2014 ZiPS Projections – Chicago Cubs by Carson Cistulli January 27, 2014 After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago Cubs. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Toronto. Batters It’s very possible that the depth-chart graphic below doesn’t accurately represent how certain players will be deployed by manager Rick Renteria in 2014. Because even maybe Rick Renteria doesn’t know how he’ll deploy those players, is mostly why. Of particular interest are the third-base and also center-/right-field positions. In the case of the former, Luis Valbuena appears to have received the most enthusiastic projection from ZiPS: 1.9 WAR in just 481 plate appearances. Pairing him with the right-handed-batting Donnie Murphy might bear some metaphorical fruit, according to the forecasts here. That said, the presence of both Mike Olt and Christian Villanueva — two promising young players, either of whom could benefit from major-league plate appearances — also complicates matters. In the outfield, a combination of Justin Ruggiano, Nate Schierholtz, and Ryan Sweeney are all available for some combination of center and right field. Ruggiano’s projection (1.7 WAR in 433 PA) is the most encouraging; however, any of three, regardless of handedness or platoon ability, might be superior to expected left-field starter Junior Lake. Pitchers In his Letters to a Young Poet, Rainer Maria Rilke writes something to the effect of “Rome is beautiful, because every place is beautiful.” A wonderful sentiment, that, but also patently false — as is demonstrated by the existence of Gresham, Oregon, for example. Were he alive and also interested in baseball, for some reason, Rilke might suggest that every starting rotation is beautiful. Again, he’d be incorrect — and one would be free to point to the Cubs’ rotation as evidence. It’s not the worst one in the majors; however, speaking as one who has now appended text to 20-plus teams’ worth of projections, the author feels comfortable saying that it also isn’t the most promising. Bench/Prospects Much of the Cubs’ future success is tied, probably, to the pretty impressive collection of young, field-playing talent currently extant within the organization. Both Arismendy Alcantara and Javier Baez, for example, are projected to produce wins at a slightly above-average major-league rate already — and yet neither is likely to begin the season with the parent club. Matt Szczur and Logan Watkins, while less celebrated as prospects, also currently profile as useful major-leaguers, if and when given the opportunity. Depth