Archive for 2013

Daily Notes: Public Service Announcement re: Rick Porcello

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Public Service Announcement Regarding Rick Porcello
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Public Service Announcement Regarding Rick Porcello
The Purpose of This PSA, Generally
The purpose of this public service announcement, like most public service announcements, is to raise awareness about an important issue in today’s society.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Worst of the Best: The Week’s Wildest Swings

Hello there, children, we are all children. From one child to another, I would like to welcome you to the second part of the ninth edition of The Worst Of The Best. Found here is the second part of the eighth edition, from last Friday. Found here is every post in the category, from the beginning to the present. Right now, this post isn’t in that section, as I write it. Right now, this post is in that section, as you read it. So, the section has changed, the section has grown. Does that mean the section is alive? According to some definitions, yes, and according to other definitions, no, the section does not possess life, that’s ridiculous. I am pleased to answer this question for you.

Earlier this Friday, we examined the wildest pitches from the past week, and now we’ll examine the wildest swings, between May 31 and June 6. Just as the wildest pitches are the pitches furthest from the center of the strike zone, the wildest swings are those swings at pitches furthest from the center of the strike zone. It seems this past week was a little less wild than usual, but that doesn’t mean we don’t still have a top-five list of hitters looking like idiots, based on the PITCHf/x data and of course their own on-field actions. There are no checked swings, and there are no swings during hit-and-runs. Those swings don’t count and that’s the last word. Incidentally, two weeks ago I provided two bonuses. Last week, there was one bonus. This week, zero bonuses. What have we learned about bonuses? They are bonuses, and by definition they are not usual. Don’t be greedy. Now please enjoy this list, at no charge to you.

Read the rest of this entry »


Patience Pays Off for Daniel Nava, Red Sox

You’ve probably heard the Daniel Nava story before. He went undrafted out of college, was initially cut by the independent Chico Outlaws, and when the Red Sox did sign him, they only paid $1. (Boston would eventually pay $1,499 more). Three years later, Nava broke into the majors — but not for good. Even devout Red Sox fans would be forgiven if they’d forgotten Nava’s name heading into 2012, and he has never been part of Boston’s Plan A. But he’s waited for his turn — and so far this season, he’s been one of baseball’s best hitters.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Worst of the Best: The Week’s Wildest Pitches

Hey there, you, and welcome to the first part of the ninth edition of The Worst Of The Best. This right here is a link to the first part of the eighth edition, from last Friday. This right here is a link to the series section, where you can find all of the posts from the beginning. You should know that the federal government has been secretly monitoring this series, including the posts and all of the comments underneath. But because of the .gifs I unwittingly managed to lock up all their computers so there’s a chance I may have destroyed the whole program. I’m sorry, or, you’re welcome, depending. Let’s not get into that! Leave your feelings on that matter on some other blog, like NotGraphs.

Here is where we talk about wild pitches, that weren’t officially “wild pitches” but that were pitches really far from the center of the strike zone. They’re not necessarily pitches that were really far from the target, but I can’t measure that so we make do with a bunch of two-strike breaking balls. It’s a PITCHf/x top-five that excludes intentional balls for obvious reasons, and pitches just missing the cut this week include one from Antonio Bastardo to Rickie Weeks, one from Justin De Fratus to Logan Schafer, and one from Dane De La Rosa to Jason Castro. Also, others. There are .gifs, and you know that by now, and I don’t know how to make them load faster, and the list is starting, and if this takes forever to load, it’s right to be frustrated. It’s right to be frustrated. Just know that I already know.

Read the rest of this entry »


Kelly Johnson’s Return to Career-Year Form

Despite being in fourth place at the moment, the Rays are obviously in the playoff mix, only four games back of the AL East leading Red Sox. Indeed, Tampa Bay has been in the mix pretty much every season since 2008. Their ability to prevent runs has been what has received the most attention the last few seasons, as they seemingly add an above-average starter from the minors every year, but their hitting has not been as bad as the perception. True, the only recognizable offensive star since the departure of Carl Crawford has been Evan Longoria, but the Rays have still managed to be in the top half of the American League in wRC+ since then.

This season, the Rays have a collective 107 wRC+, their best since 2009. Having Longoria healthy and hitting has been a big plus, of course, but as in past seasons, it is surprising performances from apparent stopgaps such as the previously-discussed James Loney — who currently leads the team with a 151 wRC+ — which have provided the needed boosts. Loney’s contribution thus far has been probably the most surprising, but almost equally as significant for the 2013 Rays has been the hitting of second-baseman-turned-left-fielder Kelly Johnson, who seems to be regaining the form he displayed in a previous out-of-nowhere career year for Arizona in 2010.

Read the rest of this entry »


Mark Appel and a New Kind of Leverage

You’re going to see a lot of college seniors taken in the middle rounds of the draft today, as teams look to save bonus pool money in order to take a shot on an over-slot pick that they either drafted yesterday or might look to take at a certain spot today. College seniors often sign for a relative pittance since they don’t have any real alternatives other than to sign for what they’re offered. While college juniors can always threaten to go back to school, seniors don’t have a stick with which to negotiate, so their price falls accordingly.

