2014 ZiPS Projections – Baltimore Orioles

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Baltimore Orioles. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Boston / Cleveland / Philadelphia / St. Louis.

Batters
Whether by design or not, Baltimore appears to be doing a bit of work with the stars-and-scrubs model of roster construction at the moment. Chris Davis, J.J. Hardy, Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Matt Wieters: these are the names of five Oriole position players who are projected to record something better than three wins in 2014. Meanwhile, no other batter both (a) presently employed by Baltimore and also (b) expected to begin the season as a starter — no other such player is projected by ZiPS to produce anything better than even one win.

Provided the club is still looking to add talent, this actually isn’t an entirely unenviable state of affairs. Where it might be difficult to upgrade a roster full entirely of average players, there are very clear means by which to improve this roster. Like at DH, for example. Or second base, for other example. Or left field. Or even right field, where starter Nick Markakis has managed just three wins over the last three seasons.

Pitchers
Conveniently for the narrative created by the author above, the Baltimore starting rotation is constructed in almost the exact opposite way as its field players. Where there’s a considerable gap in talent between the best and worst of the latter, the former is — according to ZiPS, at least — composed of pitchers likely to produce similar outcomes (if by different means). Here, from best to worst, are the projected ERA minuses (“ERA-s,” plural?) of the pitchers most likely to begin the season in the O’s rotation: 99, 100, 100, 103, 104. That, in the event that the reader is unacquainted with arithmetic, is only a five-point difference between starter No. 1 and No. 5. Not a bad thing, that, but indicative of a club lacking in high-end starters.

Insofar as it won’t feature Jim Johnson as closer, the Baltimore relief corps will have changed entering 2014. Insofar as Johnson-clone Ryan Webb — signed for two years and $4.5 million after being non-tendered by Miami — insofar as Webb will pitch for Baltimore, the relief corps will actually remain largely unchanged. Generally average, is what that would appear to mean.

Bench/Prospects
One will note the author’s careful wording in the Batters section above regarding those field players who are projected by ZiPS to produce less than a win in 2014. The wording is necessary, on account of there are actually two players in the organization, Michael Ohlman and Jonathan Schoop, projected to approach league-average baseball value in 2014. The former is a catcher/corner-type; the latter, an infielder who’s split his minor-league career between second and short. Neither appears likely to begin the season, however, with a substantial role at the major-league level. Among pitchers, one finds celebrated prospect Dylan Bundy’s name among those projected here. He’s expected to return at some point in the middle of the season following Tommy John surgery.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Orioles, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Manny Machado	R	21	3B	684	84	173	43	5	19	80	8	6
Matt Wieters	B	28	C	573	62	129	28	0	21	80	2	0
J.J. Hardy	R	31	SS	612	70	150	26	1	22	72	1	1
Adam Jones	R	28	CF	662	88	172	32	2	28	92	13	5
Chris Davis	L	28	1B	612	83	145	27	1	41	107	3	3
Michael Ohlman	R	23	C	388	42	92	20	2	8	39	4	0
Jonathan Schoop	R	22	2B	471	55	107	19	1	15	51	3	4
Michael Morse	R	32	RF	427	52	100	19	0	20	57	0	1
Nate McLouth	L	32	LF	482	57	103	21	3	11	35	17	4
Ryan Flaherty	L	27	2B	391	39	84	16	2	13	47	3	2
Danny Valencia	R	29	3B	513	55	123	29	2	16	68	2	4
Nick Markakis	L	30	RF	639	72	159	29	2	12	62	5	2
Cord Phelps	B	27	2B	475	51	104	21	3	10	50	5	4
Jason Pridie	L	30	CF	368	36	80	13	2	10	35	6	2
Lew Ford	R	37	CF	198	22	45	12	1	7	24	2	1
Steve Clevenger	L	28	C	298	27	70	14	1	4	27	0	1
Luis Exposito	R	27	C	319	30	67	17	0	7	31	0	1
Jemile Weeks	B	27	2B	592	67	129	20	7	4	38	17	6
Chris Snyder	R	33	C	260	26	50	8	0	9	33	0	1
Steve Pearce	R	31	DH	223	23	47	10	0	7	27	2	1
Trayvon Robinson	B	26	CF	478	50	95	17	2	13	47	15	6
Brian Roberts	B	36	2B	214	21	48	9	1	4	25	3	1
Alexi Casilla	B	29	2B	243	30	54	12	2	1	21	13	2
Conor Jackson	R	32	RF	214	21	47	10	0	4	19	2	1
Henry Urrutia	L	27	RF	428	45	114	17	2	9	41	1	1
Nolan Reimold	R	30	DH	257	29	54	8	1	10	28	3	1
Taylor Teagarden	R	30	C	143	11	25	4	0	4	14	0	0
Wilson Betemit	B	32	3B	253	26	56	12	1	7	27	1	1
Glynn Davis	R	22	CF	496	43	106	16	2	1	28	22	12
Chris Dickerson	L	32	DH	282	32	55	12	1	6	23	10	2
Francisco Peguero	R	26	RF	454	51	111	15	4	7	47	8	3
Brandon Wood	R	29	SS	313	27	61	12	1	6	28	1	0
Christian Walker	R	23	1B	486	48	122	23	0	9	45	3	4
Chih-Hsien Chiang	L	26	RF	531	50	121	29	2	10	52	2	2
Brenden Webb	L	24	RF	452	39	72	15	2	8	33	9	6

