Archive for December, 2013

Q&A: Brent Strom, Houston Astros Pitching Coach

When the Houston Astros hired Brent Strom to be their new pitching coach, they didn’t bring on board an old dog. The 65-year-old former big-league lefthander is amenable to learning new tricks. In an organization with an analytical bent, it could be no other way.

For the past seven seasons, Strom has been a part of The Cardinal Way. As the club’s minor league pitching coordinator, he helped nurture many of young arms that helped lead St. Louis to the World Series. His player development experience will be helpful in Houston, where there is no shortage of young arms.

This is Strom’s second tenure in the Astros’ organization. He was a minor league pitching instructor from 1989-1995, and the club’s big league pitching coach in 1996. He was Kansas City’s pitching coach in 2000 and 2001.

Strom — who assumed his new position on October 22 — talked about the pitching philosophy he brings with him from St. Louis, and the importance of keeping up with the times. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 341: Hot Stovepocalypse

Ben and Sam discuss the year’s busiest day for big baseball news.


Yankees Sign Jacoby Ellsbury, Bet On Speed Aging Well

You’re going to hear Carl Crawford’s name a lot over the next 24 hours. Carl Crawford was a speed-and-defense outfielder heading into his 30s and the Red Sox gave him $142 million over seven years, only to see the deal become an albatross almost immediately. Everyone who was skeptical of aging speed-and-defense outfielders was instantly vindicated. Everyone who is still skeptical of aging speed-and-defense outfielders is going to instantly point to the Carl Crawford deal when they hear that the Yankees have agreed to pay Jacoby Ellsbury $153 million over the next seven years.

Crawford is a data point in their favor, absolutely. He was a similar player to Ellsbury, and he got a similar contract to Ellsbury, and it didn’t turn out to be a very good idea. Crawford is absolutely evidence that this contract could be a big mistake. Crawford is a reminder that big free agent deals often turn out badly. But if you’re going to use Carl Crawford as the sole data point in your belief that players like Ellsbury are bad investments, you’re simply ignoring the fact that history doesn’t actually agree with you.

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Astros, Rockies Bet on Different Kinds of Potential

When you’re a bad team, you might want to sign good free agents to try to get better. A tricky part is getting those good free agents to want to play for your bad team. Teams don’t get much worse than the current Houston Astros, and according to recent reports, they’ve tried with no success to lure quality players from the market. Thankfully for bad teams, free agency isn’t the only way to improve by addition. Players have to play for you if you trade for them, and later on Tuesday, the Astros picked up Dexter Fowler from the Rockies, at the cost of Jordan Lyles and Brandon Barnes. The Rockies will also send a player to be named later, but I doubt that that will be the interesting part.

Immediately, it seems a bit backwards. Some things we know: at present, the Astros are dreadful, far more dreadful than the Rockies are. Fowler is already getting expensive, and he has two remaining years of team control. Lyles is 23, and he has four. Barnes is 27, and he has five. You’d think it would be the Astros trying to acquire longer-term security, but I think this actually makes more sense for Houston than it does for Colorado. Even if the Astros still aren’t close to contending, it’s never a bad idea to add what you think might be undervalued.

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FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 12/3/13

6:11
Paul Swydan: HI Everybody!

Soooooooooooooooo….anything happen in the baseball world today?

My goodness. Today there was a veritable bonanza of baseball things. Let’s talk about them, shall we? Jeff Z and I will be here at 9 pm ET to talk all about it. Until then, I will put up some polls (polls at bottom of transcript), and you can pop some questions in the queue.

Also, don’t forget to buy The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2014, on sale now!

See you at 9!

9:03
Paul Swydan: Hi guys, sorry, I was on the phone. Let’s light this candle!

9:03
Comment From JonCor
In terms of all the moves, why today?

9:03
Paul Swydan: I wish I had a good answer for this. I have absolutely, positively, no idea.

9:04
Paul Swydan: Jeff will be along in a sec.

9:04
Comment From Pat
Considering their abundance of young arms, should the Mets consider trading low-upside, but steady Dillon Gee to fill their OF/SS hole?

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Tigers Add Joe Nathan To Uncertain Bullpen

Since Monday night, the Tigers have gone to considerable lengths to remake a pitching staff that ranked among the game’s best in 2013. On Monday, it was the confounding trade that sent Doug Fister to Washington for some stocking stuffers; on Tuesday, reports surfaced that they’d signed closer Joe Nathan to a two-year deal, after reportedly being rebuffed by Brian Wilson.

