2014 ZiPS Projections – Chicago White Sox

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago White Sox. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis / Tampa Bay.

Batters
Despite having performed no rigorous analysis on the matter, the author nevertheless feels comfortable asserting that it’s difficult for a club that features just one above-average hitter — it’s difficult for that sort of club to win very much. Unfortunately, barring any sort of further offseason acquisitions, this appears to be the sort of club with which the Chicago White Sox enter the 2014 season. According to ZiPS, the next-best projected batting line after Cuban emigre Jose Abreu’s 129 OPS+ is the 97 OPS+ shared both by Adam Dunn and Avisail Garcia.

That Cuban emigre Jose Abreu’s No. 1 comp is Paul Konerko might amuse the reader — on account of Konerko is more or less the player whom Abreu is replacing, that is. This particular comparison also serves as a pretense upon which to remind the reader that all comparable players pertain only to the age-season into which the projected player is entering. So, for example, the season of interest regarding Konerko as it pertains to Abreu is the former’s age-27 one — which, besides a deflated BABIP, wasn’t a bad one.

Pitchers
The best player on the White Sox, by kinda a lot, is Chris Sale. Indeed, a brief inspection of the 19 clubs now having been considered in this ongoing release of ZiPS reveals that only one other pitcher has received a projected WAR value as high as Sale’s: Detroit right-hander Justin Verlander (whose projection one can find here). Whatever the concerns about Sale’s durability, only 17 pitchers have recorded as many innings as him over the last two seasons — hardly any of them as effectively as Sale.

Note that, in the depth-chart graphic below, starting pitchers are ordered not by their most likely spot in the rotation, but by their projected ZiPS WAR. Note also that there’s probably a case to be made for including Andre Rienzo instead of Felipe Paulino. Ultimately, both might appear in the rotation. For, as Jeff Sullivan recently noted, fifth starters still don’t exist, really.

Bench/Prospects
Because he was selected in the Rule 5 draft, Adrian Nieto must either remain on the White Sox’ 25-man roster or be returned to the club from which he was taken (in this case, the Washington Nationals). Per ZiPS, at least, the best catching combination would be to start Josh Phegley and let either Flowers or Nieto back him up. This seems improbable, however. Elsewhere, infielder Marcus Semien appears qualified to produce wins at more or less a league-average rate — a rarity on this edition of the White Sox.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the White Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Jose Abreu	R	27	1B	538	79	127	23	1	26	65	2	5
Alexei Ramirez	R	32	SS	650	67	164	32	3	9	56	18	8
Marcus Semien	R	23	SS	629	86	135	28	4	15	66	15	6
Alejandro De Aza	L	30	CF	634	81	152	28	5	13	56	22	11
Josh Phegley	R	26	C	460	48	106	20	1	13	53	2	1
Matt Davidson	R	23	3B	600	66	126	26	2	21	68	2	2
Adam Eaton	L	25	CF	562	71	123	22	4	6	43	22	8
Gordon Beckham	R	27	2B	528	60	121	25	1	10	41	5	3
Trayce Thompson	R	23	CF	597	72	116	22	4	21	68	17	6
Avisail Garcia	R	23	RF	541	66	144	15	6	15	59	11	7
Jordan Danks	L	27	CF	453	49	92	16	3	10	37	12	4
Conor Gillaspie	L	26	3B	516	56	117	18	4	12	50	2	3
Hector Gimenez	B	31	C	262	27	53	12	1	8	34	1	0
Adrian Nieto	B	24	C	408	44	77	16	1	10	40	3	2
Tyler Flowers	R	28	C	298	31	54	11	0	11	28	1	1
Jake Elmore	R	27	2B	510	56	108	18	3	5	38	16	10
Leury Garcia	B	23	2B	421	41	97	11	5	4	26	25	8
Dayan Viciedo	R	25	LF	569	60	138	24	2	19	69	1	1
Tyler Saladino	R	24	SS	537	58	105	18	3	10	45	18	8
Adam Dunn	L	34	DH	543	61	95	16	0	28	77	1	1
Jeff Keppinger	R	34	2B	448	45	115	16	1	7	42	1	1
Alex Liddi	R	25	3B	549	72	114	24	3	18	67	8	4
Bryan Anderson	L	27	C	341	32	65	13	1	8	30	1	0
DeWayne Wise	L	36	CF	221	23	47	9	2	5	18	9	3
Miguel Gonzalez	R	23	C	250	22	53	8	1	2	17	2	1
Cody Puckett	R	27	3B	462	50	95	18	1	17	55	8	3
Carlos Sanchez	B	22	2B	552	52	127	20	3	1	31	18	11
Dan Black	B	26	1B	575	65	121	24	2	17	65	5	3
Paul Konerko	R	38	1B	504	46	118	16	0	15	56	0	0
Jaime Pedroza	B	27	SS	376	33	73	12	2	7	30	5	3
Blake Tekotte	L	27	CF	444	47	83	20	3	10	39	15	9
Denis Phipps	R	28	CF	498	52	99	22	2	11	45	8	4
Angel Sanchez	R	30	3B	304	32	65	9	1	2	24	3	1
Keenyn Walker	B	23	RF	530	55	91	15	4	5	33	33	15
Jared Mitchell	L	25	LF	479	47	70	14	4	10	36	13	6

