Marc Hulet Prospects Chat – 6/7/13

Marc Hulet: Hi all,

I’m filling the Friday prospect chat hole this week with Mike Newman unavailable. Obviously the Major League draft is on the brain today with the first two rounds going last night and the remainder of the draft picking up again today at 1 pm eastern. I haven’t been following the draft coverage as much this year as in the past but we can talk about the draft in generalities, if you’d like. For more information about last night’s events, please check out Al’s 4.5 hour FanGraphs chat…

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/al-skorupa-fangraphs-draft-chat-6613/

If you have any prospect questions, please feel free to ask… For background on me, here is my offseason work that included the site’s Top 100 list and individual Top 15 prospect lists..

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-top-100-prospects-2/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-top-15-prospects-lists-a-recap/

If you want to expand from talking about prospects, we can also chat about this year’s MLB rookie class… I recently wrote about my monthly recap of the Top 5 rookies in the Majors, over at Prospect Insider…

http://prospectinsider.com/view/rookie-watch:-miller-leads-charge/

I’m opening up the chat now. We’ll start at noon but you can post your questions beginning now.

Comment From Milhouse
Have you seen Carson Kelly live? Thoughts? I know he’s young.

Marc Hulet: We’ll officially get started…. I have not seen Kelly live but I’ve seen video and have also spoken to talent evaluators who are high on the young hitter. He’s struggling a bit but is still just 18 in the Midwest League… the org is very high on him.

Comment From Milhouse
Has your opinion of Daniel Robertson changed from the offseason? Is he a guy I should be trying to acquire even if it’s a slight overpay?

Marc Hulet: I’m surprised he’s been as steady at SS as he has been… a lot of people expected him to become a permanent 3B right away. I’m very happy with the early returns.

Comment From Hunter Pences Thorax
Astros GM Jeff Luhnow recently said George Springer is staying in the minors. Is this a money thing, or a Springer thing, or both?

Marc Hulet: Springer has some swing and miss issues at AA so there is room for improvement… there really is no rush in promoting the prospect… the org isn’t going to win in the next couple of years so they might as well delay his arrival, ensuring they have him under contract and in his prime once the club is ready to compete.

Comment From Trey
Brad Miller – Seattle Opening Day SS in 2014? .280/15/15 guy in the majors?

Marc Hulet: I’m still undecided on Miller’s future potential. I am cautiously optimistic he can be a regular at the big league level.

Comment From the Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
Chris Archer or Alex Colome first to become a fixture in the TB rotation?

Marc Hulet: I would think Archer will be the guy given his head start, but the command/control and inconsistency issues are a concern.

Comment From David
What’s been the cause for Cesar Puello’s offensive explosion at AA? Did he make any significant adjustments to his swing that suggests these gains are sustainable or is it just a hot streak?

Marc Hulet: I’ve heard he’s made adjustments at the plate but I haven’t seen him play this year yet to make a definitive statement.

Comment From Matt
After stuggling a bit in AA, Castellanos is starting to heat up in AAA. He is only 21 and excelling in AAA. Has his ceiling increased in your opinion and is he ready now?

Marc Hulet: I don’t think he’s quite ready. I would have preferred him to stick at 3B but obviously there is a pretty big roadblock there right now. The biggest thing that could hurt his overall value is the lack of plus power given his position.

Comment From Hunter Pences Thorax
Do we really have to wait until 2014 for Byron Buxton?

Marc Hulet: Well, you can enjoy him in the minors right now… It’s fun following prospects for a few years until they reach the majors. I actually kind of feel cheated when a prospect makes it to the majors in 1-2 years… lol

Buxton probably isn’t going to see the majors until late 2015 at the earliest.

Comment From Guest
Which two of the following Rangers prospects would you want from a fantasy prospective? Gallo, Brinson, Sardinas, Odor, N. Williams

Marc Hulet: Maybe Brinson and Williams… Big Brinson fan and warming up to Williams although his approach at the plate needs some work.