Chart Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Cubs, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Starlin Castro R 24 SS 683 73 180 32 7 13 61 16 8 Anthony Rizzo L 24 1B 655 79 148 36 2 27 96 6 5 Arismendy Alcantara B 22 SS 529 61 123 26 5 12 59 25 6 Welington Castillo R 27 C 404 40 89 19 0 11 40 1 0 Javier Baez R 21 SS 515 72 117 22 4 28 78 18 5 Luis Valbuena L 28 3B 481 49 102 22 1 11 50 3 3 Justin Ruggiano R 32 CF 433 51 96 22 1 16 52 13 7 Darwin Barney R 28 2B 596 70 139 27 4 6 49 7 2 Matt Szczur R 24 CF 575 67 136 25 5 4 45 22 10 Christian Villanueva R 23 3B 557 60 125 32 3 16 64 8 10 Mike Olt R 25 3B 461 46 90 18 2 15 46 3 1 Nate Schierholtz L 30 RF 395 46 94 22 3 14 47 5 3 Ryan Sweeney L 29 CF 303 34 73 16 3 6 30 1 0 George Kottaras L 31 C 186 18 34 7 1 6 21 1 0 Casper Wells R 29 LF 265 32 54 12 3 8 20 2 2 Donnie Murphy R 31 SS 350 43 73 17 2 13 48 3 2 Brett Jackson L 25 CF 512 58 97 18 7 13 47 16 7 Ryan Roberts R 33 3B 421 46 89 16 1 9 40 9 6 Logan Watkins L 24 2B 559 63 115 18 6 8 43 14 7 Rafael Lopez L 26 C 379 38 81 18 0 6 38 1 1 Jae-Hoon Ha R 23 CF 457 49 103 20 2 6 39 11 4 Josh Vitters R 24 3B 393 41 92 19 1 11 44 4 4 Ryan Kalish L 26 CF 227 28 50 10 0 5 23 11 3 John Andreoli R 24 LF 533 59 122 18 6 2 37 33 11 Junior Lake R 24 LF 494 56 116 23 3 10 41 20 9 Jorge Soler R 22 RF 455 57 106 20 2 12 50 12 4 Cody Ransom R 38 3B 223 22 38 11 1 8 25 0 0 Mitch Maier L 32 CF 183 20 38 6 2 3 15 2 1 Aaron Cunningham R 28 LF 421 44 87 24 2 7 41 5 3 Ty Wright R 29 LF 386 39 90 18 1 7 38 3 2 Eli Whiteside R 34 C 219 22 41 7 1 3 17 1 1 Edwin Maysonet R 32 SS 326 28 67 15 2 3 26 2 2 John Baker L 33 C 166 13 30 4 0 1 9 1 1 Brad Nelson L 31 1B 516 51 107 20 1 16 53 2 1 Darnell McDonald R 35 LF 283 29 58 13 1 5 25 4 3 Chris Coghlan L 29 LF 369 38 80 17 3 5 28 6 4 Chris Valaika R 28 2B 375 34 81 16 1 6 34 2 2 Rubi Silva L 25 RF 550 57 135 23 9 8 53 8 10 Jeudy Valdez R 25 SS 554 59 112 27 4 10 58 15 11 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA Starlin Castro 683 4.8% 16.0% .133 .319 .280 .319 .413 .319 Anthony Rizzo 655 9.9% 21.2% .209 .290 .255 .336 .464 .343 Arismendy Alcantara 529 6.8% 26.3% .150 .331 .255 .307 .405 .314 Welington Castillo 404 8.2% 24.5% .145 .310 .248 .323 .393 .314 Javier Baez 515 5.0% 32.6% .240 .313 .246 .295 .486 .340 Luis Valbuena 481 10.6% 20.0% .135 .285 .241 .325 .376 .307 Justin Ruggiano 433 8.1% 25.6% .183 .300 .244 .310 .427 .322 Darwin Barney 596 5.4% 11.6% .096 .278 .253 .299 .349 .283 Matt Szczur 575 6.4% 17.4% .088 .308 .257 .309 .345 .292 Christian Villanueva 557 4.8% 25.7% .168 .304 .244 .294 .412 .302 Mike Olt 461 