2014 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Dodgers

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cleveland / Miami / Minnesota / New York AL / Philadelphia / San Diego / St. Louis.

Batters
It seems possible, given the ZiPS projections below, that Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez and Matt Kemp won’t quite be worth, on a dollar-per-WAR level, the nearly $65 million they’re owed collectively in 2014. That’s not ideal for the Dodgers, probably. The eight wins they’re forecast to produce, however, still count as eight real wins — and appear likely to be supplemented by contributions from players (Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig, most notably) who are creating lots in the way of marginal value.

Of some interest to readers will be the projection for Cuban emigre Alexander Guerrero. ZiPS is optimistic (2.5 WAR in 665 PA); Steamer, less so (0.2 WAR in 630 PA). A street fight between rival systems, is what appears to be unfolding.

Pitchers
For all of the club’s financial resources and work in the free-agent market, the Dodgers’ best player is one originally drafted by the team in 2006 — namely, left-hander Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw has produced ERAs minus* of 67 or lower each of the past three seasons. ZiPS projects that trend to continue into 2014.

*ERA minuses, is it? ERA-minuses, with a hyphen, perhaps?

After Kershaw isn’t entirely a collection of chopped livers, either. Were it, that’d be strange, of course, on account of no club has ever just allowed a chopped liver to start a baseball game, and chopped livers have no arms, and aren’t even sentient. Not miserable at pitching, however, is Zack Greinke. Less not miserable are also Josh Beckett and Dan Haren and Hyun-Jin Ryu — all of whom are probably league-average or better, according to ZiPS.

Bench/Prospects
Joc Pederson entered the 2013 season absent from most/all of the notable top-100 prospect lists. That same thing is unlikely to happen in 2014, however, after the outfielder exhibited an impressive combination of tools and skills as just a 21-year-old in Double-A. The presence of four useful outfielders already at the major-league level — including Andre Ethier, himself absent from the depth chart below — suggest that Pederson’s future with the parent club is an uncertain one. ZiPS appears to be quite optimistic, however, about how well Pederson’s skill would translate to the major-league game, were he called upon.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Dodgers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Dodgers Depth Chart

