2014 ZiPS Projections – Chicago White Sox

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago White Sox. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis / Tampa Bay.

Batters
Despite having performed no rigorous analysis on the matter, the author nevertheless feels comfortable asserting that it’s difficult for a club that features just one above-average hitter — it’s difficult for that sort of club to win very much. Unfortunately, barring any sort of further offseason acquisitions, this appears to be the sort of club with which the Chicago White Sox enter the 2014 season. According to ZiPS, the next-best projected batting line after Cuban emigre Jose Abreu’s 129 OPS+ is the 97 OPS+ shared both by Adam Dunn and Avisail Garcia.

That Cuban emigre Jose Abreu’s No. 1 comp is Paul Konerko might amuse the reader — on account of Konerko is more or less the player whom Abreu is replacing, that is. This particular comparison also serves as a pretense upon which to remind the reader that all comparable players pertain only to the age-season into which the projected player is entering. So, for example, the season of interest regarding Konerko as it pertains to Abreu is the former’s age-27 one — which, besides a deflated BABIP, wasn’t a bad one.

Pitchers
The best player on the White Sox, by kinda a lot, is Chris Sale. Indeed, a brief inspection of the 19 clubs now having been considered in this ongoing release of ZiPS reveals that only one other pitcher has received a projected WAR value as high as Sale’s: Detroit right-hander Justin Verlander (whose projection one can find here). Whatever the concerns about Sale’s durability, only 17 pitchers have recorded as many innings as him over the last two seasons — hardly any of them as effectively as Sale.

Note that, in the depth-chart graphic below, starting pitchers are ordered not by their most likely spot in the rotation, but by their projected ZiPS WAR. Note also that there’s probably a case to be made for including Andre Rienzo instead of Felipe Paulino. Ultimately, both might appear in the rotation. For, as Jeff Sullivan recently noted, fifth starters still don’t exist, really.

Bench/Prospects
Because he was selected in the Rule 5 draft, Adrian Nieto must either remain on the White Sox’ 25-man roster or be returned to the club from which he was taken (in this case, the Washington Nationals). Per ZiPS, at least, the best catching combination would be to start Josh Phegley and let either Flowers or Nieto back him up. This seems improbable, however. Elsewhere, infielder Marcus Semien appears qualified to produce wins at more or less a league-average rate — a rarity on this edition of the White Sox.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the White Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

***

Batters, Assorted Other

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.