2014 ZiPS Projections – Chicago Cubs

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago Cubs. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Toronto.

Batters
It’s very possible that the depth-chart graphic below doesn’t accurately represent how certain players will be deployed by manager Rick Renteria in 2014. Because even maybe Rick Renteria doesn’t know how he’ll deploy those players, is mostly why.

Of particular interest are the third-base and also center-/right-field positions. In the case of the former, Luis Valbuena appears to have received the most enthusiastic projection from ZiPS: 1.9 WAR in just 481 plate appearances. Pairing him with the right-handed-batting Donnie Murphy might bear some metaphorical fruit, according to the forecasts here. That said, the presence of both Mike Olt and Christian Villanueva — two promising young players, either of whom could benefit from major-league plate appearances — also complicates matters.

In the outfield, a combination of Justin Ruggiano, Nate Schierholtz, and Ryan Sweeney are all available for some combination of center and right field. Ruggiano’s projection (1.7 WAR in 433 PA) is the most encouraging; however, any of three, regardless of handedness or platoon ability, might be superior to expected left-field starter Junior Lake.

Pitchers
In his Letters to a Young Poet, Rainer Maria Rilke writes something to the effect of “Rome is beautiful, because every place is beautiful.” A wonderful sentiment, that, but also patently false — as is demonstrated by the existence of Gresham, Oregon, for example.

Were he alive and also interested in baseball, for some reason, Rilke might suggest that every starting rotation is beautiful. Again, he’d be incorrect — and one would be free to point to the Cubs’ rotation as evidence. It’s not the worst one in the majors; however, speaking as one who has now appended text to 20-plus teams’ worth of projections, the author feels comfortable saying that it also isn’t the most promising.

Bench/Prospects
Much of the Cubs’ future success is tied, probably, to the pretty impressive collection of young, field-playing talent currently extant within the organization. Both Arismendy Alcantara and Javier Baez, for example, are projected to produce wins at a slightly above-average major-league rate already — and yet neither is likely to begin the season with the parent club. Matt Szczur and Logan Watkins, while less celebrated as prospects, also currently profile as useful major-leaguers, if and when given the opportunity.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Cubs, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Starlin Castro	R	24	SS	683	73	180	32	7	13	61	16	8
Anthony Rizzo	L	24	1B	655	79	148	36	2	27	96	6	5
Arismendy Alcantara	B	22	SS	529	61	123	26	5	12	59	25	6
Welington Castillo	R	27	C	404	40	89	19	0	11	40	1	0
Javier Baez	R	21	SS	515	72	117	22	4	28	78	18	5
Luis Valbuena	L	28	3B	481	49	102	22	1	11	50	3	3
Justin Ruggiano	R	32	CF	433	51	96	22	1	16	52	13	7
Darwin Barney	R	28	2B	596	70	139	27	4	6	49	7	2
Matt Szczur	R	24	CF	575	67	136	25	5	4	45	22	10
Christian Villanueva	R	23	3B	557	60	125	32	3	16	64	8	10
Mike Olt	R	25	3B	461	46	90	18	2	15	46	3	1
Nate Schierholtz	L	30	RF	395	46	94	22	3	14	47	5	3
Ryan Sweeney	L	29	CF	303	34	73	16	3	6	30	1	0
George Kottaras	L	31	C	186	18	34	7	1	6	21	1	0
Casper Wells	R	29	LF	265	32	54	12	3	8	20	2	2
Donnie Murphy	R	31	SS	350	43	73	17	2	13	48	3	2
Brett Jackson	L	25	CF	512	58	97	18	7	13	47	16	7
Ryan Roberts	R	33	3B	421	46	89	16	1	9	40	9	6
Logan Watkins	L	24	2B	559	63	115	18	6	8	43	14	7
Rafael Lopez	L	26	C	379	38	81	18	0	6	38	1	1
Jae-Hoon Ha	R	23	CF	457	49	103	20	2	6	39	11	4
Josh Vitters	R	24	3B	393	41	92	19	1	11	44	4	4
Ryan Kalish	L	26	CF	227	28	50	10	0	5	23	11	3
John Andreoli	R	24	LF	533	59	122	18	6	2	37	33	11
Junior Lake	R	24	LF	494	56	116	23	3	10	41	20	9
Jorge Soler	R	22	RF	455	57	106	20	2	12	50	12	4
Cody Ransom	R	38	3B	223	22	38	11	1	8	25	0	0
Mitch Maier	L	32	CF	183	20	38	6	2	3	15	2	1
Aaron Cunningham	R	28	LF	421	44	87	24	2	7	41	5	3
Ty Wright	R	29	LF	386	39	90	18	1	7	38	3	2
Eli Whiteside	R	34	C	219	22	41	7	1	3	17	1	1
Edwin Maysonet	R	32	SS	326	28	67	15	2	3	26	2	2
John Baker	L	33	C	166	13	30	4	0	1	9	1	1
Brad Nelson	L	31	1B	516	51	107	20	1	16	53	2	1
Darnell McDonald	R	35	LF	283	29	58	13	1	5	25	4	3
Chris Coghlan	L	29	LF	369	38	80	17	3	5	28	6	4
Chris Valaika	R	28	2B	375	34	81	16	1	6	34	2	2
Rubi Silva	L	25	RF	550	57	135	23	9	8	53	8	10
Jeudy Valdez	R	25	SS	554	59	112	27	4	10	58	15	11