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Yasiel Puig R 23 RF 579 96 147 27 7 21 79 16 11
Hanley Ramirez R 30 SS 491 74 122 24 3 21 74 19 7
Adrian Gonzalez L 32 1B 652 75 166 33 1 22 99 1 0
Matt Kemp R 29 CF 475 73 117 21 2 20 75 15 4
Alexander Guerrero R 27 2B 665 85 156 21 1 18 82 1 6
A.J. Ellis R 33 C 409 39 85 15 2 8 47 0 1
Joc Pederson L 22 CF 531 74 122 22 4 15 63 21 10
Juan Uribe R 34 3B 346 37 77 15 1 10 47 2 0
Tim Federowicz R 26 C 415 41 87 19 1 9 44 0 0
Scott Van Slyke R 27 RF 483 57 107 24 2 15 61 6 4
Andre Ethier L 32 RF 550 63 127 29 1 13 63 2 2
Carl Crawford L 32 LF 443 61 110 23 5 9 44 15 4
Dee Gordon L 26 SS 529 61 122 14 7 1 33 41 12
Justin Sellers R 28 SS 364 38 73 17 3 6 35 3 1
Eliezer Alfonzo R 35 C 225 21 50 9 0 9 27 1 0
J.R. Towles R 30 C 164 17 33 8 1 3 18 1 1
Damaso Espino R 31 C 189 16 42 5 0 1 14 0 0
Darnell Sweeney B 23 SS 519 55 110 19 7 7 48 28 16
Mike Baxter L 29 RF 328 38 68 14 4 5 27 7 5
Jerry Hairston R 38 3B 228 18 52 10 0 2 26 0 1
Drew Butera R 30 C 187 15 37 8 1 2 16 0 0
Nick Buss L 27 RF 574 65 127 23 8 10 59 16 6
Brendan Harris R 33 3B 382 37 79 15 2 6 30 1 2
Osvaldo Martinez R 26 SS 406 41 89 15 1 3 28 7 4
Brian Barden R 33 3B 307 28 66 12 1 3 25 1 2
Jamie Romak R 28 RF 512 47 101 23 2 14 49 4 2
Ian Stewart L 29 3B 279 25 47 10 2 8 27 1 1
Michael Young R 37 3B 531 50 128 20 4 7 44 1 1
John Baker L 33 C 167 13 31 3 0 1 10 1 1
Clint Robinson L 29 1B 530 52 115 25 2 13 54 1 1
Jeremy Hazelbaker L 26 LF 532 52 112 16 3 12 43 31 10
Sean Burroughs L 33 3B 220 19 49 10 1 1 18 1 1
J.C. Boscan R 34 C 247 18 46 8 0 1 14 1 1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Yasiel Puig 579 8.5% 19.7% .201 .326 .284 .354 .485 .359
Hanley Ramirez 491 8.6% 17.3% .210 .298 .276 .342 .486 .357
Adrian Gonzalez 652 8.0% 17.0% .171 .310 .282 .339 .453 .335
Matt Kemp 475 8.6% 24.8% .199 .331 .274 .339 .473 .342
Alexander Guerrero 665 7.5% 14.4% .128 .281 .259 .324 .386 .313
A.J. Ellis 409 11.2% 18.3% .123 .285 .244 .337 .367 .306
Joc Pederson 531 7.3% 24.5% .155 .315 .253 .314 .408 .318
Juan Uribe 346 6.1% 20.5% .148 .279 .242 .293 .390 .297
Tim Federowicz 415 8.0% 26.3% .129 .300 .233 .295 .362 .285
Scott Van Slyke 483 9.7% 25.1% .170 .310 .249 .325 .420 .325
Andre Ethier 550 9.8% 19.5% .144 .308 .261 .340 .405 .319
Carl Crawford 443 5.2% 16.5% .145 .302 .266 .308 .412 .314
Dee Gordon 529 6.4% 17.8% .064 .308 .251 .303 .315 .281
Justin Sellers 364 6.9% 21.2% .125 .269 .223 .283 .348 .276
Eliezer Alfonzo 225 1.8% 27.6% .167 .279 .231 .253 .398 .284
J.R. Towles 164 6.1% 17.7% .130 .261 .226 .296 .356 .287
Damaso Espino 189 5.3% 15.3% .045 .279 .239 .282 .284 .254
Darnell Sweeney 519 5.6% 27.4% .113 .307 .229 .275 .342 .270
Mike Baxter 328 8.8% 19.2% .128 .281 .234 .317 .362 .301
Jerry Hairston 228 6.6% 10.1% .077 .272 .251 .305 .329 .277
Drew Butera 187 3.7% 19.8% .092 .257 .214 .250 .306 .243
Nick Buss 574 4.5% 18.1% .130 .278 .239 .279 .369 .281
Brendan Harris 382 6.5% 16.8% .107 .261 .228 .287 .334 .275
Osvaldo Martinez 406 4.7% 16.7% .069 .278 .235 .276 .303 .257
Brian Barden 307 5.5% 19.2% .082 .284 .234 .285 .316 .266
Jamie Romak 512 6.8% 25.4% .148 .268 .216 .278 .364 .283
Ian Stewart 279 9.3% 32.6% .153 .258 .189 .272 .341 .267
Michael Young 531 6.0% 13.4% .099 .288 .259 .303 .358 .289
John Baker 167 9.6% 25.1% .040 .280 .208 .287 .248 .244
Clint Robinson 530 7.7% 18.5% .140 .272 .238 .300 .378 .298
Jeremy Hazelbaker 532 6.0% 30.6% .119 .317 .230 .281 .349 .281
Sean Burroughs 220 5.5% 14.1% .073 .276 .238 .283 .311 .264
J.C. Boscan 247 4.9% 24.3% .048 .265 .200 .245 .248 .221

