Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/8/13 by Dave Cameron July 8, 2013 11:59 Dan Szymborski: Time, Peanut Butter Jelly. 11:59 Comment From zackDoes Colby Rasmus not suck anymore? 11:59 Dan Szymborski: He is a mid-range dude. Rasmus is either the crappiest good player or the best crappy player in baseball. 12:00 Comment From AlexGrant Green worth a pickup in 12 teamers? 12:01 Dan Szymborski: As long as you know it’s speculative. He’s not going to grab all the palying time 12:01 Comment From Steal this Handlejust how Hard will Michael Cuddyer’s current .374 babip crash back to earth in the 2nd half? 12:01 Dan Szymborski: Pretty hard, though it should be above career line given the park. 12:01 Comment From zackThe Phillies should make a deal with the dodgers, get Ethier. Not only would this add another bloated longterm deal to their payroll, but it would create the awe inspiring Delmon Francoeur platoon 12:02 Dan Szymborski: Tha’ts just depressing. 12:02 Dan Szymborski: and I’m not a phillies fan! 12:03 Dan Szymborski: It is kind of cute that the Phillies think they’re dangling on the edge of buyers and sellers. Kinda like that 30-year-old waiter you know that thinks he’s on the precipice of becoming and actor/model. 12:04 Comment From LarryADo you endorse Zips 3.79 ROS ERA for Lincecum? 12:04 Dan Szymborski: Nothing between ERA of 2 and an ERA of 7 from Linc at this point. I don’t have the foggiest idea. 12:04 Comment From GSonTwo chilli cheese dogs w/ onions.. and you don’t want to be down wind later.. 12:05 Comment From Steal this HandleRaul Ibanez: useful rest of 2013 or pumpkin time at some point before? 12:05 Dan Szymborski: His stats will come down a bit, but he can still hack his way to homers. 12:06 Dan Szymborski: He’s completely pointless on the Mariners, but he’s had enough power to be a solid contributor, especially lately 12:06 Comment From CrustyMike Trout, a career .400 wOBA guy? 12:06 Dan Szymborski: No. 12:06 Dan Szymborski: He’s below .400 now and he’s not going to be better overall for his career than he has over the first two years of his career. 12:07 Comment From Steal this HandleWei Yin Chen: can he get back to last year’s 7+ K rate if fully healthy now/ 12:08 Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be fine. As fine as you can expect a pitcher to be of course 12:08 Dan Szymborski: They’ve been careful about not rushing him back from the oblique – you always worry when teams rush players with those non-arm injuries back given that pain can cause change in delivery 12:08 Comment From bdhudsonWHY DOES EVERYONE ALWAYS ASK IF COLY RASMUS STILL SUCKS 12:09 Dan Szymborski: You don’t have to ask them. 12:09 Comment From ChrisI just traded Andrus and Myers for Stanton good trade for a 10 team roto? 12:09 Dan Szymborski: I’d be happy with Stanton for Andrus and Myers. 12:10 Comment From GSonBigger ASG snub.. Longo or Beltre? 12:10 Dan Szymborski: That’s like asking if I rather be castrated with an ice cream scoop or a melon baller. 12:10 Comment From BretWould it be silly for the Jays to be buyers at the deadline this year? 12:10 Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure they have enough currency to make a move big enough to drastically change the directory. 12:12 Comment From BruceCheer up everyone, its mid-season top prospects lists season!! 12:12 Comment From NashThoughts on Liriano for the rest of the year? 12:13 Dan Szymborski: I’m cautiously optimistic. 12:14 Dan Szymborski: Like Morrow before, people looked at Liriano’s bases empty/runners on stats and reverse-engineered the reason for those splits. 12:14 Dan Szymborski: Which made those people then underrate the players. You expect *some* guys to regularly do that 12:15 Dan Szymborski: (Morrow sucks this year, but he’s actually sucked more with the bases empty than with runners on) 12:15 Comment From bdhudsonManny Ramirez will have a major league AB this year. True or False? 12:15 Dan Szymborski: I think false 12:15 Comment From Mr. Wrestling IVWhich current MLB player would make the best pro wrestler? 