10.0% 30.8% .163 .293 .220 .299 .383 .300 Nate Schierholtz 395 6.3% 18.0% .193 .286 .260 .312 .453 .327 Ryan Sweeney 303 7.9% 15.8% .144 .299 .264 .321 .408 .318 George Kottaras 186 14.5% 25.8% .173 .272 .218 .335 .391 .321 Casper Wells 265 7.9% 25.7% .176 .282 .226 .299 .402 .307 Donnie Murphy 350 6.0% 26.3% .188 .278 .229 .291 .417 .308 Brett Jackson 512 9.6% 36.5% .156 .327 .213 .294 .369 .294 Ryan Roberts 421 9.3% 19.5% .119 .278 .237 .308 .356 .293 Logan Watkins 559 8.6% 23.4% .109 .296 .230 .302 .339 .285 Rafael Lopez 379 7.7% 20.8% .104 .285 .234 .294 .338 .281 Jae-Hoon Ha 457 6.6% 22.3% .100 .311 .246 .302 .346 .289 Josh Vitters 393 5.6% 19.6% .148 .290 .253 .300 .401 .305 Ryan Kalish 227 7.9% 21.6% .122 .294 .244 .305 .366 .302 John Andreoli 533 8.8% 24.8% .075 .345 .255 .323 .330 .298 Junior Lake 494 4.9% 28.1% .128 .338 .252 .295 .380 .297 Jorge Soler 455 6.4% 20.2% .143 .295 .253 .303 .396 .308 Cody Ransom 223 10.3% 36.3% .189 .280 .194 .285 .383 .295 Mitch Maier 183 10.9% 23.0% .118 .299 .236 .319 .354 .300 Aaron Cunningham 421 7.4% 20.4% .129 .276 .228 .294 .357 .288 Ty Wright 386 5.4% 16.3% .115 .285 .251 .296 .366 .292 Eli Whiteside 219 5.5% 26.5% .089 .266 .203 .252 .292 .239 Edwin Maysonet 326 4.3% 20.6% .094 .276 .224 .266 .318 .253 John Baker 166 9.6% 24.7% .047 .271 .203 .283 .250 .243 Brad Nelson 516 8.1% 23.3% .150 .271 .229 .293 .379 .296 Darnell McDonald 283 7.4% 20.5% .117 .272 .227 .288 .344 .279 Chris Coghlan 369 8.4% 16.8% .114 .281 .242 .310 .356 .292 Chris Valaika 375 4.3% 20.0% .103 .276 .232 .271 .335 .266 Rubi Silva 550 2.2% 24.9% .122 .327 .255 .271 .377 .276 Jeudy Valdez 554 4.3% 28.0% .125 .287 .217 .258 .342 .260 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp Starlin Castro 683 4.9 99 -4 3.0 Rennie Stennett Anthony Rizzo 655 5.6 116 7 2.9 Carlos Pena Arismendy Alcantara 529 4.8 93 0 2.4 Tony Batista Welington Castillo 404 4.6 95 1 2.2 Ronny Paulino Javier Baez 515 5.3 110 -9 2.2 Cal Ripken Luis Valbuena 481 4.3 92 5 1.9 Ed Giovanola Justin Ruggiano 433 4.7 100 -1 1.7 Preston Wilson Darwin Barney 596 3.8 77 10 1.6 Kevin Howard Matt Szczur 575 3.9 79 6 1.4 Bruce Fields Christian Villanueva 557 4.1 91 1 1.3 Stan Royer Mike Olt 461 4.0 85 2 1.2 Mike Costanzo Nate Schierholtz 395 5.1 107 0 1.1 Randy Bush Ryan Sweeney 303 4.8 98 -1 1.0 Dave Martinez George Kottaras 186 4.6 98 -3 0.8 Earl Grace Casper Wells 265 4.1 90 5 0.8 Scott Wade Donnie Murphy 350 4.2 91 -5 0.8 Nick Green Brett Jackson 512 3.8 81 -1 0.8 Chris Dickerson Ryan Roberts 421 3.8 82 0 0.7 Rico Rossy Logan Watkins 559 3.6 75 1 0.7 Angel Escobar Rafael Lopez 379 