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Yasiel Puig 579 6.3 133 2 3.8 Johnny Callison
Hanley Ramirez 491 6.3 130 -5 3.8 Ken Boyer
Adrian Gonzalez 652 5.8 120 8 3.2 Harold Baines
Matt Kemp 475 6.1 125 -7 2.6 Tommie Agee
Alexander Guerrero 665 4.4 99 -1 2.5 Rich Aurilia
A.J. Ellis 409 4.3 98 1 2.4 Chris Cannizzaro
Joc Pederson 531 4.6 101 -1 2.2 Lloyd Moseby
Juan Uribe 346 4.1 90 11 2.1 Chris Truby
Tim Federowicz 415 3.8 84 1 1.6 Tom Nieto
Scott Van Slyke 483 4.9 107 1 1.6 Dustan Mohr
Andre Ethier 550 5.0 108 -2 1.5 Bruce Bochte
Carl Crawford 443 4.8 100 3 1.5 Jim Eisenreich
Dee Gordon 529 3.8 74 -4 0.9 Mickey Morandini
Justin Sellers 364 3.4 76 0 0.7 Jorge Velandia
Eliezer Alfonzo 225 3.6 80 -2 0.5 Joe Oliver
J.R. Towles 164 3.6 82 -2 0.4 Henry Blanco
Damaso Espino 189 2.8 60 1 0.2 Hector Ortiz
Darnell Sweeney 519 3.2 72 -4 0.2 Mariano Duncan
Mike Baxter 328 3.9 90 -2 0.2 Ricky Ledee
Jerry Hairston 228 3.5 78 -1 0.2 Rene Gonzales
Drew Butera 187 2.6 55 1 0.1 Charlie Greene
Nick Buss 574 3.7 80 1 0.0 Benjamin Copeland
Brendan Harris 382 3.3 74 -3 0.0 Jason Wood
Osvaldo Martinez 406 2.9 63 -2 0.0 Brad Hassey
Brian Barden 307 3.1 69 -1 -0.1 Kevin Baez
Jamie Romak 512 3.5 79 -2 -0.1 Matt Berger
Ian Stewart 279 3.1 71 -2 -0.1 Jose Santos
Michael Young 531 3.9 85 -11 -0.1 Alvin Dark
John Baker 167 2.4 53 -2 -0.2 Kirt Manwaring
Clint Robinson 530 4.0 89 -3 -0.2 Andy Barkett
Jeremy Hazelbaker 532 3.7 76 -2 -0.2 Tito Nanni
Sean Burroughs 220 3.1 67 -2 -0.3 Shane Turner
J.C. Boscan 247 2.0 39 -2 -0.7 Frank Charles

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Clayton Kershaw L 26 33 33 227.3 233 54 14 172 61 57
Zack Greinke R 30 31 31 192.0 176 44 15 167 67 63
Hyun-Jin Ryu L 27 27 27 182.3 157 50 24 170 79 74
Dan Haren R 33 27 27 162.7 138 30 20 159 72 67
Kenley Jansen R 26 70 0 70.7 108 21 6 45 16 15
Josh Beckett R 34 17 17 103.7 90 31 12 96 46 43
Chad Billingsley R 29 16 16 97.0 77 36 8 95 45 42
Chris Capuano L 35 25 23 131.3 107 35 16 132 64 60
Paco Rodriguez L 23 59 0 41.7 47 16 4 33 15 14
Brian Wilson R 32 41 0 38.3 39 14 3 32 14 13
J.P. Howell L 31 59 0 50.7 46 21 5 44 20 19
Chris Withrow R 25 47 0 54.3 56 26 5 46 22 21
Seth Rosin R 25 32 15 97.0 70 32 12 98 50 47
Scott Elbert L 28 32 0 24.7 24 9 2 22 10 9
Blake Johnson R 29 33 10 85.0 54 33 9 87 44 41
Stephen Fife R 27 25 22 124.0 76 53 13 131 67 63
Matt Magill R 24 24 23 117.3 107 74 13 109 64 60
Carlos Marmol R 31 60 0 58.3 71 38 6 46 27 25
Matt Palmer R 35 22 19 111.3 70 52 12 115 62 58
Javy Guerra R 28 47 0 56.3 44 23 5 55 27 25
Juan Noriega R 23 49 0 65.3 49 23 6 64 31 29
Brandon League R 31 63 0 60.3 40 19 5 61 29 27
Ted Lilly L 38 10 10 47.3 31 17 7 50 28 26
Jose Dominguez R 23 39 0 45.3 42 29 4 41 22 21
Yimi Garcia R 23 52 0 57.3 61 23 9 52 29 27
Zach Lee R 22 26 24 121.3 81 41 20 125 70 65
Sam Demel R 28 45 0 52.0 45 27 7 51 29 27
Onelki Garcia L 24 38 8 60.7 49 44 7 59 36 34
Red Patterson R 27 37 12 101.7 77 49 14 103 59 55
Sean White R 33 35 4 60.0 32 40 5 63 36 34
Jarret Martin L 24 32 16 89.0 73 69 10 87 55 51
Chris Reed L 24 21 19 100.3 63 60 12 105 62 58
Pedro Baez R 26 50 0 61.3 41 28 9 65 37 35
Jonathan Sanchez L 31 18 18 85.3 76 56 14 86 57 53

