2014 ZiPS Projections – Boston Red Sox by Carson Cistulli December 3, 2013 After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Boston Red Sox. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Batters In Stephen Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Napoli, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Boston has lost to free agency a foursome that accounted for over 2100 plate appearances and 16 wins in the club’s championship 2013 campaign. A difficult thing, is what that would appear to be. One notes, however, that a team never loses a departed player’s performance from the previous season, but from the one ahead. Napoli and Saltalamacchia, for example, are unlikely to match their plus-.350 BABIP figures from 2013. ZiPS discounts their likely 2014 value accordingly. One notes also that Boston isn’t entirely ill-equipped to deal with those departures. Two of the organization’s more promising young players, Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley, appear to be reasonable — and very cost-effective — alternatives to Drew and Ellsbury. A.J. Pierzynski, meanwhile — whose signing was announced as this actual paragraph was being written — will likely provide as much in the way of wins as Saltalamacchia would have, with less of an investment. Some combination of Mike Carp and Daniel Nava ought to approximate Napoli’s two-win projection at first base. All told, the Red Sox are probably at a deficit of something like two wins. This, of course, ignores how Boston might choose to utilize the payroll freed up by the aforementioned departures. That same foursome was paid about $30 million collectively in 2013. With a well-established starting rotation, Boston is in a position to focus its resources on upgrades among its field players. Pierzynski is one step in that direction. One supposes that an upgrade at first base/left field could be another. Pitchers It’s difficult to tell whether a year is a very long or very short unit of measure. Relative to the wild expanse of the universe, of course, each year is like a finger snap. For anyone reasonably well acquainted with John Lackey, however, it assuredly seems much longer. The right-hander entered 2013 having not pitched at all the previous season — and having been a source of considerable angst among Bostonians when he had pitched before that. Over the course of this past year, however, he became the next-most dependable starter after Jon Lester on Boston’s staff. His 2013 strikeout projection, per ZiPS: 5.53 K/9. His projection for 2014: 7.54 K/9. Striking out two more batters per nine innings is of some benefit to a pitcher’s success. While there’s likely to be considerable turnover among Boston’s field players, the pitching staff will enter 2014 relatively unchanged, it would appear. Ryan Dempster and Felix Doubront are both candidates for the fifth spot in the rotation. Other than that, however, the rotation is pretty clear. Boston’s top two relievers in 2013, Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa, are also returning. Bench/Prospects As noted above — and despite the fact that they’ve recorded only about 150 major-league plate