2014 ZiPS Projections – Boston Red Sox

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Boston Red Sox. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
In Stephen Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Napoli, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Boston has lost to free agency a foursome that accounted for over 2100 plate appearances and 16 wins in the club’s championship 2013 campaign. A difficult thing, is what that would appear to be. One notes, however, that a team never loses a departed player’s performance from the previous season, but from the one ahead. Napoli and Saltalamacchia, for example, are unlikely to match their plus-.350 BABIP figures from 2013. ZiPS discounts their likely 2014 value accordingly.

One notes also that Boston isn’t entirely ill-equipped to deal with those departures. Two of the organization’s more promising young players, Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley, appear to be reasonable — and very cost-effective — alternatives to Drew and Ellsbury. A.J. Pierzynski, meanwhile — whose signing was announced as this actual paragraph was being written — will likely provide as much in the way of wins as Saltalamacchia would have, with less of an investment. Some combination of Mike Carp and Daniel Nava ought to approximate Napoli’s two-win projection at first base. All told, the Red Sox are probably at a deficit of something like two wins.

This, of course, ignores how Boston might choose to utilize the payroll freed up by the aforementioned departures. That same foursome was paid about $30 million collectively in 2013. With a well-established starting rotation, Boston is in a position to focus its resources on upgrades among its field players. Pierzynski is one step in that direction. One supposes that an upgrade at first base/left field could be another.

Pitchers
It’s difficult to tell whether a year is a very long or very short unit of measure. Relative to the wild expanse of the universe, of course, each year is like a finger snap. For anyone reasonably well acquainted with John Lackey, however, it assuredly seems much longer. The right-hander entered 2013 having not pitched at all the previous season — and having been a source of considerable angst among Bostonians when he had pitched before that. Over the course of this past year, however, he became the next-most dependable starter after Jon Lester on Boston’s staff. His 2013 strikeout projection, per ZiPS: 5.53 K/9. His projection for 2014: 7.54 K/9. Striking out two more batters per nine innings is of some benefit to a pitcher’s success.

While there’s likely to be considerable turnover among Boston’s field players, the pitching staff will enter 2014 relatively unchanged, it would appear. Ryan Dempster and Felix Doubront are both candidates for the fifth spot in the rotation. Other than that, however, the rotation is pretty clear. Boston’s top two relievers in 2013, Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa, are also returning.

Bench/Prospects
As noted above — and despite the fact that they’ve recorded only about 150 major-league plate appearances between them — both Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley appear to be important pieces for Boston entering 2014. Nor does that appear to represent the entirety of the Sox’ minor-league talent likely capable of producing something of note at the major leagues. Very promising infielders Garin Cecchini and Mookie Betts are regarded by ZiPS as something better than replacement level — as is each member of the catching triumvirate of Daniel Butler, Ryan Lavarnway, and Christian Vazquez. Among pitchers there’s perhaps less in the way of ready talent, although Matt Barnes made his way to Triple-A by the end of the season and is reasonably well-acquitted by ZiPS, as well.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Red Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Dustin Pedroia	R	30	2B	655	76	166	36	2	14	75	18	5
Jacoby Ellsbury	L	30	CF	545	72	144	29	5	12	55	32	6
David Ortiz	L	38	DH	472	62	120	27	1	25	77	2	0
Shane Victorino	B	33	RF	576	72	139	27	6	13	62	24	4
Xander Bogaerts	R	21	SS	573	67	138	28	4	16	65	7	4
A.J. Pierzynski	L	37	C	481	47	121	22	2	16	67	1	1
Mike Napoli	R	32	1B	476	55	99	24	1	22	68	2	1
Garin Cecchini	L	23	3B	573	60	136	29	4	6	51	24	8
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	B	29	C	429	50	92	25	1	16	57	2	1
Will Middlebrooks	R	25	3B	523	49	122	24	1	20	73	7	2
Christian Vazquez	R	23	C	432	42	99	19	1	5	38	4	4
Stephen Drew	L	31	SS	458	49	98	23	5	10	54	4	2
Jackie Bradley	B	24	CF	498	58	108	26	2	9	44	13	8
Dan Butler	R	27	C	388	33	81	21	1	9	42	1	1
Mookie Betts	R	21	2B	488	56	106	25	2	8	51	21	5
Ryan Lavarnway	R	26	C	464	45	103	23	0	11	56	1	0
Blake Swihart	B	22	C	431	37	98	23	3	4	38	5	7
Deven Marrero	R	23	SS	428	38	93	16	1	3	27	19	4
Daniel Nava	B	31	RF	453	49	101	24	1	8	53	2	2
Mike Carp	L	28	LF	398	47	93	22	1	14	63	3	2
Alex Hassan	R	26	RF	399	39	88	20	0	6	36	2	1
David Ross	R	37	C	154	12	29	7	0	5	14	1	0
Jonny Gomes	R	33	LF	361	43	73	14	0	13	48	3	1
Ryan Kalish	L	26	CF	226	28	50	11	0	4	26	11	3
Brock Holt!	L	26	2B	513	51	119	19	3	2	43	10	7
Mitch Maier	L	32	CF	183	20	38	6	2	3	16	2	1
Mike McCoy	R	33	2B	404	41	79	13	1	3	27	19	7
John McDonald	R	39	SS	144	13	30	5	0	2	14	1	0
Mark Hamilton	L	29	LF	363	37	73	20	0	8	39	1	0
Quintin Berry	L	29	CF	431	43	81	13	2	3	30	30	4
Justin Henry	L	29	2B	471	40	103	18	3	1	33	12	7
Brandon Snyder	R	27	1B	361	35	80	18	1	10	42	1	1
Juan Carlos Linares	R	29	RF	308	28	70	17	1	5	32	0	1
Alex Castellanos	R	27	RF	497	59	101	22	5	13	56	13	5
Bryce Brentz	R	25	RF	475	45	106	21	2	15	57	3	3
Drew Sutton	B	31	1B	369	32	74	20	1	2	31	2	2
Tony Thomas	R	27	LF	420	38	82	21	4	8	41	11	2