12:16 Dan Szymborski: Matt Holliday has those popeye forearms 12:16 Dan Szymborski: Reddick of course, already has experience playing the wrestling crowd 12:16 Dan Szymborski: David Ortiz would be big if he did a comedy dance. 12:17 Comment From Steal this Handlewhich park is playing the most differently this season: Petco or Safeco? 12:17 Dan Szymborski: Both have played a little less extreme, but both remain strong pitchers’ parks 12:17 Dan Szymborski: Risky to draw too much into 3 months of home/away stats. 12:17 Dan Szymborski: But the evidence of a *drastic* change isn’t there 12:18 Comment From zackWhen will Matt Moore start throwing more strikes? 12:18 Dan Szymborski: He may never. Losing that walk or two is the biggest obstacle for him to be a star. 12:18 Comment From Sgt. PepperDoes Zips adjust pitcher WL totals if a player gets traded or otherwise switches teams? 12:19 Dan Szymborski: On my end it does, but I don’t actually know if the implementation that Apples uses has that ability 12:19 Comment From Dr. MetAnything in Josh Reddick’s numbers since returning from the wrist injury predicting a second half surge? LD rate encouraging and so is the walk rate no? 12:20 Dan Szymborski: It is, but I think 2012 was his ceiling 12:20 Comment From mr. anonymousdan straily.. thoughts on his somewhat pedestrian k%, but impressive swstr%? shouldn’t he be striking more guys out? 12:21 Dan Szymborski: he’s good at getting batters to swing at crap, but he doesn’t have that killer out pitch. 12:21 Comment From Mr. Wrestling IVCarGo (the Gomez version) has been amazing, but his value drops in an OBP league. Is a .330 OBP moving forward reasonable? 12:21 Dan Szymborski: I think it is 12:22 Dan Szymborski: He always had a puzzling low BABIP for a fast dude. His ucrrent BABIP isn’t likely sustainable, but he should have enough to keep that BA high enough to keep the OBP non-terrible 12:22 Dan Szymborski: It’s kind of sad that the Twins ended up with the good side of the Santana trade after all, but never got any of the benefit 12:22 Comment From Steal this Handle% odds Cas(s)ey Janssen (old, iffy shoulder) gets hurt and Delabar takes over the 9th in TOR this year? 12:23 Dan Szymborski: 115%, thus breaking math. 12:23 Comment From Sad ElephantGrieve with me over the A’s only getting one All-Star, (and its not Josh Donaldson), please. 12:23 Dan Szymborski: I’d Ben Grieve with you, but that might be even more depressing 12:24 Comment From GuestWhat’s the % chance that Trout and/or Harper reach 100 career WAR? 12:24 Dan Szymborski: Don’t have the exact numbers but perhaps not as great as one might think on the surface. 12:24 Dan Szymborski: The surprises for a guy on top of baseball are almost all negative. That’s why SI covers and Madden boxes are “curses” 12:25 Comment From atomsWhat’s the most likely Kevin Gregg destination? 12:25 Dan Szymborski: Tigers? Maybe Red Sox once they discover they don’t have enough pitchers to change closers every week? 12:25 Comment From Bird16 team dynasty league. I was offered Hosmer/Lawrie for Ortiz. I’m not compete, other guy is. I accepted now trade is being reviewed. This seems fair to me. Your take? 12:26 Dan Szymborski: I’d take it. 12:26 Dan Szymborski: And even if I wouldn’t, I don’t think that’s veto-worthy 12:26 Comment From Mr. Wrestling IVBrandon Beachy: Will he make contributions this year, or am I basically holding onto him for next year? 12:27 Dan Szymborski: I think he’s more of a gamble for this year. He’s been fair in rehab stint but his command hasn’t been very sharp. 12:27 Dan Szymborski: I like Beachy, but I think he’s far more likely to be a plus going into 2014. 12:27 Comment From mr. anonymousbrad miller has been batting leadoff for the m’s the last couple of games, do you think this will continue? 12:28 Dan Szymborski: It could – the m’s aren’t exactly overloaded with “classic” leadoff types 12:29 Comment From LaLooshif Scott Hairston can return a decent RP prospect, what is Marlon Byrd worth? 