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Starlin Castro	683	4.8%	16.0%	.133	.319	.280	.319	.413	.319
Anthony Rizzo	655	9.9%	21.2%	.209	.290	.255	.336	.464	.343
Arismendy Alcantara	529	6.8%	26.3%	.150	.331	.255	.307	.405	.314
Welington Castillo	404	8.2%	24.5%	.145	.310	.248	.323	.393	.314
Javier Baez	515	5.0%	32.6%	.240	.313	.246	.295	.486	.340
Luis Valbuena	481	10.6%	20.0%	.135	.285	.241	.325	.376	.307
Justin Ruggiano	433	8.1%	25.6%	.183	.300	.244	.310	.427	.322
Darwin Barney	596	5.4%	11.6%	.096	.278	.253	.299	.349	.283
Matt Szczur	575	6.4%	17.4%	.088	.308	.257	.309	.345	.292
Christian Villanueva	557	4.8%	25.7%	.168	.304	.244	.294	.412	.302
Mike Olt	461	10.0%	30.8%	.163	.293	.220	.299	.383	.300
Nate Schierholtz	395	6.3%	18.0%	.193	.286	.260	.312	.453	.327
Ryan Sweeney	303	7.9%	15.8%	.144	.299	.264	.321	.408	.318
George Kottaras	186	14.5%	25.8%	.173	.272	.218	.335	.391	.321
Casper Wells	265	7.9%	25.7%	.176	.282	.226	.299	.402	.307
Donnie Murphy	350	6.0%	26.3%	.188	.278	.229	.291	.417	.308
Brett Jackson	512	9.6%	36.5%	.156	.327	.213	.294	.369	.294
Ryan Roberts	421	9.3%	19.5%	.119	.278	.237	.308	.356	.293
Logan Watkins	559	8.6%	23.4%	.109	.296	.230	.302	.339	.285
Rafael Lopez	379	7.7%	20.8%	.104	.285	.234	.294	.338	.281
Jae-Hoon Ha	457	6.6%	22.3%	.100	.311	.246	.302	.346	.289
Josh Vitters	393	5.6%	19.6%	.148	.290	.253	.300	.401	.305
Ryan Kalish	227	7.9%	21.6%	.122	.294	.244	.305	.366	.302
John Andreoli	533	8.8%	24.8%	.075	.345	.255	.323	.330	.298
Junior Lake	494	4.9%	28.1%	.128	.338	.252	.295	.380	.297
Jorge Soler	455	6.4%	20.2%	.143	.295	.253	.303	.396	.308
Cody Ransom	223	10.3%	36.3%	.189	.280	.194	.285	.383	.295
Mitch Maier	183	10.9%	23.0%	.118	.299	.236	.319	.354	.300
Aaron Cunningham	421	7.4%	20.4%	.129	.276	.228	.294	.357	.288
Ty Wright	386	5.4%	16.3%	.115	.285	.251	.296	.366	.292
Eli Whiteside	219	5.5%	26.5%	.089	.266	.203	.252	.292	.239
Edwin Maysonet	326	4.3%	20.6%	.094	.276	.224	.266	.318	.253
John Baker	166	9.6%	24.7%	.047	.271	.203	.283	.250	.243
Brad Nelson	516	8.1%	23.3%	.150	.271	.229	.293	.379	.296
Darnell McDonald	283	7.4%	20.5%	.117	.272	.227	.288	.344	.279
Chris Coghlan	369	8.4%	16.8%	.114	.281	.242	.310	.356	.292
Chris Valaika	375	4.3%	20.0%	.103	.276	.232	.271	.335	.266
Rubi Silva	550	2.2%	24.9%	.122	.327	.255	.271	.377	.276
Jeudy Valdez	554	4.3%	28.0%	.125	.287	.217	.258	.342	.260

