Archive for 2013

A Minor Review of 2013: Phillies

There is always a bit of a lull between the end of the minor league playoffs in September and the start of the annual top prospects lists in early November. Because of that gap, I’m breathing new life into an old feature that I wrote for the site in FanGraphs’ infancy back in 2008 and 2009.

The series ‘A Minor Review of 2013’ will look back on some of the major happenings in each MLB organization since the beginning of April as a primer for the upcoming FanGraphs Top 10+5 prospects lists. This series will run throughout September and October. I hope you enjoy the series and are eagerly anticipating the start of ‘Prospect List Season.’

The player listed in the sleeper section was featured in a pre-season series that looked at one fringe prospect in each organization that was expected to take a big step forward during 2013, chosen by myself, a scout or a front office talent evaluator.

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Turning to Freddy Garcia With the Season on the Line

Tonight, the Atlanta Braves will play the Dodgers with their season on the line. Down 2-1 in the NLDS, the Braves have to win tonight just to force a Game 5 — which would match them up against Clayton Kershaw again, so, yeah, this isn’t a great situation — and are turning to Freddy Garcia in this win-or-go-home game. Yes, the Freddy Garcia who turned 37 yesterday, and has had a season that could charitably be described as adventurous.

He went to spring training with the Padres on a minor league deal, but was cut loose after getting bombed on a regular basis in the Cactus League. The Orioles signed him to a minor league contract a few days later and gave him a month in Triple-A before calling him up at the beginning of May. He responded by throwing 50 disastrous innings, including a 5.77 ERA and 6.73 FIP, which got him sent back to Triple-A at the beginning of July. He hung out in the minors for a few months until the Braves picked him up at the end of August and brought him back to the big leagues when rosters expanded in September.

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Contract Crowdsourcing 2013-14: Carlos Beltran

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2013-14 free-agent market.

Note that, this year, in addition to asking readers to estimate the years/dollars each free agent is likely to receive, FanGraphs is also requesting that readers make note of how much they’d pay each free agent were they, themselves, actual GMs.

In this edition: Carlos Beltran.

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The Greatest Matts in Playoff History

The Cardinals face possible elimination today at the hands of the Pirates. It has been a wild year for the National League Central. One could make an argument that, this season at least, the National League Central was right up there with the American League East as the best division in baseball. The Cardinals won that division and tied the Red Sox for the best record in baseball.

But it could all end for St. Louis today. Although I personally do not have a rooting interest in this series (yeah, it would be fun to see the Pirates advance, but that is not the same as being a fan of either team), it would be too bad to see the Cardinals’ Matt-heavy lineup depart. It has Matt Carpenter, a legitimate MVP candidate in his first year of full-time major league play, Matt Holliday, who overcame a relatively slow start to have another very good season, and Matt Adams, a rookie who is starting the place of the injured Allen Craig, and who managed to whack 17 home runs in part-time action.

With my own semi-vested interest in Matts, and with the Matt-loaded Cardinals playing perhaps their last game of 2013 today, a bit of trivia is in order: the best-hitting Matts in playoff history.

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Playoff Experience: A Factor that Isn’t

What wasn’t surprising about Sunday’s game between the Dodgers and the Braves was that the Dodgers won. Not that the Braves are any sort of pushover, of course, but the Dodgers had to be considered the favorites. What was more surprising was the manner by which the Dodgers achieved their victory. Starter Hyun-Jin Ryu was removed after throwing just three innings, yielding a pair of two-run frames. But the Dodgers’ lineup chased opposing starter Julio Teheran before the end of the third, and it ultimately ended up a laugher. Not only did Teheran allow more than five runs for the first time all year; for the first time all year, he also lasted fewer than five innings.

Both Ryu and Teheran were making their first-ever starts in the playoffs, and each could’ve performed levels better. Ryu, at least, pitched in games of some import in Korea — Teheran hadn’t faced these stakes, and the TBS broadcast noted that he looked like he was pitching nervous. He was said to look timid and young, with the Dodgers taking considerable advantage. This is the time of year when authorities all over the place give a lot of importance to a player having played in the postseason in the past. It’s important, they say, for the player to have dealt with the intense, persistent pressure. I don’t think there’s any question that the playoffs have a bit of a different feel. At issue is whether that matters.

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Jarrod Parker, Now Healthy

On May 7th, Jarrod Parker woke up with a pain in his neck. He’d been dealing with it for a while, and it had a lot do with his 7.34 ERA and the fact that he was giving up more than two home runs per nine innings. Those dark days are long since gone, but it was the low point for Oakland’s Game Three starter.

On Saturday before Game Two, Oakland manager Bob Melvin addressed those struggles and identified how that injury most hindered Parker. Even if that injury is in his rear view mirror, learning more about it might provide viewers something to watch for in the early going in Game Three.

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Effectively Wild Episode 301: Dusty Baker’s Future and Joe Maddon’s Perplexing Move/Favorite Prospects from Scout School

Ben and Sam talk about two managers in the news, then discuss a pair of prospects Ben saw in Arizona.


The Rays Chances and Postseason Swing Rates

Looking at it from a glass-is-half-full perspective, the Rays have the Red Sox right where they want them. Following last night’s 7-4 loss, Tampa Bay is one game away from elimination. Again.

Joe Maddon’s team has been thriving under pressure. In a string of win-or-go-home games leading up to the ALDS, the resilient Rays repeatedly won and went on.

Tomorrow, they do go home — to Tropicana Field — needing to do it again. It will be a tall task. Not only do they have to win three straight to stay alive, their gas tank is nearing empty. As much as Maddon denies his team is tired, they just crisscrossed the country to play 10 adrenaline-fueled games in five different cities. The Rays are gutsy, but they’re close to running on fumes.

Alex Cobb, who will take the mound in Game 3, admitted the travel and high-stakes environment are taking their toll. He also owned up to not knowing where he was when he woke up following his outstanding performance against Cleveland in Wednesday’s wildcard game. Read the rest of this entry »


Does the Braves’ Stuff Work in the Playoffs?

“We know we’re going to strike out. That’s just a given with guys who have power. And we have a lot of guys who can hit the ball out of the park. And that kind of goes hand in hand. But you look at some of the studies — and our guys have looked at them — and there’s not a direct correlation with strikeouts and offense.”

— Atlanta general manager Frank Wren, interviewed by Jayson Stark on 2/18/13

This quote comes from Alex Remington’s piece on these very pages back in April. When the Braves finished constructing their roster — a roster similar to what we see now — there were questions as to whether the team would strike out too much to make a run at the postseason. Well, we’ve now reached the postseason, and the Braves are still here. And they’re still striking out too, averaging over 10 Ks a game so far. They also led the NL in home runs, an achievement they were expected to sniff given their lineup. This was kind of the plan from the beginning — strike out a fair amount, but counter that with a good deal of power.

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Two Big Innings Early in Oakland’s Walk-Off Win

The game stories might end up being about Stephen Vogt and that’s fine. He got the big walk-off hit and he hasn’t been celebrated much so far in his baseball career. But, as with many big moments, the seeds that resulted in that wild finish were sown much earlier in the day.

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