Ben and Sam discuss the eventful Games Three and Four of the World Series.

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Baseball is about randomness as much as it about probability. That was provenon Saturday when the game ended on an obstruction call. Tonight had its own atypical ending — a pickoff with the tying run at the plate — but it was a more-common unexpected event that decided the outcome.

The Red Sox won 4-2, at Busch Stadium, to draw even with the Cardinals. The hero was Jonny “Replacement” Gomes

Through four games, the 2013 World Series has been all about lapses. Lapses in judgment, lapses in execution, lapses in decision-making. The Red Sox have had more than the Cardinals. Despite coming out on top, that was the case tonight. Read the rest of this entry »

We begin with some acknowledgements. First, a baseball game is never entirely won or lost based on a single event, a single match-up. Certain events can be of massive importance, but they’re massive because of the context, and the context is established by other events, that would’ve led to different outcomes given different outcomes. So many different things contribute to a game result. An impossible, uncountable number of things, some of them things you’d never consider. Perhaps you’ve recognized that baseball is complicated. This isn’t checkers. Checkers is also complicated.

Second, managerial decisions tend to have their significance exaggerated. As MGL is fond of reminding us, most managerial decisions lead to very minor swings in win expectancy, which of course is the only thing that matters. Certain decisions are worse than others, and some can be relatively major in a good way or a bad way, but at the end of the day it’s still up to the players on the field, and pitchers are always going to have the advantage over hitters, save for the most extreme of circumstances. When managers get ripped to shreds, there tends to be a lot of results-based analysis, and that’s by and large worthless.

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Much of the focus on last night’s game has centered around the obstruction call that gave the Cardinals a walk-off win. The poor defensive play that allowed the scenario to unfold played a major role, and it has also drawn a lot of attention. Ditto questionable decisions by both managers.

Almost completely overlooked are a defensive play and expertly-choreographed pitch sequences in potentially game-changing innings. Read the rest of this entry »

You may have heard that Game Three of the 2013 World Series had an unusual ending. The kind that nobody could have predicted. Even @CantPredictBaseball had trouble finding the right words to describe the play.

Imagine, if you would, a vast scale of all difficult-to-predict ways a game could end, ranging from unlikely to unbelievable. On the unlikely side of the scale you have something like a 1-2-3 double play. On the unbelievable end is Bud Selig arbitrarily deciding that he’s seen enough (oh wait…). An obstruction call at third base on a play that included a tag out at home plate falls smack dab on the end of the unbelievable side. In case you want to see the play again (h/t @CJZero):

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“Immediately once we got off the field, and into our locker room, we congratulated Jim. We said ‘great call.’”

Those were the words of crew chief John Hirschbeck, referring to third base umpire Jim Joyce’s obstruction call that gave the Cardinals a 5-4 win in Game Three of the World Series. The Red Sox weren’t so sure.

To say the call was controversial would be an understatement. It rivaled football’s infamous “tuck rule game,” but this time it didn’t benefit a team from New England, nor did it happen in a snowstorm. It happened in a sea of Busch Stadium red, white towels twirling, and ended one of the most-captivating baseball games you’ll ever see.

Boston manager John Farrell’s interpretation is telling. Read the rest of this entry »

The final play of Game 3 of the World Series has generated some very strong opinions. In the poll just below this (that includes a GIF of the play), most of you have sided with the umpires, believing that the obstruction call on Will Middlebrooks was correct. Rather than offer a strong opinion of my own, I’d like to simply offer some connected thoughts that have come from watching the play a few hundred times.

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No GIF yet, because the game just ended, but let’s assume that most of you that are viewing FanGraphs at this time of day probably watched the end of the World Series.

Posted by Twitter User @CJZero, here’s how game three ended.

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7:29

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