2014 Payroll Allocation, By Position

In Part One of this series, published yesterday, I ranked the projected 2014 Opening Day payrolls, estimated the number of pre-arbitration players on each Opening Day roster, and calculated the percentage of each team’s payroll attributed to the highest paid player.

Today, in Part Two, I break down the payrolls even further, into four component parts: the starting rotation, the starting lineup, the bullpen and the bench. In so doing, I made a judgment on who was likely to slot into these roles to start the season. FanGraphs’ Depth Charts and MLB Depth Charts were my go-to sources, but I made a deliberate decision to exclude all non-roster invitees from Opening Day rosters, as those players’ salaries aren’t included on Cot’s Contracts. Invariably, some of my judgment calls will be wrong. Feel free to note those in the comments, as many did yesterday in Part One.

How much will teams spend on their starting rotation, as a percentage of the overall payroll:

Before we get to the numbers, a note about methodology. Several teams have starters who are on the disabled list. On the Los Angeles Dodgers, for example, Chad Billingsley and Josh Beckett will be sidelined for the part of the season. I included their salaries as part of the Dodgers’ Opening Day starting rotation because to exclude them would have presented misleading information on how much the Dodgers are spending on starting pitchers this season.

Now, the numbers, in chart form:

Num	Team	2014 Payroll	Starters’ Combined Salary	Starters as % of Payroll
1	Phillies	$175,500,000	$80,675,000	46.10%
2	Giants	$147,000,000	$57,800,000	39.30%
3	Brewers	$100,500,000	$38,825,000	38.60%
4	Twins	$82,500,000	$31,580,000	38.30%
5	Tigers	$161,000,000	$60,325,000	37.50%
6	Mariners	$87,500,000	$31,857,143	36.40%
7	Dodgers	$223,000,000	$77,400,000	34.70%
8	Red Sox	$155,000,000	$51,525,000	33.25%
9	Blue Jays	$136,000,000	$44,700,000	32.90%
10	Cubs	$89,000,000	$29,245,000	32.85%
11	Yankees	$197,500,000	$64,800,000	32.80%
12	Pirates	$71,500,000	$23,000,000	32.40%
13	Astros	$49,000,000	$15,600,000	31.85%
14	Reds	$106,000,000	$33,625,000	31.70%
15	Rockies	$91,000,000	$26,062,500	28.65%
16	Royals	$91,000,000	$25,050,000	27.50%
17	Rays	$75,500,000	$20,225,000	26.80%
18	Cardinals	$108,500,000	$28,875,000	26.60%
19	Diamondbacks	$108,000,000	$28,650,000	26.50%
20	Padres	$86,000,000	$21,150,000	24.60%
21	White Sox	$89,000,000	$21,750,000	24.50%
22	Nationals	$130,500,000	$30,275,000	23.20%
23	Mets	$82,000,000	$18,675,000	22.75%
24	Angels	$151,000,000	$34,200,000	22.65%
25	Orioles	$105,000,000	$22,705,333	21.60%
26	Rangers	$131,000,000	$27,000,000	21.10%
27	Indians	$80,000,000	$13,200,000	16.50%
28	Athletics	$79,000,000	$11,000,000	13.90%
29	Braves	$96,000,000	$12,600,000	13.10%
30	Marlins	$42,500,000	$3,000,000	7.10%

And in graph form [Note: after the post published, I edited the chart to better reflect the Pirates’ spending on rotation, given the Astros’ payment to the Pirates for $5.5 million in salary for Wandy Rodriguez. The graph does not contain that change.]:

Even with Ryan Howard’s bloated contract, and expensive deals with aging veterans Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley, the Phillies will still spend close to 50% of their payroll this season on starting pitching. Their recent A.J. Burnett signing pushed that number up significantly, but even so, without Burnett, Philadelphia was heavily committed to the rotation.

On the other end, the Miami Marlins will field four starters at the league minimum and one — Jacob Turner — at only $1 million. The Oakland Athletics will be the only other team to feature four pre-arbitration starting pitchers; the A’s overall spending on starters is higher than the Marlins due to Scott Kazmir’s $9 million contract. The New York Mets would have been close to the A’s situation if Matt Harvey hadn’t required Tommy John surgery, which pushed the team to add Bartolo Colon on a 2-year/$20 million deal.