12:29 Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t play the proportion game – I’m surprised the Cubs got someone with a pulse 12:30 Comment From BHShould Billy Butler be sent to the Camp Krusty Fat Camp until he can hit dingers again? 12:30 Dan Szymborski: Krusty Fat Camp was based on imitation gruel and very low-calorie diets – Butler would lose fat, but he’d also lose muscle. 12:30 Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll hit a few more in second half, get around 15, which isn’t an unreasonable number for an off year for him 12:31 Dan Szymborski: He may look like someone you want to hit 40 HR, but he’s not that guy 12:31 Comment From bill braskyChris Carpenter worth a DL stash? 12:32 Dan Szymborski: If you have the room, he’d be a fun stash 12:32 Dan Szymborski: He’s made a career out of defying injury odds 12:33 Comment From bdhudsonThe Mariners will be competitive in the year 20XX 12:33 Dan Szymborski: Isn’t that the year the NES games Mega Man was set in? 12:33 Dan Szymborski: I’ll say 2015, but predicting the near future is already hard 12:33 Comment From SteveHave you ever seen something like the Hamilton chewing tobacco thing? The guy actually seems like he knows what he’s doing now that he’s chewing again! 12:34 Dan Szymborski: I’ve seen lots of people be pathetically sad off of nicotine! 12:34 Dan Szymborski: When my sister quit cigarettes, she was going into tears every day 12:35 Dan Szymborski: And I made fun of her when she bit into celery and thought the taste was intense 12:35 Comment From bill braskyDoes Peavy get traded? 12:36 Dan Szymborski: I think he does. The White Sox usually hang around just close enough that the delusional can make a case. 12:36 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’re close enough this time. 12:36 Comment From LarryAOut of Henderson, Axford and Krod, is it safe to assume that Henderson is the only one left after the deadline? 12:37 Dan Szymborski: They don’t *have* to trade Axford right now. 12:37 Dan Szymborski: He may be more valuable when/if he gets some saves again someday 12:37 Comment From Steal this Handlewould a drastic change of directory be like C:\ to Z:\? 12:37 Dan Szymborski: Wait, what? 12:39 Dan Szymborski: Sorry, was talking to my editor 12:39 Dan Szymborski: I change letter drives quite regularly 12:39 Comment From NickThe Pirates are currently letting Jose Tabata get the lion’s share of at bats in right field, and so far he hasn’t been terrible. Do you think he’s the answer in right or are the Pirates shopping for outfielders at the deadline? 12:40 Dan Szymborski: The thing is, the Pirates have gotten to where they are from patience – I’m not sure they pull a big trigger here, but they wouldn’t be against it if the opportunity arises 12:40 Comment From PatNova here to stay you think this year? Thrown pretty solid in the minors this year too.. 12:41 Dan Szymborski: I keep thinking Nova has turned the corner. 12:41 Dan Szymborski: If you guys recall, I named him as one of the most likely guys to crush his projection this year 12:42 Comment From Sgt. PepperWhy the hell would MLB put A-Gon on the final ballot and possibly take votes away from Puig. I mean two members of the Los Angeles Puigs on one team isn’t going to help. 12:43 Dan Szymborski: I doubt they gave that much thought 12:43 Comment From Steal this Handlebest pro wrestler current MLB player: Farnsworth. Have you seen this video?: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CC4QtwIwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D9mt0_0k40t4&ei=1OXaUcy1DqvC4AOk-IHICA&usg=AFQjCNHYH56RXAngK6O1Dg95VComT_-QHQ&sig2=vz_8yCmYsU-GAZdLQ_9arg&bvm=bv.48705608,d.dmg 12:43 Comment From TrevorHow good is Miguel Cabrera? 12:43 Dan Szymborski: Good enough that there are no proper adjuectives. 12:43 Comment From CrustyReally? Trout’s already at .394 wOBA and has been just over .400 this and last year. I’m hazarding a guess that almost everyone on the career .400+ wOBA started off slower than Trout. 