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Clayton Kershaw 227.3 908 25.7% 5.9% .263 2.26 2.42 62 67
Zack Greinke 192.0 787 22.3% 5.6% .277 2.95 2.94 82 81
Hyun-Jin Ryu 182.3 768 20.5% 6.6% .275 3.65 3.73 101 103
Dan Haren 162.7 677 20.4% 4.4% .288 3.71 3.49 102 96
Kenley Jansen 70.7 278 39.0% 7.7% .281 1.91 1.96 53 54
Josh Beckett 103.7 437 20.6% 7.0% .277 3.73 3.74 103 103
Chad Billingsley 97.0 422 18.2% 8.6% .292 3.90 3.65 108 101
Chris Capuano 131.3 562 19.1% 6.3% .289 4.11 3.72 114 103
Paco Rodriguez 41.7 173 27.2% 9.0% .276 3.02 2.93 84 81
Brian Wilson 38.3 162 24.3% 8.9% .285 3.05 3.02 84 83
J.P. Howell 50.7 216 21.2% 9.6% .273 3.37 3.56 93 98
Chris Withrow 54.3 235 23.6% 11.2% .279 3.48 3.77 96 104
Seth Rosin 97.0 421 16.5% 7.7% .284 4.36 4.24 120 117
Scott Elbert 24.7 105 22.8% 8.8% .281 3.28 3.42 91 95
Blake Johnson 85.0 375 14.3% 8.7% .285 4.34 4.34 120 120
Stephen Fife 124.0 556 13.7% 9.5% .292 4.57 4.57 126 126
Matt Magill 117.3 536 19.9% 13.9% .288 4.60 4.64 127 128
Carlos Marmol 58.3 259 27.4% 14.6% .284 3.86 4.02 107 111
Matt Palmer 111.3 501 14.0% 10.4% .286 4.69 4.69 130 130
Javy Guerra 56.3 247 17.8% 9.2% .289 3.99 3.91 110 108
Juan Noriega 65.3 283 17.5% 8.0% .287 3.99 3.92 110 108
Brandon League 60.3 261 15.5% 7.2% .286 4.03 3.72 111 103
Ted Lilly 47.3 209 14.9% 8.3% .283 4.94 4.89 137 135
Jose Dominguez 45.3 205 20.7% 14.0% .288 4.17 4.15 115 115
Yimi Garcia 57.3 247 24.6% 9.2% .287 4.24 4.11 117 114
Zach Lee 121.3 530 15.4% 7.7% .277 4.82 4.94 133 136
Sam Demel 52.0 234 19.3% 11.6% .290 4.67 4.67 129 129
Onelki Garcia 60.7 285 17.3% 15.5% .288 5.04 5.30 139 146
Red Patterson 101.7 458 16.8% 10.8% .288 4.87 4.90 135 135
Sean White 60.0 283 11.2% 14.0% .285 5.10 5.28 141 146
Jarret Martin 89.0 423 17.1% 16.4% .290 5.16 5.27 142 146
Chris Reed 100.3 466 13.5% 12.8% .288 5.20 5.24 144 145
Pedro Baez 61.3 278 14.6% 10.2% .287 5.14 5.11 142 141
Jonathan Sanchez 85.3 398 19.0% 14.0% .291 5.59 5.55 154 153