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Jose Abreu	538	10.6%	17.1%	.221	.288	.273	.364	.494	.371
Alexei Ramirez	650	4.3%	11.5%	.107	.293	.269	.304	.376	.296
Marcus Semien	629	10.0%	21.1%	.145	.292	.243	.323	.388	.316
Alejandro De Aza	634	7.1%	19.2%	.135	.314	.265	.323	.400	.314
Josh Phegley	460	3.9%	18.7%	.142	.276	.245	.281	.387	.291
Matt Davidson	600	8.8%	30.7%	.174	.314	.236	.312	.410	.316
Adam Eaton	562	9.1%	18.1%	.097	.304	.251	.338	.348	.310
Gordon Beckham	528	6.8%	16.5%	.119	.290	.254	.314	.373	.301
Trayce Thompson	597	7.9%	32.2%	.174	.291	.217	.287	.391	.300
Avisail Garcia	541	4.1%	20.9%	.141	.334	.282	.316	.423	.321
Jordan Danks	453	9.5%	30.9%	.129	.323	.229	.307	.358	.296
Conor Gillaspie	516	8.3%	17.6%	.133	.286	.252	.313	.385	.302
Hector Gimenez	262	7.3%	26.7%	.159	.276	.223	.280	.382	.288
Adrian Nieto	408	9.1%	32.1%	.131	.295	.211	.285	.342	.280
Tyler Flowers	298	8.7%	34.9%	.166	.287	.205	.290	.371	.292
Jake Elmore	510	9.6%	16.5%	.088	.285	.242	.321	.330	.289
Leury Garcia	421	5.2%	24.9%	.084	.329	.249	.291	.333	.279
Dayan Viciedo	569	5.8%	20.9%	.162	.304	.262	.311	.424	.321
Tyler Saladino	537	8.8%	25.0%	.113	.283	.221	.296	.334	.283
Adam Dunn	543	13.6%	34.4%	.216	.267	.205	.317	.421	.322
Jeff Keppinger	448	5.1%	7.6%	.093	.284	.276	.314	.369	.299
Alex Liddi	549	6.7%	31.9%	.167	.306	.226	.282	.393	.294
Bryan Anderson	341	8.2%	28.2%	.127	.277	.211	.282	.338	.276
DeWayne Wise	221	4.1%	25.8%	.134	.284	.225	.262	.359	.276
Miguel Gonzalez	250	6.4%	20.8%	.071	.291	.233	.287	.304	.263
Cody Puckett	462	5.8%	26.8%	.167	.269	.222	.271	.389	.290
Carlos Sanchez	552	5.4%	18.3%	.058	.310	.251	.298	.309	.267
Dan Black	575	9.4%	25.4%	.154	.294	.236	.310	.390	.307
Paul Konerko	504	8.3%	14.7%	.134	.280	.260	.327	.394	.317
Jaime Pedroza	376	8.2%	28.5%	.109	.293	.216	.287	.325	.273
Blake Tekotte	444	8.1%	30.9%	.141	.290	.209	.282	.350	.279
Denis Phipps	498	7.2%	30.5%	.129	.299	.218	.280	.347	.279
Angel Sanchez	304	7.2%	13.2%	.062	.270	.237	.298	.299	.267
Keenyn Walker	530	9.8%	36.2%	.081	.317	.195	.283	.276	.258
Jared Mitchell	479	9.8%	46.1%	.123	.309	.165	.256	.288	.247

