I recently posed a question to 10 players. It was a question that doesn’t have an easy answer. Given the subjectivity involved, it doesn’t even have a right answer.
What is the best stat to evaluate pitchers?
Their responses are listed below in alphabetical order. Read the rest of this entry »
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.
1. Analysis from the Author’s Unsporting Friend
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
Analysis from the Author’s Unsporting Friend
The author, as he writes this, is presently sitting across a breakfast table from a former grad-school companion — one (a) who is a very good and talented friend, but (b) whose knowledge of baseball appears entirely confined to the end of Ronald Reagan’s second term in office.
What follows is a small collection of that same friend’s thoughts on the game, in the order which they (i.e. those thoughts) appeared:
On the 1988 World Series
“I hope Kirk Gibson’s leg is alright.”
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.
1. Largely Concerning Jenrry Mejia’s Start Today
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
Largely Concerning Jenrry Mejia’s Start Today
The Purpose of This Post
The purpose of this post is mostly to announce that Mets right-hander Jenrry Mejia both (a) has been excellent thus far in his return to the majors and (b) is pitching tonight (Saturday) at 8:40pm ET.
Regarding Mejia’s Performance to Date
Through four starts and over 24.1 innings, the 23-year-old Mejia has recorded strikeout and walk rates of 22.5% and 3.1%, respectively — marks which would place him 23rd and first overall, also respectively, among 91 qualified starters. His ground-ball rate of 57.5%, moreover, would be second-best among that same population.
A Haphazard Comparison Involving Jenrry Mejia
Here’s a haphazardly selected statistical comparison between Mejia and another pitcher (in this case, Adam Wainwright) whom the author noticed has a similar profile — in this case, featuring each pitcher’s defense-independent performance over the last month:
| Name | Team | IP | K% | BB% | GB% | vFA (pfx) | xFIP- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jenrry Mejia | Mets | 24.1 | 22.5% | 3.1% | 57.5% | 92.3 | 65 |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | 36.0 | 22.2% | 6.3% | 58.2% | 91.3 | 76 |
Mejia and Wainwright, Another Similarity
Beyond some statistical similarities over the past month, what Mejia and Wainwright also have in common is that each throws a fastball with cutting action about one-third of the time.
Action Footage: Jenrry Mejia’s Slider
Here’s action footage from Mejia’s August 8th start against Colorado of the right-hander striking out Corey Dickerson on an excellent slider:
Slower Action Footage: That Same Slider
And here’s slower action footage of that same pitch:
Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
Houston at Los Angeles AL | 21:05 ET
Dallas Keuchel (114.0 IP, 90 xFIP-, 0.4 WAR) faces Garrett Richards (93.2 IP, 88 xFIP-, 1.1 WAR).
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Radio, Perhaps?
Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.8.
Note: the following table is entirely sortable.
| Away | SP | Tm. | Gm. | Tm. | SP | Home | Time | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Cahill | AZ | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | PIT | Jeff Locke | 16:05 |
| Hiroki Kuroda | NYA | 5 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 8 | BOS | John Lackey | 16:05 |
| Joe Kelly | STL | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | CHN | Travis Wood | 16:05 |
| Chad Bettis* | COL | 8 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 3 | BAL | Bud Norris | 19:05 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LAN | 10 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 3 | PHI | Kyle Kendrick | 19:05 |
| Wade Davis | KC | 4 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | DET | Doug Fister | 19:08 |
| Chris Sale | CHA | 10 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 7 | MIN | Andrew Albers* | 19:10 |
| Mat Latos | CIN | 8 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | MIL | Yovani Gallardo | 19:10 |
| Matt Cain | SF | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 7 | MIA | Hend. Alvarez | 19:10 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 0 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 6 | TB | R. Hernandez | 19:10 |
| St. Strasburg | WAS | 10 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ATL | Mike Minor | 19:10 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 10 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 8 | TEX | Martin Perez | 20:05 |
| Jenrry Mejia | NYN | 10 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 3 | SD | Edinson Volquez | 20:40 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | CLE | 3 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | OAK | Dan Straily | 21:05 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 7 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 7 | LAA | Garrett Richards | 21:05 |
To learn how Pitcher and Team NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.
Hey there everybody, and welcome to whatever jokes I have left about the same swings at the same pitches we’ve been looking at for months. For the jokes I’ve already used, here’s a link to the whole Worst Of The Best series archive. With the wildest pitches, at least there tends to be a little variety. I don’t know precisely what to expect every week. With the wildest swings, almost invariably we end up with five swings at two-strike breaking balls in the dirt. That’s just the way it is, and of course all those swings are ill-advised, but part of the fun is supposed to be the surprise, and here we don’t really get many surprises. I don’t know what to do about that and it’s too late in 2013 to just up and change the methodology. On one hand, maybe it’s interesting to keep re-visiting the same stuff and seeing what ideas there might be. What’s still fresh and original after four and a half months? On the other hand, this is getting increasingly difficult to write about. Which, presumably, means it’s getting increasingly difficult to read. I am sorry. I am sorry. I’ll have to figure some stuff out before 2014.
So, yeah, here come five stupid terrible swings at pitches low that weren’t fastballs. They’re all from between August 9 – August 15, and they’re the swings at the pitches furthest from the center of the strike zone. I had to exclude a checked swing by A.J. Ellis that would’ve ranked No. 1. Also, DJ LeMahieu was called for a strike on a checked swing at a pitch-out during an attempted hit-and-run. That hits my exclusion double whammy, so you’re not going to see it, but I’m just happy to finally have encountered a busted hit-and-run. Now they’re not just theoretically excluded. Also the runner was safe. Padres!