Comment From Trey
How many minor league games would you estimate that you see throughout the season? What area/leagues do you see most often?

Marc Hulet: With the benefit of travelling to places like spring training, the AFL and using MiLB.tv, I can see a ton of prospects and ton of games. I probably see somewhere in the range of 100 games a year, and partial videos of approximately 200-300 quality prospects a year — mostly as research for the Top 15s and 100.

Comment From James
What are the Rays waiting for with Wil Myers?

Marc Hulet: He’s holding his own in AAA but hardly overpowering the competition… They’re probably waiting for him to force their hand. At this point, he’s not ready to be an impact player, or a difference-maker….

Comment From Guest
Thoughts on Josh Bell after playing healthy for a few months? When does he move up?

Marc Hulet: Like Myers, Bell isn’t exactly tearing up his level. I’d like to see him dominate for a little while….

Comment From Eric
Marc, how do you feel the Pirates did yesterday? Where would Meadows + McGuire fit in their system if they sign?

Marc Hulet: Meadows probably slots in behind Polanco and Hanson… while I’ll wait to see more of Wyatt Mathisen and McGuire before I decide who has the better ceiling… great, deep system in Pittsburgh, though.

Comment From Sagar
Do you think it was a mistake by the Cubs to pick Soler over Puig?

Marc Hulet: They may not have had a choice… But I like Soler. I think he’ll have more sustainable success than Puig, even though the latter prospect is far more MLB ready. I saw Soler play last year and commented on his huge grip-and-rip swings… and needing a lot more development time. Puig stays within himself much better.

Comment From Trey
Do Schoop’s injury eliminate any chance of getting a late season call-up?

Marc Hulet: Quite possibly… Schoop, again, hasn’t completely dominated his competition and the O’s are doing pretty good without him.

Comment From Hunter Pences Thorax
Any chance of Xander Bogaerts if Drew got hurt and Iglesias stopped hitting?

Marc Hulet: There is always a chance but I see no reason to rush him unless the org is completely convinced he’s ready for the pressure and the big league curveballs.

Comment From Wobbles
how long are prospects typically allowed to dominate a level before being promoted? Cecchini and Bogaerts have really gone bananas, will the sox decide they’re not just on hot streaks and bump them up soon?

Marc Hulet: Every club has different philosophies, and that is one of the neatest things about researching the Top 15s in the offseason — getting to talk to front office guys about their development philosophies.

Comment From Trey
When do you start on your Top 100 for next year? Do you try to keep a rolling list throughout the season and shift players up and down?

Marc Hulet: I do that more with each club’s Top 15-20 prospects and then the Top 100 comes together after I’ve settled on the Top 15s… kind of like putting a puzzle together.

Comment From Guest
What do you think the Cardinal farm system will look like next year after all the graduations this year?

Marc Hulet: It’s an interesting question and one that’s popped into my mind a few times early on this year. It’s a great organization, though, and they have a way of turning fringe prospects into pretty solid contributors — such as Pete Kozma.

Comment From Hunter Pences Thorax
Ozuna stays when Giancarlo comes back…right?

Marc Hulet: I honestly never imagined he’d have this kind of success early on… I thought they were nuts for promoting him when they did. His BABIP is due for a big tumble but he may stick.

Comment From Jon
Can Nimmo handle CF long-term or will he end up in a corner?

Marc Hulet: I haven’t seen much of his defense in center so I have to be somewhat cautious in my opinion but from what I’ve heard he can play well enough to hold down the position until a plus defensive player comes in and forces him to the corner.

Comment From Drew7
Rank ’em: Almora, Soler, Baez, Bryant

Marc Hulet: Baez, Bryant, Almora, Soler… I’m a big Bryant fan, and also a big Almora believer.