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Dustin Pedroia	655	9.3%	11.1%	.141	.302	.285	.352	.425	.340
Jacoby Ellsbury	545	6.8%	13.8%	.150	.317	.287	.340	.437	.346
David Ortiz	472	12.9%	15.5%	.256	.304	.296	.386	.552	.377
Shane Victorino	576	6.6%	13.4%	.151	.294	.269	.331	.420	.331
Xander Bogaerts	573	8.0%	23.6%	.162	.331	.267	.331	.429	.333
A.J. Pierzynski	481	2.9%	15.4%	.163	.285	.267	.297	.430	.312
Mike Napoli	476	12.2%	30.5%	.224	.314	.241	.342	.466	.350
Garin Cecchini	573	9.4%	20.1%	.108	.332	.266	.342	.374	.322
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	429	8.4%	30.3%	.192	.309	.236	.301	.428	.316
Will Middlebrooks	523	5.2%	26.0%	.176	.303	.249	.291	.425	.312
Christian Vazquez	432	8.1%	17.8%	.093	.303	.254	.319	.347	.295
Stephen Drew	458	9.6%	23.6%	.154	.298	.239	.312	.393	.309
Jackie Bradley	498	8.4%	23.3%	.130	.309	.245	.322	.375	.308
Dan Butler	388	7.7%	21.6%	.143	.278	.231	.302	.374	.298
Mookie Betts	488	8.6%	13.5%	.121	.266	.241	.309	.362	.302
Ryan Lavarnway	464	8.0%	21.3%	.134	.295	.247	.313	.381	.307
Blake Swihart	431	5.6%	21.1%	.102	.303	.244	.286	.347	.275
Deven Marrero	428	6.8%	21.0%	.069	.297	.236	.289	.305	.271
Daniel Nava	453	8.8%	20.8%	.127	.315	.257	.344	.384	.322
Mike Carp	398	7.5%	24.1%	.183	.311	.258	.319	.442	.330
Alex Hassan	399	11.0%	21.3%	.109	.317	.253	.343	.362	.317
David Ross	154	8.4%	35.7%	.159	.304	.210	.281	.370	.288
Jonny Gomes	361	11.4%	26.9%	.172	.296	.236	.335	.408	.327
Ryan Kalish	226	7.5%	23.0%	.112	.305	.244	.302	.356	.296
Brock Holt!	513	7.0%	17.5%	.067	.310	.256	.311	.323	.279
Mitch Maier	183	10.4%	24.0%	.117	.302	.235	.313	.352	.297
Mike McCoy	404	9.9%	17.8%	.068	.272	.224	.306	.292	.271
John McDonald	144	5.6%	16.7%	.083	.262	.226	.280	.308	.255
Mark Hamilton	363	9.6%	28.1%	.137	.301	.227	.303	.363	.296
Quintin Berry	431	8.6%	26.5%	.068	.292	.212	.289	.280	.268
Justin Henry	471	7.6%	14.9%	.063	.285	.242	.303	.305	.271
Brandon Snyder	361	4.7%	27.1%	.149	.306	.239	.286	.388	.295
Juan Carlos Linares	308	4.5%	22.7%	.118	.304	.243	.289	.361	.285
Alex Castellanos	497	6.6%	30.8%	.157	.307	.224	.290	.381	.297
Bryce Brentz	475	5.1%	30.1%	.157	.314	.238	.280	.395	.293
Drew Sutton	369	8.7%	23.6%	.086	.300	.227	.299	.313	.272
Tony Thomas	420	5.2%	31.2%	.136	.290	.210	.257	.345	.269

