2014 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Dodgers

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cleveland / Miami / Minnesota / New York AL / Philadelphia / San Diego / St. Louis.

Batters
It seems possible, given the ZiPS projections below, that Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez and Matt Kemp won’t quite be worth, on a dollar-per-WAR level, the nearly $65 million they’re owed collectively in 2014. That’s not ideal for the Dodgers, probably. The eight wins they’re forecast to produce, however, still count as eight real wins — and appear likely to be supplemented by contributions from players (Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig, most notably) who are creating lots in the way of marginal value.

Of some interest to readers will be the projection for Cuban emigre Alexander Guerrero. ZiPS is optimistic (2.5 WAR in 665 PA); Steamer, less so (0.2 WAR in 630 PA). A street fight between rival systems, is what appears to be unfolding.

Pitchers
For all of the club’s financial resources and work in the free-agent market, the Dodgers’ best player is one originally drafted by the team in 2006 — namely, left-hander Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw has produced ERAs minus* of 67 or lower each of the past three seasons. ZiPS projects that trend to continue into 2014.

*ERA minuses, is it? ERA-minuses, with a hyphen, perhaps?

After Kershaw isn’t entirely a collection of chopped livers, either. Were it, that’d be strange, of course, on account of no club has ever just allowed a chopped liver to start a baseball game, and chopped livers have no arms, and aren’t even sentient. Not miserable at pitching, however, is Zack Greinke. Less not miserable are also Josh Beckett and Dan Haren and Hyun-Jin Ryu — all of whom are probably league-average or better, according to ZiPS.

Bench/Prospects
Joc Pederson entered the 2013 season absent from most/all of the notable top-100 prospect lists. That same thing is unlikely to happen in 2014, however, after the outfielder exhibited an impressive combination of tools and skills as just a 21-year-old in Double-A. The presence of four useful outfielders already at the major-league level — including Andre Ethier, himself absent from the depth chart below — suggest that Pederson’s future with the parent club is an uncertain one. ZiPS appears to be quite optimistic, however, about how well Pederson’s skill would translate to the major-league game, were he called upon.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Dodgers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

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Batters, Rates and Averages

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Batters, Assorted Other

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Pitchers, Counting Stats

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Pitchers, Rates and Averages

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Pitchers, Assorted Other

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.