Comment From JT
Will Xander Bogaerts have an impact this year, He’s been heating up lately

Marc Hulet: Maybe in September…

Comment From CJ
Brinson and Gallo have K% of almost 40, do you know of any prospects in the past that have K’d this much in A ball and become good major leaguers?

Marc Hulet: They’re both very young and it still qualifies as a small sample… If they still have 30-40% strikeout rates at the end of the year, then I start to worry a tiny bit.

Comment From CespedesFamilyPig
Puig is showing impressive stuff now but will he be able to adjust to a major league breaking ball?

Marc Hulet: That’s the $100 question… He’s still getting challenged to a degree and also capitalizing on a lot of mistakes… It will be interesting to see what adjustments are made by the league and what he’s up to come mid-July.

Comment From Guest
Are Greg Garcia and Ryan Jackson better options at SS for the Cardinals than Kozma?

Marc Hulet: I always preferred Jackson to Kozma and still do. I think Kozma is a utility guy long term. I think Garcia is a UT gut too and I even like him more than Kozma. I was impressed with Garcia when I saw him play but he doesn’t have a standout tool.

Comment From Guest
Thoughts on Skaggs and his first few MLB starts?

Marc Hulet: I’m a big fan of Skaggs… still can’t get over the pitching that the Angels have given up on in the past few years….

Comment From Jason
Alcantara, Amaya, or Candelario — which Cubs IF prospect has the most upside?

Marc Hulet: Maybe Alcantara now… still undecided but I always felt Candelario was a little overhyped. He never impresses me when I see him play.

Comment From Randy
Are you still high on Adsion Russell? he’s still striking out a ton but looks to have good pop

Marc Hulet: He’s another guy I thought was a little overhyped in the offseason and I think his quick promotion to A+ was a bit much. With that said, he still has all-star potential.

Comment From Drew7
Is Alcantara a top-100 guy right now?

Marc Hulet: No, probably not.

Comment From Guest
What are your thoughts on the Oscar Taveras injury status?

Marc Hulet: High ankle sprains suck… but at least I might get to write about him this offseason.

Comment From Guest
Rank: Heredia, Glasnow, Kingham?

Marc Hulet: Probably Glasnow then Kingham… and Heredia’s spot to be determined once he pitches in 2013. Returning to short season ball for a third time definitely raises some minor red flags.

Comment From zack
Has matt carpenter played Wong out of the job?

Marc Hulet: For now, yeah. But Wong is a good insurance or possibly a trade chip for filling holes.

Comment From T Kay
Is Gregory Polanco a better prospect than Starling Marte was? Who’s a good comp for Polanco?

Marc Hulet: I was never a huge Marte fan… I like Polanco better than I did Marte at any point of his minor league career.

Comment From CespedesFamilyPig
Xander Bogaerts opening day Red Sox SS next season? what do you expect out of him?

Marc Hulet: I doubt a perennial contender like Boston is going to pencil in a rookie as their starting shortstop until he proves himself a little more and above AA… very talented player, though.

Comment From Bart
Billy Hamilton 2014 opening day CF for the Reds?

Marc Hulet: He isn’t hitting very well in AAA so I highly doubt it.

Comment From Ethan
top 5 in 2014: Boegarts, Buxton, Bradley, Bundy, Singleton?

Marc Hulet: I’d put Buxton ahead of Bogaerts at this point and Singleton probably doesn’t belong in the Top 5 at the end of the year. Bundy’s injury also throws things up in the air until we know a little more about it.

Comment From Mikey
Bradley > Bundy?

Marc Hulet: Not yet.

Comment From C
Have you had a chance to see Xander Bogaerts recently? Not only has his bat been dominant, but reports are saying his defense has improved significantly as well

Marc Hulet: I saw him live in the spring playing for the WBC. He did OK but didn’t wow me. And it was just one game. Bogaerts’ recent results are SSS… let’s see how the entire year plays out before we get too excited.

