2014 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Dodgers

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cleveland / Miami / Minnesota / New York AL / Philadelphia / San Diego / St. Louis.

Batters
It seems possible, given the ZiPS projections below, that Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez and Matt Kemp won’t quite be worth, on a dollar-per-WAR level, the nearly $65 million they’re owed collectively in 2014. That’s not ideal for the Dodgers, probably. The eight wins they’re forecast to produce, however, still count as eight real wins — and appear likely to be supplemented by contributions from players (Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig, most notably) who are creating lots in the way of marginal value.

Of some interest to readers will be the projection for Cuban emigre Alexander Guerrero. ZiPS is optimistic (2.5 WAR in 665 PA); Steamer, less so (0.2 WAR in 630 PA). A street fight between rival systems, is what appears to be unfolding.

Pitchers
For all of the club’s financial resources and work in the free-agent market, the Dodgers’ best player is one originally drafted by the team in 2006 — namely, left-hander Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw has produced ERAs minus* of 67 or lower each of the past three seasons. ZiPS projects that trend to continue into 2014.

*ERA minuses, is it? ERA-minuses, with a hyphen, perhaps?

After Kershaw isn’t entirely a collection of chopped livers, either. Were it, that’d be strange, of course, on account of no club has ever just allowed a chopped liver to start a baseball game, and chopped livers have no arms, and aren’t even sentient. Not miserable at pitching, however, is Zack Greinke. Less not miserable are also Josh Beckett and Dan Haren and Hyun-Jin Ryu — all of whom are probably league-average or better, according to ZiPS.