Hey there, nerds, and welcome to another blog post about baseball. I have to assume you have virtually limitless options. You have elected to read about baseball instead of something more conventionally important, like finance or international politics. You’re not learning a new language, unless you’re trying to learn English, in which case I can recommend way better tutorials. Is this education, is this betterment, or is this fun? If this is just for fun, is it necessary? Have you improved yourself enough today to justify this use of your minutes? Couldn’t you be a much more well-rounded person? On the other hand, people bond over sports, and there’s nothing more important than interpersonal interaction and communication. What would we be without our bonds? What would so many of our bonds be without sports? Maybe this really is important, dammit, and here’s a whole archive of this series. Whatever, read everything. Maybe it really is the most important thing you can do from your desk.
We’re going to look at the last week’s wildest pitches, as the headline has already told you. It’s a PITCHf/x-based top five, from the August 9 – August 15 window. A few pitches that just missed the cut: Bryan Morris to Daniel Descalso on August 15, Bruce Rondon to Avisail Garcia on August 13, and Chris Rusin to Joey Votto on August 14. (Votto didn’t swing.) Additionally included below is a bonus, something that doesn’t qualify for the list but something that deserves to be presented. It is one of my favorite .gifs of the season. I’ll explain when I get there. I’m just about to get there! I’m getting there right now!
In case you didn’t know, Jacoby Ellsbury will become a free agent after this season. It’s presumed that he will take his services to the open market, and the Red Sox may not have much of an inside track on his services. Whether they do or not, there will be no shortage of teams who want the Madras, Ore., native. Earlier this week, Ken Rosenthal suggested the Mariners may be in the market for him. This got me thinking just how deep the pool of suitors may be. So let’s take a trip through Major League Baseball and reason through it, shall we?
Prior to the 2013 season, the White Sox system got a lot of grief for being one of the worst systems in baseball. It definitely has some glaring holes but there are some intriguing prospects that probably don’t get enough press — such as the southpaw below.
Scott Snodgress, LHP, White Sox: The Stanford alum signed his first pro contract after being selected by Chicago in the fifth round of the 2011 amateur draft. Snodgress has moved swiftly through the system and has spent the entire ’13 season pitching in Double-A.
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.
1. Most Improved Pitchers So Far, Per ZiPS
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
Most Improved Pitchers So Far, Per ZiPS
In May, the author examined those hitters and pitchers whose projections had most improved, up till that point, according to the Steamer and ZiPS systems. This week, in the Notes, we’re revisiting that effort.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, we looked at the most improved hitters according to Steamer and ZiPS, respectively. Yesterday, we considered here the most improved pitchers according to Steamer — where “most improved” is defined as “greatest decrease in projected ERA.” Below are the most improved pitchers according to ZiPS.
Note: pitchers who (a) are projected to make starts in fewer than 50% of their remaining appearances or (b) are absent currently from a major-league roster have been omitted from consideration. Other note: only pitchers who were assigned both a preseason and rest-of-season projection have been considered.
5. Derek Holland, LHP, Texas
ZiPS (Pre): 170.2 IP, 7.43 K/9, 2.90 BB/9, 1.42 HR/9, 4.53 ERA
ZiPS (RoS): 47.0 IP, 7.80 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, 1.11 HR/9, 4.02 ERA
Notes: Holland’s strikeout and walk rates this season are better, but not significantly better, than in past seasons. His ground-ball rate has actually decreased. What’s mostly improved for Holland is the rate at which fly balls have become home runs: the left-hander has recorded a 7.3% HR/FB this season, after a 15.2% mark last one.
| 11:47 |
: We’ll get started in 10-15 mins so get your prospect/rookie questions in now…
|
| 12:03 |
who has more of an impact next year, springer or lindor? |
| 12:04 |
: I’m going to go with Springer… if we’re talking about offensive impact. He’s going to have speed and power (but probably a low batting avg) while Lindor will provide most of his value on defense in the early going.
|
| 12:04 |
Robert Stephenson is making his first start in AA tonight. He looked great in his last start in the California League. Will you be watching tonight and how long until he could realistically be ready to pitch in the Majors in a rotation. |
| 12:05 |
: If I have a chance, I’ll tune in to MiLB tv and watch some of it… I would imagine he probably needs 3-5 months in AA/AAA before he’s ready.
|
| 12:05 |
Mike Olt: Starting 3B for CHC next year? Called up this year? |
Yes, this is Part II to a study that you probably haven’t read Part I to yet. Like a James Bond movie, you do not have to see the first one to be able to enjoy the next. Exactly like James Bond. To get the full background of my project, you can find Part I HERE in the Community Research Blog archives from earlier this season.
For those of you that choose not to look back, I am looking at the top 50 hitters in Major League Baseball from 2012 according to FanGraphs Batting Runs stats, with an eye on quantitatively measuring how they swing the bat. I hope to use this data to apply specifically to amateur players eligible to be drafted, and by extension any player that is an unknown in regards to how they will perform in American professional baseball. This project was designed to assist anyone who is unable to watch a player in person but wants to get an idea as to what kind of hitter he is through video.