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Clayton Kershaw 227.3 9.24 2.13 0.55 161 6.6 Tom Glavine
Zack Greinke 192.0 8.24 2.06 0.72 123 3.9 Kevin Brown
Hyun-Jin Ryu 182.3 7.76 2.49 1.17 100 2.2 Allen Watson
Dan Haren 162.7 7.66 1.66 1.10 98 1.8 Kevin Tapani
Kenley Jansen 70.7 13.82 2.72 0.74 191 1.7 Francisco Rodriguez
Josh Beckett 103.7 7.84 2.67 1.08 98 1.1 Mark Gardner
Chad Billingsley 97.0 7.12 3.35 0.77 93 0.9 Jason Bere
Chris Capuano 131.3 7.35 2.42 1.12 89 0.8 Paul Splittorff
Paco Rodriguez 41.7 10.17 3.38 0.80 120 0.4 Jeff Kubenka
Brian Wilson 38.3 9.24 3.37 0.62 119 0.4 Toby Borland
J.P. Howell 50.7 8.14 3.68 0.81 108 0.3 Will Brunson
Chris Withrow 54.3 9.20 4.35 0.85 105 0.3 Brad Voyles
Seth Rosin 97.0 6.45 2.99 1.10 83 0.2 Bubba Nelson
Scott Elbert 24.7 8.73 3.35 0.88 111 0.2 Jeff Kaiser
Blake Johnson 85.0 5.69 3.46 0.90 84 0.1 Andy Mitchell
Stephen Fife 124.0 5.54 3.82 0.94 80 0.1 Sean White
Matt Magill 117.3 8.19 5.70 0.99 79 0.1 John Ericks
Carlos Marmol 58.3 10.94 5.85 0.99 94 0.0 Mark Clear
Matt Palmer 111.3 5.68 4.22 0.96 78 -0.1 Ken Hill
Javy Guerra 56.3 7.01 3.64 0.85 91 -0.1 Mike Gardner
Juan Noriega 65.3 6.82 3.12 0.89 91 -0.1 Jeremy Wedel
Brandon League 60.3 6.03 2.79 0.80 90 -0.1 Jason Karnuth
Ted Lilly 47.3 5.93 3.31 1.34 74 -0.2 Mark Langston
Jose Dominguez 45.3 8.43 5.70 0.75 87 -0.2 Josh Banks
Yimi Garcia 57.3 9.53 3.57 1.36 86 -0.3 Dustin Hermanson
Zach Lee 121.3 6.04 3.03 1.49 76 -0.3 Aaron Laffey
Sam Demel 52.0 7.81 4.70 1.21 78 -0.5 Mike James
Onelki Garcia 60.7 7.30 6.55 1.05 72 -0.5 Steve Rosenberg
Red Patterson 101.7 6.82 4.38 1.25 75 -0.5 Eddie Candelario
Sean White 60.0 4.75 5.95 0.82 71 -0.6 Jerry Johnson
Jarret Martin 89.0 7.33 7.02 0.98 71 -0.7 Miguel Asencio
Chris Reed 100.3 5.65 5.34 1.08 70 -0.7 Rich Stahl
Pedro Baez 61.3 5.95 4.17 1.33 71 -0.9 Matt Smith
Jonathan Sanchez 85.3 7.97 5.90 1.53 65 -1.0 Dan Smith

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2014 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Dodgers by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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triple_r
Member

Why aren’t the IP numbers in traditional form?

Ben
Guest
Ben

.3 signifies 1/3 IP, .7 being 2/3 if I am not mistaken