2014 ZiPS Projections – Baltimore Orioles by Carson Cistulli December 11, 2013 After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Baltimore Orioles. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Other Projections: Atlanta / Boston / Cleveland / Philadelphia / St. Louis. Batters Whether by design or not, Baltimore appears to be doing a bit of work with the stars-and-scrubs model of roster construction at the moment. Chris Davis, J.J. Hardy, Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Matt Wieters: these are the names of five Oriole position players who are projected to record something better than three wins in 2014. Meanwhile, no other batter both (a) presently employed by Baltimore and also (b) expected to begin the season as a starter — no other such player is projected by ZiPS to produce anything better than even one win. Provided the club is still looking to add talent, this actually isn’t an entirely unenviable state of affairs. Where it might be difficult to upgrade a roster full entirely of average players, there are very clear means by which to improve this roster. Like at DH, for example. Or second base, for other example. Or left field. Or even right field, where starter Nick Markakis has managed just three wins over the last three seasons. Pitchers Conveniently for the narrative created by the author above, the Baltimore starting rotation is constructed in almost the exact opposite way as its field players. Where there’s a considerable gap in talent between the best and worst of the latter, the former is — according to ZiPS, at least — composed of pitchers likely to produce similar outcomes (if by different means). Here, from best to worst, are the projected ERA minuses (“ERA-s,” plural?) of the pitchers most likely to begin the season in the O’s rotation: 99, 100, 100, 103, 104. That, in the event that the reader is unacquainted with arithmetic, is only a five-point difference between starter No. 1 and No. 5. Not a bad thing, that, but indicative of a club lacking in high-end starters. Insofar as it won’t feature Jim Johnson as closer, the Baltimore relief corps will have changed entering 2014. Insofar as Johnson-clone Ryan Webb — signed for two years and $4.5 million after being non-tendered by Miami — insofar as Webb will pitch for Baltimore, the relief corps will actually remain largely unchanged. Generally average, is what that would appear to mean. Bench/Prospects One will note the author’s careful wording in the Batters section above regarding those field players who are projected by ZiPS to produce less than a win in 2014. The wording is necessary, on account of there are actually two players in the organization, Michael Ohlman and Jonathan Schoop, projected to approach league-average baseball value in 2014. The former is a catcher/corner-type; the latter, an infielder who’s split his minor-league career between second and short. Neither appears likely to begin the season, however, with a substantial role at the major-league level. Among pitchers, one finds celebrated prospect Dylan Bundy’s name among those projected here. He’s