Any other year and Jose Fernandez would be getting a lot more attention. The Marlins’ rookie starting pitcher recently turned 21 years old and he was promoted to the major straight from Single-A. It was, at least, advanced Single-A, but his experience there was all of 55 innings. Now he’s up to 24 big-league starts, and he has baseball’s third-lowest ERA. Worse than Matt Harvey and Clayton Kershaw but not worse than any others. Fernandez has averaged better than a strikeout an inning, and he’s seen the Marlins go 15-9 in his starts. In all other starts, they’ve gone 33-66.

Young and dominant, Fernandez regularly runs his fastball up to the plate in the mid-90 mph range; occasionally, he scrapes 98 mph and 99 mph. Off of that heat, he throws a breaking ball he’s in love with, and he also mixes in a changeup that’s generated strong results through its first several months. Fernandez was promoted with more or less a complete, big-league-caliber repertoire, so you wouldn’t think he’d need to add yet another weapon. But starting against the Dodgers in Miami Monday night, Fernandez threw a thing he hadn’t thrown before, to the surprise of many.

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Ben and Sam reevaluate whether the Marlins’ early promotion of Jose Fernandez made sense, then talk about where Robinson Cano will end up.

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You’re making decisions all of the time, even if you might not realize it. You decided, for example, to click on this post. You’ve decided, for another example, to continue reading this post, despite the first couple sentences. You decided where to browse, and what to wear, and when to scratch your neck, and when not to get up to take a walk to get a break from the computer. You are a decision-making machine, but most of your decisions are made quickly and quietly, without other people being made aware. Usually it’s not really their business.

Baseball umpires are also making decisions all of the time. They make ordinary decisions like how to stand up and when to rub their eyes, but they also make decisions pertaining to the gameplay. These decisions affect other people, and they’re made consciously and deliberately, with future decisions resting upon current decisions. A baseball game requires constant umpire decisions in order to proceed, and they’re not always obvious, not always black and white. Many can be questioned, reasonably, which adds certain stresses to the work. Sunday was an interesting day in baseball umpiring. Let’s quickly examine four questionable decisions, and remark on their egregiousness. We’ll go in ascending order.

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Even after their big offseason moves, the Blue Jays were not the consensus pick to win the 2013 American League East, as three or even four teams seemed to have a good shot. Very few, however, probably thought the Jays would be the one team left out of the race almost from the start. Yet here we are in the middle of August, and Toronto is the only team in the division under .500, a distant seven and a half games behind the fourth-place Yankees. The litany of problems is well-known: the starting pitching has been terrible, Jose Reyes got hurt, and more. Not every player has been disappointing, however. Colby Rasmus, who came to the Jays in a 2011 trade with the Cardinals, is having his best season since 2010. Indeed, his performance this year resembles that 2010 season in multiple ways.

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Today’s article will concern the “battery effect” and its far reaching influences on passed balls and wild pitches. However, before we delve in, I will fill you in on the details of my previous research as a reference point for today’s research.

The “Battery Effect”

The “battery effect” is most easily explained as the relationship between the pitcher and the catcher and how they affect each other. The effect is often subtle, but still significant in the big picture.

Let’s dive into the details. My previous study on battery combinations included investigating which of the two battery mates — the pitcher or the catcher — deserved the credit for catching a runner. The basic take away from this research was, surprisingly, that the pitcher had more of  a profound effect on the caught stealing percent of the battery. To measure this effect I ran a regression of the pitcher’s CS% — caught stealing percentage — on the battery’s CS%, and vice versa for catchers.  

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Just so no one’s offended, I want to make one thing very clear: I am not here to be overly critical of Tyson Ross, baseball player. Tyson Ross is a pretty good baseball player, who’s succeeding at his primary job. Right now he’s sitting on an ERA in the mid-2s. Over eight starts with the Padres, he’s averaged a strikeout an inning. He can run his fastball up to 95 or 96, and he’s still young, and he’s a righty who manages to keep lefties on the ground. The Padres added Ross for Andy Parrino and Andrew Werner, and right now they’re probably thrilled. Neither Parrino nor Werner looks like a loss, and Ross might be helping San Diego for a while.

On top of that, Ross has a surprisingly dangerous swing at the plate. Before reaching the majors, Ross hadn’t swung a bat since high school, but he looks like he knows what he’s doing, even if he can be exposed by breaking stuff. He takes a strong enough hack to get announcers’ attention. Recently he lined a single off Zack Wheeler. He’s hit a couple line drives off Patrick Corbin, and he slammed a Clayton Kershaw pitch off the wall in center field. When Ross swings and connects, he can put a legitimate charge into the baseball, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him one day club a home run.

But, boy oh boy, has Tyson Ross ever sucked at bunting.

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Danny Salazar Night in the Americas
2. Promotion Watch 2013: Xander Bogaerts
3. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
4. Today’s Complete Schedule

Danny Salazar Night in the Americas
The Purpose of This Post
The purpose of this post is to announce — such that residents of the Americas (plural) be made aware — to announce that today is Danny Salazar Night in all their respective countries.

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Ben and Sam banter about the Saber Seminar, then discuss Clayton Kershaw’s odds of induction into the Hall and the best-ever years for young players.

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I recently posed a question to 10 players. It was a question that doesn’t have an easy answer. Given the subjectivity involved, it doesn’t even have a right answer.

What is the best stat to evaluate pitchers?

Their responses are listed below in alphabetical order. Read the rest of this entry »