Title of This Post
In 1996, very talented fiction writer George Saunders released his first book, CivilWarLand in Bad Decline, which book was described that same year in a New York Times review by influential novelist Jay McInerney as the “most accomplished short-story debut since Barry Hannah’s Airships” and, in a postcard sent by Carson Cistulli to Saunders himself three summers later, as “better than Nintendo.”

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Daily Notes: Adjusted Strikeout Totals for Every Friday Starter

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Adjusted Strikeout Totals for Every Friday Starter
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Adjusted Strikeout Totals for Every Friday Starter
Introduction
Despite allowing four runs, Texas right-hander Nick Tepesch also struck out nine of the 22 — or, about 41% — of the batters he faced on Friday, the best rate among all of the evening’s 30 starting pitchers. That he did it against the Houston Astros, however — i.e. the club whose batters strike out more often than any other club’s — assuredly renders the feat less impressive.

“How much less impressive?” is a question the author more or less asked himself on Saturday morning — and the one he attempted to answer slightly less early on Saturday morning.

The results of the attempt are published below. What the author has done is to identify the strikeout rate for each team relative to league average. That figure is represented as an index stat, Opp K+, where a lower figure signifies a lower team strikeout rate relative to league average. The author has then divided every pitcher’s strikeout rate from Friday’s game by Opp K+, the result of which is an adjusted strikeout rate for the pitcher, or Adj Pit K%.

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