Dave went over the Fister deal already, so we won’t rehash it here, except to point out that it’s quite likely that Drew Smyly will shift from the bullpen to the rotation to replace Fister. At the moment, that means the Detroit bullpen, a source of so much concern last year, has added Nathan via free agency and Ian Krol in the Fister trade, while subtracting Smyly and free agents Joaquin Benoit and Jose Veras. They now have a closer, but do they have a better bullpen? Read the rest of this entry »


Rays, Red Sox Take Different Paths to Similar Value

Every team in the American League East came into the offseason with unsettled situations behind the plate. The Orioles have been trying to figure out whether nor not to deal Matt Wieters. The Yankees made a huge addition by adding Brian McCann. The Blue Jays just made their own improvement by replacing J.P. Arencibia with Dioner Navarro. That left the Red Sox and Rays, each of whom already had a nifty backstop, but a nifty backstop incapable of handling the bulk of the workload. That is, after the Rays re-signed Jose Molina, anyway. Tuesday, the teams have made their additions, with the Sox picking up A.J. Pierzynski and the Rays dealing for Ryan Hanigan. Jarrod Saltalamacchia’s still looking for a home, but he’ll at least be going to a different division.

Initially, this was going to be a straight-up comparison of Pierzynski and Hanigan, since they have few things in common, but one important thing shared. Then reality made things more complicated, with Hanigan being part of a three-team trade, and with Hanigan agreeing to a three-year contract. No longer is this just about 2014. But despite the complicating circumstances, I do still think it’s worth examining why Boston and Tampa Bay did what they did, and how the moves are pretty alike.

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A’s Trade Interesting Bat for Fantastic Glove

This off-season is nuts. Every day, there are interesting moves, including some pretty fun trades that just go beyond the normal prospects-for-rent-a-veteran template that we’re all accustomed to. Today, there have been a bunch of moves, but perhaps none is more interesting from a pure baseball perspective than a swap of non-household names between the Rangers and A’s.

The move shapes up like this: the A’s trade outfield prospect Michael Choice and infield prospect Chris Bostick to the Rangers for outfielder Craig Gentry and reliever Josh Lindblom. Bostick and Lindblom are secondary pieces of some potential value, but this deal is mostly about Choice and Gentry. And the differing skillsets from those two players makes this a pretty fun challenge trade.

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The Case of the Proven Closer and the Moneyball A’s

Most rumors, of course, are nonsense, or at least things that won’t come true. We all know this to be the case, but a lot of the time, it’s difficult to tell from the outside what’s part of the signal and what’s part of the noise. Then there are the rumors that are just immediately, obviously ridiculous. This is the way I choose to feel about the chatter that the A’s have strong interest in Nelson Cruz — Cruz looks like the opposite of a free-agent bargain, he’s going to cost a draft pick, and the A’s have a full outfield. There’s no part of my rational mind that would link Nelson Cruz to Billy Beane’s ballclub. Not one bit of it seems logical, so the rumor’s dismissed.

I had a similar reaction when I first saw word that the A’s were interested in trading for Jim Johnson. Johnson, like Cruz, has his uses, but he’s a Proven Closer due to make eight figures next season. Closers tend to be the most overpaid players on the market, so I didn’t see Beane falling for this, in reality. Then Beane actually traded for Johnson, giving the Orioles Jemile Weeks and a little bit else. The A’s deliberately acquired an eight-figure Proven Closer, and now the more I think about how it happened, the more I see how it makes some sense after all.

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Belated Last Chance to Win a Free Copy of THT 2014!

So, I was supposed to run the final trivia contest for The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2014 last Wednesday, but I forgot. So I pledged on Twitter to run it yesterday, but again, I forgot. So, today, I finally present this year’s final trivia contest. Sorry it took me so long!

In case you haven’t heard, The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2014 is now available to purchase on ye ole internets. You can find my post on the book here, Dave Studeman’s post on the book here, and listen to Carson Cistulli’s FanGraphs Audio episode with Studes here.

After you’re done consuming those posts, you can buy it from Createspace (where we get the biggest cut of sales), from Amazon (in both print and for the Kindle) and from Barnes & Noble on the Nook.

Because we’re giving folk, and since it’s the beginning of the holiday season and all, we want to give you a chance to win yourself a free copy of the book. So today, tomorrow and Wednesday, we’ll be running a trivia contest based on one of the articles in the book. The first person to post the correct answer in the comments will win a free physical copy of the book (sorry, no free Kindle or Nook versions). It’s just that simple!

Today’s question comes from the article entitled “Revisiting The Book’s ‘Mano a Mano’ Chapter,” by Steve Staude. In it, Staude explores the batter-pitcher confrontation in great detail. One of the ways he does so is to create “families” of pitchers, based on their velocity and breaking ball percentage. The grid he constructed has 18 “families,” with one pitcher designated as the head of each family. Here is the grid, with 10 names removed from it:

Staude grid

Cutting to the chase, the question before you, dear reader, is this:

Can you accurately name at least five of the 10 remaining “family” heads?

Phrase your answers as such: Low Velocity, Mid Breaking Ball% = Barry Zito

If no one gets five correct, I’ll revisit and determine whose guesses are the best. I’ll consider any answer I get before the FanGraphs After Dark chat tonight.

Good luck!