12:44 Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but you’re doing a survivor analysis by only looking at the survivors. 12:44 Comment From SlickKunfu Panda could be Kamala revisited. 12:44 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think that gimmick woudl fly today. 12:44 Dan Szymborski: I’m still amazed that they could get away with it 25 years ago 12:45 Comment From Sgt. PepperWith Brett Lawrie coming back should we expect the Jays to surge to the stop of the standings in Red Bulls consumed above replacement? 12:45 Dan Szymborski: Red Bull! 12:45 Dan Szymborski: I can’t stand it. 12:45 Dan Szymborski: I’m excitable enough if you get my adrenalin going 12:46 Dan Szymborski: I’d like to see Lawrie play completely healthy 12:46 Comment From MaxamuzI missed Enos chat this week and I was mentioned 3x. Are you a fan of Lucas Duda? 12:46 Dan Szymborski: I am. He’s a guy that would most likely not have gotten much of achance in teh minors 20 years ago 12:46 Dan Szymborski: He’s a born DH though. 12:47 Dan Szymborski: He looks worse out there than Todd Hundley 12:47 Dan Szymborski: He’s worse out there in Kevin Reimer, who had great reflexes to start running when the ball hit the bat, but had a habit of running in the exact wrong direction 12:48 Comment From Mr. Wrestling IVHuh. Seems like I have to reexamine Matt Holliday’s forearms. 12:48 Dan Szymborski: http://diamonddiariesdotnet.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/holliday-forearms.jpg 12:48 Comment From GuestHow many more times does Bonderman have to puke all over his shoes before the Mariners call up 12:49 Dan Szymborski: He had a solid enough run that he’s worth looking at, though he was frigging awful against the Reds on saturday 12:50 Dan Szymborski: Generally speaking, I’d be more interested in signing a reclamation projection if you can get an option year, like the Cards do frequently with theirs 12:50 Dan Szymborski: Bonderman would be more interesting to give a chance to if they had, say, a $5 million option on him for 2014 12:51 Comment From Classy Freddie BlassieThink the O’s trade for Garza or anyone else? 12:51 Dan Szymborski: They’ve played the conservative card generally and I expect them to continue 12:51 Comment From TomWhat would it take for the Cards to swing a deal for Cliff Lee? 12:52 Dan Szymborski: What would really help is the Phillies realizing their position. 12:52 Dan Szymborski: They still kind of think they’re in contention. 12:53 Dan Szymborski: If Amaro does become a seller, I dont’ think he’s goign to give anybody bargains for Lee. The Cards will have to give up one of their young pitchers in all likelihood 12:53 Comment From In last placeCan you shed any light on how DMB uses Zips? I can’t explain the drastic underperformance of players like Pedroia, Desmond, and Goldschmidt. 12:53 Dan Szymborski: You’re going to have players underperform simply due to random chance. 12:54 Dan Szymborski: I was once in a DMB league and Clarence Mitchell had one of the best years 12:54 Comment From zackHave the cardinals finally realized the peter the kosmonaut isn’t good? 12:54 Dan Szymborski: I hope so. I still think they have this idea in the back of their minds that Kozmic Pete showed enough last fall to be better than he is, but I think the realization is setting in that he’s simply not a starter. 12:55 Comment From Nash100 WAR is an awful lot…Pujols was the most dominant hitter in baseball for a decade, and he’s still “only” at 86.7 for his career and slowing down. 12:55 Dan Szymborski: Yeah. Great players have more nasty surprises than pleasant ones because they’re so high. 12:56 Dan Szymborski: If you’re on top of Everest, you’re far more likely to fall down than fall up! 12:56 Dan Szymborski: Is there any surprise on the top of a mountain that’s *good*? 12:56 Comment From GSonCan someone put a hurtin on Mad Max Scherzer and are the Indians the team to do it?.. 12:57 Dan Szymborski: I love the Silver Hammer! 12:57 Dan Szymborski: It especially makes me glad as I talked him and Darvish up all winter. 