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Manny Machado	684	5.4%	16.4%	.173	.304	.272	.314	.446	.327
Matt Wieters	573	8.6%	18.3%	.177	.273	.250	.314	.427	.319
J.J. Hardy	612	5.6%	13.9%	.165	.275	.263	.304	.428	.315
Adam Jones	662	4.2%	19.3%	.194	.308	.277	.317	.471	.342
Chris Davis	612	9.0%	30.9%	.279	.326	.267	.340	.546	.370
Michael Ohlman	388	8.2%	25.3%	.137	.340	.262	.327	.399	.324
Jonathan Schoop	471	5.9%	20.8%	.153	.286	.248	.301	.400	.306
Michael Morse	427	5.9%	24.6%	.201	.295	.254	.307	.454	.328
Nate McLouth	482	9.1%	16.6%	.141	.273	.242	.319	.383	.310
Ryan Flaherty	391	6.1%	24.3%	.164	.281	.234	.288	.398	.296
Danny Valencia	513	4.9%	18.3%	.167	.283	.254	.288	.421	.307
Nick Markakis	639	8.1%	11.0%	.120	.293	.276	.336	.395	.320
Cord Phelps	475	8.2%	20.2%	.133	.288	.242	.307	.374	.299
Jason Pridie	368	6.0%	25.3%	.137	.292	.234	.281	.371	.286
Lew Ford	198	5.6%	18.7%	.189	.268	.243	.288	.432	.314
Steve Clevenger	298	6.7%	15.1%	.101	.288	.254	.302	.355	.288
Luis Exposito	319	6.0%	22.9%	.128	.274	.226	.273	.355	.276
Jemile Weeks	592	8.4%	16.6%	.087	.291	.244	.313	.331	.289
Chris Snyder	260	10.0%	27.3%	.152	.270	.217	.297	.370	.290
Steve Pearce	223	10.3%	21.1%	.161	.284	.244	.333	.404	.320
Trayvon Robinson	478	7.9%	33.3%	.138	.312	.219	.283	.357	.283
Brian Roberts	214	7.5%	15.9%	.118	.277	.246	.300	.364	.294
Alexi Casilla	243	6.6%	14.4%	.087	.285	.247	.297	.333	.283
Conor Jackson	214	8.4%	14.5%	.114	.270	.244	.313	.358	.297
Henry Urrutia	428	4.9%	18.0%	.118	.327	.281	.315	.399	.314
Nolan Reimold	257	7.8%	24.1%	.172	.270	.233	.296	.405	.306
Taylor Teagarden	143	6.3%	38.5%	.121	.288	.189	.246	.311	.248
Wilson Betemit	253	8.3%	28.5%	.152	.320	.243	.304	.396	.305
Glynn Davis	496	6.9%	23.8%	.051	.312	.233	.290	.284	.259
Chris Dickerson	282	8.9%	28.7%	.127	.293	.218	.292	.345	.289
Francisco Peguero	454	2.9%	20.3%	.101	.307	.255	.278	.356	.277
Brandon Wood	313	4.8%	27.2%	.109	.268	.208	.247	.317	.247
Christian Walker	486	4.7%	18.1%	.110	.314	.269	.311	.380	.303
Chih-Hsien Chiang	531	3.8%	21.5%	.125	.291	.241	.272	.366	.277
Brenden Webb	452	10.2%	39.8%	.109	.305	.182	.274	.290	.256