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Dustin Pedroia	655	5.8	110	10	4.6	Billy Herman
Jacoby Ellsbury	545	6.1	109	7	4.0	Sam West
David Ortiz	472	8.2	151	0	3.3	George Brett
Shane Victorino	576	5.5	102	11	3.1	Wally Moses
Xander Bogaerts	573	5.2	105	-4	2.8	Troy Tulowitzki
A.J. Pierzynski	481	4.7	94	0	2.3	Ernie Whitt
Mike Napoli	476	5.7	117	3	2.0	Jeff Burroughs
Garin Cecchini	573	4.9	95	-3	1.9	Dave Magadan
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	429	4.5	95	-3	1.9	Pete LaForest
Will Middlebrooks	523	4.5	91	3	1.8	Willis Otanez
Christian Vazquez	432	3.9	81	2	1.6	Eric Christopherson
Stephen Drew	458	4.4	90	-1	1.6	Hector Luna
Jackie Bradley	498	4.2	89	2	1.5	Ryan Langerhans
Dan Butler	388	3.9	82	0	1.4	Andy Dominique
Mookie Betts	488	4.2	82	2	1.3	Josh McKinley
Ryan Lavarnway	464	4.3	88	-6	1.3	Steve Decker
Blake Swihart	431	3.3	71	4	1.0	Mark Parent
Deven Marrero	428	3.4	62	7	1.0	Jhonny Carvajal
Daniel Nava	453	4.7	98	-1	0.8	Gene Larkin
Mike Carp	398	5.1	104	-4	0.6	Dave Clark
Alex Hassan	399	4.5	92	0	0.6	Javier Brito
David Ross	154	3.6	75	0	0.5	Paul Richards
Jonny Gomes	361	4.9	101	-5	0.4	Benny Agbayani
Ryan Kalish	226	4.1	78	0	0.4	Scott Lusader
Brock Holt!	513	3.6	73	1	0.3	Jose Vizcaino
Mitch Maier	183	3.9	81	-4	0.3	Pat Sheridan
Mike McCoy	404	3.2	64	-1	0.1	Julio Cruz
John McDonald	144	3.1	60	1	0.0	Mark Belanger
Mark Hamilton	363	3.9	80	-6	-0.1	Orsino Hill
Quintin Berry	431	3.4	56	0	-0.1	Jeff Duncan
Justin Henry	471	3.2	66	0	-0.1	Rod Booker
Brandon Snyder	361	3.9	81	1	-0.2	Jason Fransz
Juan Carlos Linares	308	3.6	75	-2	-0.3	Bill McCarthy
Alex Castellanos	497	3.9	81	-3	-0.4	Andy Tomberlin
Bryce Brentz	475	3.8	81	-4	-0.6	Rich Murray
Drew Sutton	369	3.2	67	2	-1.0	Ryan McGuire
Tony Thomas	420	3.2	62	-5	-1.5	Erskine Kelley