Bench/Prospects
Joc Pederson entered the 2013 season absent from most/all of the notable top-100 prospect lists. That same thing is unlikely to happen in 2014, however, after the outfielder exhibited an impressive combination of tools and skills as just a 21-year-old in Double-A. The presence of four useful outfielders already at the major-league level — including Andre Ethier, himself absent from the depth chart below — suggest that Pederson’s future with the parent club is an uncertain one. ZiPS appears to be quite optimistic, however, about how well Pederson’s skill would translate to the major-league game, were he called upon.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Dodgers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Yasiel Puig	R	23	RF	579	96	147	27	7	21	79	16	11
Hanley Ramirez	R	30	SS	491	74	122	24	3	21	74	19	7
Adrian Gonzalez	L	32	1B	652	75	166	33	1	22	99	1	0
Matt Kemp	R	29	CF	475	73	117	21	2	20	75	15	4
Alexander Guerrero	R	27	2B	665	85	156	21	1	18	82	1	6
A.J. Ellis	R	33	C	409	39	85	15	2	8	47	0	1
Joc Pederson	L	22	CF	531	74	122	22	4	15	63	21	10
Juan Uribe	R	34	3B	346	37	77	15	1	10	47	2	0
Tim Federowicz	R	26	C	415	41	87	19	1	9	44	0	0
Scott Van Slyke	R	27	RF	483	57	107	24	2	15	61	6	4
Andre Ethier	L	32	RF	550	63	127	29	1	13	63	2	2
Carl Crawford	L	32	LF	443	61	110	23	5	9	44	15	4
Dee Gordon	L	26	SS	529	61	122	14	7	1	33	41	12
Justin Sellers	R	28	SS	364	38	73	17	3	6	35	3	1
Eliezer Alfonzo	R	35	C	225	21	50	9	0	9	27	1	0
J.R. Towles	R	30	C	164	17	33	8	1	3	18	1	1
Damaso Espino	R	31	C	189	16	42	5	0	1	14	0	0
Darnell Sweeney	B	23	SS	519	55	110	19	7	7	48	28	16
Mike Baxter	L	29	RF	328	38	68	14	4	5	27	7	5
Jerry Hairston	R	38	3B	228	18	52	10	0	2	26	0	1
Drew Butera	R	30	C	187	15	37	8	1	2	16	0	0
Nick Buss	L	27	RF	574	65	127	23	8	10	59	16	6
Brendan Harris	R	33	3B	382	37	79	15	2	6	30	1	2
Osvaldo Martinez	R	26	SS	406	41	89	15	1	3	28	7	4
Brian Barden	R	33	3B	307	28	66	12	1	3	25	1	2
Jamie Romak	R	28	RF	512	47	101	23	2	14	49	4	2
Ian Stewart	L	29	3B	279	25	47	10	2	8	27	1	1
Michael Young	R	37	3B	531	50	128	20	4	7	44	1	1
John Baker	L	33	C	167	13	31	3	0	1	10	1	1
Clint Robinson	L	29	1B	530	52	115	25	2	13	54	1	1
Jeremy Hazelbaker	L	26	LF	532	52	112	16	3	12	43	31	10
Sean Burroughs	L	33	3B	220	19	49	10	1	1	18	1	1
J.C. Boscan	R	34	C	247	18	46	8	0	1	14	1	1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Yasiel Puig	579	8.5%	19.7%	.201	.326	.284	.354	.485	.359
Hanley Ramirez	491	8.6%	17.3%	.210	.298	.276	.342	.486	.357
Adrian Gonzalez	652	8.0%	17.0%	.171	.310	.282	.339	.453	.335
Matt Kemp	475	8.6%	24.8%	.199	.331	.274	.339	.473	.342
Alexander Guerrero	665	7.5%	14.4%	.128	.281	.259	.324	.386	.313
A.J. Ellis	409	11.2%	18.3%	.123	.285	.244	.337	.367	.306
Joc Pederson	531	7.3%	24.5%	.155	.315	.253	.314	.408	.318
Juan Uribe	346	6.1%	20.5%	.148	.279	.242	.293	.390	.297
Tim Federowicz	415	8.0%	26.3%	.129	.300	.233	.295	.362	.285
Scott Van Slyke	483	9.7%	25.1%	.170	.310	.249	.325	.420	.325
Andre Ethier	550	9.8%	19.5%	.144	.308	.261	.340	.405	.319
Carl Crawford	443	5.2%	16.5%	.145	.302	.266	.308	.412	.314
Dee Gordon	529	6.4%	17.8%	.064	.308	.251	.303	.315	.281
Justin Sellers	364	6.9%	21.2%	.125	.269	.223	.283	.348	.276
Eliezer Alfonzo	225	1.8%	27.6%	.167	.279	.231	.253	.398	.284
J.R. Towles	164	6.1%	17.7%	.130	.261	.226	.296	.356	.287
Damaso Espino	189	5.3%	15.3%	.045	.279	.239	.282	.284	.254
Darnell Sweeney	519	5.6%	27.4%	.113	.307	.229	.275	.342	.270
Mike Baxter	328	8.8%	19.2%	.128	.281	.234	.317	.362	.301
Jerry Hairston	228	6.6%	10.1%	.077	.272	.251	.305	.329	.277
Drew Butera	187	3.7%	19.8%	.092	.257	.214	.250	.306	.243
Nick Buss	574	4.5%	18.1%	.130	.278	.239	.279	.369	.281
Brendan Harris	382	6.5%	16.8%	.107	.261	.228	.287	.334	.275
Osvaldo Martinez	406	4.7%	16.7%	.069	.278	.235	.276	.303	.257
Brian Barden	307	5.5%	19.2%	.082	.284	.234	.285	.316	.266
Jamie Romak	512	6.8%	25.4%	.148	.268	.216	.278	.364	.283
Ian Stewart	279	9.3%	32.6%	.153	.258	.189	.272	.341	.267
Michael Young	531	6.0%	13.4%	.099	.288	.259	.303	.358	.289
John Baker	167	9.6%	25.1%	.040	.280	.208	.287	.248	.244
Clint Robinson	530	7.7%	18.5%	.140	.272	.238	.300	.378	.298
Jeremy Hazelbaker	532	6.0%	30.6%	.119	.317	.230	.281	.349	.281
Sean Burroughs	220	5.5%	14.1%	.073	.276	.238	.283	.311	.264
J.C. Boscan	247	4.9%	24.3%	.048	.265	.200	.245	.248	.221