Comment From Trey
I know he’s not a prospect but is this Dom Brown’s way of saying, “I told you so?”

Marc Hulet: I was always a big fan of Brown’s and still can’t believe no one grabbed him when the Phillies were so down on him. I wonder how he feels about the way he was treated by the org last year?

Comment From Tommy Wiseau
Oh, hi Marc. What are your thoughts on Billy Hamilton? ETA in bigs, and possible production?

Marc Hulet: I could see him coming up and doing some pinch running in September. He’s got to be on the 40-man anyway. As for when he’s ready to be a regular, though, I would say mid-2014 at the earliest.

Comment From Texas Joe.
Astros look like they could be legit good come 2014. If appel can move – then singleton, springer, correa, etc. Future is BRIGHT! Go Texas mang!

Marc Hulet: The Astros are one of my three favorite teams… but I think saying they could be ready to compete in 2014 is a bit rich… I agree on the bright future part, though.

Comment From Jeff in T.O.
Walker or Hultzen for you & why?? Thanks Marc

Marc Hulet: I have concerns with Hultzen’s heath and those trump my worries over Walker’s command… so the latter player.

Comment From Dolly
If you had to remake your top 100 prospect list right now, which players that didn’t make the cut last time would rank the highest?

Marc Hulet: I’d have to go back and really look at my notes to comment but I would definitely have ranked Puig a lot higher than 99…. I just didn’t have enough data on the guy to get a feel for his game — nor did anyone I spoke with. He was the mystery guy last winter.

Comment From Guest
Is Oscar Taveras’s defense in CF adequate to play in the majors?

Marc Hulet: He’s a corner guy for me.

Comment From CespedesFamilyPig
Thoughts on Sonny Gray, when do you think we will see him?

Marc Hulet: The A’s org told me he was asked to work on some things last year that interfered with his overall numbers and success… So he’s better than last year’s numbers would suggest. I could see him impacting the club in the second half of 2013.

Comment From Tip
Closest to the majors: Bundy, bradley, Singleton, Springer, or Boegarts?

Marc Hulet: A healthy Bundy, then probably Bogaerts, Singleton, Bradley, Springer…

Comment From TJ
Is Wheeler ready? I’ve heard conflicting reports…understand he’s been pitching in a hitters park, but a 3.86 ERA in AAA seems like a 5.50 ERA in the show to me…

Marc Hulet: He’s a great prospect. He has a 5.88 home ERA and pitches in one of the worst stadiums in minor league ball and perhaps the toughest league in the minors… His road ERA is 2.23 — be excited with this guy… I think I might write about him soon.

Comment From Holy Cow
Who would you say has more upside once they are called up, Billy Hamilton or Wil Myers?

Marc Hulet: Myers by a wide margin.

Comment From joe
Thoughts on the yankee draft picks last night?…any specific thoughts on Gosuke Katoh?…thanks.

Marc Hulet: Sounds like they had one of their best starts to a draft in years. But having multiple picks gives an org a real edge. I like their first 3 guys.

Comment From Mike
What do you think of the Cardinals insistence that Kozma is a better option than Ryan Jackson at SS this year?

Marc Hulet: The org knows their guys a lot better than I do and I have a lot of confidence in their front office. There are a lot of smart guys with good baseball IQ. I can’t fault them for playing the hot hand. Why hurt the team dynamic when they’re playing so well?

Comment From Patrick
What are your thoughts on Crawford? BA has him ranked ahead of Quinn in the Phillies top 10. Appropriate expectations? Thoughts on his hitting?

Marc Hulet: I’m going to wait and see how he handles some games later this year (hopefully) before I commit to placing him ahead of Quinn. I know Mike Newman is a Quinn believer and so am I.

Comment From KCCO
Dilson Herrera. Big league regular or utility guy at best?

Marc Hulet: I have hope he can be a regular but too soon for me to put too much faith in him.

Comment From Patrick
Is Maikel Franco the Phillies future at 3B? Does the bat project?