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Jon Lester	L	30	31	31	197.7	176	64	20	188	88	82
Jake Peavy	R	33	24	24	149.3	126	32	17	142	66	62
Clay Buchholz	R	29	21	21	128.7	105	46	12	119	56	52
John Lackey	R	35	27	26	166.0	139	41	22	168	80	75
Felix Doubront	L	26	29	24	137.3	128	57	16	133	70	65
Matt Barnes	R	24	25	25	122.0	114	48	14	119	61	57
Ryan Dempster	R	37	27	25	149.0	132	57	21	150	79	74
Koji Uehara	R	39	56	0	52.3	71	7	5	35	13	12
Allen Webster	R	24	30	27	128.7	95	61	13	132	70	65
Brandon Workman	R	25	31	21	124.0	102	43	17	128	66	62
Anthony Ranaudo	R	24	21	20	104.0	78	45	12	107	57	53
Junichi Tazawa	R	28	70	0	73.7	76	20	8	67	30	28
Henry Owens	L	21	26	25	116.7	117	72	17	112	68	64
Andrew Miller	L	29	47	0	39.3	54	22	4	30	16	15
Craig Breslow	L	33	62	0	57.0	43	22	5	55	26	24
Marco Duarte	R	27	22	14	88.7	75	42	12	92	51	48
Matt Thornton	L	37	57	0	48.0	40	14	4	47	21	20
Burke Badenhop	R	31	62	0	63.7	44	16	6	66	30	28
Drake Britton	L	25	30	20	110.7	80	56	14	119	66	62
Franklin Morales	L	28	38	5	55.0	51	25	7	52	29	27
Andrew Bailey	R	30	32	0	30.7	35	11	4	27	14	13
Alex Wilson	R	27	37	7	70.7	50	36	7	76	41	38
Brandon Lyon	R	34	40	0	38.3	29	12	4	40	19	18
Chris Martin	R	28	38	0	60.3	42	19	7	63	31	29
Joel Hanrahan	R	32	39	0	35.7	37	17	5	32	18	17
Rafael Perez	L	32	33	0	31.3	21	10	4	32	16	15
Matt Maloney	L	30	18	6	44.3	24	10	6	52	27	25
Brayan Villarreal	R	27	50	0	52.3	56	41	5	46	28	26
Jose Contreras	R	42	25	0	24.7	23	12	3	25	14	13
Alfredo Aceves	R	31	41	8	86.0	65	39	14	89	52	49
Rubby de la Rosa	R	25	25	15	68.7	56	47	10	72	46	43
Ryan Rowland-Smith	L	31	30	7	66.3	45	35	10	73	43	40
Tommy Layne	L	29	59	0	55.0	40	34	6	57	33	31
Will Latimer	L	28	27	0	52.0	35	26	7	56	32	30
Chris J. Carpenter	R	28	33	0	41.3	31	31	5	43	27	25
Steven Wright	R	29	25	22	120.3	69	86	19	139	91	85
Charlie Haeger	R	30	20	20	105.7	65	79	19	122	82	77

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Jon Lester	197.7	845	20.8%	7.6%	.291	3.73	3.77	89	90
Jake Peavy	149.3	622	20.3%	5.1%	.282	3.74	3.67	89	87
Clay Buchholz	128.7	551	19.1%	8.3%	.279	3.64	3.89	87	93
John Lackey	166.0	707	19.7%	5.8%	.294	4.07	4.10	97	98
Felix Doubront	137.3	602	21.3%	9.5%	.295	4.26	4.15	101	99
Matt Barnes	122.0	533	21.4%	9.0%	.299	4.20	4.12	100	98
Ryan Dempster	149.0	654	20.2%	8.7%	.293	4.47	4.44	106	106
Koji Uehara	52.3	199	35.7%	3.5%	.261	2.06	2.10	49	50
Allen Webster	128.7	579	16.4%	10.5%	.297	4.55	4.64	108	110
Brandon Workman	124.0	543	18.8%	7.9%	.296	4.50	4.49	107	107
Anthony Ranaudo	104.0	464	16.8%	9.7%	.294	4.59	4.64	109	110
Junichi Tazawa	73.7	308	24.7%	6.5%	.293	3.42	3.41	81	81
Henry Owens	116.7	534	21.9%	13.5%	.296	4.94	5.09	118	121
Andrew Miller	39.3	170	31.8%	12.9%	.296	3.43	3.58	82	85
Craig Breslow	57.0	248	17.3%	8.9%	.284	3.79	4.01	90	95
Marco Duarte	88.7	400	18.7%	10.5%	.301	4.87	4.83	116	115
Matt Thornton	48.0	205	19.5%	6.8%	.297	3.75	3.46	89	82
Burke Badenhop	63.7	273	16.1%	5.9%	.291	3.96	3.63	94	86
Drake Britton	110.7	507	15.8%	11.0%	.299	5.04	5.05	120	120
Franklin Morales	55.0	242	21.1%	10.3%	.290	4.42	4.44	105	106
Andrew Bailey	30.7	130	26.9%	8.5%	.287	3.82	3.56	91	85
Alex Wilson	70.7	324	15.4%	11.1%	.304	4.84	4.66	115	111
Brandon Lyon	38.3	167	17.4%	7.2%	.298	4.23	3.87	101	92
Chris Martin	60.3	263	16.0%	7.2%	.293	4.33	4.38	103	104
Joel Hanrahan	35.7	156	23.7%	10.9%	.281	4.29	4.43	102	105
Rafael Perez	31.3	136	15.5%	7.4%	.280	4.31	4.54	103	108
Matt Maloney	44.3	195	12.3%	5.1%	.303	5.08	4.73	121	113
Brayan Villarreal	52.3	244	23.0%	16.8%	.293	4.47	4.62	106	110
Jose Contreras	24.7	111	20.7%	10.8%	.305	4.74	4.47	113	106
Alfredo Aceves	86.0	386	16.8%	10.1%	.286	5.13	5.31	122	126
Rubby de la Rosa	68.7	325	17.2%	14.5%	.298	5.64	5.62	134	134
Ryan Rowland-Smith	66.3	307	14.7%	11.4%	.296	5.43	5.54	129	132
Tommy Layne	55.0	256	15.6%	13.3%	.298	5.07	5.15	121	123
Will Latimer	52.0	238	14.7%	10.9%	.293	5.19	5.19	124	124
Chris J. Carpenter	41.3	198	15.7%	15.7%	.297	5.44	5.64	129	134
Steven Wright	120.3	586	11.8%	14.7%	.298	6.36	6.45	151	153
Charlie Haeger	105.7	518	12.5%	15.2%	.296	6.56	6.72	156	160

