Asking a player how he’s over-performed his peripherals is a tricky thing. I settled on a toe in the water: “Have you ever heard of FanGraphs? WAR? FIP?” From Ryan Vogelsong’s responses to those inquiries at Giants’ Media day (“No, but Wins Above Replacement I have, all those stats, yeah” he replied), it seemed clear that the right-hander might need a little introduction to any sabermetric statistic I was going to ask him about.

“Given your strikeouts, walks, and ground balls, your FIP, which is usually more steady than ERA, has been higher than your ERA — you’ve been sort of over-performing these stats that people have come up with. I think this is really interesting because given your history, and given all that you’ve had to overcome, you’ve been under-rated in the past, too. Is there anything you can say about the way you pitch that might look like more than the sum of the parts? Is there something you play ‘up?’ How would you define yourself as a pitcher?”

It’s a wonder that Vogelsong had a reasoned, affable response to that mess. In fact, it’s a credit to the pitcher that he didn’t give this reporter the thousand-mile stare. I just asked him why his FIP has been almost three-quarters of a run higher than his ERA over the last two years.

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It was about time for Todd Frazier. The Cincinnati Reds slugger was one of the top rookies in the National League last season, and arguably the most valuable player on a team that won 97 games. Drafted 34th overall in 2007, he could have been in Dusty Baker’s lineup earlier than he was.

Two lines in his 2010 Baseball America Prospect Handbook bio help explain his delayed arrival. In rating him Cincinnati’s top prospect, the publication described Frazier as “a jack of all trades but a master of none” and listed his position was as “OF/2B/3B.” Originally a shortstop, he had become a man without a defensive home.

Last year, his versatility proved more of a blessing than a curse. When Joey Votto went on the shelf, Frazier stepped in and provided solid production at first base. When Scott Rolen went down, he did the same at third base. Overall, he hit .273/.331/.498, with 19 home runs, in 128 games.

Frazier, who celebrates his 27th birthday on Tuesday, heads into the 2013 season as Cincinnati’s starting third baseman.

——

David Laurila: Are you finally an established big-leaguer?

Todd Frazier: I have that first year under my belt, but I don’t think I’m an established big-leaguer. You need at least a couple of years in to be that, but I do feel I’m a big-league ballplayer. I think I’ve opened some eyes, although there’s always room for improvement.

It’s crazy, because you play in the minor leagues — you wait your time — and when you finally get your chance, it’s: `What are you going to do with it now?’ Often, when guys get called up, they play a lot. When I got called up, I was in a pinch-hitting role. I told myself that when I get that opportunity, I need to step up. I think I was 5-for-6, or 6-for-7, as a pinch-hitter and was able to help the team enough that they kept me on. The next step was to show I belonged, and I did that. I think I proved I belong.

DL: Did not establishing yourself in any one position hold you back? Read the rest of this entry »

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Boston Red Sox. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Giants / Mariners / Marlins / Mets / Nationals / Orioles / Padres / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / Twins / White Sox / Yankees.

Batters
It’s important, of course, to acknowledge always that front offices — especially the sort which have a reputation for embracing all manner of analysis — that they might possess certain information to which we, baseball’s laypeople, are not privy. To whatever degree that might be the case, however, it’s difficult to imagine what information precisely the Red Sox might have with regard to Jonny Gomes, whom the club signed to a two-year, $10 million contract this offseason and intends, it seems, to deploy as their starting left fielder. While the bar is rather low for Gomes to earn his money, Dan Szymborski’s math computer suggests that Gomes’ odds of producing like an average major-leaguer aren’t excellent.

I asked Szymborski about the Gomes projection — and, in particular, to what degree it might account for platoon splits (Gomes having a reputation for possessing a large-ish one). To which question Szymborski replied: “ZiPS only knows past usage.” To that point, we ought to consider this when considering Gomes’s rather successful 2012 season: about 59% of Gomes’s plate appearances in 2012 were against left-handed pitchers. Meanwhile, only one-third of his plate appearances between 2009 and -11 were against lefties.

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Ben and Sam preview the Athletics’ season with Doug Thorburn, and Pete talks to Bay Area News Group A’s beat writer John Hickey (at 19:07).