Marc Hulet: Power definitely does. I like him a fair bit… time will tell if he can hit more than .260.

Comment From Olt English
Is Mike Olt playing well enough since the eyeball thing to possibly be called up soon?

Marc Hulet: I wouldn’t rush him. I kind of felt he was a little overhyped before the injury.

Comment From Jon
When d’Arnaud returns from injury does he need more minor league development time or could the Mets just get him some reps in rehab games and then promote him?

Marc Hulet: I always thought he probably needed another 2-3 months in the minors and nothing has changed that assessment.

Comment From Bruce
Top Fantasy guy to grab from this years draft?

Marc Hulet: Maybe Bryant…

Comment From Buck
Do you think Alen Hansen can be an impact bat for the Pirates?

Marc Hulet: He should be an average to above-average regular… but I don’t think he’ll necessarily be a star.

Comment From scott
Do you think we see Albert Almora around the same time as Buxton in the majors (late 2015 at the earliest) or earlier. The cubs don’t seem shy pulling the trigger on young talent.

Marc Hulet: Almora needs to stay healthy for a bit… but I could see him arriving shortly after Buxton. Star prep draftees usually take approx. 4 years of minor league seasoning.

Comment From Cubby
Did the Cubs make the right move taking Bryant over Gray?

Marc Hulet: I would have seriously considered Bryant at No. 1, so yes.

Comment From MARC
Puigmania! Would you deal him straight up for Jose Fernandez or Matt Harvey, or would you hold either or both pitchers in a dynasty league?

Marc Hulet: I would definitely keep Harvey and would almost certainly keep Fernandez at this point. Puig wouldn’t be the first rookie to kill it in the first week of his career and then see his numbers dip to more realistic levels.

Comment From Kyle
When will it be Rubby time?

Marc Hulet: He hasn’t pitched more than 4.2 innings in a start since returning from injury, so it may be a little while.

Comment From BassmanUW
Why is Pierce Johnson still in Low A? He’s pitching very well there, and what can you learn about a 22 year old pitcher in Low A?

Marc Hulet: He’s been a little more hittable than I’d like to see but I agree, he shouldn’t spend too long in Low-A ball.

Comment From Cleon
Can Jonathan Villar develop into a good offensive MI in the bigs?

Marc Hulet: I’ve always considered him a future utility guy who could maybe see a few years as a second-division regular.

Comment From Chicago Mark
Do you think Martinez of Stl. makes it back to the rotation this year?>

Marc Hulet: He has the talent to do it but the Cards have some depth in the rotation so it all depends on their needs and long-term plan for him.

Comment From CK
Where do you see the draft’s top 3 — Appel, Bryant, and Gray — falling into the 2014 top 100? Are all of them top 10?

Marc Hulet: They should all be in the Top 50 of the Top 100, I would imagine. Top 10 for all three would be rich.

Comment From Chicago Mark
With Stanton return and Morrison coming back do we see Yellich this year?

Marc Hulet: If Yelich can stay healthy, I could see him in the Majors by the end of the year, given how the organization has promoted other top prospects in their system.

Comment From Keith
Safe to assume Archie Bradley is the best pitching prospect in baseball?

Marc Hulet: He’s always been in the conversation for me… I have always been a huge fan, but no, I wouldn’t say “safe to assume.”

Comment From Abe
Rank these Brewers prospects: __________

Marc Hulet: You have exactly the correct order. Nice job.

Comment From Basement Dweller
Let’s say Buxton really is as great as we think he is, and he develops at the same pace he’s demonstrated thus far. Is it out of the question for him to be in the show by the end of 2014?

Marc Hulet: Not out of the question but I would be shocked if he was ready that early.

Comment From KCCO
What can we expect to see from Jairo Beras come Canada Day?

Marc Hulet: I don’t think anyone knows what to think about Beras… even the Rangers — although I know they have a ton of background info on him and like him a lot.