3.5 73 -3 0.6 Alberto Castillo Jae-Hoon Ha 457 3.8 77 -1 0.5 Jim Olander Josh Vitters 393 4.2 90 -4 0.5 Ryan Gripp Ryan Kalish 227 4.3 83 0 0.5 Scott Lusader John Andreoli 533 4.1 80 2 0.4 Kevin Rhomberg Junior Lake 494 4.1 83 2 0.3 Rod Allen Jorge Soler 455 4.5 90 -2 0.3 Candy Maldonado Cody Ransom 223 3.7 81 -3 0.1 Jeff Branson Mitch Maier 183 4.0 84 -4 0.0 Pat Sheridan Aaron Cunningham 421 3.6 77 1 -0.2 Chad Alexander Ty Wright 386 3.9 80 0 -0.2 Chan Perry Eli Whiteside 219 2.5 49 0 -0.2 Frank Charles Edwin Maysonet 326 2.9 59 -1 -0.3 Kevin Baez John Baker 166 2.3 48 -2 -0.3 Kirt Manwaring Brad Nelson 516 3.9 82 1 -0.4 Kevin Barker Darnell McDonald 283 3.4 72 0 -0.4 Felipe Zayas Chris Coghlan 369 3.9 82 -4 -0.5 Bubba Carpenter Chris Valaika 375 3.1 65 -3 -0.6 Josh Arteaga Rubi Silva 550 3.5 75 0 -1.0 Bruce Fields Jeudy Valdez 554 2.9 63 -10 -1.2 Mike Benjamin *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER Jeff Samardzija R 29 29 29 184.3 179 56 19 168 78 73 Travis Wood L 27 31 31 183.3 136 61 21 172 85 79 Edwin Jackson R 30 29 29 173.7 139 54 17 177 82 77 Carlos Villanueva R 30 39 14 114.0 96 37 13 105 51 48 Justin Grimm R 25 30 24 135.0 95 47 12 141 68 64 Kyle Hendricks R 24 25 24 139.3 81 23 19 155 74 69 Pedro Strop R 29 66 0 63.0 64 29 5 53 25 23 Jose Veras R 33 67 0 61.7 68 28 5 50 25 23 Jake Arrieta R 28 28 26 139.7 115 69 17 135 77 72 Corey Black R 22 21 21 88.7 72 51 8 85 47 44 Chris Rusin L 27 29 28 155.7 83 50 19 170 87 81 Wesley Wright L 29 69 1 57.7 57 20 5 51 24 22 Tsuyoshi Wada L 33 17 17 94.7 71 41 13 98 54 50 Barret Loux R 25 22 21 98.3 66 49 10 102 56 52 Kyuji Fujikawa R 33 32 0 28.7 32 10 3 24 12 11 Blake Parker R 29 51 0 54.0 55 24 6 48 25 23 Zac Rosscup L 26 39 0 40.3 45 25 4 34 18 17 James Russell L 28 72 0 59.7 44 17 7 59 28 26 Michael Bowden R 27 53 0 64.0 54 27 7 59 30 28 Scott Baker R 32 11 10 49.3 37 16 9 50 28 26 Kevin Gregg R 36 48 0 50.0 44 24 5 47 24 22 Chang-Yong Lim R 38 36 0 32.3 31 17 2 30 15 14 Matt Guerrier R 35 42 0 36.7 27 14 3 35 17 16 Alex Burnett R 26 47 0 46.7 28 18 4 47 22 21 Neil Ramirez R 25 25 25 103.7 90 60 13 102 61 57 Hector Rondon R 26 25 0 30.7 25 12 3 29 15 14 Brian Schlitter R 28 53 0 65.0 42 19 6 67 32 30 Eric Jokisch L 24 26 25 139.0 89 61 19 150 82 77 Brooks Raley L 26 29 24 139.0 78 53 19 153 82 77 Jeffry Antigua L 24 35 3 79.3 57 31 11 83 44 41 Arodys Vizcaino R 23 23 10 58.0 40 27 8 64 35 33 Dallas Beeler R 25 18 18 88.7 43 30 12 102 55 51 Rafael Dolis R 26 40 0 45.7 30 23 4 46 25 23 Alberto Cabrera R 25 42 14 113.0 87 49 16 118 66 62 Hisanori Takahashi L 39 39 0 45.3 40 20 6 44 25 23 Casey