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Starlin Castro	683	4.9	99	-4	3.0	Rennie Stennett
Anthony Rizzo	655	5.6	116	7	2.9	Carlos Pena
Arismendy Alcantara	529	4.8	93	0	2.4	Tony Batista
Welington Castillo	404	4.6	95	1	2.2	Ronny Paulino
Javier Baez	515	5.3	110	-9	2.2	Cal Ripken
Luis Valbuena	481	4.3	92	5	1.9	Ed Giovanola
Justin Ruggiano	433	4.7	100	-1	1.7	Preston Wilson
Darwin Barney	596	3.8	77	10	1.6	Kevin Howard
Matt Szczur	575	3.9	79	6	1.4	Bruce Fields
Christian Villanueva	557	4.1	91	1	1.3	Stan Royer
Mike Olt	461	4.0	85	2	1.2	Mike Costanzo
Nate Schierholtz	395	5.1	107	0	1.1	Randy Bush
Ryan Sweeney	303	4.8	98	-1	1.0	Dave Martinez
George Kottaras	186	4.6	98	-3	0.8	Earl Grace
Casper Wells	265	4.1	90	5	0.8	Scott Wade
Donnie Murphy	350	4.2	91	-5	0.8	Nick Green
Brett Jackson	512	3.8	81	-1	0.8	Chris Dickerson
Ryan Roberts	421	3.8	82	0	0.7	Rico Rossy
Logan Watkins	559	3.6	75	1	0.7	Angel Escobar
Rafael Lopez	379	3.5	73	-3	0.6	Alberto Castillo
Jae-Hoon Ha	457	3.8	77	-1	0.5	Jim Olander
Josh Vitters	393	4.2	90	-4	0.5	Ryan Gripp
Ryan Kalish	227	4.3	83	0	0.5	Scott Lusader
John Andreoli	533	4.1	80	2	0.4	Kevin Rhomberg
Junior Lake	494	4.1	83	2	0.3	Rod Allen
Jorge Soler	455	4.5	90	-2	0.3	Candy Maldonado
Cody Ransom	223	3.7	81	-3	0.1	Jeff Branson
Mitch Maier	183	4.0	84	-4	0.0	Pat Sheridan
Aaron Cunningham	421	3.6	77	1	-0.2	Chad Alexander
Ty Wright	386	3.9	80	0	-0.2	Chan Perry
Eli Whiteside	219	2.5	49	0	-0.2	Frank Charles
Edwin Maysonet	326	2.9	59	-1	-0.3	Kevin Baez
John Baker	166	2.3	48	-2	-0.3	Kirt Manwaring
Brad Nelson	516	3.9	82	1	-0.4	Kevin Barker
Darnell McDonald	283	3.4	72	0	-0.4	Felipe Zayas
Chris Coghlan	369	3.9	82	-4	-0.5	Bubba Carpenter
Chris Valaika	375	3.1	65	-3	-0.6	Josh Arteaga
Rubi Silva	550	3.5	75	0	-1.0	Bruce Fields
Jeudy Valdez	554	2.9	63	-10	-1.2	Mike Benjamin