12:57 Dan Szymborski: I’m having a better-than-average year with Players That I’m Obsessed With 12:58 Dan Szymborski: I actually have $200 on Scherzer winning the Cy Young (from one of my prop player bet pieces on ESPN this spring) 12:58 Comment From Mr. Wrestling IVDammit Dan, I thought of that Ben Grieve pun before I read your response. 12:58 Dan Szymborski: See, as the moderator, I can TOTALLY STEAL ALL YOUR JOKES AND NOBODY CAN PROVE IT~! 12:58 Dan Szymborski: Though i swear I thought of Ben Grieve first 12:58 Comment From LarryA2013 World series on the line, who do you want closing the game for you? 12:58 Dan Szymborski: Mo. Winning is fun, but winning with the storybook ending even funner. 12:59 Dan Szymborski: And people still don’t hit his cutter. 12:59 Comment From GuestSame question for Colby Lewis. Wasting my time? 12:59 Dan Szymborski: He’s speculative. He’s worth stashing, but not so much that you should worry about dorpping if something more itneresting comes your way 12:59 Comment From KevinRegarding Machado, his bat seems to have cooled off after a blazing start. Should we expect some of his doubles to turn into homers in future seasons, or is what we see now what we can expect (not that it isn’t good)? 12:59 Dan Szymborski: Usualloy some of them turn into homers, though this tends to be overrated a bit. 1:00 Dan Szymborski: His OPS+ is around 120, which really is more reasonable expectation 1:00 Comment From ShaunWho ends up taking AL MVP, Cabrera or Davis? 1:01 Dan Szymborski: As terrific as Crush has been, I think Cabrera’s the default choice 1:01 Comment From DanWhy are the Tigers perpetual underachievers? 1:01 Dan Szymborski: They have amazing front-line talent, but they’re always weaker at something than the average person realizes 1:01 Comment From BrandonPuig seems pretty similar to Jeff Francoeur when comparing their first seasons. 1:02 Dan Szymborski: Frenchy didn’t torch the minors 1:02 Comment From BartWho would you start at 1B going forward, Hosmer or Moss? 1:02 Dan Szymborski: Hosmer 1:02 Comment From Tim E.A question that would have been laughed at before this season: Who will have the better career, Moore or Corbin? 1:03 Dan Szymborski: I still think Moore has more upside, but Corbin on average will have the better career 1:03 Comment From GuestIs Smoak catching fire? 1:03 Dan Szymborski: Smoak’s been actually good lately, not just not-so-crappy 1:04 Comment From bdhudsonHas an active MLB player ever been charged with murder? 1:04 Dan Szymborski: Julio Machado 1:04 Dan Szymborski: And Urbina was at least charged with attempted 1:05 Comment From Baron Von WafflesParra, an ASG snub or no? 1:05 Dan Szymborski: Not for me – I don’t really look as the ASG as simply “Best First Half guys” 1:06 Dan Szymborski: the ASG voting isn’t even designed well to reward Best First Half guys 1:06 Dan Szymborski: If you vote at every opportunity, April homers are going to be part of the voting “resume” many more times than a June home run 1:07 Comment From ChrisWhats your favorite old school baseball player name? 1:07 Dan Szymborski: If you mean current old school, Buster Posey has the name of a silent film star 1:07 Dan Szymborski: old timers, you have Vinegar Bend Mizell 1:07 Dan Szymborski: Bristol Robotham Lord 1:08 Dan Szymborski: not making that up 1:08 Dan Szymborski: And William van Winkle “Chicken” Wolf 1:08 Dan Szymborski: Oil Can Boyd was a great classic-styled name 1:08 Comment From Keeper? I hardly know herWhat do you think of the Twins circa 2015? Do you think they will be a serious power with all the talent they have? 1:09 Dan Szymborski: They *could* be, but I’m not sold yet. I still think they’re in kind of the late 90s/00s O’s rut where they think they’re clsoer to relevance where they are 1:09 Comment From Keeper? I hardly know herIs there any god the Phillies can pray to to fix their farm system? 1:09 Dan Szymborski: Any god that would inspire Amaro to retire and go on a pilgramage 1:09 Dan Szymborski: pilgrimage 1:09 Comment From Keeper? I hardly know herCan we start a letter writing campaign to convince the Phillies that they are sellers? 