Coleman R 26 35 12 97.0 67 44 13 103 58 54 Tommy Hottovy L 32 42 0 47.3 36 21 6 48 27 25 Marcus Hatley R 26 48 0 57.7 50 38 6 55 32 30 Daniel Bard R 29 39 3 50.7 42 44 5 46 31 29 Carlos Pimentel R 24 30 15 96.0 75 62 14 100 63 59 Jonathan Sanchez L 31 18 18 84.3 75 59 14 86 58 54 Brett Marshall R 24 27 25 137.3 89 82 26 154 101 94 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Jeff Samardzija 184.3 777 23.0% 7.2% .288 3.56 3.43 90 87 Travis Wood 183.3 783 17.4% 7.8% .271 3.88 4.16 98 105 Edwin Jackson 173.7 752 18.5% 7.2% .297 3.99 3.64 101 92 Carlos Villanueva 114.0 484 19.8% 7.6% .275 3.79 3.82 96 96 Justin Grimm 135.0 593 16.0% 7.9% .298 4.27 4.00 108 101 Kyle Hendricks 139.3 596 13.6% 3.9% .293 4.46 4.35 113 110 Pedro Strop 63.0 271 23.6% 10.7% .286 3.29 3.60 83 91 Jose Veras 61.7 263 25.8% 10.6% .283 3.36 3.38 85 85 Jake Arrieta 139.7 623 18.5% 11.1% .285 4.64 4.62 117 117 Corey Black 88.7 402 17.9% 12.7% .290 4.47 4.52 113 114 Chris Rusin 155.7 687 12.1% 7.3% .287 4.68 4.69 118 118 Wesley Wright 57.7 244 23.4% 8.2% .291 3.43 3.42 87 86 Tsuyoshi Wada 94.7 423 16.8% 9.7% .290 4.75 4.78 120 121 Barret Loux 98.3 446 14.8% 11.0% .293 4.76 4.76 120 120 Kyuji Fujikawa 28.7 120 26.6% 8.3% .287 3.45 3.46 87 87 Blake Parker 54.0 234 23.5% 10.3% .288 3.83 3.92 97 99 Zac Rosscup 40.3 180 25.0% 13.9% .292 3.79 4.21 96 106 James Russell 59.7 255 17.2% 6.7% .279 3.92 3.73 99 94 Michael Bowden 64.0 278 19.4% 9.7% .278 3.94 4.12 99 104 Scott Baker 49.3 214 17.3% 7.5% .274 4.74 4.98 120 126 Kevin Gregg 50.0 221 19.9% 10.9% .288 3.96 4.05 100 102 Chang-Yong Lim 32.3 144 21.5% 11.8% .305 3.90 3.63 98 92 Matt Guerrier 36.7 159 17.0% 8.8% .280 3.93 3.73 99 94 Alex Burnett 46.7 205 13.7% 8.8% .285 4.05 4.27 102 108 Neil Ramirez 103.7 473 19.0% 12.7% .294 4.95 4.90 125 124 Hector Rondon 30.7 133 18.8% 9.0% .285 4.11 3.79 104 96 Brian Schlitter 65.0 281 14.9% 6.8% .292 4.15 4.00 105 101 Eric Jokisch 139.0 628 14.2% 9.7% .292 4.99 5.08 126 128 Brooks Raley 139.0 623 12.5% 8.5% .289 4.99 5.07 126 128 Jeffry Antigua 79.3 352 16.2% 8.8% .290 4.65 4.76 117 120 Arodys Vizcaino 58.0 265 15.1% 10.2% .299 5.12 4.99 129 126 Dallas Beeler 88.7 398 10.8% 7.5% .294 5.18 5.11 131 129 Rafael Dolis 45.7 206 14.6% 11.2% .287 4.53 4.54 114 115 Alberto Cabrera 113.0 506 17.2% 9.7% .294 4.94 4.81 125 121 Hisanori Takahashi 45.3 200 20.0% 10.0% .288 4.57 4.42 115 112 Casey Coleman 97.0 438 15.3% 10.0% .291 5.01 4.89 126 123 Tommy Hottovy 47.3 211 17.1% 10.0% .290 4.75 4.66 120 118 Marcus Hatley 57.7 266 18.8% 14.3% .291 4.68 4.77 118 120 Daniel Bard 50.7 242 17.3% 18.2% .279 5.15 5.48 130 138 