appearances between them — both Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley appear to be important pieces for Boston entering 2014. Nor does that appear to represent the entirety of the Sox’ minor-league talent likely capable of producing something of note at the major leagues. Very promising infielders Garin Cecchini and Mookie Betts are regarded by ZiPS as something better than replacement level — as is each member of the catching triumvirate of Daniel Butler, Ryan Lavarnway, and Christian Vazquez. Among pitchers there’s perhaps less in the way of ready talent, although Matt Barnes made his way to Triple-A by the end of the season and is reasonably well-acquitted by ZiPS, as well. Depth Chart Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Red Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Dustin Pedroia R 30 2B 655 76 166 36 2 14 75 18 5 Jacoby Ellsbury L 30 CF 545 72 144 29 5 12 55 32 6 David Ortiz L 38 DH 472 62 120 27 1 25 77 2 0 Shane Victorino B 33 RF 576 72 139 27 6 13 62 24 4 Xander Bogaerts R 21 SS 573 67 138 28 4 16 65 7 4 A.J. Pierzynski L 37 C 481 47 121 22 2 16 67 1 1 Mike Napoli R 32 1B 476 55 99 24 1 22 68 2 1 Garin Cecchini L 23 3B 573 60 136 29 4 6 51 24 8 Jarrod Saltalamacchia B 29 C 429 50 92 25 1 16 57 2 1 Will Middlebrooks R 25 3B 523 49 122 24 1 20 73 7 2 Christian Vazquez R 23 C 432 42 99 19 1 5 38 4 4 Stephen Drew L 31 SS 458 49 98 23 5 10 54 4 2 Jackie Bradley B 24 CF 498 58 108 26 2 9 44 13 8 Dan Butler R 27 C 388 33 81 21 1 9 42 1 1 Mookie Betts R 21 2B 488 56 106 25 2 8 51 21 5 Ryan Lavarnway R 26 C 464 45 103 23 0 11 56 1 0 Blake Swihart B 22 C 431 37 98 23 3 4 38 5 7 Deven Marrero R 23 SS 428 38 93 16 1 3 27 19 4 Daniel Nava B 31 RF 453 49 101 24 1 8 53 2 2 Mike Carp L 28 LF 398 47 93 22 1 14 63 3 2 Alex Hassan R 26 RF 399 39 88 20 0 6 36 2 1 David Ross R 37 C 154 12 29 7 0 5 14 1 0 Jonny Gomes R 33 LF 361 43 73 14 0 13 48 3 1 Ryan Kalish L 26 CF 226 28 50 11 0 4 26 11 3 Brock Holt! L 26 2B 513 51 119 19 3 2 43 10 7 Mitch Maier L 32 CF 183 20 38 6 2 3 16 2 1 Mike McCoy R 33 2B 404 41 79 13 1 3 27 19 7 John McDonald R 39 SS 144 13 30 5 0 2 14 1 0 Mark Hamilton L 29 LF 363 37 73 20 0 8 39 1 0 Quintin Berry L 29 CF 431 43 81 13 2 3 30 30 4 Justin Henry L 29 2B 471 40 103 18 3 1 33 12 7 Brandon Snyder R 27 1B 361 35 80 18 1 10 42 1 1 Juan Carlos Linares R 29 RF 308 28 70 17 1 5 32 0 1 Alex Castellanos R 27 RF 497 59 101 22 5 13 56 13 5 Bryce Brentz R 25 RF 475 45 106 21 2 15 57 3 3 Drew Sutton B 31 1B 369 32 74 20 1 2 31 2 2 Tony Thomas R 27 LF 420 38 82 21 4 8 41 11 2 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA Dustin Pedroia 655 9.3% 11.1% .141 .302 .285 .352 .425 .340 Jacoby Ellsbury 545 6.8% 13.8% .150 .317 .287 .340 .437 .346 David Ortiz 472 12.9% 15.5% .256 .304 .296 .386 .552 .377 Shane Victorino 576 6.6% 13.4% .151 .294 .269 .331 .420 .331 Xander Bogaerts 573 8.0% 23.6% .162 .331 .267 .331 .429 .333 A.J. Pierzynski 481 2.9% 15.4% .163 .285 .267 .297 .430 .312 Mike Napoli 476 12.2% 30.5% .224 .314 .241 .342 .466 .350 Garin Cecchini 573 9.4% 20.1% .108 .332 .266 .342 .374 .322 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 429 8.4% 30.3% .192 .309 .236 .301 .428 .316 Will Middlebrooks 523 5.2% 26.0% .176 .303 .249 .291 .425 .312 Christian Vazquez 432 8.1% 17.8% .093 .303 .254 .319 .347 .295 Stephen Drew 458 9.6% 23.6% .154 .298 .239 .312 .393 .309 Jackie Bradley 498 8.4% 23.3% .130 .309 .245 .322 .375 .308 Dan Butler 388 7.7% 21.6% .143 .278 .231 .302 .374 .298 Mookie Betts 488 8.6% 13.5% .121 .266 .241 .309 .362 .302 Ryan Lavarnway 464 8.0% 21.3% .134 .295 .247 .313 .381 .307 Blake Swihart 431 5.6% 21.1% .102 .303 .244 .286 .347 .275 Deven Marrero 428 6.8% 21.0% .069 .297 .236 .289 .305 .271 Daniel Nava 453 8.8% 20.8% .127 .315 .257 .344 .384 .322 Mike Carp 398 7.5% 24.1% .183 .311 .258 .319 .442 .330 Alex Hassan 399 11.0% 21.3% .109 .317 .253 .343 .362 .317 David Ross 154 8.4% 35.7% .159 .304 .210 .281 .370 .288 Jonny Gomes 361 11.4% 26.9% .172 .296 .236 .335 .408 .327 Ryan Kalish 226 7.5% 23.0% .112 .305 .244 .302 .356 .296 Brock Holt! 513 7.0% 17.5% .067 .310 .256 .311 .323 .279 Mitch Maier 183 10.4% 24.0% .117 .302 .235 .313 .352 .297 Mike McCoy 404 9.9% 17.8% .068 .272 .224 .306 .292 .271 John McDonald 144 5.6% 16.7% .083 .262 .226 .280 .308 .255 Mark Hamilton 363 9.6% 28.1% .137 .301 .227 .303 .363 .296 Quintin Berry 431 8.6% 26.5% .068 .292 .212 .289 .280 .268 Justin Henry 471 7.6% 14.9% .063 .285 .242 .303 .305 .271 Brandon Snyder 361 4.7% 27.1% .149 .306 .239 .286 .388 .295 Juan Carlos Linares 308 4.5% 22.7% .118 .304 .243 .289 .361 .285 Alex Castellanos 497 6.6% 30.8% .157 .307 .224 .290 .381 .297 Bryce Brentz 475 5.1% 30.1% .157 .314 .238 .280 .395 .293 Drew Sutton 369 8.7% 23.6% .086 .300 .227 .299 .313 .272 Tony Thomas 420 5.2% 31.2% .136 .290 .210 .257 .345 .269 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp Dustin Pedroia 655 5.8 110 10 4.6 Billy Herman Jacoby Ellsbury 545 6.1 109 7 4.0 Sam West David Ortiz 472 8.2 151 0 3.3 George Brett Shane Victorino 576 5.5 102 11 3.1 Wally Moses Xander Bogaerts 573 5.2 105 -4 2.8 Troy Tulowitzki A.J. Pierzynski 481 4.7 94 0 2.3 Ernie Whitt Mike Napoli 476 5.7 117 3 2.0 Jeff Burroughs Garin Cecchini 573 4.9 95 -3 1.9 Dave Magadan Jarrod Saltalamacchia 429 4.5 95 -3 1.9 Pete LaForest Will Middlebrooks 523 4.5 91 3 1.8 Willis Otanez Christian Vazquez 432 3.9 81 2 1.6 Eric Christopherson Stephen Drew 458 4.4 90 -1 1.6 Hector Luna Jackie Bradley 498 4.2 89 2 1.5 Ryan Langerhans Dan Butler 388 3.9 82 0 1.4 Andy Dominique Mookie Betts 488 4.2 82 2 1.3 Josh McKinley Ryan Lavarnway 464 4.3 88 -6 1.3 Steve Decker Blake Swihart 431 3.3 71 4 1.0 Mark Parent Deven Marrero 428 3.4 62 7 1.0 Jhonny Carvajal Daniel Nava 453 4.7 98 -1 0.8 Gene Larkin Mike Carp 398 5.1 104 -4 0.6 Dave Clark Alex Hassan 399 4.5 92 0 0.6 Javier Brito David Ross 154 3.6 75 0 0.5 Paul Richards Jonny Gomes 361 4.9 101 -5 0.4 Benny Agbayani Ryan Kalish 226 4.1 78 0 0.4 Scott Lusader Brock Holt! 513 3.6 73 1 0.3 Jose Vizcaino Mitch Maier 183 3.9 81 -4 0.3 Pat Sheridan Mike McCoy 404 3.2 64 -1 0.1 Julio Cruz John McDonald 144 3.1 60 1 0.0 Mark Belanger Mark Hamilton 363 3.9 80 -6 -0.1 Orsino Hill Quintin Berry 431 3.4 56 0 -0.1 Jeff Duncan Justin Henry 471 3.2 66 0 -0.1 Rod Booker Brandon Snyder 361 3.9 81 1 -0.2 Jason Fransz Juan Carlos Linares 308 3.6 75 -2 -0.3 Bill McCarthy Alex Castellanos 497 3.9 81 -3 -0.4 Andy Tomberlin Bryce Brentz 475 3.8 81 -4 -0.6 Rich Murray Drew Sutton 369 3.2 67 2 -1.0 Ryan McGuire Tony Thomas 420 3.2 62 -5 -1.5 Erskine Kelley *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER Jon Lester L 30 31 31 197.7 176 64 20 188 88 82 Jake Peavy R 33 24 24 149.3 126 32 17 142 66 62 Clay Buchholz R 29 21 21 128.7 105 46 12 119 56 52 John Lackey R 35 27 26 166.0 139 41 22 168 80 75 Felix Doubront L 26 29 24 137.3 128 57 16 133 70 65 Matt Barnes R 24 25 25 122.0 114 48 14 119 61 57 Ryan Dempster R 37 27 25 149.0 132 57 21 150 79 74 Koji Uehara R 39 56 0 52.3 71 7 5 35 13 12 Allen Webster R 24 30 27 128.7 95 61 13 132 70 65 Brandon Workman R 25 31 21 124.0 102 43 17 128 66 62 Anthony Ranaudo R 24 21 20 104.0 78 45 12 107 57 53 Junichi Tazawa R 28 70 0 73.7 76 20 8 67 30 28 Henry Owens L 21 26 25 116.7 117 72 17 112 68 64 Andrew Miller L 29 47 0 39.3 54 22 4 30 16 15 Craig Breslow L 33 62 0 57.0 43 22 5 55 26 24 Marco Duarte R 27 22 14 88.7 75 42 12 92 51 48 Matt Thornton L 37 57 0 48.0 40 14 4 47 21 20 Burke Badenhop R 31 62 0 63.7 44 16 6 66 30 28 Drake Britton L 25 30 20 110.7 80 56 14 119 66 62 Franklin Morales L 28 38 5 55.0 51 25 7 52 29 27 Andrew Bailey R 30 32 0 30.7 35 11 4 27 14 13 Alex Wilson R 27 37 7 70.7 50 36 7 76 41 38 Brandon Lyon R 34 40 0 38.3 29 12 4 40 19 18 Chris Martin R 28 38 0 60.3 42 19 7 63 31 29 Joel Hanrahan R 32 39 0 35.7 37 17 5 32 18 17 Rafael Perez L 32 33 0 31.3 21 10 4 32 16 15 Matt Maloney L 30 18 6 44.3 24 10 6 52 27 25 Brayan Villarreal R 27 50 0 52.3 56 41 5 46 28 26 Jose Contreras R 42 25 0 24.7 23 12 3 25 14 13 Alfredo Aceves R 31 41 8 86.0 65 39 14 89 52 49 Rubby de la Rosa R 25 25 15 68.7 56 47 10 72 46 43 Ryan Rowland-Smith L 31 30 7 66.3 45 35 10 73 43 40 Tommy Layne L 29 59 0 55.0 40 34 6 57 33 31 Will Latimer L 28 27 0 52.0 35 26 7 56 32 30 Chris J. Carpenter R 28 33 0 41.3 31 31 5 43 27 25 Steven Wright R 29 25 22 120.3 69 86 19 139 91 85 Charlie Haeger R 30 20 20 105.7 65 79 19 122 82 77 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Jon Lester 197.7 845 20.8% 7.6% .291 3.73 3.77 89 90 Jake Peavy 149.3 622 20.3% 5.1% .282 3.74 3.67 89 87 Clay Buchholz 128.7 551 19.1% 8.3% .279 3.64 3.89 87 93 John Lackey 166.0 707 19.7% 5.8% .294 4.07 4.10 97 98 Felix Doubront 137.3 602 21.3% 9.5% .295 4.26 4.15 101 99 Matt Barnes 122.0 533 21.4% 9.0% .299 4.20 4.12 100 98 Ryan Dempster 149.0 654 20.2% 8.7% .293 4.47 4.44 106 106 Koji Uehara 52.3 199 35.7% 3.5% .261 2.06 2.10 49 50 Allen Webster 128.7 579 16.4% 10.5% .297 4.55 4.64 108 110 Brandon Workman 124.0 543 18.8% 7.9% .296 4.50 4.49 107 107 Anthony Ranaudo 104.0 464 16.8% 9.7% .294 4.59 4.64 109 110 Junichi Tazawa 73.7 308 24.7% 6.5% .293 3.42 3.41 81 81 Henry Owens 116.7 534 21.9% 13.5% .296 4.94 5.09 118 121 Andrew Miller 39.3 170 31.8% 12.9% .296 3.43 3.58 82 85 Craig Breslow 57.0 248 17.3% 8.9% .284 3.79 4.01 90 95 Marco Duarte 88.7 400 18.7% 10.5% .301 4.87 4.83 116 115 Matt Thornton 48.0 205 19.5% 6.8% .297 3.75 3.46 89 82 Burke Badenhop 63.7 273 16.1% 5.9% .291 3.96 3.63 94 86 Drake Britton 110.7 507 15.8% 11.0% .299 5.04 5.05 120 120 Franklin Morales 55.0 242 