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Yasiel Puig	579	6.3	133	2	3.8	Johnny Callison
Hanley Ramirez	491	6.3	130	-5	3.8	Ken Boyer
Adrian Gonzalez	652	5.8	120	8	3.2	Harold Baines
Matt Kemp	475	6.1	125	-7	2.6	Tommie Agee
Alexander Guerrero	665	4.4	99	-1	2.5	Rich Aurilia
A.J. Ellis	409	4.3	98	1	2.4	Chris Cannizzaro
Joc Pederson	531	4.6	101	-1	2.2	Lloyd Moseby
Juan Uribe	346	4.1	90	11	2.1	Chris Truby
Tim Federowicz	415	3.8	84	1	1.6	Tom Nieto
Scott Van Slyke	483	4.9	107	1	1.6	Dustan Mohr
Andre Ethier	550	5.0	108	-2	1.5	Bruce Bochte
Carl Crawford	443	4.8	100	3	1.5	Jim Eisenreich
Dee Gordon	529	3.8	74	-4	0.9	Mickey Morandini
Justin Sellers	364	3.4	76	0	0.7	Jorge Velandia
Eliezer Alfonzo	225	3.6	80	-2	0.5	Joe Oliver
J.R. Towles	164	3.6	82	-2	0.4	Henry Blanco
Damaso Espino	189	2.8	60	1	0.2	Hector Ortiz
Darnell Sweeney	519	3.2	72	-4	0.2	Mariano Duncan
Mike Baxter	328	3.9	90	-2	0.2	Ricky Ledee
Jerry Hairston	228	3.5	78	-1	0.2	Rene Gonzales
Drew Butera	187	2.6	55	1	0.1	Charlie Greene
Nick Buss	574	3.7	80	1	0.0	Benjamin Copeland
Brendan Harris	382	3.3	74	-3	0.0	Jason Wood
Osvaldo Martinez	406	2.9	63	-2	0.0	Brad Hassey
Brian Barden	307	3.1	69	-1	-0.1	Kevin Baez
Jamie Romak	512	3.5	79	-2	-0.1	Matt Berger
Ian Stewart	279	3.1	71	-2	-0.1	Jose Santos
Michael Young	531	3.9	85	-11	-0.1	Alvin Dark
John Baker	167	2.4	53	-2	-0.2	Kirt Manwaring
Clint Robinson	530	4.0	89	-3	-0.2	Andy Barkett
Jeremy Hazelbaker	532	3.7	76	-2	-0.2	Tito Nanni
Sean Burroughs	220	3.1	67	-2	-0.3	Shane Turner
J.C. Boscan	247	2.0	39	-2	-0.7	Frank Charles