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Jose Abreu	538	6.5	129	-3	2.3	Paul Konerko
Alexei Ramirez	650	4.3	82	5	2.1	Bill Russell
Marcus Semien	629	4.5	91	-6	1.9	Jay Bell
Alejandro De Aza	634	4.8	94	-3	1.7	Randy Winn
Josh Phegley	460	3.9	78	4	1.6	Rod Barajas
Matt Davidson	600	4.5	93	-3	1.5	Mark Reynolds
Adam Eaton	562	4.4	86	-1	1.5	Jeremy Reed
Gordon Beckham	528	4.2	85	-1	1.0	Tim Dulin
Trayce Thompson	597	4.0	81	-1	0.9	Chad Hermansen
Avisail Garcia	541	5.0	97	0	0.9	Raul Mondesi
Jordan Danks	453	4.0	79	1	0.9	Kevin Koslofski
Conor Gillaspie	516	4.3	87	-2	0.8	Peter Ciofrone
Hector Gimenez	262	3.8	76	0	0.7	Chad Moeller
Adrian Nieto	408	3.3	69	-1	0.6	David Ross
Tyler Flowers	298	3.6	77	-2	0.6	Sal Fasano
Jake Elmore	510	3.7	76	1	0.6	Peter Peltz
Leury Garcia	421	3.7	68	5	0.6	Juan Bell
Dayan Viciedo	569	4.8	96	-3	0.6	Mark Quinn
Tyler Saladino	537	3.5	70	-1	0.5	Adam Davis
Adam Dunn	543	4.5	97	0	0.5	Jeromy Burnitz
Jeff Keppinger	448	4.3	84	-4	0.3	Jerry Adair
Alex Liddi	549	3.9	80	-4	0.3	Steve Kiefer
Bryan Anderson	341	3.3	66	-3	0.1	Matt Garrick
DeWayne Wise	221	3.4	66	1	0.1	Gerald Williams
Miguel Gonzalez	250	3.1	60	-1	0.0	Jeff Tackett
Cody Puckett	462	3.7	75	-4	0.0	Seth Johnston
Carlos Sanchez	552	3.2	64	4	0.0	Mike Sharperson
Dan Black	575	4.3	87	0	-0.2	Thomas Hubbard
Paul Konerko	504	4.7	94	-5	-0.3	Eric Karros
Jaime Pedroza	376	3.2	65	-5	-0.4	Doug Baker
Blake Tekotte	444	3.3	69	-3	-0.4	Colin Porter
Denis Phipps	498	3.4	68	-4	-0.5	Wil Culmer
Angel Sanchez	304	3.2	62	-3	-0.5	Ed Romero
Keenyn Walker	530	2.7	52	3	-1.6	Bert Hunter
Jared Mitchell	479	2.4	47	4	-1.7	Scott Shores