1:10 Comment From DanNow that it’s past mid-season can we start pestering you on twitter for MLE’s and Zips for minor players? 1:10 Dan Szymborski: People already do! 1:10 Dan Szymborski: I can’t always reply quickly – I have my fingers in a lot of pies 1:11 Comment From BHShould we bet money on the Eric Hosmer power hitting streak (7 HRs in the last 15 games) to continue through 4 games at Yankee Stadium? 1:11 Dan Szymborski: DON”T JINX HIM! 1:11 Dan Szymborski: Every time I say nice things about him, he goes a month without an extra base hit 1:11 Dan Szymborski: So for Hosmer’s sake, I say he’s a bad man who should not be on your fantasy team ever. 1:11 Dan Szymborski: Oh, on classic names, I forgot Urban Shocker 1:13 Dan Szymborski: You can use that name for so many things, a wrestler, a law enforcement weapon, a sexual position popularized in a series of gonzo city-based porn videos. The possibilities are endless. 1:13 Comment From Corey KlobberBrett Lawrie kinda resembles Christian of Edge & Christian 1:13 Dan Szymborski: He actually does a bit. 1:13 Comment From zackVernon wells is back to being Vernon wells isn’t he? 1:13 Dan Szymborski: Yup. He just compressed all his non-suck into a single month this time around 1:13 Comment From BenEveryone knows Jeff Locke isn’t as good as his 2 ERA. But just how far do you expect him to regress? 1:13 Dan Szymborski: I expect somewhere around 4 or so 1:14 Comment From Douglas Von WerterHamilton does not “chew tobacco”. He dips snuff. There’s actually a huge difference. 1:14 Dan Szymborski: I assume the basic concept is simialr. Nicotine delivery. 1:14 Dan Szymborski: I don’t have a lot of personal smoking knowledge other than cigars while golfing 1:15 Dan Szymborski: I was kind of disappointed that the peer pressure growing up wasn’t like those videos they show you in middle school 1:15 Dan Szymborski: You know, where those gangs of kids pressure you to smoke and you have shout SMOKERS ARE JOKERS! and run away and tell an adult 1:16 Dan Szymborski: In my experirence, it was more “Dan, you want a cigarette?” “Nope” and that was it 1:16 Dan Szymborski: Real let down. 1:16 Comment From GuestDan, Dan, he’s our man! If he can’t do it, noone can! 1:16 Dan Szymborski: Demonstrably untrue. I cannot have babies, yet the human race has persisted. 1:16 Comment From MikeDan – the Phillies are delusional because they have to be with their TV deal expiring at the end of next year. If they were to blow up the team it would cost them tens maybe even hundreds of millions of dollars. 5th worst run differential in baseball? No problem we are contenders! 1:16 Comment From BoIn your opinion, what’s the biggest wedge between the SABR community and traditionalists? 1:16 Dan Szymborski: First principles in a lot of cases. 1:17 Dan Szymborski: Traditionalist fans are actually the hardest to overcome. 1:17 Dan Szymborski: Baseball itself was actually the easiest – teams have quite the financial interest in evaluating players properly 1:18 Dan Szymborski: And I have to say, I’d have taken the opportunity to move more into mainstream media if I knew how generally welcoming most people are 1:18 Dan Szymborski: I was one of the 90s usenet guys, so I had a built-in distrust of media in general. 1:18 Dan Szymborski: But going on a 3 1/2 years now, i’ve never had an uncomfortable moment with any of the ESPN guys I interact with regularly that aren’t big stat guys 1:19 Comment From zackIs Duda worse than francoeur put there? 1:19 Dan Szymborski: Yes. 1:19 Dan Szymborski: A few more and I have to go! 1:19 Dan Szymborski: So this is the time for quick questions and random crazy questions. 1:19 Comment From Gila MonsterAre you worried about Kung Fu Panda? He has been truly awful since he returned from.the DL… 1:20 Dan Szymborski: Getting there. He’s been fug awful, looking lost out there. 