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Clayton Kershaw	L	26	33	33	227.3	233	54	14	172	61	57
Zack Greinke	R	30	31	31	192.0	176	44	15	167	67	63
Hyun-Jin Ryu	L	27	27	27	182.3	157	50	24	170	79	74
Dan Haren	R	33	27	27	162.7	138	30	20	159	72	67
Kenley Jansen	R	26	70	0	70.7	108	21	6	45	16	15
Josh Beckett	R	34	17	17	103.7	90	31	12	96	46	43
Chad Billingsley	R	29	16	16	97.0	77	36	8	95	45	42
Chris Capuano	L	35	25	23	131.3	107	35	16	132	64	60
Paco Rodriguez	L	23	59	0	41.7	47	16	4	33	15	14
Brian Wilson	R	32	41	0	38.3	39	14	3	32	14	13
J.P. Howell	L	31	59	0	50.7	46	21	5	44	20	19
Chris Withrow	R	25	47	0	54.3	56	26	5	46	22	21
Seth Rosin	R	25	32	15	97.0	70	32	12	98	50	47
Scott Elbert	L	28	32	0	24.7	24	9	2	22	10	9
Blake Johnson	R	29	33	10	85.0	54	33	9	87	44	41
Stephen Fife	R	27	25	22	124.0	76	53	13	131	67	63
Matt Magill	R	24	24	23	117.3	107	74	13	109	64	60
Carlos Marmol	R	31	60	0	58.3	71	38	6	46	27	25
Matt Palmer	R	35	22	19	111.3	70	52	12	115	62	58
Javy Guerra	R	28	47	0	56.3	44	23	5	55	27	25
Juan Noriega	R	23	49	0	65.3	49	23	6	64	31	29
Brandon League	R	31	63	0	60.3	40	19	5	61	29	27
Ted Lilly	L	38	10	10	47.3	31	17	7	50	28	26
Jose Dominguez	R	23	39	0	45.3	42	29	4	41	22	21
Yimi Garcia	R	23	52	0	57.3	61	23	9	52	29	27
Zach Lee	R	22	26	24	121.3	81	41	20	125	70	65
Sam Demel	R	28	45	0	52.0	45	27	7	51	29	27
Onelki Garcia	L	24	38	8	60.7	49	44	7	59	36	34
Red Patterson	R	27	37	12	101.7	77	49	14	103	59	55
Sean White	R	33	35	4	60.0	32	40	5	63	36	34
Jarret Martin	L	24	32	16	89.0	73	69	10	87	55	51
Chris Reed	L	24	21	19	100.3	63	60	12	105	62	58
Pedro Baez	R	26	50	0	61.3	41	28	9	65	37	35
Jonathan Sanchez	L	31	18	18	85.3	76	56	14	86	57	53

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Clayton Kershaw	227.3	908	25.7%	5.9%	.263	2.26	2.42	62	67
Zack Greinke	192.0	787	22.3%	5.6%	.277	2.95	2.94	82	81
Hyun-Jin Ryu	182.3	768	20.5%	6.6%	.275	3.65	3.73	101	103
Dan Haren	162.7	677	20.4%	4.4%	.288	3.71	3.49	102	96
Kenley Jansen	70.7	278	39.0%	7.7%	.281	1.91	1.96	53	54
Josh Beckett	103.7	437	20.6%	7.0%	.277	3.73	3.74	103	103
Chad Billingsley	97.0	422	18.2%	8.6%	.292	3.90	3.65	108	101
Chris Capuano	131.3	562	19.1%	6.3%	.289	4.11	3.72	114	103
Paco Rodriguez	41.7	173	27.2%	9.0%	.276	3.02	2.93	84	81
Brian Wilson	38.3	162	24.3%	8.9%	.285	3.05	3.02	84	83
J.P. Howell	50.7	216	21.2%	9.6%	.273	3.37	3.56	93	98
Chris Withrow	54.3	235	23.6%	11.2%	.279	3.48	3.77	96	104
Seth Rosin	97.0	421	16.5%	7.7%	.284	4.36	4.24	120	117
Scott Elbert	24.7	105	22.8%	8.8%	.281	3.28	3.42	91	95
Blake Johnson	85.0	375	14.3%	8.7%	.285	4.34	4.34	120	120
Stephen Fife	124.0	556	13.7%	9.5%	.292	4.57	4.57	126	126
Matt Magill	117.3	536	19.9%	13.9%	.288	4.60	4.64	127	128
Carlos Marmol	58.3	259	27.4%	14.6%	.284	3.86	4.02	107	111
Matt Palmer	111.3	501	14.0%	10.4%	.286	4.69	4.69	130	130
Javy Guerra	56.3	247	17.8%	9.2%	.289	3.99	3.91	110	108
Juan Noriega	65.3	283	17.5%	8.0%	.287	3.99	3.92	110	108
Brandon League	60.3	261	15.5%	7.2%	.286	4.03	3.72	111	103
Ted Lilly	47.3	209	14.9%	8.3%	.283	4.94	4.89	137	135
Jose Dominguez	45.3	205	20.7%	14.0%	.288	4.17	4.15	115	115
Yimi Garcia	57.3	247	24.6%	9.2%	.287	4.24	4.11	117	114
Zach Lee	121.3	530	15.4%	7.7%	.277	4.82	4.94	133	136
Sam Demel	52.0	234	19.3%	11.6%	.290	4.67	4.67	129	129
Onelki Garcia	60.7	285	17.3%	15.5%	.288	5.04	5.30	139	146
Red Patterson	101.7	458	16.8%	10.8%	.288	4.87	4.90	135	135
Sean White	60.0	283	11.2%	14.0%	.285	5.10	5.28	141	146
Jarret Martin	89.0	423	17.1%	16.4%	.290	5.16	5.27	142	146
Chris Reed	100.3	466	13.5%	12.8%	.288	5.20	5.24	144	145
Pedro Baez	61.3	278	14.6%	10.2%	.287	5.14	5.11	142	141
Jonathan Sanchez	85.3	398	19.0%	14.0%	.291	5.59	5.55	154	153