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Jon Lester	197.7	8.01	2.91	0.91	112	3.8	Doug Davis
Jake Peavy	149.3	7.60	1.93	1.02	112	2.9	Kevin Tapani
Clay Buchholz	128.7	7.34	3.22	0.84	115	2.6	Wade Miller
John Lackey	166.0	7.54	2.22	1.19	103	2.5	Scott Sanderson
Felix Doubront	137.3	8.39	3.74	1.05	98	1.7	Steve Searcy
Matt Barnes	122.0	8.41	3.54	1.03	99	1.7	Bob Walk
Ryan Dempster	149.0	7.97	3.44	1.27	94	1.5	Dave Stewart
Koji Uehara	52.3	12.22	1.20	0.86	203	1.5	Dennis Eckersley
Allen Webster	128.7	6.64	4.27	0.91	92	1.2	Larry Mitchell
Brandon Workman	124.0	7.40	3.12	1.23	93	1.2	Juan Dominguez
Anthony Ranaudo	104.0	6.75	3.89	1.04	91	0.9	Randy Bockus
Junichi Tazawa	73.7	9.28	2.44	0.98	122	0.9	Bob James
Henry Owens	116.7	9.02	5.55	1.31	85	0.6	Billy Wagner
Andrew Miller	39.3	12.37	5.04	0.92	122	0.5	Will Ohman
Craig Breslow	57.0	6.79	3.47	0.79	110	0.4	Scott Schoeneweis
Marco Duarte	88.7	7.61	4.26	1.22	86	0.4	Chris Oxspring
Matt Thornton	48.0	7.50	2.63	0.75	112	0.4	Buddy Groom
Burke Badenhop	63.7	6.22	2.26	0.85	106	0.4	Brian Schmack
Drake Britton	110.7	6.50	4.55	1.14	83	0.3	Sebern Wright
Franklin Morales	55.0	8.35	4.09	1.15	95	0.3	Billy Brewer
Andrew Bailey	30.7	10.26	3.22	1.17	110	0.2	Jeff Austin
Alex Wilson	70.7	6.36	4.58	0.89	86	0.1	Ryan Henderson
Brandon Lyon	38.3	6.81	2.82	0.94	99	0.1	Rodney Myers
Chris Martin	60.3	6.27	2.84	1.04	97	0.1	Robert Tenenini
Joel Hanrahan	35.7	9.33	4.29	1.26	98	0.1	Rich Croushore
Rafael Perez	31.3	6.04	2.88	1.15	97	0.1	Brian Shouse
Matt Maloney	44.3	4.88	2.03	1.22	82	0.0	Tony Fossas
Brayan Villarreal	52.3	9.64	7.06	0.86	94	0.0	Calvin Jones
Jose Contreras	24.7	8.38	4.37	1.09	88	-0.1	Roberto Hernandez
Alfredo Aceves	86.0	6.80	4.08	1.47	82	-0.2	Tom Kramer
Rubby de la Rosa	68.7	7.34	6.16	1.31	74	-0.3	Ivan Montane
Ryan Rowland-Smith	66.3	6.11	4.75	1.36	77	-0.3	Dan Smith
Tommy Layne	55.0	6.55	5.56	0.98	82	-0.4	Tom Doyle
Will Latimer	52.0	6.06	4.50	1.21	81	-0.5	Danny Young
Chris J. Carpenter	41.3	6.76	6.76	1.09	77	-0.5	Bart Evans
Steven Wright	120.3	5.16	6.43	1.42	66	-1.5	Michael Smith
Charlie Haeger	105.7	5.53	6.73	1.62	64	-1.6	Tony Cloninger

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.