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Chris Sale	L	25	30	29	204.3	224	49	22	177	77	72
Jose Quintana	L	25	33	32	187.7	151	58	21	185	89	83
Erik Johnson	R	24	25	25	129.7	109	57	17	130	71	66
Eric Surkamp	L	26	22	22	111.0	86	48	15	116	64	60
Nate Jones	R	28	61	0	71.0	76	30	7	64	31	29
Felipe Paulino	R	30	16	11	61.3	63	27	9	58	32	30
Andre Rienzo	R	26	24	24	127.7	96	64	18	135	77	72
John Danks	L	29	21	21	123.0	86	39	21	135	75	70
Matt Lindstrom	R	34	61	0	52.7	42	18	4	52	24	22
Scott Downs	L	38	55	0	37.3	31	16	3	36	17	16
Dylan Axelrod	R	28	28	21	129.7	88	50	20	148	81	76
Ronald Belisario	R	31	74	0	66.7	53	31	6	66	34	32
Jake Petricka	R	26	48	0	68.0	56	43	6	68	36	34
Donnie Veal	L	29	63	0	54.3	52	36	6	51	30	28
Zach Putnam	R	26	40	0	49.3	39	23	6	51	28	26
Daniel Webb	R	24	47	0	62.7	53	39	6	61	35	33
Taylor Thompson	R	27	42	0	54.3	41	29	6	56	31	29
Nestor Molina	R	25	22	14	82.3	52	28	14	98	56	52
Brian Omogrosso	R	30	34	0	48.0	40	23	7	52	29	27
David Purcey	L	32	44	0	51.0	41	36	6	51	31	29
Jairo Asencio	R	31	48	0	50.3	46	26	8	52	31	29
Deunte Heath	R	28	35	5	63.0	47	41	9	67	42	39
Frank De Los Santos	L	26	39	3	59.3	30	31	8	69	40	37
Jeff Gray	R	32	29	0	35.3	22	20	5	39	25	23
Tony Pena	R	33	30	10	81.3	42	45	12	97	58	54
Ramon Troncoso	R	31	48	0	58.0	36	31	9	65	40	37
Leyson Septimo	L	28	37	0	39.7	36	45	6	39	30	28
Charlie Leesman	L	27	24	21	107.3	85	71	19	122	80	75
Omar Poveda	R	26	25	24	133.0	86	78	25	153	97	91
Simon Castro	R	26	26	17	99.7	64	47	22	120	78	73

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Chris Sale	204.3	839	26.7%	5.8%	.291	3.17	3.23	75	77
Jose Quintana	187.7	806	18.7%	7.2%	.287	3.98	3.99	95	95
Erik Johnson	129.7	576	18.9%	9.9%	.293	4.58	4.72	109	112
Eric Surkamp	111.0	497	17.3%	9.7%	.297	4.86	4.91	116	117
Nate Jones	71.0	307	24.8%	9.8%	.297	3.68	3.60	88	86
Felipe Paulino	61.3	269	23.4%	10.0%	.294	4.40	4.51	105	107
Andre Rienzo	127.7	582	16.5%	11.0%	.295	5.08	5.21	121	124
John Danks	123.0	543	15.8%	7.2%	.290	5.12	5.04	122	120
Matt Lindstrom	52.7	228	18.4%	7.9%	.296	3.76	3.61	89	86
Scott Downs	37.3	164	18.9%	9.8%	.292	3.86	3.78	92	90
Dylan Axelrod	129.7	587	15.0%	8.5%	.303	5.28	5.11	126	122
Ronald Belisario	66.7	297	17.8%	10.4%	.295	4.32	4.03	103	96
Jake Petricka	68.0	315	17.8%	13.7%	.302	4.50	4.76	107	113
Donnie Veal	54.3	250	20.8%	14.4%	.294	4.64	4.81	110	114
Zach Putnam	49.3	222	17.6%	10.4%	.298	4.74	4.71	113	112
Daniel Webb	62.7	288	18.4%	13.5%	.297	4.74	4.85	113	115
Taylor Thompson	54.3	248	16.5%	11.7%	.298	4.80	4.88	114	116
Nestor Molina	82.3	373	13.9%	7.5%	.308	5.68	5.38	135	128
Brian Omogrosso	48.0	219	18.3%	10.5%	.306	5.06	4.92	120	117
David Purcey	51.0	240	17.1%	15.0%	.294	5.12	5.35	122	127
Jairo Asencio	50.3	229	20.1%	11.4%	.302	5.19	5.04	124	120
Deunte Heath	63.0	297	15.8%	13.8%	.296	5.57	5.70	133	136
Frank De Los Santos	59.3	278	10.8%	11.2%	.298	5.61	5.60	134	133
Jeff Gray	35.3	165	13.3%	12.1%	.293	5.86	5.65	139	135
Tony Pena	81.3	386	10.9%	11.7%	.303	5.98	5.92	142	141
Ramon Troncoso	58.0	270	13.3%	11.5%	.293	5.74	5.67	137	135
Leyson Septimo	39.7	203	17.7%	22.2%	.292	6.35	6.97	151	166
Charlie Leesman	107.3	515	16.5%	13.8%	.310	6.29	6.12	150	146
Omar Poveda	133.0	630	13.7%	12.4%	.296	6.16	6.24	147	148
Simon Castro	99.7	466	13.7%	10.1%	.301	6.59	6.40	157	152