Five teams will feature starting rotations with no pre-arbitration pitchers: the Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants and Dodgers. With Derek Holland and Matt Harrison still recovering from injuries, the Texas Rangers may start the season with several pre-arbitration starters in their rotation, but the team is still on the hook for six major-league salaries for the rotation.

How much will teams spend on their starting lineup, as a percentage of the overall payroll:

The Dodgers, again, presented tough choices, given their outfield situation. I included Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig in LA’s starting outfield with Andre Ethier coming off the bench. If you think Ethier will start, you’d have the Dodgers with a lower starting lineup number and a higher bench number. As it is, with Ethier coming off the bench, the Dodgers have the most expensive bench in the league this season.

The numbers, in chart form:

Rank	Team	Projected 2014 OD Payroll	Starting Lineup Combined Salary	Starting Lineup As % of Payroll
1	Rangers	$131,000,000	$84,675,000	64.60%
2	Mets	$82,000,000	$52,950,000	64.60%
3	Braves	$96,000,000	$61,442,375	64%
4	Indians	$80,000,000	$51,075,000	63.80%
5	Orioles	$105,000,000	$65,171,667	62.10%
6	Yankees	$197,500,000	$117,867,857	59.80%
7	Cardinals	$108,500,000	$57,900,000	53.40%
8	Rockies	$91,000,000	$48,528,571	53.30%
9	Nationals	$130,500,000	$65,616,490	50.50%
10	Brewers	$100,500,000	$50,450,000	50.20%
11	Marlins	$42,500,000	$21,350,000	50.20%
12	White Sox	$89,000,000	$44,542,000	50%
13	Diamondbacks	$108,000,000	$52,750,000	48.80%
14	Tigers	$161,000,000	$77,925,000	48.40%
15	Athletics	$79,000,000	$38,150,000	48.30%
16	Angels	$151,000,000	$72,125,000	47.80%
17	Blue Jays	$136,000,000	$65,000,000	47.80%
18	Pirates	$71,500,000	$33,425,333	46.70%
19	Mariners	$87,500,000	$39,957,500	45.70%
20	Twins	$82,500,000	$37,600,000	45.60%
21	Dodgers	$223,000,000	$100,970,000	45.30%
22	Rays	$75,500,000	$33,995,000	45%
23	Red Sox	$155,000,000	$67,375,000	43.50%
24	Giants	$147,000,000	$61,837,778	42.10%
25	Padres	$86,000,000	$36,225,000	42.10%
26	Reds	$106,000,000	$43,541,667	41.10%
27	Phillies	$175,500,000	$70,450,000	40.25%
28	Royals	$91,000,000	$30,300,000	33.30%
29	Astros	$49,000,000	$14,737,000	30%
30	Cubs	$89,000,000	$18,892,857	21.20%

And in graph form:

Look at the outliers. The Cubs will spend just more than 20% of their payroll on their starting lineup. Right fielder Nate Schierholtz — who was a platoon player on the Giants — will be the second-highest paid position player with a salary of $5 million. On the Astros, pitcher Scott Feldman’s $12 million salary is nearly a quarter of the payroll, which pushes down the percentage spent offensive players.

What about the DH? American League teams have nine players in their starting lineups; National League teams have only eight. You’d expect — or at least I expected — to see more AL teams at the top of the rankings. But of the top 15 teams in spending on starting lineups, eight are NL teams.

How much will teams spend on their bullpen, as a percentage of the overall payroll:

Every team has an active bullpen competition in spring training, so my Opening Day roster picks are likely to be off for a number of teams. But that shouldn’t change the payroll percentage numbers too much, as most of the guys fighting for the last few bullpen spots are likely to be pre-arb or otherwise inexpensive players.