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Jeff Samardzija	R	29	29	29	184.3	179	56	19	168	78	73
Travis Wood	L	27	31	31	183.3	136	61	21	172	85	79
Edwin Jackson	R	30	29	29	173.7	139	54	17	177	82	77
Carlos Villanueva	R	30	39	14	114.0	96	37	13	105	51	48
Justin Grimm	R	25	30	24	135.0	95	47	12	141	68	64
Kyle Hendricks	R	24	25	24	139.3	81	23	19	155	74	69
Pedro Strop	R	29	66	0	63.0	64	29	5	53	25	23
Jose Veras	R	33	67	0	61.7	68	28	5	50	25	23
Jake Arrieta	R	28	28	26	139.7	115	69	17	135	77	72
Corey Black	R	22	21	21	88.7	72	51	8	85	47	44
Chris Rusin	L	27	29	28	155.7	83	50	19	170	87	81
Wesley Wright	L	29	69	1	57.7	57	20	5	51	24	22
Tsuyoshi Wada	L	33	17	17	94.7	71	41	13	98	54	50
Barret Loux	R	25	22	21	98.3	66	49	10	102	56	52
Kyuji Fujikawa	R	33	32	0	28.7	32	10	3	24	12	11
Blake Parker	R	29	51	0	54.0	55	24	6	48	25	23
Zac Rosscup	L	26	39	0	40.3	45	25	4	34	18	17
James Russell	L	28	72	0	59.7	44	17	7	59	28	26
Michael Bowden	R	27	53	0	64.0	54	27	7	59	30	28
Scott Baker	R	32	11	10	49.3	37	16	9	50	28	26
Kevin Gregg	R	36	48	0	50.0	44	24	5	47	24	22
Chang-Yong Lim	R	38	36	0	32.3	31	17	2	30	15	14
Matt Guerrier	R	35	42	0	36.7	27	14	3	35	17	16
Alex Burnett	R	26	47	0	46.7	28	18	4	47	22	21
Neil Ramirez	R	25	25	25	103.7	90	60	13	102	61	57
Hector Rondon	R	26	25	0	30.7	25	12	3	29	15	14
Brian Schlitter	R	28	53	0	65.0	42	19	6	67	32	30
Eric Jokisch	L	24	26	25	139.0	89	61	19	150	82	77
Brooks Raley	L	26	29	24	139.0	78	53	19	153	82	77
Jeffry Antigua	L	24	35	3	79.3	57	31	11	83	44	41
Arodys Vizcaino	R	23	23	10	58.0	40	27	8	64	35	33
Dallas Beeler	R	25	18	18	88.7	43	30	12	102	55	51
Rafael Dolis	R	26	40	0	45.7	30	23	4	46	25	23
Alberto Cabrera	R	25	42	14	113.0	87	49	16	118	66	62
Hisanori Takahashi	L	39	39	0	45.3	40	20	6	44	25	23
Casey Coleman	R	26	35	12	97.0	67	44	13	103	58	54
Tommy Hottovy	L	32	42	0	47.3	36	21	6	48	27	25
Marcus Hatley	R	26	48	0	57.7	50	38	6	55	32	30
Daniel Bard	R	29	39	3	50.7	42	44	5	46	31	29
Carlos Pimentel	R	24	30	15	96.0	75	62	14	100	63	59
Jonathan Sanchez	L	31	18	18	84.3	75	59	14	86	58	54
Brett Marshall	R	24	27	25	137.3	89	82	26	154	101	94