Comment From Guest#1
Who playes in the NY-Penn league? Is is mostly recent draftees? Who else?

Marc Hulet: Recent draftees, some stragglers from last year’s draft, international free agents… pretty much anyone can play there.

Comment From T Kay
Heard Gerrit Cole might get called up in the next week or so. Is he ready?

Marc Hulet: I’ll let the big league hitters determine that…. He’s not ready to be a No. 1 or 2, but he could be a No. 4 guy right now if he trusts his stuff.

Comment From Tyler Flowers
I should be very, very worried shouldn’t I? (Phegley)

Marc Hulet: I’ve always had a soft spot for Phegley and have ranked him aggressively in the past… Great story given the serious health woes he’s had. But yeah, Flowers isn’t very good.

Comment From Mark
You sound down on Wil Myers. Do you see him as a league average player as opposed to a star?

Marc Hulet: I’m not down on him. I just don’t think he’s ready to step in and be an above-average regular at the big league level. Not everyone starts off like Puig.

Comment From Guest#1
Will you be going to the Futures Game?

Marc Hulet: I don’t think so, no.

Comment From Bill
Do you think Profar stays with the Rangers, or do you think they will trade him in the next year?

Marc Hulet: I’d hold onto him and find a way to get him into the lineup regularly.

Comment From CespedesFamilyPig
Rank these Red Sox arms Workman, Ranaudo, and Barnes

Marc Hulet: I’d rank them the same order I did during the offseason (for now) but I am pleasantly surprised with Ranaudo and I heard some very good things about him when I talked to the organization.

Comment From KCCO
Are you concerned with the lack of power shown by Swihart so far?

Marc Hulet: Power is usually the last tool to develop. I would rather see a prospect show the ability to handle the strike zone and make consistent contact.

Comment From Josh
How many players have you completely been wrong on in saying that they won’t amount to anything special because I know Law didn’t like Goldschmit (actually grew up with him and his family and has always hit) because of his long swing?

Marc Hulet: I’ve been covering prospects for about 10 years so I’ve wrong a lot…. Jean Segura is a guy that comes to mind — I didn’t think he’d be this good — solid, but not this good.

Comment From Puig Man
Puig or jose fernandez, rest of career?

Marc Hulet: Fernandez.

Comment From Josh
Does Foltzy (I have no clue how to spell his last name) make the top 100 this year?

Marc Hulet: If he keeps pitching like this, yes.

Comment From Jason
Who is the top 1b prospect in the minors? There seems to be a lack of depth at the position in terms of potential MLB impact players.

Marc Hulet: Jonathan Singleton is probably the top guy, although there are a lot of people that may not be jumping to mind right now. I only ranked one 1B on the Top 100 prospects list, so yeah, it’s not a deep position.

Comment From Ethan
doesn’t boegarts position trump buxton’s potential?

Marc Hulet: Both are up-the-middle talents.

Comment From German baseball!
Where is Max Kepler this yaer? He hurt?

Marc Hulet: I don’t think he’s hurt… pretty sure they’re just being cautious with him given that he doesn’t have as much amateur experience as the typical pro.

Comment From Redbird
Color me dumb…so you are saying no Tavares at all this year?

Marc Hulet: Not enough to make his prospect eligibility to expire…

Comment From Brian Gausman
How good is Kevin Gausman? Early struggles in MLB mean anything?

Marc Hulet: Early struggles can be a good thing… every player needs to learn to deal with adversity. I know some clubs prefer to have prospects struggle in the minors first — so they can learn to deal with it before they’re under the microscope. Gausman should be a No. 1 or 2 pitcher in time, assuming he can find a consistent breaking ball.

Marc Hulet: Sorry guys… I gotta go — lots of unanswered questions… feel free to repost them to me on Twitter @marchulet and I will answer as many as I can… thanks very much for hanging out with me.