The numbers, in chart form:

Rank	Team	Projected 2014 Opening Day Payroll	Bullpen Combined Salary	Bullpen As % Payroll
1	Rays	$75,500,000	$17,669,750	23.40%
2	Athletics	$79,000,000	$17,840,000	22.60%
3	Royals	$91,000,000	$18,522,500	20.40%
4	Marlins	$42,500,000	$8,450,000	19.90%
5	Padres	$86,000,000	$16,600,000	19.30%
6	Nationals	$130,500,000	$25,125,000	19.25%
7	Reds	$106,000,000	$17,050,000	17%
8	Diamondbacks	$108,000,000	$17,975,000	16.60%
9	Rockies	$91,000,000	$14,950,000	16.40%
10	Cubs	$89,000,000	$14,375,000	16.20%
11	Astros	$49,000,000	$7,500,000	15.30%
12	Angels	$151,000,000	$22,887,500	15.20%
13	White Sox	$89,000,000	$13,350,000	15%
14	Giants	$147,000,000	$21,845,000	14.90%
15	Dodgers	$223,000,000	$32,900,000	14.75%
16	Twins	$82,500,000	$11,435,000	13.90%
17	Pirates	$71,500,000	$9,975,000	13.80%
18	Phillies	$175,500,000	$24,000,000	13.70%
19	Red Sox	$155,000,000	$20,400,000	13.20%
20	Indians	$80,000,000	$9,900,000	12.40%
21	Orioles	$105,000,000	$12,850,000	12.20%
22	Cardinals	$108,500,000	$13,000,000	12%
23	Mariners	$87,500,000	$10,250,000	11.80%
24	Braves	$96,000,000	$11,240,000	11.70%
25	Tigers	$161,000,000	$15,737,500	9.80%
26	Blue Jays	$136,000,000	$12,050,000	8.90%
27	Brewers	$100,500,000	$8,700,000	8.70%
28	Mets	$82,000,000	$6,700,000	8.20%
29	Rangers	$131,000,000	$9,000,000	6.90%
30	Yankees	$197,500,000	$12,480,000	6.30%

And in graph form:

The top six teams in this ranking are all small budget teams. And that makes sense, given the rise in relievers’ salaries in the last five years, particularly for “proven closers.” But look at the Nationals. Washington will spend nearly 20% of its payroll on its bullpen, which is an astounding figure for a team with a $130 million payroll.

Even so, the Nationals aren’t even the top spender on their relief corp. That honor goes to the Dodgers, of course, who will spend more on Brian Wilson to set up Kenley Jansen ($10 million), than seven teams will spend on their entire bullpen. And there’s still the matter of Brandon League’s 3-year/$22.5 million contract, now in its second year. That’s a pretty, pretty expensive low-leverage middle reliever.

How much will teams spend on their bench, as a percentage of the overall payroll:

Rank	Team	Projected 2014 Opening Day Payroll	Bench Combined Salary	Bench as % of Payroll
1	Marlins	$42,500,000	$5,800,000	13.60%
2	White Sox	$89,000,000	$9,800,000	11.00%
3	Padres	$86,000,000	$9,337,500	10.90%
4	Indians	$80,000,000	$6,750,000	8.40%
5	Dodgers	$223,000,000	$17,700,000	7.90%
6	Diamondbacks	$108,000,000	$8,250,000	7.60%
7	Rays	$75,500,000	$5,235,000	7.10%
8	Red Sox	$155,000,000	$10,800,000	7.00%
9	Mets	$82,000,000	$5,637,500	6.90%
10	Pirates	$71,500,000	$4,950,000	6.90%
11	Rockies	$91,000,000	$6,100,000	6.70%
12	Athletics	$79,000,000	$4,895,000	6.20%
13	Reds	$106,000,000	$6,360,000	6.00%
14	Astros	$49,000,000	$2,800,000	5.70%
15	Cardinals	$108,500,000	$6,040,000	5.60%
16	Nationals	$130,500,000	$7,200,000	5.50%
17	Cubs	$89,000,000	$4,900,000	5.50%
18	Mariners	$87,500,000	$4,800,000	5.50%
19	Yankees	$197,500,000	$9,700,000	4.90%
20	Braves	$96,000,000	$4,590,000	4.80%
21	Tigers	$161,000,000	$7,500,000	4.70%
22	Blue Jays	$136,000,000	$5,250,000	3.90%
23	Giants	$147,000,000	$5,415,000	3.70%
24	Royals	$91,000,000	$2,955,000	3.20%
25	Rangers	$131,000,000	$3,500,000	2.70%
26	Phillies	$175,500,000	$4,612,500	2.60%
27	Brewers	$100,500,000	$2,500,000	2.50%
28	Twins	$82,500,000	$2,000,000	2.40%
29	Orioles	$105,000,000	$2,350,000	2.20%
30	Angels	$151,000,000	$2,000,000	1.30%