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Jeff Samardzija	184.3	777	23.0%	7.2%	.288	3.56	3.43	90	87
Travis Wood	183.3	783	17.4%	7.8%	.271	3.88	4.16	98	105
Edwin Jackson	173.7	752	18.5%	7.2%	.297	3.99	3.64	101	92
Carlos Villanueva	114.0	484	19.8%	7.6%	.275	3.79	3.82	96	96
Justin Grimm	135.0	593	16.0%	7.9%	.298	4.27	4.00	108	101
Kyle Hendricks	139.3	596	13.6%	3.9%	.293	4.46	4.35	113	110
Pedro Strop	63.0	271	23.6%	10.7%	.286	3.29	3.60	83	91
Jose Veras	61.7	263	25.8%	10.6%	.283	3.36	3.38	85	85
Jake Arrieta	139.7	623	18.5%	11.1%	.285	4.64	4.62	117	117
Corey Black	88.7	402	17.9%	12.7%	.290	4.47	4.52	113	114
Chris Rusin	155.7	687	12.1%	7.3%	.287	4.68	4.69	118	118
Wesley Wright	57.7	244	23.4%	8.2%	.291	3.43	3.42	87	86
Tsuyoshi Wada	94.7	423	16.8%	9.7%	.290	4.75	4.78	120	121
Barret Loux	98.3	446	14.8%	11.0%	.293	4.76	4.76	120	120
Kyuji Fujikawa	28.7	120	26.6%	8.3%	.287	3.45	3.46	87	87
Blake Parker	54.0	234	23.5%	10.3%	.288	3.83	3.92	97	99
Zac Rosscup	40.3	180	25.0%	13.9%	.292	3.79	4.21	96	106
James Russell	59.7	255	17.2%	6.7%	.279	3.92	3.73	99	94
Michael Bowden	64.0	278	19.4%	9.7%	.278	3.94	4.12	99	104
Scott Baker	49.3	214	17.3%	7.5%	.274	4.74	4.98	120	126
Kevin Gregg	50.0	221	19.9%	10.9%	.288	3.96	4.05	100	102
Chang-Yong Lim	32.3	144	21.5%	11.8%	.305	3.90	3.63	98	92
Matt Guerrier	36.7	159	17.0%	8.8%	.280	3.93	3.73	99	94
Alex Burnett	46.7	205	13.7%	8.8%	.285	4.05	4.27	102	108
Neil Ramirez	103.7	473	19.0%	12.7%	.294	4.95	4.90	125	124
Hector Rondon	30.7	133	18.8%	9.0%	.285	4.11	3.79	104	96
Brian Schlitter	65.0	281	14.9%	6.8%	.292	4.15	4.00	105	101
Eric Jokisch	139.0	628	14.2%	9.7%	.292	4.99	5.08	126	128
Brooks Raley	139.0	623	12.5%	8.5%	.289	4.99	5.07	126	128
Jeffry Antigua	79.3	352	16.2%	8.8%	.290	4.65	4.76	117	120
Arodys Vizcaino	58.0	265	15.1%	10.2%	.299	5.12	4.99	129	126
Dallas Beeler	88.7	398	10.8%	7.5%	.294	5.18	5.11	131	129
Rafael Dolis	45.7	206	14.6%	11.2%	.287	4.53	4.54	114	115
Alberto Cabrera	113.0	506	17.2%	9.7%	.294	4.94	4.81	125	121
Hisanori Takahashi	45.3	200	20.0%	10.0%	.288	4.57	4.42	115	112
Casey Coleman	97.0	438	15.3%	10.0%	.291	5.01	4.89	126	123
Tommy Hottovy	47.3	211	17.1%	10.0%	.290	4.75	4.66	120	118
Marcus Hatley	57.7	266	18.8%	14.3%	.291	4.68	4.77	118	120
Daniel Bard	50.7	242	17.3%	18.2%	.279	5.15	5.48	130	138
Carlos Pimentel	96.0	450	16.7%	13.8%	.296	5.53	5.59	140	141
Jonathan Sanchez	84.3	398	18.8%	14.8%	.295	5.76	5.73	145	145
Brett Marshall	137.3	648	13.7%	12.7%	.290	6.16	6.20	155	157