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Manny Machado	684	5.1	104	14	4.5	Jose Lopez
Matt Wieters	573	4.9	100	6	3.8	Todd Hundley
J.J. Hardy	612	4.8	97	8	3.4	David Bell
Adam Jones	662	5.6	111	-5	3.3	Jacque Jones
Chris Davis	612	6.8	136	-2	3.2	Mo Vaughn
Michael Ohlman	388	4.9	97	-6	1.5	Joe Torre
Jonathan Schoop	471	4.2	89	1	1.2	Casey Webster
Michael Morse	427	5.0	104	-9	1.1	Dan Ford
Nate McLouth	482	4.6	90	3	1.0	Trenidad Hubbard
Ryan Flaherty	391	4.0	85	2	0.9	Dave Baker
Danny Valencia	513	4.3	90	-3	0.9	Juan Uribe
Nick Markakis	639	5.0	99	-4	0.8	Mule Haas
Cord Phelps	475	4.0	85	-1	0.8	Chris Demetral
Jason Pridie	368	3.7	76	3	0.7	Jalal Leach
Lew Ford	198	4.4	93	-3	0.6	Brian Jordan
Steve Clevenger	298	3.8	79	-4	0.4	Cody Mckay
Luis Exposito	319	3.3	69	-1	0.4	Alvin Colina
Jemile Weeks	592	3.8	76	-3	0.4	Nelson Liriano
Chris Snyder	260	3.7	81	-4	0.4	Steve Yeager
Steve Pearce	223	4.8	100	0	0.3	Bobby Kielty
Trayvon Robinson	478	3.6	73	-1	0.2	Jed Hansen
Brian Roberts	214	4.0	80	-2	0.1	Rene Gonzales
Alexi Casilla	243	4.0	72	-2	0.1	Steve Hecht
Conor Jackson	214	4.0	83	0	0.0	Chris Pritchett
Henry Urrutia	428	4.7	93	-5	0.0	Don Mueller
Nolan Reimold	257	4.3	89	0	-0.1	Jay Gainer
Taylor Teagarden	143	2.6	51	-2	-0.2	Jayhawk Owens
Wilson Betemit	253	4.3	89	-8	-0.2	Tyler Houston
Glynn Davis	496	2.9	58	4	-0.3	Deron McCue
Chris Dickerson	282	3.7	73	0	-0.4	Terrell Lowery
Francisco Peguero	454	3.6	71	3	-0.4	Alexis Rios
Brandon Wood	313	2.7	52	0	-0.5	Lou Benbow
Christian Walker	486	4.2	87	-2	-0.5	Billy Butler
Chih-Hsien Chiang	531	3.5	72	1	-0.8	Greg Monda
Brenden Webb	452	2.6	54	6	-0.9	Jeremy Harts