expected to return at some point in the middle of the season following Tommy John surgery. Depth Chart Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Orioles, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Manny Machado R 21 3B 684 84 173 43 5 19 80 8 6 Matt Wieters B 28 C 573 62 129 28 0 21 80 2 0 J.J. Hardy R 31 SS 612 70 150 26 1 22 72 1 1 Adam Jones R 28 CF 662 88 172 32 2 28 92 13 5 Chris Davis L 28 1B 612 83 145 27 1 41 107 3 3 Michael Ohlman R 23 C 388 42 92 20 2 8 39 4 0 Jonathan Schoop R 22 2B 471 55 107 19 1 15 51 3 4 Michael Morse R 32 RF 427 52 100 19 0 20 57 0 1 Nate McLouth L 32 LF 482 57 103 21 3 11 35 17 4 Ryan Flaherty L 27 2B 391 39 84 16 2 13 47 3 2 Danny Valencia R 29 3B 513 55 123 29 2 16 68 2 4 Nick Markakis L 30 RF 639 72 159 29 2 12 62 5 2 Cord Phelps B 27 2B 475 51 104 21 3 10 50 5 4 Jason Pridie L 30 CF 368 36 80 13 2 10 35 6 2 Lew Ford R 37 CF 198 22 45 12 1 7 24 2 1 Steve Clevenger L 28 C 298 27 70 14 1 4 27 0 1 Luis Exposito R 27 C 319 30 67 17 0 7 31 0 1 Jemile Weeks B 27 2B 592 67 129 20 7 4 38 17 6 Chris Snyder R 33 C 260 26 50 8 0 9 33 0 1 Steve Pearce R 31 DH 223 23 47 10 0 7 27 2 1 Trayvon Robinson B 26 CF 478 50 95 17 2 13 47 15 6 Brian Roberts B 36 2B 214 21 48 9 1 4 25 3 1 Alexi Casilla B 29 2B 243 30 54 12 2 1 21 13 2 Conor Jackson R 32 RF 214 21 47 10 0 4 19 2 1 Henry Urrutia L 27 RF 428 45 114 17 2 9 41 1 1 Nolan Reimold R 30 DH 257 29 54 8 1 10 28 3 1 Taylor Teagarden R 30 C 143 11 25 4 0 4 14 0 0 Wilson Betemit B 32 3B 253 26 56 12 1 7 27 1 1 Glynn Davis R 22 CF 496 43 106 16 2 1 28 22 12 Chris Dickerson L 32 DH 282 32 55 12 1 6 23 10 2 Francisco Peguero R 26 RF 454 51 111 15 4 7 47 8 3 Brandon Wood R 29 SS 313 27 61 12 1 6 28 1 0 Christian Walker R 23 1B 486 48 122 23 0 9 45 3 4 Chih-Hsien Chiang L 26 RF 531 50 121 29 2 10 52 2 2 Brenden Webb L 24 RF 452 39 72 15 2 8 33 9 6 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA Manny Machado 684 5.4% 16.4% .173 .304 .272 .314 .446 .327 Matt Wieters 573 8.6% 18.3% .177 .273 .250 .314 .427 .319 J.J. Hardy 612 5.6% 13.9% .165 .275 .263 .304 .428 .315 Adam Jones 662 4.2% 19.3% .194 .308 .277 .317 .471 .342 Chris Davis 612 9.0% 30.9% .279 .326 .267 .340 .546 .370 Michael Ohlman 388 8.2% 25.3% .137 .340 .262 .327 .399 .324 Jonathan Schoop 471 5.9% 20.8% .153 .286 .248 .301 .400 .306 Michael Morse 427 5.9% 24.6% .201 .295 .254 .307 .454 .328 Nate McLouth 482 9.1% 16.6% .141 .273 .242 .319 .383 .310 Ryan Flaherty 391 6.1% 24.3% .164 .281 .234 .288 .398 .296 Danny Valencia 513 4.9% 18.3% .167 .283 .254 .288 .421 .307 Nick Markakis 639 8.1% 11.0% .120 .293 .276 .336 .395 .320 Cord Phelps 475 8.2% 20.2% .133 .288 .242 .307 .374 .299 Jason Pridie 368 6.0% 25.3% .137 .292 .234 .281 .371 .286 Lew Ford 198 5.6% 18.7% .189 .268 .243 .288 .432 .314 Steve Clevenger 298 6.7% 15.1% .101 .288 .254 .302 .355 .288 Luis Exposito 319 6.0% 22.9% .128 .274 .226 .273 .355 .276 Jemile Weeks 592 8.4% 16.6% .087 .291 .244 .313 .331 .289 Chris Snyder 260 10.0% 27.3% .152 .270 .217 .297 .370 .290 Steve Pearce 223 10.3% 21.1% .161 .284 .244 .333 .404 .320 Trayvon Robinson 478 7.9% 33.3% .138 .312 .219 .283 .357 .283 Brian Roberts 214 7.5% 15.9% .118 .277 .246 .300 .364 .294 Alexi Casilla 243 6.6% 14.4% .087 .285 .247 .297 .333 .283 Conor Jackson 214 8.4% 14.5% .114 .270 .244 .313 .358 .297 Henry Urrutia 428 4.9% 18.0% .118 .327 .281 .315 .399 .314 Nolan Reimold 257 7.8% 24.1% .172 .270 .233 .296 .405 .306 Taylor Teagarden 143 6.3% 38.5% .121 .288 .189 .246 .311 .248 Wilson Betemit 253 8.3% 28.5% .152 .320 .243 .304 .396 .305 Glynn Davis 496 6.9% 23.8% .051 .312 .233 .290 .284 .259 Chris Dickerson 282 8.9% 28.7% .127 .293 .218 .292 .345 .289 Francisco Peguero 454 2.9% 20.3% .101 .307 .255 .278 .356 .277 Brandon Wood 313 4.8% 27.2% .109 .268 .208 .247 .317 .247 Christian Walker 486 4.7% 18.1% .110 .314 .269 .311 .380 .303 Chih-Hsien Chiang 531 3.8% 21.5% .125 .291 .241 .272 .366 .277 Brenden Webb 452 10.2% 39.8% .109 .305 .182 .274 .290 .256 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp Manny Machado 684 5.1 104 14 4.5 Jose Lopez Matt Wieters 573 4.9 100 6 3.8 Todd Hundley J.J. Hardy 612 4.8 97 8 3.4 David Bell Adam Jones 662 5.6 111 -5 3.3 Jacque Jones Chris Davis 612 6.8 136 -2 3.2 Mo Vaughn Michael Ohlman 388 4.9 97 -6 1.5 Joe Torre Jonathan Schoop 471 4.2 89 1 1.2 Casey Webster Michael Morse 427 5.0 104 -9 1.1 Dan Ford Nate McLouth 482 4.6 90 3 1.0 Trenidad Hubbard Ryan Flaherty 391 4.0 85 2 0.9 Dave Baker Danny Valencia 513 4.3 90 -3 0.9 Juan Uribe Nick Markakis 639 5.0 99 -4 0.8 Mule Haas Cord Phelps 475 4.0 85 -1 0.8 Chris Demetral Jason Pridie 368 3.7 76 3 0.7 Jalal Leach Lew Ford 198 4.4 93 -3 0.6 Brian Jordan Steve Clevenger 298 3.8 79 -4 0.4 Cody Mckay Luis Exposito 319 3.3 69 -1 0.4 Alvin Colina Jemile Weeks 592 3.8 76 -3 0.4 Nelson Liriano Chris Snyder 260 3.7 81 -4 0.4 Steve Yeager Steve Pearce 223 4.8 100 0 0.3 Bobby Kielty Trayvon Robinson 478 3.6 73 -1 0.2 Jed Hansen Brian Roberts 214 4.0 80 -2 0.1 Rene Gonzales Alexi Casilla 243 4.0 72 -2 0.1 Steve Hecht Conor Jackson 214 4.0 83 0 0.0 Chris Pritchett Henry Urrutia 428 4.7 93 -5 0.0 Don Mueller Nolan Reimold 257 4.3 89 0 -0.1 Jay Gainer Taylor Teagarden 143 2.6 51 -2 -0.2 Jayhawk Owens Wilson Betemit 253 4.3 89 -8 -0.2 Tyler Houston Glynn Davis 496 2.9 58 4 -0.3 Deron McCue Chris Dickerson 282 3.7 73 0 -0.4 Terrell Lowery Francisco Peguero 454 3.6 71 3 -0.4 Alexis Rios Brandon Wood 313 2.7 52 0 -0.5 Lou Benbow Christian Walker 486 4.2 87 -2 -0.5 Billy Butler Chih-Hsien Chiang 531 3.5 72 1 -0.8 Greg Monda Brenden Webb 452 2.6 54 6 -0.9 Jeremy Harts *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER Chris Tillman R 26 32 32 187.0 167 66 27 176 92 86 Wei-Yin Chen L 28 27 27 160.0 129 46 21 161 79 74 Bud Norris R 29 30 29 173.3 158 64 22 172 89 83 Miguel Gonzalez R 30 29 24 150.7 117 49 20 147 75 70 Kevin Gausman R 23 27 27 147.3 129 36 18 151 75 70 Mike Wright R 24 25 25 137.0 93 36 17 148 73 68 Scott Feldman R 31 26 22 128.7 93 38 18 132 68 64 Jason Hammel R 31 25 22 132.7 100 48 18 138 73 68 Darren O’Day R 31 66 0 59.3 62 15 7 51 24 22 Dylan Bundy R 21 13 13 78.0 59 33 10 81 43 40 Zach Britton L 26 26 25 133.3 93 61 17 145 78 73 Eduardo Rodriguez L 21 23 23 120.3 76 49 