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Jeff Samardzija	184.3	8.74	2.73	0.93	109	3.2	Erik Hanson
Travis Wood	183.3	6.68	3.00	1.03	101	2.4	Allen Watson
Edwin Jackson	173.7	7.20	2.80	0.88	98	2.1	Jaime Navarro
Carlos Villanueva	114.0	7.58	2.92	1.03	103	1.4	Barry Manuel
Justin Grimm	135.0	6.33	3.13	0.80	91	1.1	Mike LaCoss
Kyle Hendricks	139.3	5.23	1.49	1.23	88	0.9	Josh Towers
Pedro Strop	63.0	9.14	4.14	0.71	119	0.7	Jorge Vasquez
Jose Veras	61.7	9.92	4.08	0.73	116	0.6	Rich DeLucia
Jake Arrieta	139.7	7.41	4.45	1.10	84	0.6	Jason Beverlin
Corey Black	88.7	7.31	5.17	0.81	87	0.6	Donnie Elliott
Chris Rusin	155.7	4.80	2.89	1.10	83	0.6	Heath Phillips
Wesley Wright	57.7	8.89	3.12	0.78	114	0.5	John Grabow
Tsuyoshi Wada	94.7	6.75	3.90	1.24	82	0.3	Darren Oliver
Barret Loux	98.3	6.04	4.49	0.92	82	0.3	Bill Mooneyham
Kyuji Fujikawa	28.7	10.03	3.14	0.94	113	0.2	Jeff Parrett
Blake Parker	54.0	9.17	4.00	1.00	102	0.2	Karl Best
Zac Rosscup	40.3	10.05	5.58	0.89	103	0.2	Armando Almanza
James Russell	59.7	6.63	2.56	1.06	100	0.2	Erasmo Ramirez
Michael Bowden	64.0	7.59	3.80	0.98	99	0.2	Jeff Faino
Scott Baker	49.3	6.75	2.92	1.64	82	0.1	Bill Gullickson
Kevin Gregg	50.0	7.92	4.32	0.90	99	0.1	Don Aase
Chang-Yong Lim	32.3	8.64	4.74	0.56	100	0.1	Mike Fetters
Matt Guerrier	36.7	6.62	3.43	0.74	99	0.1	Darrin Babineaux
Alex Burnett	46.7	5.40	3.47	0.77	96	0.1	Jim Hannan
Neil Ramirez	103.7	7.81	5.21	1.13	79	0.0	Charlie Puleo
Hector Rondon	30.7	7.33	3.52	0.88	95	0.0	Steve Ellsworth
Brian Schlitter	65.0	5.82	2.63	0.83	94	0.0	Tim McNab
Eric Jokisch	139.0	5.76	3.95	1.23	78	0.0	Brian Barkley
Brooks Raley	139.0	5.05	3.43	1.23	78	-0.1	Sam McConnell
Jeffry Antigua	79.3	6.47	3.52	1.25	84	-0.2	Jason Miller
Arodys Vizcaino	58.0	6.21	4.19	1.24	76	-0.2	Mariano Gomez
Dallas Beeler	88.7	4.36	3.04	1.22	75	-0.2	Chris McBride
Rafael Dolis	45.7	5.91	4.53	0.79	86	-0.2	Ken Wright
Alberto Cabrera	113.0	6.93	3.90	1.27	79	-0.2	Pete Walker
Hisanori Takahashi	45.3	7.95	3.97	1.19	85	-0.2	Mike Stanton
Casey Coleman	97.0	6.22	4.08	1.21	78	-0.3	Jim Gutierrez
Tommy Hottovy	47.3	6.85	4.00	1.14	82	-0.3	Joey Eischen
Marcus Hatley	57.7	7.80	5.93	0.94	83	-0.4	Jason Gilfillan
Daniel Bard	50.7	7.46	7.81	0.89	76	-0.4	Jake Robbins
Carlos Pimentel	96.0	7.03	5.81	1.31	71	-0.8	Alonso Beltran
Jonathan Sanchez	84.3	8.01	6.30	1.49	68	-0.8	Dan Smith
Brett Marshall	137.3	5.83	5.38	1.70	63	-2.0	Bill Malloy

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2014 ZiPS Projections – Chicago Cubs by Carson Cistulli!

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