And in graph form:

I’ve searched and searched for a pattern to emerge with these bench payroll numbers, and I don’t see much. On average, teams will spend just under $6 million on their bench, so the Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers and Nationals — among the big spending teams — and the White Sox, Indians, Padres and Diamondbacks — among the low spending teams — are on the high end. Again, I expected to see bigger numbers from NL teams because they have a five-man bench, while AL teams have only four, with the DH taking up the extra spot in the starting lineup. But that didn’t show itself in the actual numbers.

Putting all the numbers together in one chart:

The moment you’ve all been waiting for. No? I guess you’re not as much of a numbers geek as I am.

We return to the chart ranking the projected Opening Day payrolls, and give you the percentages for rotation, starting lineup, bullpen and bench. Before you start hollering in the comments, some of the percentages will add up to more than 100%. From what I can see, that’s largely the result of using rounded numbers and then adding those rounded numbers together. Obviously, if I made an egregious mistake, tell me in the comments. But save yourself the energy on “Minor nitpick but the Yankees’ numbers add up to 102%.”

Rank	Team	Projected 2014 Payroll	Rotation as % of Payroll	Starting Lineup as % of Payroll	Bullpen as % Payroll	Bench as % of Payroll
1	Dodgers	$223,000,000	34.7%	45.3%	14.8%	7.9%
2	Yankees	$197,500,000	32.8%	59.8%	6.3%	4.9%
3	Phillies	$175,500,000	46.1%	40.3%	13.7%	2.6%
4	Tigers	$161,000,000	37.5%	48.4%	9.8%	4.7%
5	Red Sox	$155,000,000	33.3%	43.5%	13.2%	7.0%
6	Angels	$151,000,000	22.7%	47.8%	15.2%	1.3%
7	Giants	$147,000,000	39.3%	42.1%	14.9%	3.7%
8	Blue Jays	$136,000,000	32.9%	47.8%	8.9%	3.9%
9	Rangers	$131,000,000	21.1%	64.6%	6.9%	2.7%
10	Nationals	$130,500,000	23.2%	50.5%	19.3%	5.5%
11	Cardinals	$108,500,000	26.6%	53.4%	12.0%	5.6%
12	Diamondbacks	$108,000,000	26.5%	48.8%	16.6%	7.6%
13	Reds	$106,000,000	31.7%	41.1%	17.0%	6.0%
14	Orioles	$105,000,000	21.6%	62.1%	12.2%	2.2%
15	Brewers	$100,500,000	38.6%	50.2%	8.7%	2.5%
16	Braves	$96,000,000	13.1%	64.0%	11.7%	4.8%
17	Rockies	$91,000,000	28.7%	53.3%	20.4%	6.7%
18	Royals	$91,000,000	27.5%	33.3%	16.4%	3.2%
19	Cubs	$89,000,000	32.9%	21.2%	16.2%	5.5%
20	White Sox	$89,000,000	24.5%	50%	15.0%	11%
21	Mariners	$87,500,000	36.4%	45.7%	11.8%	5.5%
22	Padres	$86,000,000	24.6%	42.1%	19.3%	10.9%
23	Twins	$82,500,000	38.3%	45.6%	13.9%	2.4%
24	Mets	$82,000,000	22.8%	64.6%	8.2%	6.9%
25	Indians	$80,000,000	16.5%	63.8%	12.4%	8.4%
26	Athletics	$79,000,000	13.9%	48.3%	22.6%	6.2%
27	Rays	$75,500,000	26.8%	45.0%	23.4%	7.1%
28	Pirates	$71,500,000	32.4%	46.7%	13.8%	6.9%
29	Astros	$49,000,000	31.9%	30.0%	15.3%	5.7%
30	Marlins	$42,500,000	7.1%	50.2%	19.9%	13.6%

*********

Two postscripts:

A big, big thank you to my colleague Bill Petti for the graphs. Yes, a writer at FanGraphs is graphically-challenged.

Several readers left good comments on Part One with suggestions of other ways to break down the salary numbers. Please leave your suggestions below. I will review the suggestions and write a follow-up post with additional analysis.