2014 ZiPS Projections – Atlanta Braves

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Boston / Cleveland / Philadelphia / St. Louis.

Batters
Of some interest this offseason will be how various projection systems attend to the quite possibly anomalous Chris Johnson. With nearly 2,000 major-league plate appearances now recorded, Atlanta’s third baseman has a career BABIP of .361 — i.e. about the highest figure one will find from any batter with a sample of that magnitude. ZiPS projects Johnson to record a .338 BABIP in 2014; Oliver and Steamer, .345 and .342, respectively.

Johnson will rely on his batted-ball profile to remain even an average player in 2014, however, it appears. ZiPS projects him to post something between one and two wins — a roughly equivalent total to fellow infielder Dan Uggla, whose 2013 campaign was much less successful. Both players are projected to post nearly league-average offensive lines. Rather, it’s their defensive shortcomings for which they suffer most significantly.

Pitchers
In Mike Minor, Kris Medlen, and Julio Teheran, Atlanta has three pitchers projected to add about 11 wins above replacement in 2014 and yet likely only to make about $10 million (assuming the former two pitchers receive roughly their projected arbitration salaries according to Matt Swartz’s model). Paying about $1 million per win is what is commonly referred to as “the best possible strategy” by general managers, one assumes.

After that triumvirate, there’s less clarity. Brandon Beachy has been an above-average pitcher in the majors on a per-inning basis. Of some trouble for him has been recording a lot of those (i.e. innings) in a single season. Alex Wood, whose mechanics are effing deligtful, has been little else but excellent in his short professional career.

Alex Wood (to Troy Tulowitzki):

Bench/Prospects
Should Dan Uggla’s difficulties continue into 2014, there are signs that Tommy La Stella would make for an entirely adequate replacement at second base. He and catcher Christian Bethancourt are, according to ZiPS, the two field players most prepared to contribute at the major-league level. Among pitchers, ready help is more sparse, although right-handed starters Aaron Northcraft and J.R. Graham might able to provide something better than replacement-level innings if summoned from the minors.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Atlantans, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

***

Batters, Assorted Other

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.