15 132 71 66 Brian Matusz L 27 69 0 59.0 58 21 6 54 26 24 Tommy Hunter R 27 70 0 81.0 69 17 12 79 39 36 Francisco Rodriguez R 32 62 0 58.7 61 23 7 53 27 25 Troy Patton L 28 51 0 58.7 47 16 7 58 28 26 T.J. McFarland L 25 31 14 109.7 69 45 13 122 65 61 Ryan Webb R 28 64 0 69.0 46 24 7 71 34 32 Kelvin De La Cruz L 25 53 0 68.3 63 37 7 64 34 32 Zech Zinicola R 29 36 0 45.7 35 16 5 47 24 22 Tim Bascom R 29 25 13 88.3 55 46 10 96 55 51 Oliver Drake R 27 32 0 42.7 34 18 5 42 22 21 Tsuyoshi Wada L 33 17 17 93.3 70 41 16 103 60 56 Edgmer Escalona R 27 47 0 57.3 48 20 9 57 31 29 Eddie Gamboa R 29 24 18 103.7 61 43 15 117 66 62 Brad Brach R 28 71 0 74.0 71 31 12 73 41 38 Tim Berry L 23 26 25 132.3 76 50 19 155 86 80 Daniel Schlereth L 28 24 0 24.0 22 18 3 23 15 14 Jon Rauch R 35 41 0 36.3 28 12 7 39 22 21 Steve Johnson R 26 27 18 100.3 84 57 17 105 66 62 Nick Additon L 26 22 20 112.7 81 49 21 124 75 70 Devin Jones R 23 26 19 117.3 75 43 21 136 78 73 Daniel McCutchen R 31 39 3 61.7 41 25 10 69 40 37 Brock Huntzinger R 25 41 7 78.3 55 38 13 87 51 48 Mike Belfiore L 25 39 0 70.3 58 36 12 75 45 42 Chris Jones L 25 41 0 68.0 41 40 8 76 44 41 Jake Pettit L 27 24 23 124.3 70 46 23 148 88 82 Tim Alderson R 25 39 4 80.0 56 33 16 91 56 52 Tyler Wilson R 24 35 25 152.7 96 59 29 178 108 101 Zach Clark R 30 24 22 116.7 50 71 17 141 87 81 Josh Stinson R 26 38 21 128.3 67 79 20 148 93 87 Mark Hendrickson L 40 31 0 51.3 23 21 11 64 41 38 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Chris Tillman 187.0 803 20.7% 8.2% .276 4.14 4.40 99 106 Wei-Yin Chen 160.0 687 18.8% 6.7% .288 4.16 4.19 100 101 Bud Norris 173.3 757 20.9% 8.5% .297 4.31 4.22 104 101 Miguel Gonzalez 150.7 648 18.0% 7.6% .277 4.18 4.41 100 106 Kevin Gausman 147.3 629 20.4% 5.7% .302 4.28 3.79 103 91 Mike Wright 137.0 595 15.6% 6.0% .297 4.47 4.36 107 105 Scott Feldman 128.7 556 16.8% 6.9% .284 4.48 4.51 108 108 Jason Hammel 132.7 583 17.2% 8.2% .290 4.61 4.63 111 111 Darren O’Day 59.3 245 25.2% 6.2% .283 3.34 3.58 80 86 Dylan Bundy 78.0 348 17.0% 9.5% .297 4.62 4.75 111 114 Zach Britton 133.3 606 15.4% 10.0% .299 4.93 4.84 118 116 Eduardo Rodriguez 120.3 542 14.1% 9.0% .297 4.94 4.87 119 117 Brian Matusz 59.0 252 23.1% 8.5% .289 3.66 3.64 88 88 Tommy Hunter 81.0 339 20.4% 5.0% .279 4.00 4.08 96 98 Francisco Rodriguez 58.7 252 24.4% 9.0% .288 3.84 3.77 92 91 Troy Patton 58.7 250 18.7% 6.5% .286 3.99 4.00 96 96 T.J. McFarland 109.7 496 13.9% 9.1% .298 5.01 4.84 120 116 Ryan Webb 69.0 302 15.2% 7.9% .288 4.17 4.10 100 98 Kelvin De La Cruz 68.3 306 20.5% 12.0% .291 4.21 4.45 101 107 Zech Zinicola 45.7 200 17.7% 8.1% .293 4.34 4.34 104 104 Tim Bascom 88.3 407 13.5% 11.2% .295 5.20 5.20 125 125 Oliver Drake 42.7 189 18.0% 9.7% .292 4.43 4.60 106 110 Tsuyoshi Wada 93.3 423 16.5% 9.6% .296 5.40 5.44 130 131 Edgmer Escalona 57.3 249 19.2% 8.1% .284 4.55 4.52 109 109 Eddie Gamboa 103.7 471 13.0% 9.2% .294 5.38 5.37 129 129 Brad Brach 74.0 326 21.8% 9.6% .293 4.62 4.59 111 110 Tim Berry 132.3 602 12.6% 8.3% .302 5.44 5.30 131 127 Daniel Schlereth 24.0 113 19.0% 16.0% .291 5.25 5.50 126 132 Jon Rauch 36.3 160 17.2% 7.5% .288 5.20 