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Chris Tillman	R	26	32	32	187.0	167	66	27	176	92	86
Wei-Yin Chen	L	28	27	27	160.0	129	46	21	161	79	74
Bud Norris	R	29	30	29	173.3	158	64	22	172	89	83
Miguel Gonzalez	R	30	29	24	150.7	117	49	20	147	75	70
Kevin Gausman	R	23	27	27	147.3	129	36	18	151	75	70
Mike Wright	R	24	25	25	137.0	93	36	17	148	73	68
Scott Feldman	R	31	26	22	128.7	93	38	18	132	68	64
Jason Hammel	R	31	25	22	132.7	100	48	18	138	73	68
Darren O’Day	R	31	66	0	59.3	62	15	7	51	24	22
Dylan Bundy	R	21	13	13	78.0	59	33	10	81	43	40
Zach Britton	L	26	26	25	133.3	93	61	17	145	78	73
Eduardo Rodriguez	L	21	23	23	120.3	76	49	15	132	71	66
Brian Matusz	L	27	69	0	59.0	58	21	6	54	26	24
Tommy Hunter	R	27	70	0	81.0	69	17	12	79	39	36
Francisco Rodriguez	R	32	62	0	58.7	61	23	7	53	27	25
Troy Patton	L	28	51	0	58.7	47	16	7	58	28	26
T.J. McFarland	L	25	31	14	109.7	69	45	13	122	65	61
Ryan Webb	R	28	64	0	69.0	46	24	7	71	34	32
Kelvin De La Cruz	L	25	53	0	68.3	63	37	7	64	34	32
Zech Zinicola	R	29	36	0	45.7	35	16	5	47	24	22
Tim Bascom	R	29	25	13	88.3	55	46	10	96	55	51
Oliver Drake	R	27	32	0	42.7	34	18	5	42	22	21
Tsuyoshi Wada	L	33	17	17	93.3	70	41	16	103	60	56
Edgmer Escalona	R	27	47	0	57.3	48	20	9	57	31	29
Eddie Gamboa	R	29	24	18	103.7	61	43	15	117	66	62
Brad Brach	R	28	71	0	74.0	71	31	12	73	41	38
Tim Berry	L	23	26	25	132.3	76	50	19	155	86	80
Daniel Schlereth	L	28	24	0	24.0	22	18	3	23	15	14
Jon Rauch	R	35	41	0	36.3	28	12	7	39	22	21
Steve Johnson	R	26	27	18	100.3	84	57	17	105	66	62
Nick Additon	L	26	22	20	112.7	81	49	21	124	75	70
Devin Jones	R	23	26	19	117.3	75	43	21	136	78	73
Daniel McCutchen	R	31	39	3	61.7	41	25	10	69	40	37
Brock Huntzinger	R	25	41	7	78.3	55	38	13	87	51	48
Mike Belfiore	L	25	39	0	70.3	58	36	12	75	45	42
Chris Jones	L	25	41	0	68.0	41	40	8	76	44	41
Jake Pettit	L	27	24	23	124.3	70	46	23	148	88	82
Tim Alderson	R	25	39	4	80.0	56	33	16	91	56	52
Tyler Wilson	R	24	35	25	152.7	96	59	29	178	108	101
Zach Clark	R	30	24	22	116.7	50	71	17	141	87	81
Josh Stinson	R	26	38	21	128.3	67	79	20	148	93	87
Mark Hendrickson	L	40	31	0	51.3	23	21	11	64	41	38