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Chris Sale	204.3	9.87	2.16	0.97	135	5.7	Greg Swindell
Jose Quintana	187.7	7.24	2.78	1.01	108	3.4	Mark Thurmond
Erik Johnson	129.7	7.56	3.96	1.18	94	1.4	Shawn Boskie
Eric Surkamp	111.0	6.97	3.89	1.22	88	0.8	Tom McGraw
Nate Jones	71.0	9.63	3.80	0.89	117	0.8	Terry Adams
Felipe Paulino	61.3	9.25	3.96	1.32	97	0.7	Peter Palermo
Andre Rienzo	127.7	6.77	4.51	1.27	84	0.6	Tom Edens
John Danks	123.0	6.29	2.85	1.54	84	0.5	Mike Maroth
Matt Lindstrom	52.7	7.17	3.07	0.68	114	0.5	Bryan Corey
Scott Downs	37.3	7.48	3.86	0.72	111	0.3	Brian Shouse
Dylan Axelrod	129.7	6.11	3.47	1.39	81	0.2	Jim Magrane
Ronald Belisario	66.7	7.15	4.18	0.81	99	0.2	Chad Paronto
Jake Petricka	68.0	7.41	5.69	0.79	95	0.0	Heathcliff Slocumb
Donnie Veal	54.3	8.62	5.97	0.99	92	-0.1	Kevin Tolar
Zach Putnam	49.3	7.12	4.20	1.10	90	-0.1	Casey Daigle
Daniel Webb	62.7	7.61	5.60	0.86	90	-0.1	Marc Pisciotta
Taylor Thompson	54.3	6.80	4.81	0.99	89	-0.2	Casey Daigle
Nestor Molina	82.3	5.69	3.06	1.53	75	-0.3	Doug Meiners
Brian Omogrosso	48.0	7.50	4.31	1.31	85	-0.3	Mark Small
David Purcey	51.0	7.24	6.35	1.06	84	-0.3	Sean Fesh
Jairo Asencio	50.3	8.23	4.65	1.43	83	-0.4	Doug Bochtler
Deunte Heath	63.0	6.71	5.86	1.29	77	-0.4	Jake Robbins
Frank De Los Santos	59.3	4.55	4.70	1.21	76	-0.5	Brian Adams
Jeff Gray	35.3	5.61	5.10	1.27	73	-0.6	Moe Burtschy
Tony Pena	81.3	4.65	4.98	1.33	72	-0.7	Hal Elliott
Ramon Troncoso	58.0	5.59	4.81	1.40	75	-0.8	Mike Sullivan
Leyson Septimo	39.7	8.16	10.20	1.36	67	-0.9	Tom Doyle
Charlie Leesman	107.3	7.13	5.96	1.59	68	-1.1	Steve Smyth
Omar Poveda	133.0	5.82	5.28	1.69	70	-1.1	Mark Rothey
Simon Castro	99.7	5.78	4.24	1.99	65	-1.4	Scott Shoemaker

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.