5.05 125 121 Steve Johnson 100.3 463 18.1% 12.3% .293 5.56 5.61 134 135 Nick Additon 112.7 511 15.9% 9.6% .291 5.59 5.70 134 137 Devin Jones 117.3 531 14.1% 8.0% .299 5.60 5.45 135 131 Daniel McCutchen 61.7 279 14.6% 8.8% .295 5.40 5.35 130 129 Brock Huntzinger 78.3 359 15.4% 10.5% .295 5.51 5.51 133 132 Mike Belfiore 70.3 322 18.2% 11.2% .297 5.37 5.36 129 129 Chris Jones 68.0 320 12.9% 12.6% .300 5.43 5.47 130 132 Jake Pettit 124.3 567 12.3% 8.1% .295 5.94 5.82 143 140 Tim Alderson 80.0 364 15.4% 9.0% .295 5.85 5.84 141 140 Tyler Wilson 152.7 695 13.8% 8.5% .296 5.95 5.77 143 139 Zach Clark 116.7 563 8.9% 12.7% .300 6.25 6.22 150 150 Josh Stinson 128.3 613 10.9% 12.9% .293 6.10 6.27 147 151 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp Chris Tillman 187.0 8.02 3.18 1.30 101 2.7 Kris Benson Wei-Yin Chen 160.0 7.27 2.59 1.16 100 2.3 Mark Redman Bud Norris 173.3 8.22 3.34 1.15 97 2.2 Kevin Gross Miguel Gonzalez 150.7 6.96 2.95 1.20 100 2.1 Jeremy Guthrie Kevin Gausman 147.3 7.85 2.18 1.09 98 1.9 Carl Pavano Mike Wright 137.0 6.11 2.34 1.11 94 1.4 Ramiro Mendoza Scott Feldman 128.7 6.52 2.68 1.23 93 1.3 Dana Kiecker Jason Hammel 132.7 6.81 3.25 1.24 91 1.1 Omar Olivares Darren O’Day 59.3 9.37 2.32 1.07 125 0.8 Rafael Betancourt Dylan Bundy 78.0 6.84 3.81 1.11 91 0.7 Josh Johnson Zach Britton 133.3 6.29 4.10 1.12 85 0.7 Greg Kubes Eduardo Rodriguez 120.3 5.70 3.65 1.09 85 0.6 Jake Chapman Brian Matusz 59.0 8.90 3.27 0.92 114 0.6 Mike Stanton Tommy Hunter 81.0 7.67 1.88 1.33 105 0.4 Jeff Tam Francisco Rodriguez 58.7 9.42 3.46 1.12 109 0.4 Todd Jones Troy Patton 58.7 7.19 2.49 1.08 105 0.3 Mike Venafro T.J. McFarland 109.7 5.64 3.70 1.10 84 0.2 Jake Chapman Ryan Webb 69.0 6.00 3.13 0.91 100 0.2 Mark Ross Kelvin De La Cruz 68.3 8.23 4.85 0.92 99 0.2 Kevin Lovingier Zech Zinicola 45.7 6.99 3.21 1.08 96 0.1 Jose Silva Tim Bascom 88.3 5.61 4.64 1.06 80 0.0 Jesse Jefferson Oliver Drake 42.7 7.15 3.86 1.03 94 0.0 Matt Ryan Tsuyoshi Wada 93.3 6.72 3.93 1.59 77 -0.1 Darren Oliver Edgmer Escalona 57.3 7.52 3.16 1.34 92 -0.1 Derek Hasselhoff Eddie Gamboa 103.7 5.33 3.76 1.33 78 -0.1 Mike Dunne Brad Brach 74.0 8.64 3.83 1.41 90 -0.2 Kurt Knudsen Tim Berry 132.3 5.16 3.39 1.32 77 -0.2 Rich Rundles Daniel Schlereth 24.0 8.06 6.80 1.26 80 -0.2 Mike Kinnunen Jon Rauch 36.3 6.85 3.00 1.70 80 -0.3 Terry Mathews Steve Johnson 100.3 7.53 5.11 1.57 75 -0.3 Chris Seelbach Nick Additon 112.7 6.47 3.90 1.70 75 -0.4 Brent Hoard Devin Jones 117.3 5.74 3.27 1.58 75 -0.4 Rich Yett Daniel McCutchen 61.7 5.95 3.59 1.51 77 -0.5 Mike Sullivan Brock Huntzinger 78.3 6.36 4.32 1.50 76 -0.5 Dennis Konuszewski Mike Belfiore 70.3 7.47 4.60 1.52 78 -0.8 John Miglio Chris Jones 68.0 5.46 5.33 1.09 77 -0.8 Brian Adams Jake Pettit 124.3 5.05 3.34 1.70 70 -0.9 Mike Prochaska Tim Alderson 80.0 6.29 3.67 1.84 71 -1.0 R.A. Dickey Tyler Wilson 152.7 5.63 3.48 1.72 70 -1.2 Royal Thomas Zach Clark 116.7 3.86 5.51 1.27 67 -1.3 Michael Smith Josh Stinson 128.3 4.70 5.56 1.42 69 -1.3 Jeff Wigdahl Mark Hendrickson 51.3 3.96 3.72 1.97 63 -1.4 Terry Mulholland *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.