Archive for 2013

On Context, or Evaluating Hitters and Pitchers Differently

Here at FanGraphs, our pitching WAR is built around Fielding Independent Pitching, which focuses solely on a pitcher’s walks, strikeouts, and home runs allowed. Because it ignores the results of balls in play and the order in which results occur, there are occasionally big differences between a pitcher’s FIP and his ERA. This divide often leads to some consternation when a pitcher with a high ERA posts a decent WAR, or in reverse, when our WAR doesn’t grade out a pitcher with a very low ERA that highly.

A significant number of people — including a good chunk of our own readers, and noted sabermetric evangelists like Brian Kenny — prefer to evaluate pitchers by runs allowed because, as I’ve heard repeatedly over the last few years, that measures “what actually happened”. And that’s one of the reasons we have RA9-WAR here on the site, as we know that a sizable amount of people prefer to evaluate pitchers in that way.

I believe there are valid points on both sides, and I see the argument using a FIP-based WAR and a RA9-based WAR when evaluating a pitcher’s past performance. However, I find it interesting that this debate has not carried over to position players, where there seems to be broad consensus* that context-neutral is the way to go.

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Daily Notes: Ft. A Playoff Adjustment for NERD Game Scores

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. A Playoff Adjustment for NERD Game Scores
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

A Playoff Adjustment for NERD Game Scores
Introduction
The ongoing concern of the author — and the concern, probably, of at least one reader — is, each day, to watch a baseball game which might be best described as “rich and compelling.” For much of the season, such games are defined largely by the quality of the pitching matchup in question. Young and hard-throwing and quick-working and (ultimately) effective starters: this is the order of the day. If those pitchers’ opponents are some combination of productive and powerful and swift-footed, so much the better.

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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 9/3/13

8:59
Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys, we’ll get going in a couple minutes. Finishing off the last of breakfast, as is always the case, every single time.

8:59
Jeff Sullivan: I spent the entire long weekend in the North Cascades and have next to no idea what’s been happening in baseball lately. As such this is going to be the worst live baseball chat you’ve ever experienced.

9:00
Jeff Sullivan: Educate me!

9:02
Comment From Brian S
Why on earth is Kevin Gregg still a Cub?

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: He’s still the same Kevin Gregg who signed a minor-league contract after the start of the season, plus five months

9:02
Comment From Fun fact of the day
Pedro Astacio, 1999: 5.04 ERA, 1.435 WHIP, 38 HR… and a 5.9 rWAR, good for 5th in the NL. Coors Field!

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2013’s Top Batteries at Preventing the Running Game

Over the last two months, I have been working on quantifying which of the two battery mates deserves credit — or rather blame — for the running game and the passed ball and wild pitch. Note: It’s not dire that you read those articles to comprehend and enjoy this one.

The main take away from my research is that I have found a pitcher has more statistical correlation, with the caught stealing percentage, wild pitches, and passed balls of a battery, than the catcher. While none of this is revolutionary, it is important to note that neither the pitcher nor the catcher is solely to blame for any outcome in a battery, rather it is a combination of both. However, considering the strong correlations we discovered in the pitchers favor, we can now recognize that conventional wisdom underestimates the impact a pitcher can have on the outcomes of a battery — especially in regards to the running game.

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FanGraphs Audio: Alex Speier, Very Lettered Beat Reporter

Episode 377
Alex Speier both (a) provides written and audio content to Boston radio station WEEI as one of that site’s Red Sox beat reporters and also (b) is the sort of beat reporter who endeavors to fulfill his duties with a spirit of inquiry. He’s also the guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio, recorded live on tape from within Fenway Park’s actual press-box cafeteria.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 30 min play time.)

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Examining the September Call-Ups

September can be a fun time even if your favorite MLB club isn’t in the playoff picture. Expanded rosters at the beginning of the month allow for an influx of prospects, providing hope for the future, as well as a little fall excitement.

Last season saw a number of freshman players produce decent September numbers, including pitchers Wily Peralta (Brewers), Shelby Miller (Cardinals), and Chris Archer (Rays), as well as outfielder Adam Eaton (Diamondbacks). All three hurlers have gone on to have extended roles in 2013 and both Miller and Archer are in the running for the rookie of the year awards in their respective leagues.

Below is a ranking of the best prospects to receive their first promotion to the big leagues during the first two days of September.

1. Nick Castellanos, RF/3B, Tigers: The addition of Castellanos to the active roster was a no-brainer. He was added to the 40-man roster a year earlier than he had to be (to be protected from the Rule 5 draft) but he’s close enough to big-league ready that he’s not going to need all three of his option years.

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Effectively Wild Episode 278: Chris Cotillo on Breaking Trades Before Finishing High School

Ben and Sam talk to MLBDailyDish.com writer Chris Cotillo about how he became a baseball newsbreaker before the age of 18.


Daily Notes: Feat. Sunday’s Notable Call-Ups

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Sunday’s Notable Call-Ups
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Sunday’s Notable Call-Ups
Introduction
Yesterday (Sunday) represented the first day of roster expansion in the league, a period which is often accompanied by a considerable number of promotions for minor leaguers. Below is a haphazardly constructed of four notable players recalled on the first day of September.

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Daily Notes: Danny Salazar Early Afternoon in America

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Danny Salazar Early Afternoon in America
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Danny Salazar Early Afternoon in America
The Purpose of This Post
The purpose of this post is to alert the present site’s readership to how young and hard-throwing matinee idol Danny Salazar is starting this afternoon for Cleveland (in Detroit) at 1:08pm ET.

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Daily Notes: Ft. High-Quality Games for All Your Baseball Needs

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. High-Quality Games for All Your Baseball Needs
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

High-Quality Games for All Your Baseball Needs
Introduction
What the author takes for granted, so far as the reader is concerned, is that he or she is looking for a high-quality baseball experience with no muss and even less fuss. To that end, the author has prepared below a curated list of three of the day’s games.

St. Louis at Pittsburgh, 7:05pm ET
It’s not necessarily a fact, but probably should be, that more men died in the construction of these two cities, combined, than in all of World War I. Uncooperative, history is. What is a fact, however, is how both these clubs are presently deep within the agonizing throes of Playoff Hunt Fever, a condition so mysterious the CDC won’t answer the author’s daily phone calls about it that he’s been making for either three weeks or a month now.

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