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Clayton Kershaw	227.3	9.24	2.13	0.55	161	6.6	Tom Glavine
Zack Greinke	192.0	8.24	2.06	0.72	123	3.9	Kevin Brown
Hyun-Jin Ryu	182.3	7.76	2.49	1.17	100	2.2	Allen Watson
Dan Haren	162.7	7.66	1.66	1.10	98	1.8	Kevin Tapani
Kenley Jansen	70.7	13.82	2.72	0.74	191	1.7	Francisco Rodriguez
Josh Beckett	103.7	7.84	2.67	1.08	98	1.1	Mark Gardner
Chad Billingsley	97.0	7.12	3.35	0.77	93	0.9	Jason Bere
Chris Capuano	131.3	7.35	2.42	1.12	89	0.8	Paul Splittorff
Paco Rodriguez	41.7	10.17	3.38	0.80	120	0.4	Jeff Kubenka
Brian Wilson	38.3	9.24	3.37	0.62	119	0.4	Toby Borland
J.P. Howell	50.7	8.14	3.68	0.81	108	0.3	Will Brunson
Chris Withrow	54.3	9.20	4.35	0.85	105	0.3	Brad Voyles
Seth Rosin	97.0	6.45	2.99	1.10	83	0.2	Bubba Nelson
Scott Elbert	24.7	8.73	3.35	0.88	111	0.2	Jeff Kaiser
Blake Johnson	85.0	5.69	3.46	0.90	84	0.1	Andy Mitchell
Stephen Fife	124.0	5.54	3.82	0.94	80	0.1	Sean White
Matt Magill	117.3	8.19	5.70	0.99	79	0.1	John Ericks
Carlos Marmol	58.3	10.94	5.85	0.99	94	0.0	Mark Clear
Matt Palmer	111.3	5.68	4.22	0.96	78	-0.1	Ken Hill
Javy Guerra	56.3	7.01	3.64	0.85	91	-0.1	Mike Gardner
Juan Noriega	65.3	6.82	3.12	0.89	91	-0.1	Jeremy Wedel
Brandon League	60.3	6.03	2.79	0.80	90	-0.1	Jason Karnuth
Ted Lilly	47.3	5.93	3.31	1.34	74	-0.2	Mark Langston
Jose Dominguez	45.3	8.43	5.70	0.75	87	-0.2	Josh Banks
Yimi Garcia	57.3	9.53	3.57	1.36	86	-0.3	Dustin Hermanson
Zach Lee	121.3	6.04	3.03	1.49	76	-0.3	Aaron Laffey
Sam Demel	52.0	7.81	4.70	1.21	78	-0.5	Mike James
Onelki Garcia	60.7	7.30	6.55	1.05	72	-0.5	Steve Rosenberg
Red Patterson	101.7	6.82	4.38	1.25	75	-0.5	Eddie Candelario
Sean White	60.0	4.75	5.95	0.82	71	-0.6	Jerry Johnson
Jarret Martin	89.0	7.33	7.02	0.98	71	-0.7	Miguel Asencio
Chris Reed	100.3	5.65	5.34	1.08	70	-0.7	Rich Stahl
Pedro Baez	61.3	5.95	4.17	1.33	71	-0.9	Matt Smith
Jonathan Sanchez	85.3	7.97	5.90	1.53	65	-1.0	Dan Smith

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.