That is the kind of leverage — the pressure created by having an alternative option — that most people are familiar with, at least in terms of how things work in MLB. The secondary path forces teams to negotiate a fair price, and players without a valid alternative sign for a deep discount. That theory holds in some cases, but Mark Appel is about to demonstrate that leverage can come in other forms as well.

Read the rest of this entry »


Marc Hulet Prospects Chat – 6/7/13

11:46
Marc Hulet: Hi all,

I’m filling the Friday prospect chat hole this week with Mike Newman unavailable. Obviously the Major League draft is on the brain today with the first two rounds going last night and the remainder of the draft picking up again today at 1 pm eastern. I haven’t been following the draft coverage as much this year as in the past but we can talk about the draft in generalities, if you’d like. For more information about last night’s events, please check out Al’s 4.5 hour FanGraphs chat…

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/al-skorupa-fangraphs-draft-chat-6613/

If you have any prospect questions, please feel free to ask… For background on me, here is my offseason work that included the site’s Top 100 list and individual Top 15 prospect lists..

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-top-100-prospects-2/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-top-15-prospects-lists-a-recap/

If you want to expand from talking about prospects, we can also chat about this year’s MLB rookie class… I recently wrote about my monthly recap of the Top 5 rookies in the Majors, over at Prospect Insider…

http://prospectinsider.com/view/rookie-watch:-miller-leads-charge/

I’m opening up the chat now. We’ll start at noon but you can post your questions beginning now.

11:56
Comment From Milhouse
Have you seen Carson Kelly live? Thoughts? I know he’s young.

11:57
Marc Hulet: We’ll officially get started…. I have not seen Kelly live but I’ve seen video and have also spoken to talent evaluators who are high on the young hitter. He’s struggling a bit but is still just 18 in the Midwest League… the org is very high on him.

11:57
Comment From Milhouse
Has your opinion of Daniel Robertson changed from the offseason? Is he a guy I should be trying to acquire even if it’s a slight overpay?

11:58
Marc Hulet: I’m surprised he’s been as steady at SS as he has been… a lot of people expected him to become a permanent 3B right away. I’m very happy with the early returns.

11:59
Comment From Hunter Pences Thorax
Astros GM Jeff Luhnow recently said George Springer is staying in the minors. Is this a money thing, or a Springer thing, or both?

Read the rest of this entry »


Daily Notes: To Miami’s Credit, Very Briefly

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Miami at New York NL, 19:10 ET
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Miami at New York NL, 19:10 ET
Introduction
It is very much the case that the Miami Marlins, as an organization, are prone to damnable fiscal maneuvers and deserve censure on those grounds. It is also very much the case that, while an equally hopeless club (in terms of available present talent) like the Houston Astros entered the season with rather an obvious commitment to youth, that the Marlins gave contracts and starting spots to Casey Kotchman and Juan Pierre and Placido Polanco.

Indeed, while that aged triumvirate remains employed by the club, one is compelled, in the interest of fairness, to note that there are other pieces who’ve gotten regular playing time of late and who are interesting for one or the other reason. Below are three of those players, none of whom began the season on the major-league roster.

Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 219: The Mock Draft Mystery/Joey Votto’s Future/Scouts and Espionage/The New-Look Royals Lineup

Ben and Sam discuss the mystery of mock drafts, how Joey Votto might age, the kinds of information scouts can trust, and the Royals’ lineup evolution.


Al Skorupa FanGraphs Draft Chat – 6/6/13

5:27
Al Skorupa: Welcome to the chat! Please leave your questions and we’ll be starting around 6:30. In the meantime I’ve got some videos for you related to the latest rumors from my buddies Steve Fiorindo and Tyler Bullock.

5:27
E Tyler Bullock:

5:27
Steve Fiorindo:

5:59
Al Skorupa: I wanted to discuss some draft basics before we begin. First off, let’s remember that the baseball amateur draft is a different creature than the other pro sports drafts. We hear a lot about “best player available,” but this draft has never really been about that – it’s about the best mix of value and talent. Cost is a major part of the equation. This isn’t teams being cheap – this is about how to best use limited resources on some… less than stable investments. As a logical extension of that, prior to the new slotting could a team have gone crazy and spent four times what every other team spent and got great results? Yes… but at a very poor ROI. Projecting teenagers and young men physically and in terms of how their skills would develop is HARD. Just like the people around you in your life when you were young there are an infinite number of variable that will determine their success or failure in life. This is very, very far from an exact science and that’s why I have a tremendous amount of respect for amateur scouts and the near impossible job they’re given.

6:03
Al Skorupa: I also think a common misconception is that there is a real consensus out there on players. There really isn’t much of a consensus. Scouts differ all the time on players. It’s pretty wide open. Watching some of these guys on the Cape last year who will be taken early tonight and I’d come across cross checkers who would tell me a guy nearly everyone projects for the first round “can’t hit” and they wouldn’t take him. Teams look for different things. Individual scouts look for different things and the process is nowhere as exact as many people imagine.

6:05
Al Skorupa: That brings me to… myself. Who am I and why is it worth you reading my chat? Well, I write about prospects for Fangraphs and you can find my work other places – primarily bullpenbanter.com, a site I started with fellow FG prospects writer JD Sussman and a few other talented writers. I do a lot of amateur coverage over there and I’m glad to bring some of it over to FG since I enjoy watching amateurs (as opposed to minor leaguers – who I also enjoy watching!).

Read the rest of this entry »