1:21 Dan Szymborski: I think there’s value in letting him crush the PCL for a week. 1:21 Dan Szymborski: If he goes 3-for-30 there, at least you know something else is wrong 1:21 Comment From TreyBetter career: Machado or Lawrie, and is it close? 1:21 Dan Szymborski: Machado. 1:21 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s close – Lawrie’s not a shortstop (and Machado should still be one) 1:21 Comment From RedbeardAre the Giants in the Phillies denial boat also or is it just the division they are in? 1:22 Dan Szymborski: I think their competition is less stiff 1:22 Dan Szymborski: in the NL East, they’d need to be sllers too 1:22 Dan Szymborski: and there’s at least *some* upside in the pitchers. 1:22 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Phils are seriously underperforming their “true” ability 1:22 Comment From zackApparently there is serious interest in Michael young, who was one of the two worst players in baseball last year 1:23 Dan Szymborski: Young’s actually a not-terrible fit for a few teams. 1:23 Dan Szymborski: I think he’d actually be useful in New york 1:23 Comment From bdhudsonWho wins the NL Central? 1:23 Dan Szymborski: Cards 1:23 Comment From Steve$200 down on Scherzer? What odds did you get on that? 1:23 Dan Szymborski: 20-1 1:24 Dan Szymborski: It would be unfair to write a prop bet piece and not risk money. 1:25 Dan Szymborski: Stanton leading league in HRs at 13/2 not looking so good. Hamilton under .295, Hamilton under 31 HR looking good, Ruggiano under .290 BA looking good, Carter over 25.5 HR good, Darvish over 14.5 wins looking reasonable 1:26 Dan Szymborski: Ubaldo over 3.90 ERA looking good, Lincecum over 199.5 K looking iffy (30-40%?) 1:27 Dan Szymborski: I think I’ll get the Pence under .285 but lose Pence under 23.5 HR 1:27 Comment From bdhudsonAh I forgot about Ugueth!!! At any rate, thanks! 1:28 Dan Szymborski: One of the stranger cases, no doubt 1:28 Comment From dirckYogi was charged with butchering the English language and logic in a double murder . 1:28 Comment From bdhudsonExactly Dan – hence why Harper is an all-star while Desmond is going to lose the final vote 1:28 Comment From KyleWhy does this chat have to end? Have you ever considered doing a marathon chat?…One that woyld break all fantasy baseball records? 1:28 Dan Szymborski: Solo, I think about 2 hours of me is all that people can put up with 1:28 Dan Szymborski: But I did do 12 hours in a FanGraphs group chat 1:28 Dan Szymborski: and 8 hours in an ESPN group chat 1:29 Comment From Sgt. PepperI just want there to be a player named Old School Baseballman 1:29 Comment From Sgt. PepperWill there ever be a Szymborski in the MLB or are you representative of the gene pool? 1:29 Dan Szymborski: There has not, but Tom Szymborski was the closest, making it to AA. 1:30 Dan Szymborski: I’d really like there to be a Szymborski in MLB simply so that I can more easily get my name into MLB the Show for career mode. 1:30 Dan Szymborski: I always have to be “Dan Szuminski” pronounced 1:30 Dan Szymborski: Sony actually said they’d get to me, but they haven’t yet 1:30 Comment From DanPhenomenal Smith. The Only Nolan. Arlie Latham. Jack Glasscock. You slipping man… 1:31 Comment From juan pierres mustacheyou’d probably get more work done if you didn’t have your fingers in pies all the time 1:31 Dan Szymborski: But then I’d have to get a whole new, slimmer wardrobe 1:31 Comment From GregoryDon’t look now but Justin Smoak is hitting like a league-average 1B according to wRC+ 1:31 Comment From GregorySmoak wRC+ is 120, qualified AL firstbasemen are 113 on average while major league 1B average is 109. 1:31 Comment From RKPuig: I wouldn’t call 60 games torching the minors. 1:31 Dan Szymborski: It wasn’t a *long* period, but he torched when he was there 1:31 Comment From SadwickI don’t think any videos shown in middle school have ever been, even remotely, representative of reality. 