Carlos Pimentel 96.0 450 16.7% 13.8% .296 5.53 5.59 140 141 Jonathan Sanchez 84.3 398 18.8% 14.8% .295 5.76 5.73 145 145 Brett Marshall 137.3 648 13.7% 12.7% .290 6.16 6.20 155 157 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp Jeff Samardzija 184.3 8.74 2.73 0.93 109 3.2 Erik Hanson Travis Wood 183.3 6.68 3.00 1.03 101 2.4 Allen Watson Edwin Jackson 173.7 7.20 2.80 0.88 98 2.1 Jaime Navarro Carlos Villanueva 114.0 7.58 2.92 1.03 103 1.4 Barry Manuel Justin Grimm 135.0 6.33 3.13 0.80 91 1.1 Mike LaCoss Kyle Hendricks 139.3 5.23 1.49 1.23 88 0.9 Josh Towers Pedro Strop 63.0 9.14 4.14 0.71 119 0.7 Jorge Vasquez Jose Veras 61.7 9.92 4.08 0.73 116 0.6 Rich DeLucia Jake Arrieta 139.7 7.41 4.45 1.10 84 0.6 Jason Beverlin Corey Black 88.7 7.31 5.17 0.81 87 0.6 Donnie Elliott Chris Rusin 155.7 4.80 2.89 1.10 83 0.6 Heath Phillips Wesley Wright 57.7 8.89 3.12 0.78 114 0.5 John Grabow Tsuyoshi Wada 94.7 6.75 3.90 1.24 82 0.3 Darren Oliver Barret Loux 98.3 6.04 4.49 0.92 82 0.3 Bill Mooneyham Kyuji Fujikawa 28.7 10.03 3.14 0.94 113 0.2 Jeff Parrett Blake Parker 54.0 9.17 4.00 1.00 102 0.2 Karl Best Zac Rosscup 40.3 10.05 5.58 0.89 103 0.2 Armando Almanza James Russell 59.7 6.63 2.56 1.06 100 0.2 Erasmo Ramirez Michael Bowden 64.0 7.59 3.80 0.98 99 0.2 Jeff Faino Scott Baker 49.3 6.75 2.92 1.64 82 0.1 Bill Gullickson Kevin Gregg 50.0 7.92 4.32 0.90 99 0.1 Don Aase Chang-Yong Lim 32.3 8.64 4.74 0.56 100 0.1 Mike Fetters Matt Guerrier 36.7 6.62 3.43 0.74 99 0.1 Darrin Babineaux Alex Burnett 46.7 5.40 3.47 0.77 96 0.1 Jim Hannan Neil Ramirez 103.7 7.81 5.21 1.13 79 0.0 Charlie Puleo Hector Rondon 30.7 7.33 3.52 0.88 95 0.0 Steve Ellsworth Brian Schlitter 65.0 5.82 2.63 0.83 94 0.0 Tim McNab Eric Jokisch 139.0 5.76 3.95 1.23 78 0.0 Brian Barkley Brooks Raley 139.0 5.05 3.43 1.23 78 -0.1 Sam McConnell Jeffry Antigua 79.3 6.47 3.52 1.25 84 -0.2 Jason Miller Arodys Vizcaino 58.0 6.21 4.19 1.24 76 -0.2 Mariano Gomez Dallas Beeler 88.7 4.36 3.04 1.22 75 -0.2 Chris McBride Rafael Dolis 45.7 5.91 4.53 0.79 86 -0.2 Ken Wright Alberto Cabrera 113.0 6.93 3.90 1.27 79 -0.2 Pete Walker Hisanori Takahashi 45.3 7.95 3.97 1.19 85 -0.2 Mike Stanton Casey Coleman 97.0 6.22 4.08 1.21 78 -0.3 Jim Gutierrez Tommy Hottovy 47.3 6.85 4.00 1.14 82 -0.3 Joey Eischen Marcus Hatley 57.7 7.80 5.93 0.94 83 -0.4 Jason Gilfillan Daniel Bard 50.7 7.46 7.81 0.89 76 -0.4 Jake Robbins Carlos Pimentel 96.0 7.03 5.81 1.31 71 -0.8 Alonso Beltran Jonathan Sanchez 84.3 8.01 6.30 1.49 68 -0.8 Dan Smith Brett Marshall 137.3 5.83 5.38 1.70 63 -2.0 Bill Malloy *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.