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Chris Tillman	187.0	803	20.7%	8.2%	.276	4.14	4.40	99	106
Wei-Yin Chen	160.0	687	18.8%	6.7%	.288	4.16	4.19	100	101
Bud Norris	173.3	757	20.9%	8.5%	.297	4.31	4.22	104	101
Miguel Gonzalez	150.7	648	18.0%	7.6%	.277	4.18	4.41	100	106
Kevin Gausman	147.3	629	20.4%	5.7%	.302	4.28	3.79	103	91
Mike Wright	137.0	595	15.6%	6.0%	.297	4.47	4.36	107	105
Scott Feldman	128.7	556	16.8%	6.9%	.284	4.48	4.51	108	108
Jason Hammel	132.7	583	17.2%	8.2%	.290	4.61	4.63	111	111
Darren O’Day	59.3	245	25.2%	6.2%	.283	3.34	3.58	80	86
Dylan Bundy	78.0	348	17.0%	9.5%	.297	4.62	4.75	111	114
Zach Britton	133.3	606	15.4%	10.0%	.299	4.93	4.84	118	116
Eduardo Rodriguez	120.3	542	14.1%	9.0%	.297	4.94	4.87	119	117
Brian Matusz	59.0	252	23.1%	8.5%	.289	3.66	3.64	88	88
Tommy Hunter	81.0	339	20.4%	5.0%	.279	4.00	4.08	96	98
Francisco Rodriguez	58.7	252	24.4%	9.0%	.288	3.84	3.77	92	91
Troy Patton	58.7	250	18.7%	6.5%	.286	3.99	4.00	96	96
T.J. McFarland	109.7	496	13.9%	9.1%	.298	5.01	4.84	120	116
Ryan Webb	69.0	302	15.2%	7.9%	.288	4.17	4.10	100	98
Kelvin De La Cruz	68.3	306	20.5%	12.0%	.291	4.21	4.45	101	107
Zech Zinicola	45.7	200	17.7%	8.1%	.293	4.34	4.34	104	104
Tim Bascom	88.3	407	13.5%	11.2%	.295	5.20	5.20	125	125
Oliver Drake	42.7	189	18.0%	9.7%	.292	4.43	4.60	106	110
Tsuyoshi Wada	93.3	423	16.5%	9.6%	.296	5.40	5.44	130	131
Edgmer Escalona	57.3	249	19.2%	8.1%	.284	4.55	4.52	109	109
Eddie Gamboa	103.7	471	13.0%	9.2%	.294	5.38	5.37	129	129
Brad Brach	74.0	326	21.8%	9.6%	.293	4.62	4.59	111	110
Tim Berry	132.3	602	12.6%	8.3%	.302	5.44	5.30	131	127
Daniel Schlereth	24.0	113	19.0%	16.0%	.291	5.25	5.50	126	132
Jon Rauch	36.3	160	17.2%	7.5%	.288	5.20	5.05	125	121
Steve Johnson	100.3	463	18.1%	12.3%	.293	5.56	5.61	134	135
Nick Additon	112.7	511	15.9%	9.6%	.291	5.59	5.70	134	137
Devin Jones	117.3	531	14.1%	8.0%	.299	5.60	5.45	135	131
Daniel McCutchen	61.7	279	14.6%	8.8%	.295	5.40	5.35	130	129
Brock Huntzinger	78.3	359	15.4%	10.5%	.295	5.51	5.51	133	132
Mike Belfiore	70.3	322	18.2%	11.2%	.297	5.37	5.36	129	129
Chris Jones	68.0	320	12.9%	12.6%	.300	5.43	5.47	130	132
Jake Pettit	124.3	567	12.3%	8.1%	.295	5.94	5.82	143	140
Tim Alderson	80.0	364	15.4%	9.0%	.295	5.85	5.84	141	140
Tyler Wilson	152.7	695	13.8%	8.5%	.296	5.95	5.77	143	139
Zach Clark	116.7	563	8.9%	12.7%	.300	6.25	6.22	150	150
Josh Stinson	128.3	613	10.9%	12.9%	.293	6.10	6.27	147	151