1:32 Comment From Sgt. PepperOne of these days someone is going to accidentally omit a space and hyperlink to some really nasty porn. 1:32 Dan Szymborski: I do generally click before I post them! 1:33 Dan Szymborski: There’s an old BTF meme in tricking people into viewing madeline albright pictures 1:33 Comment From Big Boy Prambergerbest cold cut sans bread…i say salami (preferably wrapped around some provolone) 1:33 Dan Szymborski: speck 1:33 Comment From Michael ScarnZIPs has Chris Davis for a .366 wOBA ROS, seems a little low doesn’t it? 1:33 Dan Szymborski: I think it is too. But I may have orange-and-black glasses. 1:34 Comment From dirckYankees will be moving that statue of Jeter back out to SS soon 1:34 Comment From RagsBristol Robot-Ham Lord’s nickname was “The Human Eyeball.” Thank you for enlightening me of his existence. 1:34 Comment From LarryASomeone gave you odds on Ruggiano under .290? 1:34 Dan Szymborski: That was the vegas over/under, believe it or not 1:34 Dan Szymborski: Jumped at that one 1:34 Comment From Steal this HandleRzepczynski seems close enough to szymborski to call it a day 1:34 Dan Szymborski: Szyuminski is a little closer pronunciation wise 1:34 Comment From Sgt. PepperMaybe you can get a player to change his name to Syzmborski in exchange for an optimistic Zips projection 1:35 Dan Szymborski: It would be depressing if we did this transaction and then he changed his name to the wrong spelling! 1:35 Comment From Dr. MetEver watch the gender norming video in high school? The one where they make a crazy feminist come out and say there are no physical differences between male and female firefighters strength? That blew my mind. 1:35 Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think so, but I didn’t pay much attention. 1:35 Dan Szymborski: I was one of the kids who sat at the back of the class goofing off most of the time, never doing homework, and counting on tests to get me good grades 1:36 Comment From Michael ScarnI had a crazy dream last night in which there was a 4 team trade between the Brewers, Dodgers, White Sox, and Yankees in which Ryan Braun ended up with the White Sox and Cano with the Dodgers, but I can’t remember who went to the other teams. Help me fill in the blanks! 1:36 Dan Szymborski: If it was my dream, it would be Charles Grodin and then you’d travel to italy on a hovercraft driven by the surviving members of Badfinger. 1:37 Dan Szymborski: Seriously, this is my most recent dream log entry 1:38 Dan Szymborski: Me and Antonio Vivaldi went to Five Guys to get burgers. I bought him a hamburger and he stabbed me. It was actually Tom Wilkinson and not Vivaldi, even though I know what Vivaldi looked like. 1:38 Comment From LBestwhat’s your favorite part working in media? 1:38 Dan Szymborski: I like all the social aspects. And working at home, I don’t have to put on pants. 1:39 Dan Szymborski: Some people in media grudgingly accept social media 1:39 Dan Szymborski: Me, sit me at a couch with some beer and I’ll talk to fans/readers/etc. all day and all night 1:39 Comment From SadwickPANTSLESS CHATS!!!!! This will not go over well with my co-workers. 1:39 Comment From NickBrewers get a sack of dirty laundry from the Yankees, White Sox send Dunn and any other old reclamation projects to New York 1:40 Dan Szymborski: Dunn wouldn’t actually be a bad fit in the park. 1:40 Comment From Nickyou’re a fucking pussy 1:40 Dan Szymborski: is that part of the question? I”m not sure how it connects. 1:40 Dan Szymborski: And on that note, time to log off for another week! 1:41 Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me and I hope to see you guys next week! 1:41 Dan Szymborski: As a usual reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections at FanGraphs, and at DSzymborski on Twitter. 1:42 Dan Szymborski: (and Steam – one of the nice things about working at home is lots of time for nerdy game playing) 1:42 Comment From GoGoMrPoPo“Dan Szymborski: Is there any surprise on the top of a mountain that’s *good*?” Umm, ask, I dunno, friggin MOSES, dude? 1:42 Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but Moses came down with a preachy list of rules! 1:42 Dan Szymborski: Before he went up, you could totally covet all the stuff you wanted.