Ben and Sam talk about how the A’s are winning in an unusual way for a small-market team, then discuss why the Dodgers have been the exception to the trend of money not leading to wins.
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Episode 372
Derrick Goold is the championship beat writer of the Cardinals for the St. Louis Post Dispatch. He’s also the guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 46 min play time.)
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One time, and one time only, has a pitcher had the nerve to make Joey Votto pop up twice in the same game. One time has a pitcher simply looked like he had Joey Votto’s number. Back in September 2008, the Reds played the Marlins, and when Votto faced Ricky Nolasco the first time, he popped out. Later, when Votto faced Nolasco a second time, he popped out again. Later still, when Votto faced Nolasco a third time, he clubbed a dinger. Votto wouldn’t face Nolasco a fourth time.
By now, you must be aware that Joey Votto simply doesn’t hit infield pop-ups. We’ve written about it here a few times before, and other people have written about it in other places. People have asked Votto about it directly, and Votto has given thoughtful responses, as is his way. There might be something to be written about batted-ball data taking off like that, just as a sign of the times, but there’s no time for that today. Because yesterday, Joey Votto hit an infield pop-up. Facing Jeff Samardzija, Votto had his first official 2013 moment of weakness, relatively speaking.
I’d like to talk to you today about pitcher evaluation.
I don’t mean evaluation in the sense of determining a pitcher’s talent level, or evaluation in the sense of determining a pitcher’s future value — or even evaluation in the sense of determining a pitcher’s market value. I mean a pitcher’s past value. Or, perhaps, because value is so often misunderstood and misinterpreted, we’d be better off speaking in terms of contribution. That’s how do we determine the extent to which a player contributed to his team’s success (or failure)?
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.
1. Most Improved Hitters So Far, Per ZiPS
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
Most Improved Hitters So Far, Per ZiPS
In May, the author examined those hitters and pitchers whose projections had most improved, up till that point, according to the Steamer and ZiPS systems. This week, in the Notes, we’re revisiting that effort.
In yesterday’s edition: the league’s most improved hitters, according to Steamer — where “most improved” is defined as “greatest increase in wOBA projection.” Today: that same thing, but for ZiPS.
Note: only players with both a preseason and rest-of-season projection have been considered. Other note: any player either (a) presently absent from a major-league roster or (b) with fewer than 60 projected plate appearances remaining has been omitted from consideration.
5. Mike Carp, Cornerman, Boston
ZiPS (Pre): 506 PA, .239/.304/.394 (.286 BABIP), .305 wOBA, 97 wRC+
ZiPS (RoS): 105 PA, .274/.335/.471 (.331 BABIP), .350 wOBA, 117 wRC+
Notes: Owing to a switch in parks from Safeco to Fenway, Carp’s raw wOBA differential is greater proportionately than his wRC+ differential — which is what makes him fifth on this list, as opposed to second. Still, he’s been excellent for Boston. ZiPS, which is rather aggressive about integrating particularly low or high seasonal BABIPs into rest-of-season projections, appears to remain rather aggressive about integrating Carp’s rather high .410 BABIP into his rest-of-season projection.
| 11:42 |
: It’s Wednesday, so let’s go ahead and talk some baseball, or puppies, or baseball playing puppies? The queue is now open, and the chat will start in 15 minutes or so.
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| 12:00 |
Starlin Castro – obviously he’s not this bad, but the shine has kind of worn off, hasn’t it? |
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: Sometimes, it takes guys a while to develop, but yeah, at some point, Castro’s going to have to get better.
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| 12:01 |
I’m a Pirates fan, do you blame me for panicking every time they drop 3 or more games? |
| 12:01 |
: No, being a fan isn’t rational. Your team is good, and you shouldn’t worry too much.
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| 12:02 |
How many years before the White Sox are good again? They seem to be in full rebuild mode right now. |
Ostensibly, Kyle Lohse and I talked about the evolution of his approach last week before a game against the Giants. He showed me some grips and talked about how his arsenal has changed since he was in Minnesota. But — as it happens when you start talking about baseball’s intricacies — our conversation ended up straying into the economics of baseball, the psychology of the pitcher/hitter matchup, and even performance-enhancing drugs.
The Fringe Five is a weekly exercise (introduced in April) wherein the author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own heart to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.
Central to this exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe. The author recognizes that the word has different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of this column, however — and for reasons discussed more thoroughly in a recent edition of the Five — the author has considered eligible for the Five any prospect who was absent from all of three notable preseason top-100 prospect lists.
That said, it should also be noted that in cases where the collective enthusiasm regarding a player’s talent becomes very fevered — like how the enthusiasm collectively right now for Philadelphia third-base prospect Maikel Franco is very fevered, for example — that will likely affect said player’s likelihood of appearing among the Five, given that the purpose of the series, at some level, is to identify prospects who are demonstrating promise above what one might expect given their current reputations within the prospect community.
With that said, here are this week’s Fringe Five:
Mookie Betts, 2B, Boston (Profile)
If Mookie Betts were literally on fire, that would both (a) be terrible and (b) require the immediate attention of emergency services. Fortunately — for all of us, for Betts himself — he’s just figuratively on fire. By way of illustration, consider: in 28 plate appearances since last week’s edition of the Five, Betts has recorded two home runs, a 6:2 walk-to-strikeout ratio, and six stolen bases on as many attempts. Overall, Betts has posted walk and strikeout rates of 10.6% and 11.4%, respectively, four home runs, and a 100% success rate on his 15 stolen-base attempts over 32 games and 132 plate appearances — this, from what appears to the 11th-youngest player in the High-A Carolina league.
I recently posed a question to nine players and three coaches. It was a question that doesn’t have an easy answer. Given the subjectivity involved, it doesn’t even have a right answer.
Should reputation and “fame” play a meaningful role in Hall of Fame voting, or should it be based almost entirely on statistics?
Their responses are listed below in alphabetical order. Read the rest of this entry »
Ben and Sam answer listener emails about baseball with clockwise bases, whether in-game managerial moves help or hurt, who pays players who get released, and more.
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