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Chris Tillman	187.0	8.02	3.18	1.30	101	2.7	Kris Benson
Wei-Yin Chen	160.0	7.27	2.59	1.16	100	2.3	Mark Redman
Bud Norris	173.3	8.22	3.34	1.15	97	2.2	Kevin Gross
Miguel Gonzalez	150.7	6.96	2.95	1.20	100	2.1	Jeremy Guthrie
Kevin Gausman	147.3	7.85	2.18	1.09	98	1.9	Carl Pavano
Mike Wright	137.0	6.11	2.34	1.11	94	1.4	Ramiro Mendoza
Scott Feldman	128.7	6.52	2.68	1.23	93	1.3	Dana Kiecker
Jason Hammel	132.7	6.81	3.25	1.24	91	1.1	Omar Olivares
Darren O’Day	59.3	9.37	2.32	1.07	125	0.8	Rafael Betancourt
Dylan Bundy	78.0	6.84	3.81	1.11	91	0.7	Josh Johnson
Zach Britton	133.3	6.29	4.10	1.12	85	0.7	Greg Kubes
Eduardo Rodriguez	120.3	5.70	3.65	1.09	85	0.6	Jake Chapman
Brian Matusz	59.0	8.90	3.27	0.92	114	0.6	Mike Stanton
Tommy Hunter	81.0	7.67	1.88	1.33	105	0.4	Jeff Tam
Francisco Rodriguez	58.7	9.42	3.46	1.12	109	0.4	Todd Jones
Troy Patton	58.7	7.19	2.49	1.08	105	0.3	Mike Venafro
T.J. McFarland	109.7	5.64	3.70	1.10	84	0.2	Jake Chapman
Ryan Webb	69.0	6.00	3.13	0.91	100	0.2	Mark Ross
Kelvin De La Cruz	68.3	8.23	4.85	0.92	99	0.2	Kevin Lovingier
Zech Zinicola	45.7	6.99	3.21	1.08	96	0.1	Jose Silva
Tim Bascom	88.3	5.61	4.64	1.06	80	0.0	Jesse Jefferson
Oliver Drake	42.7	7.15	3.86	1.03	94	0.0	Matt Ryan
Tsuyoshi Wada	93.3	6.72	3.93	1.59	77	-0.1	Darren Oliver
Edgmer Escalona	57.3	7.52	3.16	1.34	92	-0.1	Derek Hasselhoff
Eddie Gamboa	103.7	5.33	3.76	1.33	78	-0.1	Mike Dunne
Brad Brach	74.0	8.64	3.83	1.41	90	-0.2	Kurt Knudsen
Tim Berry	132.3	5.16	3.39	1.32	77	-0.2	Rich Rundles
Daniel Schlereth	24.0	8.06	6.80	1.26	80	-0.2	Mike Kinnunen
Jon Rauch	36.3	6.85	3.00	1.70	80	-0.3	Terry Mathews
Steve Johnson	100.3	7.53	5.11	1.57	75	-0.3	Chris Seelbach
Nick Additon	112.7	6.47	3.90	1.70	75	-0.4	Brent Hoard
Devin Jones	117.3	5.74	3.27	1.58	75	-0.4	Rich Yett
Daniel McCutchen	61.7	5.95	3.59	1.51	77	-0.5	Mike Sullivan
Brock Huntzinger	78.3	6.36	4.32	1.50	76	-0.5	Dennis Konuszewski
Mike Belfiore	70.3	7.47	4.60	1.52	78	-0.8	John Miglio
Chris Jones	68.0	5.46	5.33	1.09	77	-0.8	Brian Adams
Jake Pettit	124.3	5.05	3.34	1.70	70	-0.9	Mike Prochaska
Tim Alderson	80.0	6.29	3.67	1.84	71	-1.0	R.A. Dickey
Tyler Wilson	152.7	5.63	3.48	1.72	70	-1.2	Royal Thomas
Zach Clark	116.7	3.86	5.51	1.27	67	-1.3	Michael Smith
Josh Stinson	128.3	4.70	5.56	1.42	69	-1.3	Jeff Wigdahl
Mark Hendrickson	51.3	3.96	3.72	1.97	63	-1.4	Terry Mulholland

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.