21.1% 10.3% .290 4.42 4.44 105 106 Andrew Bailey 30.7 130 26.9% 8.5% .287 3.82 3.56 91 85 Alex Wilson 70.7 324 15.4% 11.1% .304 4.84 4.66 115 111 Brandon Lyon 38.3 167 17.4% 7.2% .298 4.23 3.87 101 92 Chris Martin 60.3 263 16.0% 7.2% .293 4.33 4.38 103 104 Joel Hanrahan 35.7 156 23.7% 10.9% .281 4.29 4.43 102 105 Rafael Perez 31.3 136 15.5% 7.4% .280 4.31 4.54 103 108 Matt Maloney 44.3 195 12.3% 5.1% .303 5.08 4.73 121 113 Brayan Villarreal 52.3 244 23.0% 16.8% .293 4.47 4.62 106 110 Jose Contreras 24.7 111 20.7% 10.8% .305 4.74 4.47 113 106 Alfredo Aceves 86.0 386 16.8% 10.1% .286 5.13 5.31 122 126 Rubby de la Rosa 68.7 325 17.2% 14.5% .298 5.64 5.62 134 134 Ryan Rowland-Smith 66.3 307 14.7% 11.4% .296 5.43 5.54 129 132 Tommy Layne 55.0 256 15.6% 13.3% .298 5.07 5.15 121 123 Will Latimer 52.0 238 14.7% 10.9% .293 5.19 5.19 124 124 Chris J. Carpenter 41.3 198 15.7% 15.7% .297 5.44 5.64 129 134 Steven Wright 120.3 586 11.8% 14.7% .298 6.36 6.45 151 153 Charlie Haeger 105.7 518 12.5% 15.2% .296 6.56 6.72 156 160 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp Jon Lester 197.7 8.01 2.91 0.91 112 3.8 Doug Davis Jake Peavy 149.3 7.60 1.93 1.02 112 2.9 Kevin Tapani Clay Buchholz 128.7 7.34 3.22 0.84 115 2.6 Wade Miller John Lackey 166.0 7.54 2.22 1.19 103 2.5 Scott Sanderson Felix Doubront 137.3 8.39 3.74 1.05 98 1.7 Steve Searcy Matt Barnes 122.0 8.41 3.54 1.03 99 1.7 Bob Walk Ryan Dempster 149.0 7.97 3.44 1.27 94 1.5 Dave Stewart Koji Uehara 52.3 12.22 1.20 0.86 203 1.5 Dennis Eckersley Allen Webster 128.7 6.64 4.27 0.91 92 1.2 Larry Mitchell Brandon Workman 124.0 7.40 3.12 1.23 93 1.2 Juan Dominguez Anthony Ranaudo 104.0 6.75 3.89 1.04 91 0.9 Randy Bockus Junichi Tazawa 73.7 9.28 2.44 0.98 122 0.9 Bob James Henry Owens 116.7 9.02 5.55 1.31 85 0.6 Billy Wagner Andrew Miller 39.3 12.37 5.04 0.92 122 0.5 Will Ohman Craig Breslow 57.0 6.79 3.47 0.79 110 0.4 Scott Schoeneweis Marco Duarte 88.7 7.61 4.26 1.22 86 0.4 Chris Oxspring Matt Thornton 48.0 7.50 2.63 0.75 112 0.4 Buddy Groom Burke Badenhop 63.7 6.22 2.26 0.85 106 0.4 Brian Schmack Drake Britton 110.7 6.50 4.55 1.14 83 0.3 Sebern Wright Franklin Morales 55.0 8.35 4.09 1.15 95 0.3 Billy Brewer Andrew Bailey 30.7 10.26 3.22 1.17 110 0.2 Jeff Austin Alex Wilson 70.7 6.36 4.58 0.89 86 0.1 Ryan Henderson Brandon Lyon 38.3 6.81 2.82 0.94 99 0.1 Rodney Myers Chris Martin 60.3 6.27 2.84 1.04 97 0.1 Robert Tenenini Joel Hanrahan 35.7 9.33 4.29 1.26 98 0.1 Rich Croushore Rafael Perez 31.3 6.04 2.88 1.15 97 0.1 Brian Shouse Matt Maloney 44.3 4.88 2.03 1.22 82 0.0 Tony Fossas Brayan Villarreal 52.3 9.64 7.06 0.86 94 0.0 Calvin Jones Jose Contreras 24.7 8.38 4.37 1.09 88 -0.1 Roberto Hernandez Alfredo Aceves 86.0 6.80 4.08 1.47 82 -0.2 Tom Kramer Rubby de la Rosa 68.7 7.34 6.16 1.31 74 -0.3 Ivan Montane Ryan Rowland-Smith 66.3 6.11 4.75 1.36 77 -0.3 Dan Smith Tommy Layne 55.0 6.55 5.56 0.98 82 -0.4 Tom Doyle Will Latimer 52.0 6.06 4.50 1.21 81 -0.5 Danny Young Chris J. Carpenter 41.3 6.76 6.76 1.09 77 -0.5 Bart Evans Steven Wright 120.3 5.16 6.43 1.42 66 -1.5 Michael Smith Charlie Haeger 105.7 5.53 6.73 1.62 64 -1.6 Tony Cloninger *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.