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Episode 304
Prospect analyst Marc Hulet discusses some recent organizational top-15 prospect lists for the 2012-13 offseason, with particular attention to left-hander Martin Perez (Texas), right-hander Julio Teheran (Atlanta), right-hander Luis Heredia (Pittsburgh), left-hander Enny Romero (Tampa Bay), outfielder Mikie Mahtook (Tampa Bay), third baseman Jedd Gyorko, and left-hander Robbie Erlin (both from San Diego) — as well as the assorted issues raised by each.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 39 min play time.)

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I don’t spend a lot of time thinking about the Marlins, but of the time I do spend thinking about the Marlins, the bulk of it is spent thinking about that one home run Giancarlo Stanton blasted off Jamie Moyer. You know the one — the one that broke the scoreboard, the one that set an ESPN Home Run Tracker speed-off-bat record. The home run, just fair, was also a grand slam, and it was the hardest-hit home run baseball’s seen in at least seven years. Stanton didn’t catch up to a blazing heater. This was Jamie Moyer, after all. Stanton ripped a full-count changeup at 72 miles per hour.

There exists some sentiment that harder throwers will give up harder contact than softer throwers. Less contact, of course, but also harder contact. The idea is that Aroldis Chapman‘s balls in play will be struck harder than Livan Hernandez’s balls in play. It’s based in very simple physics: we care about the velocity of the ball, the mass of the ball, the velocity of the bat, and the mass of the bat. Hold everything else constant and, as you increase the ball’s velocity, you end up with a greater speed off the bat. The reality is more complicated than this, but this gets to the core.

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On Monday, we looked at three vetoed trades, and I thought today we’d look at three more.

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In 2008, Mike Aviles was a 27-year-old minor league infielder in the Royals’ system who had to get a lucky break for the club to play him over this historically terrible Tony Pena, Jr. Yesterday, the soon-to-be 32-year-old Aviles got his first multi-year, guaranteed deal with Cleveland, which bought out his last two years of arbitration for $6 million and a club option for 2015. It has been quite the odyssey for Aviles, who was drafted by the Royals seventh round in 2003, in large part because he would sign for a $1,000 signing bonus (David Glass is great, isn’t he? Let’s give a hand to David Glass, folks!), has seen himself passed over for the likes of the aforementioned Pena, Yuniesky Betancourt and Chris Getz, and was traded twice this winter, including once for a manager.

Despite all that, Aviles has shown himself to be a useful player — and while this contract is hardly huge in itself — it might have interesting implications for how Cleveland’s roster might shake out in the near future.

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I was going to do my list of the 10 worst off-season transactions today, but I’m going to push it back to next week, since I have some things to say about yesterday’s news.

The Mariners are apparently set to sign Felix Hernandez to the largest contract ever given to a Major League pitcher. The total commitment is $175 million over seven years. It’s a staggering amount for a guy who wasn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2014 season, and in many ways, this contract is the continuation of the trend that we saw begin last year with Joey Votto’s deal with the Reds. Here’s what I wrote a year ago when that deal was announced:

So, at this point, we have a couple of options – we can continue to be shocked and amazed at the growing rate of contracts that guarantee big money to players from 2018 and beyond, or we can adjust our expectations for what premium players are going to be able to command going forward. With the promise of new money flowing into many organizations over the next three to five years, I’d imagine we’ll see more and more teams being aggressive in trying to lock up their young stars before they get to free agency and have to bid against whichever franchise just happened to renegotiate their television contract a few months prior.

For the Reds, the equation was pretty simple – keep Votto and contend during the run-up to the expiration of their television deal, or trade him away, rebuild, and come to the table asking for more money after a couple of years of going young and probably taking their lumps. Given those options, giving Votto a couple of extra years at the back end to increase their bargaining position doesn’t look quite so crazy.

…

This deal is going to have lasting repercussions on the sport. Not only does it suggest that the Reds are going to remain competitive in the NL Central going forward, but it also resets the price expectations for every pre-free agent player in the sport. Congratulations, players, all of your expected prices just went up. Way up.

Felix’s deal with the Mariners is the pitcher’s version of Votto’s deal with the Reds. It’s a free agent price for a pitcher who wasn’t a free agent, and in that sense, there’s a pretty good argument to be made that it’s too much money. The Mariners are taking on significant additional risk by guaranteeing him his 2015-2019 salaries now, and like with Votto, that risk wasn’t offset by getting a below market price on the deal. Given the history of pitcher attrition, there’s a significant chance that this deal will go south for the Mariners, and they’ll end up with an expensive and overpaid former ace. Most good young pitchers don’t turn into good old pitchers, and the Mariners have just made a huge bet on Felix being the exception rather than the rule.

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